Mini Normal 1917: :X Mafia (Game over!)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

via POE? i thought there was more to your read but ok

talk to me about your townreads then

[Backhand]

Sorry busy weekend--as I've said, I'm OK with a nero lynch but still think NM/Vedith makes more sense. GT coming in and doing a lot is good for my feelings about the DRK slot.

[NotTheRealPaul]

i tunneled you in our last game and hard townread scum >_>

also ive replaced into games and done absolutely nothing before so lmfao

skitter fooled everybody and i was an idiot.

You and GL really were driving forces. Gelped that you obvtowned ao hard.

[Vedith]

Day One, the player in your slot was... ridiculously quiet. Said basically nothing of consequence until he hit L-1, and even then said the very minimum. Was close on policy lynched, until a second wagon was started on the slot that Kraska replaced into. Eventually, the lynch was down to between PenguinPower and Kraska; PenguinPower died (flipping Town) and Kraska narrowly (very narrowly) lived.

Also, during Day One, NotTheRealPaul got a vote or two and immediately (and unnecessarily) softed a PR pretty noticeably.

Night one, there was no kill. (My theory is that the Doctor and the Mafia both hit NTRP for his PR softing)

Early in Day Two, MuttonChopMagic and Kraska revealed that Kraska had got a PM overnight stating that MuttonChopMagic was innocent. MuttonChopMagic revealed that he was a Friendly Neighbour with a 1xLoyal modifier - the fact that Kraska had received his message meant Kraska must be Townsided as well. Which means that the two of them are either both Town or both Mafia and pulling off a massive bluff. (But both Town seems more likely to me - MCM can prove that by Friendly-Neighbouring more people in future nights).

--------------

So much for the highlights. Now, on to more speculative matters. Looking at the wagon on Not_Mafia (which is your slot - it's been through several players) yesterday, and comparing it to the votes on the proven-Townie PenguinPower lynch wagon, I notice that (if one ignores the likely-town MCM, Kraska and NTRP) three names are on both wagons - Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty. Considering that the day one wagon on your slot was basically an easy policy lynch, the only way I can imagine that there wasn't a heavy scum presence on your wagon was if you yourself are scum. So, if you're Town, then at least one or two of those three pretty much have to be scum - while, on the flip side, if you're scum then I would assume that those three are all likely to be Town (in which case Nero Cain is very likely one of your scumbuddies).

I think you have a pretty decent chance of being scum, and the information we get from verification of your slot is massively valuable.

So, for a start, I don't care about your read on me, so it's a waste of an opinion towards me.

However, explain to me how you come to the idea that either scum was on my wagon, or all town was and I'm scum?
Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty - What do you think of these 3 players from how they played so far?

[NotTheRealPaul]

Sorry busy weekend--as I've said, I'm OK with a nero lynch but still think NM/Vedith makes more sense. GT coming in and doing a lot is good for my feelings about the DRK slot.

What about NM/Vedith lynch makes it better than nero lynch? Is it in an information thing like CCC wants or do you think that slot is scummier

[Backhand]

Sorry busy weekend--as I've said, I'm OK with a nero lynch but still think NM/Vedith makes more sense. GT coming in and doing a lot is good for my feelings about the DRK slot.

What about NM/Vedith lynch makes it better than nero lynch? Is it in an information thing like CCC wants or do you think that slot is scummier

My thinking is similar to ccc's, with the added benefit of knowing I'm town so I was not scum on the wagon. I do think he highlighted the wrong votecounts though, I would look at:

Vote Count 1.12

Not_Mafia (6): Not_Mafia, Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (2): CCC, MuttonChopMagic
Backhand (1): Grendel
CCC (1): Hiraki
Cheetory6 (1): SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald, Nero Cain


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

Not_Mafia has been prodded.

Vote Count 1.13

Not_Mafia (5): Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (4): CCC, MuttonChopMagic, SlingshotWaffles, Nero Cain
Cheetory6 (1): Not_Mafia
CCC (1): Hiraki
PenguinPower (1): Grendel

Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

Searching for a replacement for Gamma Emerald.

Again, Not_Mafia is actually in danger, and a bad wagon pops up on gamma. That is what makes me suspicious of the slot, and the fact that some people who are also scummy in waffles/nero did the driving makes me feel that much better about it.

[NotTheRealPaul]

So you think there is a possible waffles, nero, NM scumteam?

