Mafia 73: NEGWLTWWWTKY - Abandoned!

[Xylthixlm]

Certainly, I agree with you. That fits with the rest of his play for most of this game. He's only really gone against popular targets and his cases, most notably that on Peers, are lackluster.

He changed his mind on Peers, though.

Before

his retroactive death overnight.

Explain.

When day 2 started, Peers was mistakenly listed as still alive. The game progressed for a while before the mod fixed the error and made Peers retroactively dead.

[zu_Faul]

. I have looked closer at zu_faul lately though, and have found nothing useful from him at all. It's as though he's a parrot, chirping out what others have said and jumping on the easy bandwagons.

Who was it again who started the KScope wagon, when there was no one else voting for him? So much for parrotting. Maybe have someone read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyslexia for you. Slowly.

I'll reply to vollkan when I got more time.

[vollkan]

Certainly, I agree with you. That fits with the rest of his play for most of this game. He's only really gone against popular targets and his cases, most notably that on Peers, are lackluster.

He changed his mind on Peers, though.

Before

his retroactive death overnight.

Explain.

When day 2 started, Peers was mistakenly listed as still alive. The game progressed for a while before the mod fixed the error and made Peers retroactively dead.

Yes, I gathered that much.

What I am asking you is: What is the significance of hasd changing his position on Peers before his retroactive death?

However, I have now reread that bit myself in full and I think I see your problem.

When I read back to that point in time, I see hasd say:

I believe peers' claim more today than i did yesterday.

The night deaths. Either Peers is NK immune or a town vig tried to kill him or, what I find most likely, scum tried to kill him.

However, I would like to know who Peers protected last night.

Erg0 points out:

Or, and bear with me here, he's scum and thus the scum did not kill him.

You seem to be making some big assumptions about the source of the kills...

Then hasd says:

I know one of two things. Either he's NK immune or someone tried to kill him.

The non-death of a doc is not something so incredible that it requires resort to speculation of NK immunity. WIFOM games is always a possibility.

But, let's look more closely at the possibilities hasd gives:
1) NK immune
2) Someone tried to kill him

The above aren't actually alternative scenarios at all. If 2) is the case, then by virtue of the fact that Peers wasn't declared dead, 1) would HAVE to be the case - Peers must have been NK immune, if only for that night.

In other words - Hasd effectively declared that he KNEW Peers was targeted for a NK.

Unvote, Vote: hasd

Please explain.

@Zu: I'm eager to see your responses.

[JordanA24]

Personally, I think if there's only four scum, then we've got a huge number of vanilla townies. Maybe two power roles at most. I think it's more likely that there's five scum and four power roles. I've been in a six-scum 19-player game, but that was two mafias in a no-cross-kill game, so I don't think we've got that many. Four or five makes the most sense...

Since you're in a mind to speculate, why do you think the name of the game is

NEGWLTWWWTKY

?

For the record, I thought each letter represented the first letter of a role in the game. For instance, there are 4 "W" which I thought to signify 4 werewolves. With

M

asons and

J

ailkeepers I have to reckon I supposed wrong.

This is very interesting, because it implies that if Toaster Strudel has a non-Villager role it starts with N, E, G, W, L, T, K, or Y. That excludes pretty much every role I can think of ... except Werewolf. (Nurse is possible, but it would imply the presence of a Doctor, and D isn't in the list.)

So either Toaster Strudel is a Villager and claimed unnecessarily, or he's a Werewolf and wasn't thinking hard enough before posting. Hmmm.

I don't really like this post, there are a couple of other roles that I can think of that begin with those letters, and I agree with Erg0 that this isn't a very good thing to bring up, the scum may have noticed it, but there is a chance they didn't, and now they definatly have noticed it.

5: Doesn't think MoS's policy-lynch of TS is protown. Suggests MoS might be bad scum

I wasn't suggesting that MOS may be bad scum, I was pointing out to ABR he could be bad scum instead of being a Jester

How is this not suggesting that he may be bad scum??

I was wondering if ABR had considered the possibility, I wasn't saying that I believed MOS to be bad scum, at that point.

oh no all we need is more spam..

Are you planning on actually contributing at some point? Get in the game please.

Or, possibly, we could look for something besides your false dilemma and lynch someone like zu_faul or jordan, both of which have also been scummy.

Hey hasdfgas - what do you think is scummy about jordan?

And if there are people you find scummy, why aren't you voting anyone?

I may have the wrong end of the stick with the underlined part, but why are you asking what's scummy about me when you're currently voting me?

FoS: Toaster Strudel

for his incredibly opportunistic attempt to redirect suspicion to hasdgfas. hasdgfas isn't scum.

Hasdagas practically just confessed.

He tripped on his semantic shoelaces.

I'm quite suspicious of hasd, but I think this is stretching quite a bit, for the reasons Xyl outlined in Post 1709.

. I have looked closer at zu_faul lately though, and have found nothing useful from him at all. It's as though he's a parrot, chirping out what others have said and jumping on the easy bandwagons.

