I mean, I ain't the one in question but whats wrong with Gut-reads?
Nothing, but you shouldn't trust gut over evidence when evidence is available, and I want people to start listening to my reasoning. Also, gutreads tend to go wrong on people playing the way Tes is.
In post 652, Something_Smart wrote:Nothing, but you shouldn't trust gut over evidence when evidence is available, and I want people to start listening to my reasoning. Also, gutreads tend to go wrong on people playing the way Tes is.
Unless your evidence is a cop everything else has the same value, Evidence is evidence when its strong. We don't have strong evidence of any kind of either flipped scum or flipped town to follow. We are headless right now. I'd take gut.
I mean, I ain't the one in question but whats wrong with Gut-reads?
Nothing, but you shouldn't trust gut over evidence when evidence is available, and I want people to start listening to my reasoning. Also, gutreads tend to go wrong on people playing the way Tes is.
You didn't mention my other reasons: he hasn't really scum hunted, he's been OMGUSing a lot, he deflects all the time instead of making actual arguments and he derailed the entire game with bs arguments to the town from deciding on a lynch. If you put all this stuff together it doesn't feel townie. Of course i trust my read on him over yours
I mean, I ain't the one in question but whats wrong with Gut-reads?
Nothing, but you shouldn't trust gut over evidence when evidence is available, and I want people to start listening to my reasoning. Also, gutreads tend to go wrong on people playing the way Tes is.
You didn't mention my other reasons: he hasn't really scum hunted, he's been OMGUSing a lot, he deflects all the time instead of making actual arguments and he derailed the entire game with bs arguments to keep the town from deciding on a lynch. If you put all this stuff together it doesn't feel townie. Of course i trust my read on him over yours
In post 652, Something_Smart wrote:Nothing, but you shouldn't trust gut over evidence when evidence is available, and I want people to start listening to my reasoning. Also, gutreads tend to go wrong on people playing the way Tes is.
Unless your evidence is a cop everything else has the same value, Evidence is evidence when its strong. We don't have strong evidence of any kind of either flipped scum or flipped town to follow. We are headless right now. I'd take gut.
So my reasoned and supported analysis has the same weight as someone just going "he feels like scum"?
In post 654, BlackStar wrote:You didn't mention my other reasons: he hasn't really scum hunted, he's been OMGUSing a lot, he deflects all the time instead of making actual arguments and he derailed the entire game with bs arguments to keep the town from deciding on a lynch. If you put all this stuff together it doesn't feel townie. Of course i trust my read on him over yours
You said yourself that it's just gut to determine if someone is scumhunting or not.
OMGUS is not a scumtell.
Derailing the game was a team effort and you're begging the question by assuming that it was motivated by trying to keep town from deciding on a lynch (especially when an even more scum-motivated thing would be to push a mislynch!) rather than just trying to make points and hunt for scum.
And why do you trust your read on him over mine? Because of the minuscule chance that he and I are scum together?
In post 652, Something_Smart wrote:Nothing, but you shouldn't trust gut over evidence when evidence is available, and I want people to start listening to my reasoning. Also, gutreads tend to go wrong on people playing the way Tes is.
Unless your evidence is a cop everything else has the same value, Evidence is evidence when its strong. We don't have strong evidence of any kind of either flipped scum or flipped town to follow. We are headless right now. I'd take gut.
So my reasoned and supported analysis has the same weight as someone just going "he feels like scum"?
In post 654, BlackStar wrote:You didn't mention my other reasons: he hasn't really scum hunted, he's been OMGUSing a lot, he deflects all the time instead of making actual arguments and he derailed the entire game with bs arguments to keep the town from deciding on a lynch. If you put all this stuff together it doesn't feel townie. Of course i trust my read on him over yours
You said yourself that it's just gut to determine if someone is scumhunting or not.
OMGUS is not a scumtell.
Derailing the game was a team effort and you're begging the question by assuming that it was motivated by trying to keep town from deciding on a lynch (especially when an even more scum-motivated thing would be to push a mislynch!) rather than just trying to make points and hunt for scum.
And why do you trust your read on him over mine? Because of the minuscule chance that he and I are scum together?