Im much more in favor of a nero lynch, as NM hasnt done anything particularly scummy. I'll wait to see how Vedith plays but Im not toally against NM lynch.

[Vedith]

NTRP is probably scum here. But I'll think about it.

[CCC]

So, for a start, I don't care about your read on me, so it's a waste of an opinion towards me.

However, explain to me how you come to the idea that either scum was on my wagon, or all town was and I'm scum?
Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty - What do you think of these 3 players from how they played so far?

Okay, first off, Not_Mafia was silent. I mean,

really

silent. He was a late sub into a slot belonging to someone who literally never posted a single in-game post.

Go look at his ISO. Look at the dates on the post. That first vote of his? That's on his own slot. (bigbenwd was the player who never turned up). Over the course of the following week, he then posts a grand total of six posts, containing such gems as "whoah I need to read" and other such alignment-null comments. (That unvote of his? That was

after

the wagon on him had already hit L-1).

So. He was a dead-null player, with emphasis on "dead". This makes him a very easy policy lynch; there were arguments being made that this is

not

a player one wants around in MYLO or LYLO, and someone (Backhand, I think?) went so far as to gather data to suggest that day-one lynches are generally not much better than random chance

anyway

.

And, let me reiterate, he hit L-1.

So. Two options. Either you are scum or you are not.

Let us consider first the case where you are scum. In this case, the Mafia must have been in a panic. One of their own, up for the lynch - and so early, for such terrible reasons? They would have grabbed the next-most-popular wagon and pushed it,

hard

. (As Backhand points out, there were a rapid pair of votes added to the next-most-popular wagon around then).

Alternatively, it is still possible that you may have been Town. If you were Town, then either the wagon on your slot already had scum on it, or it was pure Town. But - if you were Town, and the wagon on you was pure Town, then

why

would Mafia not have hammered you? Your slot's lynch was a policy lynch, no-one was suggesting that the slot had any more chance than anyone else of being scum - what better lynch to be able to walk away from after townflip and just shrug?

So, yeah. Either you're scum, or there's scum on your wagon.

--------------

Which brings us to the next point. Backhand, Cheetory, DeathRowKitty. The first two I've been Townreading; DRK I had been reading as scum but that's changed somewhat after Gigabyte replaced in. All three reads were fairly light, and tone-based, and therefore could well be wrong; before Gigabyte's replace-in, had you flipped Town, I would have wanted to vote DRK next. Now, I'm... less certain which way to pick between them.

Nonetheless. If that happens, I'll deal with it when it does. Right now, I'm thinking you're more likely to flip scum than most other players at any rate.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

if scum had a completely null partner wouldnt they be fine bussing it since it's an infoless lynch that could be used to give them towncredit

or better yet do nothing about it and push other people as bussers

[CCC]

So you think there is a possible waffles, nero, NM scumteam?

Im much more in favor of a nero lynch, as NM hasnt done anything particularly scummy. I'll wait to see how Vedith plays but Im not toally against NM lynch.

Don't know about Backhand, but I can think of several possible scumteams involving Nero. Waffles might be swapped out for Grendel, and if Not_Mafia is somehow Town, then at least one of {Backhand, Cheetory, GigabyteTroubadour} pretty much has to be on the list (possibly two, if Nero is swapped out as well).

[Vedith]

Okay, first off, Not_Mafia was silent. I mean, really silent. He was a late sub into a slot belonging to someone who literally never posted a single in-game post.

NM is always silent in games. And even if not normally, I have no care.

So. Two options. Either you are scum or you are not.

That's how Mafia normally works, correct.

Let us consider first the case where you are scum. In this case

Again, you can consider this with others, but I don't care about it and it's a waste of response to me.

So, yeah. Either you're scum, or there's scum on your wagon.

It's plausible that there are scum on my wagon, but I want reasons to why. Town can be bad when it comes to day 1 wagon, I'm highly unlikely to scum read someone with that information alone.

Which brings us to the next point. Backhand, Cheetory, DeathRowKitty. The first two I've been Townreading; DRK I had been reading as scum but that's changed somewhat after Gigabyte replaced in. All three reads were fairly light, and tone-based, and therefore could well be wrong; before Gigabyte's replace-in, had you flipped Town, I would have wanted to vote DRK next. Now, I'm... less certain which way to pick between them.

Nonetheless. If that happens, I'll deal with it when it does. Right now, I'm thinking you're more likely to flip scum than most other players at any rate.