Who was it again who started the KScope wagon, when there was no one else voting for him? So much for parrotting. Maybe have someone read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyslexia for you. Slowly.

I'll reply to vollkan when I got more time.

Oh yes, I forgot about KScope, well done there zu_Faul.

Just one problem there, didn't KScope turn out to be a powerrole?

There was no need for the Dyslexia insult either IMO.

I'll post a seperate post to respond to vollkan's Post 1684, to prevent this one from becoming too long.

[hasdgfas]

vollkan: me explaining my comments on Peers would involve a role claim. Do you want me to do that now?

[hasdgfas]

zu: That insult was completely unnecessary. Even though I'm a cow, I can read just fine.
Also, you starting the kscope wagon appeared to be more of a "let's lynch kscope for lurking instead of me" which doesn't help your case at all

[DrippingGoofball]

vollkan: me explaining my comments on Peers would involve a role claim. Do you want me to do that now?

No, but whatever your role is, all I want to know, is why you didn't target Quagmire, whose alignment we most sorely needed to settle?

What reason could there be to target Peers, who was condemned to die? Who would need to check up anything on Peers?

[Toaster Strudel]

^^^^
What Goofball said. Genius. Sheer Genius. I wish I would have posted it myself.

[hasdgfas]

What kind of role do you think would target a claimed doctor?
(Quag was my second choice, btw. It was a really tough decision)

[Bookitty]

The only drawback I can see to this (and I'm voting Hasdgfas, so I agree in general with the case against him) is that if Hasd was scum and had targeted Peers, why would he push back against the imminent lynch of Peers? According to his own statements (which may or may not be true) Hasd believed Peers was likely immune to NKs. I've never seen a NK-immune doctor personally, but I suppose it's possible.

But if that's the case, then Hasd-scum would be more likely to push for Peers' lynch, not to defend him. Perhaps Hasd thought it was certain that Peers would be lynched anyway. But it's a small inconsistency, and one I wanted to point out.

[Toaster Strudel]

What kind of role do you think would target a claimed doctor?
(Quag was my second choice, btw. It was a really tough decision)

What kind of role would target a claimed doctor?

SCUM would be my #1 choice.
Serial Killer my #2 choice.

Certainly not a cop, or a tracker, or anything else I can thinjk of, because they would know that it's a totally wasted investigation. Unless it's Night 5 and the claimed Doctor is still alive, there is no reason.

Hasdagas, did you sent in the kill, and now you're afraid you've been tracked or something, so that you have cover up the real manner with which you targeted Peers?

If Quagmire was a close second choice to Peers, then it was a no-brainer, Quagmire should have been your only choice. Peers wasn't an option.

That's why I don't believe it, and you don't even need to claim.

Vote stays.

[hasdgfas]

town role, TS, because I'm not scum.

[Toaster Strudel]

if Hasd was scum and had targeted Peers, why would he push back against the imminent lynch of Peers?

Yesterday he KNEW that Peers was town?

According to his own statements (which may or may not be true) Hasd believed Peers was likely immune to NKs. I've never seen a NK-immune doctor personally, but I suppose it's possible.

That would be a crazy role, that would mean that a claimed cop could breeze his way to endgame. Now, there might be a few other reasons why the scum would NOT target the doctor. They did target the doctor after all, but if they hadn't, you could say that two scum groups counted on the other group to get rid of the Doctor, or that there was a more dangerous individual they wanted to be rid of, or thinking that a doctor that survives the night would be an easy lynch the next day anyway. Those would be poor choices, but not impossible.

What is interesting is that Hasd immediately jumped to the almost-conclusion that Peers was NK-immune. MY first thought when I saw Peers alive was that the scum were idiots, unless they wanted to WIFOM us into lynching the Doctor. I sure didn't think the Doctor might have been Doc-protected; nor did I consider that a Doctor might be NK-immune, not for an instant. What were YOUR first thoughts?

If you thought we had bungling scum instead of a NK-immune Doctor, then you have to believe that Hasd is scum that was puzzled by his DIRECT OBSERVATION that Peers had survived the NK target.

But if that's the case, then Hasd-scum would be more likely to push for Peers' lynch, not to defend him.

Not sure why that might be the case, perhaps I do not understand the question.

I know some of you don't buy into Hasd's semantic slip, but when you put everything in context, it fits.

[Setael]

Or, possibly, we could look for something besides your false dilemma and lynch someone like zu_faul or jordan, both of which have also been scummy.

Hey hasdfgas - what do you think is scummy about jordan? And if there are people you find scummy, why aren't you voting anyone?

I may have the wrong end of the stick with the underlined part, but why are you asking what's scummy about me when you're currently voting me?

Bad form, Jordan. My question to him has nothing to do with what I think or why I find you scummy. I'm asking him what HE THINKS is scummy about you since he said you've "been scummy" but hasn't stated what he finds scummy about you.

I'm quite suspicious of hasd, but I think this is stretching quite a bit, for the reasons Xyl outlined in Post 1709.

