Sparkles protected NJAC
You protected Gamma
Alban protected Creature
What reasons did these 3 get protected?
I provided my reasons twice - feel free to ISO me.
Alban described his reason here - viewtopic.php?p=9282797#p9282797
Sparkles ducked the question and Mutton is just now remembering that he was going to bug him about that to avoid hypocrisy
In post 866, Vedith wrote:If we Lynch in any group it should be from Sparkles, you or Alban, right?
I disagree, but that is at least more logical than lynching within the protects.
In post 867, MuttonChopMagic wrote:if you idiots refuse to read any of hellfires other games, keep ignoring me and mislynch him that's on you
but after that, sheep better fucking be roped too
Which of his other games are convincing you this is his town meta exactly?
Your answer here that I bolded is what I want elaboration on.
Tbh, I like your reply pretty much saying I hear you but I have no idea.
In post 925, Titus wrote:Your answer here that I bolded is what I want elaboration on.
Tbh, I like your reply pretty much saying I hear you but I have no idea.
Is there part of my case you don't understand/see?
If it's the 'entire thing' is what you're looking for an explanation of wagon position scumhunting?
Narrow it down in any way?
In post 925, Titus wrote:Your answer here that I bolded is what I want elaboration on.
Tbh, I like your reply pretty much saying I hear you but I have no idea.
Is there part of my case you don't understand/see?
If it's the 'entire thing' is what you're looking for an explanation of wagon position scumhunting?
Narrow it down in any way?
Yes, I want you to explain your wagoning positioning theory and why it says Hellfire scum.
This is the wagon on CommKnight and the other wagons at the time (of note there was a Sesq wagon also shortly before the CommKnight one sprang up, it looked like this;
Sesq (4): Hellfire Missile, Gamma Emerald, Cooperative Sheep, Agent Sparkles, [which means that literally the entire wagon except for Gamma shifted off Sesq to make the CommKnight wagon happen, which makes Sesq only really likely scum in a world with Hellfire or Spakles (or me if you're an outside observer) and also makes Gamma likely more town, and almost assured town if Sesq is scum.
Then we go to basic wagon theory.
Basic wagon theory is that scum vote to lynch town, or to get bus credit if needed, whereas town fall onto a wagon for a variety of reasons.
Meanwhile scum are motivated in their maneuvers and also know who their partners are, and therefore tend to have their voting patterns have...well, a pattern.
With the awareness that scum have a pattern to voting that town lack, and with a bit of analysis (I can always try to hunt through Mafia Discussion for it if you need to reference) we come to a conclusion that statistically it is highly improbable that zero scum voted to lynch a town player. Taking that info further we can also find that the general expectation in a game with this scum vtown ratio to tend to generate 1-3 scum on the wagon, with one or more being highly probable with a decreasing frequency moving on as we add more expected assured scum.
Therefore, it is safe to assume that 1, maybe 2 scum (and with an eye squint 3, but though that is more likely than 0 I don't think it's a safe assumption) are present on the wagon.
Okay, so at that point you also need to asses random variables - in this wagon I have followed the following conclusions of my own, that feel generally supported by all the evidence I have ever seen.
-With 1-2 scum on a wagon it is generally true that they don't vote next to each other and want to 'space out' their votes.
-With accepted town randomness it is generally true that there would then be an 'early' scum vote and a 'late' scum vote.
-One can locate scum through a combo of ruling out town reads and also assessing motivation (reasons) for placing a vote on the wagon and looking for the iffiest.
So, let's go back to our wagon;
CommKnight (7)
: Agent Sparkles, Cooperative Sheep, NotTheRealPaul, Sesq, MuttonChopMagic, Hellfire Missile, LunaeCinere,
Sparkles is the wagon starter and a claimed Doc (the first at that) and thus is, guardedly, a reasonable rule out on both points.
I rule myself out.
I have a decent town read on NTRP.
Sesq is the counter wagon, but if I was to wager on an early scum he'd be my bet, but it feels dicey as a guess.
Mutton was a town lean coming into the day, and I guardedly stand by that assessment after his push on me as it somewhat vibes me as stubborn town who thinks they're right rather than scum being desperate, though I'll admit I find myself internally debating this every day, but...eh.
Hellfire is a non-entity who had a bad reason for his vote and has supplied no real thoughts on the game.
Lunae's vote was also bad, but I personally feel that scum prefer a spot prior to hammer.
So on that wagon my logic says Hellfire > Lunae > Sesq/Mutton though I may be conflicted on the Lunae/Sesq positions and neither slot is bothering to do much so it's hard to get a sort feel for them. Thus, at this stage due to wagon theory and his vote position, I wish to lynch Hellfire.
