Mini 1918: Paint Mafia Threequel! Game Over!

[Cheetory6]

VoteCount 2.07

Aristophanes [1]

- MaxwellPuckett

jjh927 [1]

- Fro99er

Not Voting [9]:

Apricity, aptil, Aristophanes, Bomberman, Gamma Emerald, Havo, jjh927, Raya36, Varsoon

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
You have (expired on 2017-06-20 10:00:00) to do so.

[jjh927]

I didn't post for ages just so you could have that pagetop and also because me saying anything else would serve no purpose.

[Cheetory6]

I guess we can still be friends even though you made fun of my voptecoun!

[Raya36]

What if mafia had to paint someone twice to turn them red? The first attempt with the red paint would paint them purple since that's a mix of the two colours and the second time would paint them completely red?

[aptil]

What if mafia had to paint someone twice to turn them red? The first attempt with the red paint would paint them purple since that's a mix of the two colours and the second time would paint them completely red?

I don't know about that Raya. Have you caught up with the thread ? Can you give your thoughts on what you happened so far ?

[aptil]

@Frog At the point of you voting for jj : Was it a pressure vote or did you want to flip him over any other person?

[Apricity]

Okay. First,

He was painted and ipped. I say we lynch him and assume the paint ability is one shot per night. This means thay we can truse the results more as we go and dont have to worry about the wine of his flip later.

It's sound theory

This post here bothers me to no end and feels like he's trying to rush the game before we talk things out

Second, someone said scum don't have blue paint? What about red paint? Do we know whether scum has that or not?

JJ, I feel like it'd be one hell of a coincidence because then 1) scum had to target you and pick red specifically assuming they have that, 2) this hypothetical town blue painter had to target you too, and 3) on top of that we just happened to color flip you today. I'm not sure how plausible that is.

[jjh927]

Occam's razor says that scum just painted me purple but I don't see why they'd do that.

I do see why they'd pick red. Next, I'm sure someone else could have figured out I was a good colour change target, especially someone who was thinking about it for their role. A town loyal painter's main purpose would be to recolour anyone who was recoloured by scum. Finally, number 3 is linked to both me being a good colour change target (because this is dependent on me being likely to be flipped) and also on me having been the colour change target (because scum have extra incentive to flip me).


And yeah, I discussed the possibility of them not having red paint, but nobody really wanted in on said discussion except for Bomber who misinterpreted it completely.

[Varsoon]

Just caught up reading so far
WIFOM about the paint mechanic isn't getting us anywhere and it's hard for me to tell what's an innocent assumption and what's scum trying to mislead people about it.
Reality is:
JJH began as Blue and became Purple, but was NOT informed of it--since no one else claimed this paint ability, we can assume it is a non-town effect.
JJH began as Purple and was hoping to gambit that he started blue and changed purple--this requires JJH to lean on the assumption that players can change to the color purple, but still reflects JJH lying for towncred.
JJH began as Red and became Purple, likely as a scum effect due to what I mentioned earlier, and was okay with their own flip because of their new purple status.

@Apricity: I agree with your latest post in that Aristophane's theory is too rush-oriented. It assumes/posits that only one player can be painted at night, which is dangerous if not true and would allow scum to hide in extra paint if so.
Furthermore, the lack of voting JJH while positing that theory is weird.

@Aristophanes: Why aren't you voting JJH if that's your theory? Also, explain where you're getting this "colors don't mix unless they are wet" idea?

@Bomberman: Cheetory has sidestepped the mid-game alignment change aspect of previous games because 'paint color' isn't your alignment. No matter your color, you still play for the same team you began on. However, when I brought up that Cheetory felt the first Paint Mafia was bastard, that was because scum could paint players BLUE and RED, which was too influential. For instance, if scum was color flipped as Blue, then town would almost never lynch them, which was quite a problem. Less so was town flipping red, because that would fuel one mislynch first but then have town be more skeptical of red flips after the fact. In the second game, notably, Scum could NOT paint anyone Blue.

@JJH: Why did you self-hammer? We've been over how that denies information to town. Also, why claim VT instead of just Town? Why are you talking about color mixing mechanics? Where are you getting the idea that colors mix if wet/dry? iirc, the wet/dry mechanic was only important in the first game as a way of seeing if a player was recently painted.

@Maxwell: Why assume 3P? And if assuming 3p, why don't you think JJH's purple flip reflects a third party--why does it HAVE to be that he was painted purple rather than a third party that starts off that way?

@Havo: Why are you assuming that colors 'mix' like that? I don't think colors 'mixed' like that in ANY of the previous games, iirc.

[Havo]

@Havo: Why are you assuming that colors 'mix' like that? I don't think colors 'mixed' like that in ANY of the previous games, iirc.

It's because Red and Blue would make Purple. If he had flipped just about any other color I wouldn't have thought that. LIke white or black. Just made sense to me that if he HAD been blue, that being painted with red would have made him Purple. Someone said scum couldn't paint Blue in the last game.

[Havo]

I didn't post for ages just so you could have that pagetop and also because me saying anything else would serve no purpose.

smh. Why would you even post this?

[Havo]

Okay. First,

He was painted and ipped. I say we lynch him and assume the paint ability is one shot per night. This means thay we can truse the results more as we go and dont have to worry about the wine of his flip later.

It's sound theory

This post here bothers me to no end and feels like he's trying to rush the game before we talk things out

I think this is a classic test balloon. The little smiley face on the end says, "I was joking" when actually he wasn't. Just seeing if anyone will go along with it.

But I actually don't think it's a bad idea tbh.

[Varsoon]

So you're just assuming that the mechanic works that way despite having no evidence besides basing your expectation off of real life colors?

