Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[Umlaut]

Addendum to 2198: I used but didn't explicitly state the assumption that there aren't two killing roles. If you drop that assumption, everything is the same except that TTTCCMM is less probable (~35%) and there are five more possible setups.

[Titus]

Um, if Titus doesn't know Dave claimed vig that's

another

knowledge slip, since she immediately attributed the kill to a vig.

Of course. Brian was scumread. I don't see an SK here, unless it happens to be Dave.

We can prove me wrong or not. You can pretend my familiarity with this setup is knowledge slips or not. I watch open setups and I watch people. We can do this dance again, or you can save yourself a headache and sheep me.

[RoryMK]

Titus, if there's no SK, Dave is a vig. You realize that, right??

[Titus]

Titus, if there's no SK, Dave is a vig. You realize that, right??

Right. My presumption was that Almost Dave as scum, but if Dave is as you say a claimed Vig then Dave most likely isn't group scum, which makes my inital assumption of a vig less likely to be accurate.

[Titus]

That also explains why Almost was willing to "bus" Dave but Dave was not willing to "bus" Almost. Almost wasn't bussing and Dave had zero desire to piss off the scumteam.

[Titus]

After all, if Dave's a vig, he shoots me, no questions asked. I'm a claimed VT and he's tunnelled on me for so long. Yet, he doesn't shoot me. Nope. He needs a place to be safe. Dave shooting anyone but me doesn't make sense for a vig.

[Titus]

The problem is, I need one more scum with that theory and need to determine who they are.

I think it's time for a letters massclaim, but with the last mason(s) claiming VT to shield their identity. Let's put this setup to bed shall we?

[Titus]

On paper TTTCCMM is actually the single most probable setup (~44%), but it implies a serial killer who decided not to kill n1, which I think is itself pretty unlikely.

You've left out both shooting the same target or a doctor heal.

[davesaz]

Titus, you leave out the most likely reason for you to still be alive. It happens to actually be the reason.
Maybe it's too obvious because you happen to be the target of my strong but not very reliable scumread.
I'm town and I trust others reads more than my own.

[Umlaut]

You've left out both shooting the same target or a doctor heal.

I was explicitly talking about a setup in which there is no doctor. (You're right that I left out the possibility someone was double-targeted.)

We can prove me wrong or not. You can pretend my familiarity with this setup is knowledge slips or not. I watch open setups and I watch people. We can do this dance again, or you can save yourself a headache and sheep me.

Well, I do love to dance.

VOTE: Titus

Looking back, the only reason I thought Titus couldn't be scum was that she was on the Gamma lynch, but I can't give infinite credit for that. The way she thought MathSkies was absolutely, unquestionably a vig shot up until she was reminded it was Dave, and then said "never mind it's SK," makes it seem like she's more interested in getting Dave roped than she is in updating on the evidence. And the idea that she knew it was a vig shot even while complaining that it was a bad shot is more than I'm willing to swallow.

Also, everyone ignore Titus' massclaim suggestion. There are excellent reasons to avoid further role claims until Dave has confirmed or disconfirmed that he has more shots. This is independent of her alignment: Titus pushed a premature and harmful massclaim as town in my very first game on MS, so her appeals to self-expertise here mean nothing to me.

[RoryMK]

After all, if Dave's a vig, he shoots me, no questions asked. I'm a claimed VT and he's tunnelled on me for so long. Yet, he doesn't shoot me. Nope. He needs a place to be safe. Dave shooting anyone but me doesn't make sense for a vig.

yeah, that's not how this works.

[Titus]

After all, if Dave's a vig, he shoots me, no questions asked. I'm a claimed VT and he's tunnelled on me for so long. Yet, he doesn't shoot me. Nope. He needs a place to be safe. Dave shooting anyone but me doesn't make sense for a vig.

yeah, that's not how this works.

It's exactly how it works. Yet Dave is reliable to only pass the buck and is afraid to actually stick his neck out. But ok, fuck it up again.

[ThinkBig]

VC moved to the next page top.

[RoryMK]

After all, if Dave's a vig, he shoots me, no questions asked. I'm a claimed VT and he's tunnelled on me for so long. Yet, he doesn't shoot me. Nope. He needs a place to be safe. Dave shooting anyone but me doesn't make sense for a vig.

yeah, that's not how this works.

It's exactly how it works. Yet Dave is reliable to only pass the buck and is afraid to actually stick his neck out. But ok, fuck it up again.

There is no way we're lynching a claimed vig. I feel like we're back in the Pokemon game were you stubbornly kept pushing for a lynch on pretty much confirmed town as scum.

[Titus]

After all, if Dave's a vig, he shoots me, no questions asked. I'm a claimed VT and he's tunnelled on me for so long. Yet, he doesn't shoot me. Nope. He needs a place to be safe. Dave shooting anyone but me doesn't make sense for a vig.

yeah, that's not how this works.

