Mini 1907: Oddrole Mafia IV (Game over)

[TheBrie]

VOTE: Almost50

Cause he said to kill replacements and I'm the other replacement.

[TheBrie]

VOTE: Almost50

Cause he said to kill replacements and I'm the other replacement.

Any comments on anything more recent?

That was RSV. I haven't seen much that seemed momentous, but I've been a bit busy and haven't taken it in fully. I'll read it again.

[TheBrie]

I've collected a few random things of interest.

And kudos to everyone for not dying!

I wouldn't read much from that. Maybe she was involved in trying to kill someone. Maybe she helped saved them. Maybe neither.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

We've never been on the same team and I don't expect it to start now. We should just hydra at some point, GL.

I've heard that GL knows Podo's scum game. So if he reads Podo as town either Podo is or they're both scum.

Atleast I didn't become a Lich.

Does this mean he already is a lich? If there is one. This sounds a little self conscious to me. But maybe too obvious.

No, I'm just saying AT LEAST it gave us real substance to talk about.

I agree, though as town lost the game where we had info based on n0 deaths, this might turn out better. We have the knowledge that kills were blocked.

Overall I haven't got much to go on though I might start finding Creature annoying. If annoying=scum this game would be much easier.
UNVOTE:

[TheBrie]

Wait, is Creature saying he's a vig wich is the perfect cover for some kind of SK?

[TheBrie]

When did I give out role information?
Is it to early to make the observations I was?

Based on Creature's reply, I'm figuring he was only making a reference to the previous game.

[TheBrie]

And Java's information about his role seemed weird. If he didn't know anything, he shouldn't say anything.

[TheBrie]

My reasoning is because it was a great opportunity to begin with a wagon.

And we want to build wagons just because?

Not that there couldn't be aanything going on with Chick. I don't see anything solid though. The game is looking really murky. 8 is the most people I've sorted before.

[TheBrie]

And we want to build wagons just because?

Not that there couldn't be aanything going on with Chick. I don't see anything solid though. The game is looking really murky. 8 is the most people I've sorted before.

I mean what would count as "solid" in the first 4 pages of a game? Do you think the votes on Chickadee are good or bad?

Snarky's vote seems alright. Not so sure on Boring's. Creature's is to create pressure. I'd be happier if he gave his own reasons.

Personally outside of RVS I don't like voting just to make someone uncomfortable and much prefer to include direct questions.

[TheBrie]

Don't play when you're drunk.

But seriously even if Chick turns out to be scum. We've been playing for only a few days and she's at L-2 based on only a couple of things she said.

[TheBrie]

And really, that's all the defense I have, because as I've stated, no one has really brought a case against me. So all I can really say is, I'm town. Can't defend myself if there's nothing to defend against.

And now you're making me sympathize with you. I hate that feeling.

Anyway I'm feeling Podo's play is a little different to our last game. Maybe it's because he's drunk. Maybe it means nothing. But I don't really like it.
VOTE: Podoboq

[TheBrie]

You know, I'm actually kind of stupid. Podo was seen as townish for so much of that last game, I kind of forgot he was actually scum. The game was over before I realized it, so I got all messed up.

I'll post a read list when I get to my computer and have time. And maybe some info. I never know when to share info.

[TheBrie]

chick lists snarky as her top scumread but doesnt vote him despite being the leading wagon and him already having votes

chickadee + snarky + ?? easy peasy?

Interesting, though it's not as if she's voting anyone else. And why did he pick Chick of all people to vote for if she's one of his scum partners?

[TheBrie]

Okay, thoughts in semi random order. Mostly half formed. But it's probably helpful for you to see how my brain works. Mostly my brain is seeing people as townish or null.

Almost50 sounds townie. What he says makes sense and certainly doesn't have a calculated scum feel to it. Except for post 156 and 166. I get that he was using sarcasm to make apoint that an argument was invalid, but it was slightly confusing.

Guilty sounds townie. Good and fairly logical. Picking up on things.

Podo is sounding alright. I'm okay with him being town.

Chick seems different to my last game, so I'm thinking town.

Creature sounds okay. Keeping active, though he's still not my favourite character. This is really a gut read. I'm half surprised he hasn't tried to push Snarky for hardly posting.

Boring seems alright, but I'm really not sure.

Gingham I don't know about. I couldn't read her before. She doesn't sound scummish, but...

Rautherdir hasn't really said enough for me to get a good feel for.

I'm not getting a good feeling from Massive, but I can't say there's anything bad either. So null.

Desperado seems off. I'm not sure though and others are dealing with him.

Snarky is lurking, made a big post with little content and doesn't seem to know what's going on.
VOTE: Snarky

[TheBrie]

Good to know. But I haven't got anywhere much better to stick my vote for now.

BTW, your new avatar is making me sad. Because it's a sad book. Makes me feel like crying.

[TheBrie]

I'm 'ditsy' because I haven't played with this many people before and I actually have to worry about what people think. Last game I became conf town and that gave me more freedom.