[Havo]

What if mafia had to paint someone twice to turn them red? The first attempt with the red paint would paint them purple since that's a mix of the two colours and the second time would paint them completely red?

I think it's plausible, but that means it takes 2 nights to paint someone and that seems a little too weak of a mafia ability to me. Unless they could paint multiple targets at night, then I think it would be much more realistic.

[Varsoon]

This is precisely why I think discussing mechanics that we don't fully understand is a distraction.
We need to focus in on scumhunting and working towards a lynch.

I'm glad that you're posting more than just answering about color, Havo.

[Havo]

So you're just assuming that the mechanic works that way despite having no evidence besides basing your expectation off of real life colors?

Yes, but I'm just throwing it out as a possibility for discussion. I'm not saying that's the way it is.

Just spit balling.

[Havo]

This is precisely why I think discussing mechanics that we don't fully understand is a distraction.
We need to focus in on scumhunting and working towards a lynch.

I'm glad that you're posting more than just answering about color, Havo.

I agree, we don't need to get lost in game theory and mechanics. Purple is just a distraction at this point.

So sticking to scum hunting and calling out scummy posts is the way to go IMO at this point.

[jjh927]

@JJH: Why did you self-hammer? We've been over how that denies information to town. Also, why claim VT instead of just Town? Why are you talking about color mixing mechanics? Where are you getting the idea that colors mix if wet/dry? iirc, the wet/dry mechanic was only important in the first game as a way of seeing if a player was recently painted.

Reasons for self-hammer: when I asked Frog about self-hammering with those exact concerns he said self-hammering was a good thing somehow and I just took him at word after his reluctance to explain it immediately. I also wanted to be conftown, regardless of any doubts in my mind about being recoloured, though I was mentally prepared for the worst if it came to that. Lastly we were coming close to deadline and it was going to happen anyway.

I fullclaimed because it seemed like something sensible. I highly doubt I'm getting nightkilled after this colour flip.

Purple is a mixture of blue and red. I can understand why scum would colour me red, but not purple, and the only town role I can think of to do with painting would be a loyal one designed to recolour townspeople blue. So I feel this is a legitimate possibility.

Real life. Colours mix if wet, but not if dry. We can disregard this completely tbh; if colours mixed, it's because I was painted by two different sources in the same night. The scum likely did not mix their red with the blue I began the game with.

[Havo]

I still think we shold've flipped Gamma.

[jjh927]

And Varsoon- this is the part where I analyse my colourflip wagon.

[jjh927]

VOTE: Aristophanes

Not much analysis required there, actually.

[Havo]

Hope all goes well dude.

Thanks. One of these days we can actually play a game of normal mafia. I really need to read these setups before I join.

Goodnight

Aww poor TwoFace!

Well play again some time! Sorry you got the shit end of this stick <3

VOTE: TwoFace

We're flipping Bomber or jjjh I think.

VOTE: jjjh

I'm so far behind. Did we flip anyone yet?

We flipped me and I'm purple, Ari.

Awesome!

Why would scum paint you first?

He was painted and ipped. I say we lynch him and assume the paint ability is one shot per night. This means thay we can truse the results more as we go and dont have to worry about the wine of his flip later.

It's sound theory

I'm just gonna put this here for now, so I can refer to it later if I need too.

[Varsoon]

I think that, if we were in a normal game with a 2 week deadline, that discussion would have more of a place and we could explore it. However, we've got 3 days to get to a lynch here.
As I said earlier, it's kind of hard to suss out, in mechanics discussion alone, what is town making assumptions and what is scum providing misleading information.

Havo, what do you think of the JJH color flip?
Specifically, what do you think of the color wagon on JJH and player's positioning after that?
If not JJH, then who do you believe is scum and what are you doing to push there?

P-EDIT: Glad we can be on the same page, Havo. Hope that these questions get us there moreso.

@JJH: I'm not seeing where fro99er pushed you to self-hammer. I see them asking Gamma if Gamma would self-hammer, though. What do you think about fro99er's push on you?
Your 775 seems to reflect that you know that someone else hammering is another vote with analysis potential. Why did you self-hammer when we still had 24 hours left?
You were talking with Raya about self-hammers and seemed to express that you saw no worth in self-hammers, whereas Raya did posit that they felt town would be a bit more comfortable self-hammering.
I'm trying to understand why, after that discussion, you decided to Self-hammer on that page, where you caught two votes and huge momentum was coming your way anyway.

Blah. That answer about not getting nightkilled bothers me. If you're scum, no shit you're not getting NK'd. If you're town, then you're not getting NK'd BECAUSE you claimed VT, meaning scum now has a smaller pool of players to choose from to hit potential PRs. That said, I don't see scum painting you and then not just keeping you alive for WIFOM if you are town.

So, you, too, are getting paint mixing mechanics from a place purely of speculation? It's weird that so many people are, imo, given there's no evidence for it aside from IRL paint. Regardless, please don't focus on discussion of assumed mechanics.

[aptil]

VOTE: Aristophanes

Not much analysis required there, actually.

Explain it anyways.

[jjh927]

He asked whether Gamma would self-hammer, then I asked why self-hammering is beneficial. There was a discussion on it. Me asking the question seemed to make him vote me for some reason. I don't know how you're missing that.

He didn't personally tell me to self-hammer but I assume he would have done. Also we did not have 24 hours left. I believe we had 10.

Read the full discussion on self hammers if you want me to talk about it any more.




On the nightkill stuff, after flipping purple there's always gonna be this suspicion from town. Also sunken cost fallacy may be a fallacy but it's still a thing.