OPEN 687: JUNGLE OLIGARCHY (GAME OVER)

[Flubbernugget]

I'm not seeing how the deathlist relates to your percentage calculation

[Flubbernugget]

Oh whoops I got your percent and hells mixed up

[Flubbernugget]

I'm still here to win 100% of the games I play and if you are too you'll look at reads over probabilities

[Realeo]

I'm not seeing how the deathlist relates to your percentage calculation

The entire argument of Dave is "There must be at least 1 scum, it's not me, so HM" so I debunked that with math.

[Realeo]

I'm still here to win 100% of the games I play and if you are too you'll look at reads over probabilities

Exactly the point! Which is why I dissed Dave for that probabilistic scumreading!

[Realeo]

I'm not quite sure what is Dunn v Gamma D2 banter is all about. I thought it was me being stupid. I was wrong. I still don't understand.

[Realeo]

Also, Flubber
You're that convinced that since i screwed up on a vote, and didn't see it until days later
That i'm scum? Because of that one thing?
Even though the reasons had nothing to do with Realeo?
Even though I explained why?
You think this is a scumfail?

YO, HM, my questions.

[Flubbernugget]

I'm not seeing how the deathlist relates to your percentage calculation

The entire argument of Dave is "There must be at least 1 scum, it's not me, so HM" so I debunked that with math.

Do you think hellfire is town?

[Hellfire Missile]

You are also scum for defending yourself when you hit prodding range and then doing nothing else

wut

please explain
i don't understand

[Hellfire Missile]

Also, Flubber
You're that convinced that since i screwed up on a vote, and didn't see it until days later
That i'm scum? Because of that one thing?
Even though the reasons had nothing to do with Realeo?
Even though I explained why?
You think this is a scumfail?

YO, HM, my questions.

i dont see any questions
I went and CTRL + F'd for ? marks
was i doing something wrong

[Hellfire Missile]

Someone is almost due to a prod.

howironic

this is the only thing where i've been close to being prodded
i read joe and shiqf
that's a thing i did
unless you're going for something else

[shiqf]

Catching up

[FireScreamer]

Ok I'm here in full force now, sorry guys

Heard that before.

[Hellfire Missile]

Catching up

COUGH COUGH PRODGE COUGH

I'm pretty sure you're getting replaced tho

[Hellfire Missile]

Catching up

COUGH COUGH PRODGE COUGH

I'm pretty sure you're getting replaced tho

I mean soon
If you actually get into the game
Eh

[Realeo]

I'm not seeing how the deathlist relates to your percentage calculation

The entire argument of Dave is "There must be at least 1 scum, it's not me, so HM" so I debunked that with math.

Do you think hellfire is town?

Before HM wall of post below your question, null.

After HM wall of post below your question, between scum null and null.

[Realeo]

@HellfireMissile: With javajoe lynch flipping town, do you still townread me?

[FireScreamer]

For people (KMD) asking what my notmafiaread on Realeo is I think total obliviousness to the idea that Mafia could put themselves on the list shows such a lack of thought about mafia motivations as to be hard to fake.

I guess that extends to Theta as well.
UNVOTE:

[Theta Alpine]

Catching up

COUGH COUGH PRODGE COUGH

I'm pretty sure you're getting replaced tho

for those of you who are not aware
the mod has told us that shiqf did not receive a day-start message and thus has been given a refresh on their prod timer

[davesaz]

Realeo, my expectation that there is some kind of scum on the kill list is

behavioral

, not math.
This is coming from someone with a very deep background in game theory who observed mafia's every move the only other time the setup has been played.
They played the other 2 factions like an orchestra btw. Though wolves were at a disadvantage after losing one to a d1 lynch.

I will admit I'm assuming that mafia can come up with the best lists, with 3 of them working on the problem. The chance that they might not is why I'm not explaining it openly. Along with the chance that wolves might not know the best move given mafia's list.

I should probably just let the debate go. I have a soft spot for arguing when people claim my logic is wrong instead of moving along.

[Theta Alpine]

i have also not been properly discussing it in order to avoid teaching them how to beat town

[Gamma Emerald]

Does explaining in detail help mafia with their list selection strategy?
I'd prefer to hold off unless people start derping.

In a nutshell though, I know I'm town, and it's very likely that some kind of scum is in the list. Therefore the scum in the list has to be Hellfire.

explain very likely to someone who can do the math and give a 2 in 7 chance assuming that you are town and mafia did not put any of their own in the list

Your error is in assuming mafia would not want/need to put one of their own on the list. Further explanation probably helps both scum teams.

TBH I'd assume they'd do so for one list for the whole game
I have a further idea but I'm withholding it until I see reason to.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm still here to win 100% of the games I play and if you are too you'll look at reads over probabilities

Already missed your mark
Mini Normal 1861

[Theta Alpine]

okay seriously no more talking about the night list/kill
that leads only to wifom

on another note
shiqf where are you at in catching up and what are your thoughts right now

[Gamma Emerald]

We do have a clue from the the death list: At least one of the mafia goons is an active poster.

Hellfire Missile fucked up on the final 24 hours of D1 and goes under radar before it due to V/LA. The most probable interpretation is Hellfire Missile was under radar, not in the death list, then HellFireMissile fucked up and within 24 hours an active player updated the death list of mafia.

Good point, or maybe it's Flubber