Also I've been seesawing in whether I should give my information. I think its usefulness to town is greater than its usefulness to scum, but I haven't been sure claiming is a good idea.
Anyway here it is: I'm Census Taker. Once a game I can ask how many alive players there are of each alignment.
There's 3 mafia, 1 third-party, and 9 town aligned player.

[TheBrie]

Java last posted over 48 hours ago. I suppose that means he'll be prodded soon.
He's also the only one not voting.

[TheBrie]

@Brie, you missed Java in your reads list. How are you feeling about him?

What he has posted seems okay and if he has a good excuse for why he hasn't been on, I'll be moderately satisfied.

I didn't miss him intentionally.

[TheBrie]

Good point on the third party not bring a killer. I should have thought of that. Though potentially someone could not kill the first night and still kill later.
Goo would be fun, though I think they only affect people who target them. So I won't be goo.

[TheBrie]

Being, not bring.

[TheBrie]

And I was just in the middle of explaining myself.

I'm thinking Almost 59 is genuinely confused, though I'm surprised he missed it.

[TheBrie]

@boring I'm still not 100% sure who you're talking about in 265. I think it's Desperado, but can you please confirm.

Also I'm really not getting Boring's reasoning. Chick is scum reading her more for tone I think, than for simply disagreeing. Boring claims it doesn't make sense for Chick to swap wagons. However, it's perfectly reasobable for Chick to belive both boring and Desperado are scum and swap if she feel this is more useful. It's also reasonable for her to still suspect Boring even if Desperado appears as not scum.

So Boring doesn't make sense.

[TheBrie]

Actually it makes a little more sense after her post edit.

[TheBrie]

Interesting argument. Chick is making sense. Boring isn't quite. Yet I don't get a strong scum feel, so I'll keep with where I'm at.

Reading back through things I'm getting a townie vibe off JavaJoe despite his lack of posts. Personally I think his claim of not having a protective role came from genuine town. I don't think scum would specifically say they didn'ty have a role.

@Snarky what do you think of Chickadee now? And do you still think Almost50 is too talkative?

[TheBrie]

Actually, scum saying they didn't have a particular type of role could be scum reinforcing another claim later on, making that claim sound better.

Good point. Sometime I don't expect people to be that clever. I wasn't getting the clever impression from Java.

[TheBrie]

Hey Snarky, if you don't come along and answer my questions or provide any reads, should I assume you haven't changed your mind on anything?

[TheBrie]

@desperado if Chick is town who do you expect the two scum are?

Sorry I've not been on much today. I've been having an unproductive day reading fanfics.

[TheBrie]

I'm not sure what to think about everything. Desperado's claim does sound a little too odd to be made up, but the way he stated it didn't ping right with me.
His alternative scum reads to Chick sounded like rubbish. I wouldn't call Rautherdir really towny, but he doesn't seem scummy. And Creature sounds like he's town Creature. Without any reasons for those reads I'm not taking them.
And seriously they weren't really reads. They were just Desperado saying if there wasn't 1 scum on his wagon there was 2, which doesn't make good sense.

[TheBrie]

Anyone else lacking any decent scum reads? My current scum reads are really just there by process of elimination rather than any particularly scummy behaviour.

Not counting Snarky, the only players I don't seem to be town-reading are massive, GuiltyLion, and podoboq. Anyone care to share thoughts on them?

Massive- I don't get a very towny feel though I couldn't make a good argument for him as scum.

Guilty- I'm getting a generally towny feel though it's not strong. His reads and actions sound good.

Podo- Aldo sounds towny, but I know I shouldn't trust him. He's a great player as scum.

[TheBrie]

can you explain how it looks like town creature? I'm seeing barely involved lurking scum creature.

rauthers vote on me was the worst, followed by podo

Creature has the highest point of any of us. Even though I don't see as being overly useful, it's so much better than the previous game.
Though he wasn't exactly scum!Creature in that game. He was third party. I expect it's about the same.

[TheBrie]

* post count, not point.

[TheBrie]

@Almost50 is your problem with what Java just said because he ended up leaving his options completly open or something else?

[TheBrie]

We could also all be three town who genuinely thought Gingham could be scum.

With only one shallow reason between the three of you? I want more reasoning.

Personally I'm fairly null on Gingham. She's not scummy, but I haven't noticed anything strongly towny either.

[TheBrie]

Okay. I finally got on.

Snarky sounds wrong except for one things. His point on Desperado seems semi-solid. CPR trainer has negative town utility. One CPR doctor who's either great at guessing night kills or uses it as vigilante is useful. But if there's only one night kill, two CPR doctors is crazy. It would be the swingiest craziest game ever. I can hardly believe that even in an oddrole game.

So I don't really believe Desperado's claim. Fake claim puts him as scum or third party.

I'm trying to figure if it's possible for Snarky and Desperado to be partners. Maybe it fits with Snarky voting almost50. But he seems to have called rather a lot of attention to Desperado. It's more than distancing. So I dunno.

VOTE: Desperado
I might change back to Snarky as the day end draws nearer.

[TheBrie]

Actually I have a suspicion of who that target might be. And he isn't someone I think is particularly scummy.
And it's so smoothly done I don't think it's likely to be scum orchestrated. Unless they have day chat.