That's not what I said about scumhunting at all. Try actually reading my posts from here out
From what I've seen, OMGUS is the only reason he's been calling me and sonia scum
He was the leading wagon and as soon as that happened he started losing it and went into full melt down mode for like 15 pages. Now he's no longer the leading wagon. I don't think its a crazy theory
All you've said is that he asked you a lot of questions early on and that made you believe that he's really trying to sort people. That's kind of flimsy because its easy for scum to fake that. Also, I don't remember you giving any other reasons for belieiving that he's town so I'm still not sure why you're so confident
In post 656, Something_Smart wrote:So my reasoned and supported analysis has the same weight as someone just going "he feels like scum"?
I didn't say its the same, I just said you can't discount gut feeling, I dont know if the guy is really having it or not but if I have a gut feeling there is usually for a reason.
In post 633, Something_Smart wrote:I will say that I saw through Tes's gambit immediately and refrained from saying anything so as not to ruin it (although I didn't expect BlackStar to fall for it). And honestly at this point I'm going to say that Tes is either scum playing the most insane refuge in audacity strategy I've ever seen or he's just town honestly trying increasingly desperate measures to get his points across. The way to think about it is this: scum are very in control of how they come across because that is their main goal: to come across in a towny way. For town, controlling how they come across is secondary to scumhunting and so the vast majority of the time, people trying weird methods like what he's doing are inexperienced town. I've done it several times myself. And it makes for a very juicy-looking mislynch target for scum.
In post 633, Something_Smart wrote:I will say that I saw through Tes's gambit immediately and refrained from saying anything so as not to ruin it (although I didn't expect BlackStar to fall for it). And honestly at this point I'm going to say that Tes is either scum playing the most insane refuge in audacity strategy I've ever seen or he's just town honestly trying increasingly desperate measures to get his points across. The way to think about it is this: scum are very in control of how they come across because that is their main goal: to come across in a towny way. For town, controlling how they come across is secondary to scumhunting and so the vast majority of the time, people trying weird methods like what he's doing are inexperienced town. I've done it several times myself. And it makes for a very juicy-looking mislynch target for scum.
He's made it clear that he wants me lynched. How better to accomplish this goal than to trick me into saying something that makes me look like a hypocrite? Its NAI because anyone could do it from either alignment.
It's difficult for me to put into words what I dislike about that, but I'll try.
It's something along the lines of, Tes has posted more and has therefore given people more things to potentially scumread him for. Not_Mafia has given virtually nothing and therefore in a comparison of who has done a greater number of scummy things I'd understand if Tes wins.
But that ignores first of all the fact that Not_Mafia has given no content to sort, which implies that he has no interest in being sorted. Furthermore, every post made by anybody helps the town because it gives townies more to analyze. (Yes this is an oversimplification but the point stands.) So just by posting, Tes has made himself more open to being read than Not_Mafia has.
it's partially a policy lynch. But it's not just a policy lynch. If anything it's closer to a utility lynch, but I do still believe that he has a decent chance of flipping scum.
Another thing to consider is, if you have him as null now, what would it take for you to be able to read him? Because his content isn't going to improve.
In post 670, Something_Smart wrote:It's difficult for me to put into words what I dislike about that, but I'll try.
It's something along the lines of, Tes has posted more and has therefore given people more things to potentially scumread him for. Not_Mafia has given virtually nothing and therefore in a comparison of who has done a greater number of scummy things I'd understand if Tes wins.
But that ignores first of all the fact that Not_Mafia has given no content to sort, which implies that he has no interest in being sorted. Furthermore, every post made by anybody helps the town because it gives townies more to analyze. (Yes this is an oversimplification but the point stands.) So just by posting, Tes has made himself more open to being read than Not_Mafia has.
it's partially a policy lynch. But it's not just a policy lynch. If anything it's closer to a utility lynch, but I do still believe that he has a decent chance of flipping scum.
Another thing to consider is, if you have him as null now, what would it take for you to be able to read him? Because his content isn't going to improve.
I get what you're saying, but when people lynch someone solely because they haven't offered much content it almost never works out well. It makes more sense to lynch Tes than Not Mafia. There's more evidence against him and regardless of what alignment he flips we'll gain valuable information. If he's scum we can look back at what everyone has said about him and try to find his partner. If he's town then we can try to guess who on his wagon was scum. Either way, his lynch is more helpful to us than that of someone who hasn't said much. And it doesn't make sense to lynch someone who isn't your top scum read. I don't know what it will take for me to read not mafia, but him posting more would help. What did you mean when you said "utility lynch"?
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