It's exactly how it works. Yet Dave is reliable to only pass the buck and is afraid to actually stick his neck out. But ok, fuck it up again.

There is no way we're lynching a claimed vig. I feel like we're back in the Pokemon game were you stubbornly kept pushing for a lynch on pretty much confirmed town as scum.

He isn't confirmed town at all. He can claim either 1 shot and be exposed by letters as sk eventually (which means no lynch today) or full claim and likely be outed as sk.

[Almost50]

I'll have you know that Titus' persistence to include me in every possible scum team is pinging me hard. She is one of the very few who can read through me, and she knows my play as either alignment. She has seen the good and the bad in my play as either alignment, and there's NO WAY she is misreading me here.

So, I'll make you all an offer you can't refuse (I think): LYNCH ME. When I do flip Town, lynch Titus + Narna. That's the scum team I see right now, with Titus being the GF (and the thus the deviation from her meta of not bussing). If the game still doesn't end THEN dave is a SK. (If he is a full Vig he should shoot in Titus/Narna tonight).

I think Gamma claiming a 1-shot RB was to out the RB if any. It helped scum a LOT to decide which setup this might be. I'm not sure if they already identified the Cop or if it was a strike of luck.

Can you do this, please?

[RoryMK]

not lynching town to prove a point. Let's just kill Titus and be done with it.

Also dave isn't claiming either.

[Almost50]

I'm down for a Titus lynch

VOTE: Titus

My plan (of lynching me first) helps eliminate the WIFOM though. I'm being used as a distraction, so it could very well help those in doubt to see the light.

[Almost50]

^^ L-1, btw.

[Umlaut]

Me, davesaz, RoryMK, Almost50.

I am not thrilled with the composition of this wagon.

Not unvoting but let's at least give everyone else a chance to weigh in before anyone hammers.

[Titus]

Hmph, was I wrong on you Rory? Either you or Umlaut.

This has been nothing but posturing from you both.

Also, I think my entire wagon minus Rory is those not voting Gamma. (Needs verifying)

[Umlaut]

I'll have you know that Titus' persistence to include me in every possible scum team is pinging me hard. She is one of the very few who can read through me, and she knows my play as either alignment. She has seen the good and the bad in my play as either alignment, and there's NO WAY she is misreading me here.

So, I'll make you all an offer you can't refuse (I think): LYNCH ME. When I do flip Town, lynch Titus + Narna. That's the scum team I see right now, with Titus being the GF (and the thus the deviation from her meta of not bussing). If the game still doesn't end THEN dave is a SK. (If he is a full Vig he should shoot in Titus/Narna tonight).

I think Gamma claiming a 1-shot RB was to out the RB if any. It helped scum a LOT to decide which setup this might be. I'm not sure if they already identified the Cop or if it was a strike of luck.

Can you do this, please?

I really don't understand how you are coming to most of these conclusions.

Why do you think Titus is GF and Narna a goon, and not the other way around?
Why do you suspect Narna in the first place?
What does Titus or Narna's alignment have to do with Dave's?

Meta question for others: I've seen Almost make the "lynch me" offer as scum. Has anyone seen him do it as town?

[Umlaut]

Hmph, was I wrong on you Rory? Either you or Umlaut.

This has been nothing but posturing from you both.

Also, I think my entire wagon minus Rory is those not voting Gamma. (Needs verifying)

If I needed more confirmation that Titus' suspect list is just a list of people who scumread her, this is it.

[Titus]

I'll have you know that Titus' persistence to include me in every possible scum team is pinging me hard. She is one of the very few who can read through me, and she knows my play as either alignment. She has seen the good and the bad in my play as either alignment, and there's NO WAY she is misreading me here.

So, I'll make you all an offer you can't refuse (I think): LYNCH ME. When I do flip Town, lynch Titus + Narna. That's the scum team I see right now, with Titus being the GF (and the thus the deviation from her meta of not bussing). If the game still doesn't end THEN dave is a SK. (If he is a full Vig he should shoot in Titus/Narna tonight).

I think Gamma claiming a 1-shot RB was to out the RB if any. It helped scum a LOT to decide which setup this might be. I'm not sure if they already identified the Cop or if it was a strike of luck.

Can you do this, please?

I really don't understand how you are coming to most of these conclusions.

Why do you think Titus is GF and Narna a goon, and not the other way around?
Why do you suspect Narna in the first place?
What does Titus or Narna's alignment have to do with Dave's?

Meta question for others: I've seen Almost make the "lynch me" offer as scum. Has anyone seen him do it as town?

No but I have never seen it. Scum do it if they'll feel they will lose with a particular slot alive. Town do it if they feel player X is unconvinable. I can't really see me being unconvincable here.

[ThinkBig]

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