UNVOTE:

My grandmother is visiting so I might not get on as much in the next couple of days. I'll have to read through things again.

[TheBrie]

I'm willing to lynch Snarky. Not sure it's the best choice, but though I'm uncertain about Desperado's claim, I know we're not going that way today. And no one else I have a decent sized suspicion on has a vote.

But I don't want to rush this. I won't hammer until the last 12 hours.

I'm doing some ISO and will have more thoughts in a bit.

[TheBrie]

You would have had access to the scum chat if you were scum. Which would have most definitely clued you in that it was a night start. Therefore, it was a town slip as only town would legitimately do that.

Also Desperado, if the person who received the CPR training is scum, they could just kill you to prevent themselves from being outed. Or scum could just kill you anyways to prevent a somewhat decent ability from getting around.

Maybe I've missed something but I can't figure out who the first part of this is addressed to. I tho8ugh I'd know at the time, but can't remember. Who made the town slip?

[TheBrie]

Massive: Okay, townish
Podo: Okay
Creature: Doesn't make sense.
Rautherdir: Some of what he's said about Desperado gives me a connection between them. But I'm still inclined to see him as town.
Chickadee: I'll take as town for now.
Boring: Also townie
Almost50: Townish
Desperado: I'm inclined to take the just lynch it route. I don't like his role even as town. But I'm uncertain.
Java: I wish he's be more active or get replaced.
Gingham: Seems slightly different to my last game with her, but could just be rl busyness. Anyway she's not scum with Desp.
GuiltyLion: Null, he's been absent from this game lately.

I really need to get more scum reads. I'm used to there only being two and only focus on one. Three and a 3P is harder.

[TheBrie]

So much said since I was last on. A lot to think about.
I'm a little less sure about Snarky.
I'm pretty sure Podo is town. He's so much more invested than last game.

[TheBrie]

Podo never bothered to go through the whole game to this degree. I don't think scum need to try so hard. And what he's coming out with is fairly sound.

[TheBrie]

I agree that the meta is different this game from the last. But how little credit should we give her, as someone capable of learning and growing as a player?

I found the meta difference compelling too, until her motivation became apparent. Again, how little credit should I give her as a player to conclude that she's town, but playing selfishly?

Was she a pure vanilla townie in that other game?

Unrelated:

VOTE: Chickadee

So your vote on Chick has nothing to do with your questions about Chick?

She was scum who would show up as VT on death. And we had been suspcious of her.

[TheBrie]

VOTE: massive

Bleep it, let's try something.

Last time you mentioned Massive you were town reading him.

I agree that his vote on Chick was weird, but do you have any other reasons?

[TheBrie]

After all this I still prefer Snarky over Massive slightly. But my my usual lack of confidence I don't want to to be the one making the choice.
Can someone give some solid evidence for why one is better than the other?

Just to clarify what I'd said about Podo's opinion of Massive: in post #407 he said he likes Massive's post #161.

[TheBrie]

That's a good point.

I doubt they're both scum with Massive pushing the Chickadee wagon. And his push against Chick does sound better than Chick's push against him. But only narrowly.

I'll wait until tomorrow to vote.

[TheBrie]

Ugh. I've lost confidence in all these wagons and don't know where to find another one. I had considered the possibility of Massive being scum before he got wagoned, but could never find any actual proof until he didn't explain a vote fully. Realizing he had been on Chickadee before makes that sound a little better.

I'm still interested in Desperado. When Rauth told us to assume Desperado was confirmed, I assumed he was the trainee. Recently that seems highly unlikely and I'm a little less confident. Though I can't imagine the two of them as scum partners either.

[TheBrie]

I'm guessing a misslynch would be better than no lynch?
If we kill town today and 1 town is killed tonight, that's 7 - 3 - 1 plus information. Not ideal, but it probably increases the chance of lynching scum tomorrow.
I've got just enough confidence that I will hammer one of the wagons at the day end to prevent no lynch.

[TheBrie]

Something I started writing last night that's interesting in the light of what's happenned:
I think I brought up my now unlikely suspicion of Rauth being Desperado's trainee. I don't remember anyone commenting on it.
If that's not the case, I don't know what basis he was saying we should consider Desperado confirmed. Unless he picked up something crumbed that everyone else missed.

So today I say: I support this wagon, though its speed scared me a little. I'm thinking Rauth is much more likely to 3P than Mafia.
I'll hammer if boring hasn't by the day end.

[TheBrie]

If third party was goo, then one of the kills must be from town. Maybe CPR doctor/trainer. Hopefully they killed Gingham and scum killed Podo.

Podo said he knew from the beginning of day 1 that Snarky wasn't likely to be scum. If he was telling the truth, then that was before Snarky could have targetted him. But trusting him would be stupid.

I did census after the day start so any changes in alignment happened after that. And for those who might have thought otherwise, it's only a one time ability. I almost wish I'd gone against the tips and saved it.
L
P edit: good no more goo created.