Same question for you. Why are you suspicious of hasd?

[Toaster Strudel]

town role, TS, because I'm not scum.

Sorry, there is no town role that would even consider targeting a Day 1 Doctor claim, for a second.

Especially when the alternative was a controversial player like Quagmire.

[Toaster Strudel]

More importantly, Setael, what is your opinion on Hasd's claim that he targeted Peers instead of Quagmire last night?

[Setael]

If hadf is our cop and he investigated the claimed doc last night, I give up. Town has no chance when our best power roles don't know what the hell they're doing.

He also shouldn't have outed himself so obviously, whatever he is. If he is town, I'm officially annoyed.

I'm really hoping he's scum at this point and that we have a real cop out there who will actually be useful.

[Bookitty]

Okay. If you believe that Hasd is scum, and that he targetted the doctor (Peers) and that Peers survived that (for a little while) and that Hasd knew that Peers was town (though there are possibly two scum groups here, werewolves and Mafia, so I don't know that scum would KNOW that someone was town)...

then, since Hasd couldn't explain why Peers survived... why would he make such statements? Why not let town go ahead and lynch Peers, which might have seemed likely? Hasd-scum, in this scenario, knows his nightkill didn't go through... so he knows that Peers was targeted... so if he can't NK the doc, why not try to lynch him? The doc surviving CAN'T be a good thing for scum.

If I were smart scum in this scenario, and I put in a kill and it didn't work, I would assume "no cross kill" protection, as opposed to "NK-immune doc", and I would push quite hard for Peers' lynch as a member of the opposing scum team that I would then assume existed. It's win win, because then I'd get the townie points for catching scum without losing anyone on my own team.

Tell me how my logic is wrong.

[Toaster Strudel]

One could speculate that with Hasd's NK failing, Hasd obtained some knowledge about Peers and the result of a night action, and he thought he could use this information to fake an information role.

Of course, it's a half-baked plan, because he can't justify why he would have targeted Peers as a townie, instead of Quagmire for instance.

[Bookitty]

But the action in fact did succeed, and apparently was just the result of a mod error and not a failed night action... so what information would Hasd have received, since the kill did in fact take place?

Don't get me wrong, I still think Hasdgfas is the right lynch... I'm just saying, I think there's a pretty big hole in this argument, because it depends on Hasd doing something I don't think scum would do.

[Toaster Strudel]

And another thing... a townie with an information role wouldn't rush to claim, when not even halfway to a lynch. Only a scum looking forward to setting his plan into motion, thinking it's a clever one.

But that's psychology, not fact.

[Toaster Strudel]

But the action in fact did succeed, and apparently was just the result of a mod error and not a failed night action... so what information would Hasd have received, since the kill did in fact take place?

I'm delighted to answer this question.

It's in the timing.

This what Hasd said early on Day2,

BEFORE

the mod mistake was uncovered.

"I believe peers' claim more today than i did yesterday."

WHY? Because he's un-NK'able Doctor? Shouldn't Has believe it LESS? Very strange, and I have a hunch that Hasd doesn't know what to do with what he knows at this point.

"Either Peers is NK immune or a town vig tried to kill him or, what I find most likely, scum tried to kill him."

Troubled semantics again.

Either Peers is NK-immune *or* scum tried to kill him.

THink about it. Hasd cannot come right out and say, "scum MUST have tried to kill him so he might be NK-immune". That's giving himself away. Therefore, he twists the normal sentence around to disguise that he knows for a fact that Peers was targeted by his scumgroup and the NK failed.

'However, I would like to know who Peers protected last night."

- Hasd is very curious about what the heck went wrong the previous night.

"I know one of two things. Either he's NK immune or someone tried to kill him. "

Again. That "or" should be an "and" - he doesn't know one of two things. He knows two things. (1) Someone tried to kill Peers AND (2) therefore Peers must be NK-immune. That's what he is REALLY saying, but he can't word it in the proper manner, it would mean that Hasd is scum. Hence another twisted sentence.

[Bookitty]

Hmmm, I can't argue this. I think you're right.

I had other reasons for voting him, and thus was voting him already, but... the notion that the first thing you'd assume was that Peers was a NK-immune doctor is sort of farfetched. Plus the thing about a town vig trying to kill the doctor... that's just weird.

I concede, you're right about this.

[Setael]

I have a theory, but I don't know if it's wise to say it at this point. Anything I can think of still leads to hasdf, if protown, having outed himself unnecessarily. So I'm still annoyed.

I don't think hasdf is the lynch for today. I think he's being wagoned to get a full claim out of him. I don't see any way his statements can be reconciled with him being scum. I agree with Bookitty about that and therefore find this statement weird:

Don't get me wrong, I still think Hasdgfas is the right lynch... I'm just saying, I think there's a pretty big hole in this argument, because it depends on Hasd doing something I don't think scum would do.

[Bookitty]

Setael, do you really think Hasd would have believed in the possibility of a NK-immune doctor? Doesn't that seem REALLY improbable to you?