[TheBrie]

This puts Almost50 and Desperado as town in my eyes.
3 scum and probably 6 town. I think there's a slight chance of one goo.

I'm guessing that all black goo recruit when targeted. It makes the most sense to me.

[TheBrie]

It's possible that Gingham may not have used her ability N0. 25% (anyone could guess) of hitting scum with it. Probably worth it.

[TheBrie]

@mod is there a mistake in the vote count? You have Chickadee listed twice and miss Massive.

[TheBrie]

So Chickadee is a vote thief and stole from Massive. It can be a town or scum role.
Town would steal from someone they believed to be scum. Scum might steal from either, though they're not the most likely partners.

[TheBrie]

I looked at A50. He didn't say much on the CPR ability. He was TRing Desp. He didn't say much about Gingham, though he said suspicions came on re-read.

I don't think CPR could be scum and I don't think this could be hatched between scum. Still very slight possibility that Desperado gave CPR to scum!A50. Desp is town. I wish he wasn't.

[TheBrie]

But we don't know for certain that there is goo.

If Joe knows who Gingham gave the ability to last night, he's implying it's not him. A tracker type role is usually town to my knowledge. I don't think outing the person is a good idea, so I'm going to take Joe as town without further confirmation.

Town: Joe, A50, Desperado, Brie
Prob town: Guilty

Remaining: Snarky, Chick, Massive, Creature

Can people give their opinions on them? I'll be back to do mine in a few hours.

[TheBrie]

Just adding, anyone who seriously considers letting themself be taken over by the goo will be severely disliked by me. It is anti town.

[TheBrie]

If creature is goo, then we still have no reason for Podo defending Snarky. If anyone is goo, it's got to be Snarky.

Creature certainly hasn't been useful though and his play has been a little odd. He's not making it into my town pool.

Massive never seemed very scummy. Before his slightly odd vote on Chickadee I'd gotten and odd vibe form him, but on examination couldn't find anything to found it on.

Chick, I'm really uncertain about. I'm not putting her as town.

Guilty gave me a towny impression, but I'm certain enough to stick to it.

[TheBrie]

@Chick, what's your opinion of Desperado as CPR Trainer and A50 as Trainee?
Based on that Desp is def town in my mind and A50 is likely town.
I'm accepting Java's claim of a tracking role as town confirmation.

[TheBrie]

Well, A50 is in my certainly don't lynch today pool. Snarky isn't but I'm okay with not lynching him today.

@Creature, bsides you comments about the goo, what do you think of everyone today?

[TheBrie]

I don't have any good proof that Snarky is town. If he's not scum he's likely goo. So he's certainly not the best lynch, but not the worst either.

What do you think of Creature, Chick?

[TheBrie]

If I decided to believe Chick and take Creature and Snarky both as town, while simultaneously hanging onto A50 as town, I'm left with Guilty and Massive as scum. I was leaning town on Guilty and I'm pretty null on Massive. Since there's three scum, there's at lewst one problem there.

I'm thinking A50 is town because there's little scum motive in clearing Desperado as town. Though if he were scum, he might be afraid of being outed as scum if he didn't. Because Desp could have confirmed with someone else.

[TheBrie]

After those answers, I'd rather not go after A50. I like the way he plays and always thought of him as towny.

I do have this one problem, Podo can't have been a cop then become Goo. Since there was only 1 3P at the start of D1, he would have had to be a day cop who targetted Goo. And that doesn't make any sense. Unless he targetted goo N1 before he died. In that case he isn't a cop, because he clearly said he didn't have a cop clear on Snarky. Said it was mechanical reasons.

I hope that made some amount of sense.

Massive, what exactly do you mean by Scum playing with the CPR odds?

[TheBrie]

I'm not lynching Joe. He has a verifiable claim of a tracker role and to my knowledge that's likely to be a town role.

I've got a null on GL.

[TheBrie]

Okay, that makes sense. I got muddled and thought you were talking about a plain cop as opposed to some variant of cop.

[TheBrie]

Does nobody notice that there are strong reasons to think JavaJoe is town? Not conclusive reasons, and not very good town, but enough to put him as a no lynch today.

I'd rather not go for A50 today, and Snarky isn't a great choice.

That leaves Chick, Creature, and Guilty. I'm uncertain of Creature and Massive and Chick aren't both scum.

[TheBrie]

I read through this. I'll try to untangle it when I'm more awake.

[TheBrie]

@Guilty, What's your stance on Massive? I know you think chick is more likely to be scum than he is, but I have no idea what you think of him in isolation.

[TheBrie]

I've never seen a vote analysis like Joe did before, and I'm not perfectly happy with all the premises, but it seems fairly sound.
I've been analyzing who's leaning which way on who and noticed a few interesting things.

A50 is scum read by Chick, Guilty and Massive. If he is scum, I doubt both his partners are in that three. A50 reads Guilty and massive as scummy.

Nobody really scumreads Snarky and Snarky hasn't expressed much opinion of anyone.

The main thing I can figure out about Creature is that he now doesn't think JavaJoe is scum. And though his post count is high there's so little content and he's not paying attention. I'd hardly call him invested in the game.

I'd like to know more of Desperado's thoughts. All i know is he'd prefer to lynch Chicka or Creature.

Overall my favourite lynch is Chick, but I'm not certain enough yet. Massive's Reads seem to be a bit all over the place and they're not both scum.

[TheBrie]

@Chick I noticed you haven't said much about Guilty. What's your opinion on him?

[TheBrie]

Oh right, A50 probably shot one of podo/Gingham. Either he shot podo (aka he's goo) or he shot Gingham (and then I wonder why he thinks I'm town who killed podo and became goo).

I believe he thinks you were goo and Podo targetted you last night before getting killed by scum.
Nobody thought you shot Podo.

[TheBrie]

And please don't anyone hammer (cause I think that's still only l-1) until I weigh in. It'll be within two hours.

[TheBrie]

Which of my reads would you quantify as "all over the place"?

I had meant to qualify this, but lost the post somehow. I'll admit I was doing ISo and the posts in between might have made it more reasonable.
You had Chick as your biggest scum read, them added Joe and didn't think Chick wasn't so likely to be scum as well.
Also in post #882 you seemed satisfied with A50's use of the CPR and very quickly begun calling him Scum.

[TheBrie]

I don't think Chick is scum with Guilty, so if she is Scum it's with two of A50, Snarky and Creature.

If Chick isn't scum, it's likely Massive and Guilty both are. They both loosely TR each other which would be bad for them if one got lynched.

I can't see sense in scum pushing a scum!A50 so close tot the lynch. Guilty voted, but unvoted to prevent the lynch. Massive SRs A50, but doesn't vote him.

I especially can't see sense in Chick quick-hammering her partner. If Chick is Scum and A50 town, an A50 lynch would send us into the night 4-3-1. We'd probably come out of the night 3-2-1. (supposing Desperado knocks Chick off, scum don't accidentally kill goo, and none of us target goo) Suppose we kill a scum that day and scum kill a town the next night. We're in day four 2-1-1. I'm not sure if that Lylo of Mylo with the goo in there. depending on who's already been killed Scum have a chance. So I can see scum doing that.

While I can't see why Town chick would do a quick hammer. If the whole thing had been slower I think an a50 lynch would be more likely.

I still think Joe is town. If we wanted to expose who was given revive during the night we can prove his night action. And I don't think he's clever enough to be playing this way as scum. (no offense).

[TheBrie]

If we lynch Chick and Chick is town while A50 is scum, we've probably lost the game. Unless Desp uses his CPR as a Vig on scum. Probably one of Guilty or Massive. Or maybe A50, though I don't think that will stop his kill and if he happens to be town, we'll lose again.

I hate not having any brilliant players who I can trust. Desp hardly talks, and I don't think any better of Joe's contingency plans than I do of my own.

And while writing I've deiced I'm not as sure of Massive and GL both being Scum if Chick isn't as I said.

[TheBrie]

Now if A50 is town and Chick is scum I think Creature is scum. Otherwise A50 would probably be hammered already.

Interesting thought Guilty.

Chick, if we don't Lynch A50, who's your second choice?

[TheBrie]

Nother thought. If A50 is scum, we must lynch scum. If he's town, I think we have a little lee way.

If Podo had an investigatory role as we suspect, him investigating Creature does make some sense. Now if Creature is Goo, then Creature obviously isn't scum. So he can't be one of Chick's partners. So unless A50 and Chick are both scum, I don't know who Chick's partners are.

[TheBrie]

Now I'm going out and won't be back for 6 hours or so.

[TheBrie]

Massive SRs A50, but doesn't vote him.

Yeah well I had my vote stolen so I kinda CAN'T. Come on son.

I'm a girl. I did kind of forget that. I wasn't saying you should be voting A50 though. Just analyzing the possible connections.
If you had a vote would you be voting for Chick A50 or neither?

[TheBrie]

Unless some of the scum have protective or role blocking abilities, there's no reason for a CPR vig on Chick to fail. Gingham surely wouldn't have given her the revive.
Anyone have a thought of who possibly might be goo other than Creature? Just on the chance that A50 is town and Chick is scum, I think Creature is one of Chick's partners. Snarky could be one and possibly Guilty.

[TheBrie]

I still think that Java is town even though I don't like his reasoning. While the reasoning for why Chick is scum is very good.

My guess for a scum team is Chick/Creature/IDK? I was thinking Snarky, but he's half confirmed as town. But I can't see it as Guilty or Massive.

I'm still not voting her without another contingency plan attempt. If Chick is town, Desp must vig who he thinks is mostly likely to be scum. My guess is Massive or Guilty. If he misses, we're dead, but we probably are anyway.
VOTE: Chickadee

[TheBrie]

Actually, I need to think a bit.

UNVOTE:

I can't help worrying that Scum is A50/Guilty/Massive and they're tricking me into this.

But then why did Chick try to hammer like that?

And what does this mean?

Chickadee probably has no idea on how to find the goo (if there's one).

[TheBrie]

I don't know Chick's play enough to know if this id at all likely, but I can kind of see a panicked town player hammering someone they were sure of being scum, of there seemed a highly likelihood of getting lynched themself. Not the best move, but if A50 had been hammered and flipped scum, we might not see Chick as quite so scummy.

[TheBrie]

Town must have got plenty of night actions and a bunch of weaponry against the black goos.

What's that supposed to mean?

It is a good point though that to eliminate the Black Goo we will have to lynch them. So remember to be careful with your night actions people.

[TheBrie]

I can imagine a world where A50 isn't scum, I can just barely imagine a world where Chick isn't scum.
However, I see no world where neither of them are scum.
Both are dangerous left alive as scum. A50 at night, Chick the next day. A50 needs to be killed today to be stopped. Chick needs to be killed today or tonight.

If town!A50 is lynched and scum!Chick is vigged, 3-2-1 results.
If scum!A50 is lynched and town!Chick is vigged, it's the same result. While if Chick if scum, we're 4-1-1 and if we don't vig scum!Chick, we're 4-2-1 and die if goo and town don't all vote together.

If town!Chick is lynched and Scum!a50 is vigged, we're 2-2-1 and probably dead.
If scum!Chick is lynched and scum!a50 is vigged, we're 3-2-1 and might pull through.
If scum!Chick is Lynched an a50 is town he better not use his CPR. If Desp kills him we're 3-2-1, if he doesn't we're 4-2-1. Probably best to in case he's scum.

This is also supposing goo don't get targeted by anyone, scum kill successfully and and don't have any kind of protection or roleblock.

So if they're both scum it might be better to lynch A50. Any mislynching Chick is slightly better that mislynching A50.

But I can't play solely one numbers. I think that between the two Chick is still more likely to be scum.

[TheBrie]

I just realized I got the numbers wrong. Bit in bold is fixed.

If town!Chick is lynched and Scum!a50 is vigged, we're 2-2-1 and probably dead.
If scum!Chick is lynched and scum!a50 is vigged, we're

3-1-1 and alright.

If scum!Chick is Lynched an a50 is town he better not use his CPR. If Desp kills him we're 3-2-1, if he doesn't we're 4-2-1. Probably best to in case he's scum.

[TheBrie]

Put it this way, if you are saying A50 is town, you are saying the scum team is me, creature, and Chickadee, as we all are voting A50 and scum has had plenty of time to hammer. Do you honestly think that team is possible??

I doubt it's possible. I'm still inclined to seeing you as town.

So A50 can't be town unless Podo's information about Snarky is wrong. So based on my prior reasoning I should probably hammer A50 now. But I'd rather wait a little longer, we've got plenty of time.

I've just run a calculation for how likely scum are to succeed at the nk. Assuming one townie with a revive and no other protection or interference. Also random nk since they probably don't know who has revive or who is goo.
With 1 nk: 67% chance of killing town, 17% of killing goo, 17% chance of missing.
With 2 nk: There's only about 3% chance of no town dying and 37% chance of a goo dying. The math is a bit complex because there's an overlap between the two., but I think that means theres more than a 60% chance that two town will die if we let scum keep a second kill.

And after all that I realized there probably is some protection of interference in place seeing no one dies N0. So our chances are better than that and the math will be too hard.

It's probably slightly better to lynch A50 than Chick, especially if Desp can CPR kill the other. However, unless Chick is town, or we fail to kill any scum day or night, we'll survive.

[TheBrie]

.
So if they're both scum it might be better to lynch A50. Any mislynching Chick is slightly better that mislynching A50.

I should post when I'm tired. That read opposite to what I meant to say. Mislynching Chick is worse as I indicated in the last post.

I started writing this stuff 13 hours ago, then had to go out and it's all gotten disorganized.

[TheBrie]

I agree with your conclusion, but I would just like to point out a couple of your numbers are wrong, both for not accounting for chickas vote thief and just a couple of simple errors. It basically comes to the same end result though.

I didn't leave Chick alive to use vote thief rhe next day in any of my scenarios. There is a good point there. If we don't lynch Chick today, there's a chance she could still steal a vote. If kills resolve last, then we may still be down a vote though Scun won't be up one.

[TheBrie]

Btw, on N0 I targeted GL.

If this is true and you're town, we then know Guilty isn't Goo.

[TheBrie]

Only one problem with that reasoning. If Chick is scum then Massive could be the goo. It was Java who had thought GL could possibly the goo if Creature wasn't.
So no one target Massive either.

[TheBrie]

Grr, I'm so muddled up that I can't figure who to vote. This morning I felt more confident in lynching A50, but I wanted to read things through before saying more. Now I'm not so sure. (and still haven't read through. I've been busy procrastinating on everything)

I will read through again and figure it out. The one thing I'm certain of is that They can't both be town. If they were, A50 would be lynched by now.

[TheBrie]

Okay, I've read through all of day one and come to a conclusion. Chick is mostly likely scum, if by dome chance she isn't, A50 and Massive are both scum.
I think something is up with Creature. I think Massive could be Goo.
I think Guilty is town.

VOTE: Chickadee

That's L-1.

[TheBrie]

Even though I just said I thought GL was town, I can't deny I've had my doubts. If Chick is town, then her reasoning puts him as scum.
I don't want to lose today, so I'm going to think about it more.
UNVOTE:

[TheBrie]

I'm slightly more comfortable lynching A50. Just because I can't come up with a scum team that seems plausible with A50 as town, but I can just manage to do that with Chick. Min you I', still 90% certain Chick is scum, but i just feel more comfortable this way.

VOTE: Almost50

If Almost50 somehow isn't scum, Snarky is and Chcik must be vigged.

[TheBrie]

Desp, can you decide which of us you want to CPR kill Chick tonight? Don't tell anyone your decision, but if you want me to do it, just give me the ability. That way no one else will know which of us is doing it. I doubt they can stop us both.

And no one target Creature or Massive.

[TheBrie]

@Desp If you trust anyone else to execute it, train them instead. I can't remember your position on Joe and Snarky.

People, if Desp gives to the CPR ability, target Chick.

[TheBrie]

I wonder why Snarky isn't voting? He's been coasting and pretty useless all game and we can't let that pass tomorrow. Podo didn't have a cop clear, so we can't assume Snarky is def town. If we weren't backed into the edge of a cliff I'd pressure him now. Same with Creature, though I doubt he'll come up any clearer what ever we do.

[TheBrie]

Well Desp and I have already claimed. I'm guessing Guilty killed Joe and Joe killed Guilty. Which means Desp killed Chick and is Goo now.
Question is whether Chick became Goo when she stole the vote from Massive N1 or someone else N2.
I'm not sure of the dynamics, but since no one lost a vote tonight but Chick was killed, I'm guessing it was N1 which puts Massive as Goo also and Snarky or Creature as the remaining scum.

[TheBrie]

Alternatively, Desp is scum and this whole thing is an elaborate ruse. He and A40 were working together along with Guilty.
Which means there's one Goo who may or may not be Massive. I think that's a bit crazy though. All that points to it is the fact that Desp scumread Chick and said nothing about A50. It's a bad theory.

[TheBrie]

Further debunking that crazy second theory is the fact it would place all three scum on Chickadee's wagon. So Desp is Goo.

[TheBrie]

Yeah, they do. I think for town to have any chance at winning we'll need to lynch you today. And you were the one person I was most confident about. So sorry.

I've looked at more about Goo mechanics, and I think I got it wrong. Chick only just becoming Goo seems more likely now. Which does clear Massive as not Goo.

[TheBrie]

Okay, I think it's Snarky or massive.

You think what is Snarky or Massive?

[TheBrie]

The really important question is whether becoming Goo nullifies non kill actions. The Wiki seems to indicate it does, but it's vague.

[TheBrie]

So if Chick steal a vote from Goo, she just becomes Goo and as she isn't a vote thief anymore nothing happens.
Other possibility is that Chick was more than a vote thief. She didn't claim, so she could have had another action.

[TheBrie]

Reasoning for scum!Snarky seems solid.
We've got to lynch Goo though, or we'll be 2-2 tomorrow and they win. They might still win, but I'm going for the narrow chance of escape. Sorry Desp.
VOTE: Desperado

[TheBrie]

Well that was quick. I'm about to go V/LA for a few days. I'll be back on Monday. Leaving in 40 hours. Please don't lose the game while I'm gone.

[TheBrie]

I'm leaving in an hour. Both claim and I'll sort it out in three days time when I'm home.

[TheBrie]

Snarky can claim first.

[TheBrie]

What does shuffler do?

[TheBrie]

Creature, your turn to claim.

[TheBrie]

Joe was a cephalopod on N1. It seems a little surprising have both a weird morphing role and one of the roles it can morph into.

What did you do on N0 Creature?

[TheBrie]

I'm feeling tempted to just "fuck it" vote.

What's that mean?

[TheBrie]

What would be the point of a mafia census taker?
You do have a point though. No one has scum read me since day 1, but I'm not actually confirmed.

I do actually have something to claim. I got given the revive from Gingham. That's why I never forgot that Joe's night action could be proved, and was determined to see him as town.

[TheBrie]

I'm trying to figure out what happened with the Goo.

Desp became Goo N2 by targeting Chick.
Chick must have become Goo N1 by targeting Massive.
Which means Massive was Goo all along.
Podo became Goo N1 by targeting Massive.

I wish I knew what Podo's role was. I'm going to believe Snarky's claim, though it's not necessarily a town role. I'm figuring Podo found out the role somehow and guessed it was town.

@Creature, What made you choose to watch me last night?

[TheBrie]

Heh, I thought there was a fair chance I'd be targeted. I'm glad Massive was killed though. Having a goo around as well would have complicated matters.

Even though Massive was already Goo, I like his detection of Snarky being the only possible scum on Rautherdir's wagon, better than I like Podo's reasons for thinking Snarky was town.
Massive had no reason to side with scum and Podo wasn't conclusive.
Furthermore a general examination makes me think Creature is much less likely to be scum than Snarky is. So here goes everthing.
VOTE: Snarky Snowman

[TheBrie]

@Snarky your role is no more probable than Creature's.

Scum can't become goo because scum can't become goo. Black goo is a cult and only recruits town.

Why does there have to be goo on Rauth's wagon? You're not making much sense.

And fine, I'll unvote for a few hours. On the chance Creature is scum, he hasn't been on line to hammer since I posted. Which means he isn't waiting around impatiently for me to vote someone so he can quick hammer.
UNVOTE:

[TheBrie]

I'm trying to figure out people's alignments at different stages of the game. That might help set a few things straight. You two are both hard to read.

I could imagine Podo faking some kind of investigation to get himself investigated by town, but it doesn't fit with the timing. Since Chick and Massive were both goo, she must have changed when stealing his vote N1. So he was already Goo and we know there was only one when D1 begun. But enough of that. It's not helping.

Creature was firmly on the Almost wagon D2 when it would have been easy to go for Chick. Snarky was useless. D3 tells us almost nothing. N3 is worth analyzing. Why pick Massive to kill? Maybe he's just a scarier player, maybe scum thought I'd have more trouble figuring it out that way. Maybe scum remembered the revive was out there and guessed I was the most likely recipient. But neither of you seem that smart.

[TheBrie]

I think I've got to end this game before it dies. I still think Snarky is more scummy.

VOTE: Snarky Snowman

[TheBrie]

Also, this time I'm not pulling a Newbie 1794 where I cautiously say "not hammering", someone unvotes and I gotta wait until someone is brought to L-1 again.

I looked at that. It's different circumstances since there's only three players left. Here getting town reads doesn't matter, because hammering would have won you the game as scum. You're town.

[TheBrie]

Is this game going anywhere? I know we've still got time, but that doesn't mean we have wait for the day end.

[TheBrie]

Bother. You're making so much sense. But I don't know why Creature hasn't hammered you if you're scum.
I can't give much of a defense. Checking my other games probably won't help. My newbie games would probably match the beginning of this game, but later on there's few enough players, that I get to be more gamesolvy. Maybe compare me to the end of Oddrole III.
I did choose to lynch Almost rather than Chick, but there's probably not much in that.

One other point: I got the revive from GinghamDog. It's not provable, but you both know you haven't got it, no one who's died got it, and I doubt either of you would really think she gave it to the other one of you.
Now, if I have a revive and I'm scum, I've already won the game. If I'm lynched, I'll revive, and kill one of you tonight.
If I'm town and I get lynched, or if there's no lynch, scum still picks off the other townie and we lose.
So even if you're not sure I'm town, there's no hope if you lynch me.

[TheBrie]

Though Creature has a hiding action. So if Snarky is scum, and we no lynch, we'll be in exactly the same place.
And if I was scum, I could still kill Snarky.

[TheBrie]

A50 and Snarky does look like a terrible partnership. I've found this one thing.

@Brie:

I don't think podo would have stick out his neck that far to defend his buddy, lest SS got lynched on the spot (and he sure did look like the lynch at the time). podo said he had "mechanical" reason. I took that to be a Tracker/Follower/Watcher who saw SS visit someone who didn't die. However, Java is now crumbing Tracker/Watcher, and SS said he doesn't have a visiting ability, so podo might have been a Vanilla Cop (thus the uncertainty).

If Almost had thought Snarky was Tracker/Watcher, why wasn't Snarky one of the N1 kills?

I'm grasping at straws here because I can find a plausible answer myself. Maybe he couldn't find a good excuse for CPRing him and Podo seemed more dangerous.

[TheBrie]

I was just thinking about the lack of kills N0. Creature said he was hiding that night which is a possible explanation. I can't think of any other options, though I suppose we could have had a doctor who became Goo. Maybe Podo protected Snarky N0 and assumed he was town since nobody died. That makes good sense.

[TheBrie]

Don't worry. I'm town.
And I didn't even get to examine GL"s ISO for connections to Snarky.
I do think that when Almost had both partners in his lynch pool it was due to elimination. He never tried to push anything on GL. And it did a good job of hiding Snarky as his partner.

[TheBrie]

And now we wait for the Mod to arrive and sort us out.
You puzzle me by that post, Snarky. If it wasn't for the fact we know there was three Mafia and only two were killed before now, I'd worry all we had left was goo. None of the town flips look like they could be disguised scum, so I still think I've got it right.

[TheBrie]

So my guess about what happened N0 was mostly right. I wish I'd thought of it earlier.
I'm surprised by how much Goo we ended up with. But then this is only my fourth game.

I'm figuring Snarky used his recruit N3 and failed because Creature was Goo. When did you become Goo, Creature?

[TheBrie]

I'm glad it turned out this way. 4 out of 9 town players had become Goo. A town win would be kind of unfair to them when they done their best as town.

[TheBrie]

Okay. Makes sense. I should have realized there'd be a smaller scum team to start with.

[TheBrie]

We got lucky when Joe killed GL. I'm pretty sure he wasn't especially trying to.

[TheBrie]

I'm tempted to say yes though I've never played anything that size and prefer Micros to Minis. But as long as I'm town, I should manage.