Why were you town reading them? Gut?
Why is DRK scum (or was)? give me examples why.

[CCC]

if scum had a completely null partner wouldnt they be fine bussing it since it's an infoless lynch that could be used to give them towncredit

or better yet do nothing about it and push other people as bussers

So, you're saying that even if Not_Mafia was scum, there could still have been scum on his wagon? Or there might not have been?

...that's disturbingly plausible, and does rather reduce the information that could be gained from a Vedith lynch.

[Vedith]

So, you're saying that even if Not_Mafia was scum, there could still have been scum on his wagon? Or there might not have been?

...that's disturbingly plausible, and does rather reduce the information that could be gained from a Vedith lynch.

I've seen you play and I don't believe that this hasn't occured to you before.

[Backhand]

if scum had a completely null partner wouldnt they be fine bussing it since it's an infoless lynch that could be used to give them towncredit

or better yet do nothing about it and push other people as bussers

Possibly, sure. But I would argue that people were treating the slot as Town while saying it was null, and as scum I'd want to keep the person around for sure. Maybe they didn't *think* they were doing that, but none of our scumreads yesterday were very strong, in my opinion. The "null" slot should have received more consideration.

[CCC]

So, yeah. Either you're scum, or there's scum on your wagon.

It's plausible that there are scum on my wagon, but I want reasons to why. Town can be bad when it comes to day 1 wagon, I'm highly unlikely to scum read someone with that information alone.

Short version: If there was no scum on your slot's wagon, and your slot was Town, then that meant that every single member of the Mafia decided not to take a easy hammer that was pretty much handed to them on a silver platter.

That's all there is to it.

Which brings us to the next point. Backhand, Cheetory, DeathRowKitty. The first two I've been Townreading; DRK I had been reading as scum but that's changed somewhat after Gigabyte replaced in. All three reads were fairly light, and tone-based, and therefore could well be wrong; before Gigabyte's replace-in, had you flipped Town, I would have wanted to vote DRK next. Now, I'm... less certain which way to pick between them.

Nonetheless. If that happens, I'll deal with it when it does. Right now, I'm thinking you're more likely to flip scum than most other players at any rate.

Why were you town reading them? Gut?
Why is DRK scum (or was)? give me examples why.

Gut. All gut, for all three of them. DRK looked slightly scummy because of some early day one posts and never did anything to change that. Posts like this one just looked rather scummish to me.

[Vedith]

Short version: If there was no scum on your slot's wagon, and your slot was Town, then that meant that every single member of the Mafia decided not to take a easy hammer that was pretty much handed to them on a silver platter.

That's all there is to it.

So that's your only reason? Because of odds, or what?

Gut. All gut, for all three of them. DRK looked slightly scummy because of some early day one posts and never did anything to change that. Posts like this one just looked rather scummish to me.

Okay, so give me your entire reads now it's day 2. If you only have gut for reads today (other than mine, again, I don't care there) then we're done.

[CCC]

So, you're saying that even if Not_Mafia was scum, there could still have been scum on his wagon? Or there might not have been?

...that's disturbingly plausible, and does rather reduce the information that could be gained from a Vedith lynch.

I've seen you play and I don't believe that this hasn't occured to you before.

Nobody's perfect. I did think that if N_M was Scum, then the people on his wagon would be probable Town; I wasn't thinking in terms of the Mafia deliberately abandoning one of their own until gigabyte pointed out how it would look from the Mafia perspective.

There aren't many Mafia. A successful lynch on the first day leaves Mafia far more vulnerable to bad luck.

[Vedith]

Nobody's perfect.

I am.

[CCC]

Short version: If there was no scum on your slot's wagon, and your slot was Town, then that meant that every single member of the Mafia decided not to take a easy hammer that was pretty much handed to them on a silver platter.

That's all there is to it.

So that's your only reason? Because of odds, or what?

Yep. Do you want me to put figures to that?

Gut. All gut, for all three of them. DRK looked slightly scummy because of some early day one posts and never did anything to change that. Posts like this one just looked rather scummish to me.

Okay, so give me your entire reads now it's day 2. If you only have gut for reads today (other than mine, again, I don't care there) then we're done.

Town:

CCC - mod PM
MCM, Kraska - mutual vouching via MCM's Friendly Neighbour with 1xLoyal modifier
NTRP - Most likely Doctor target (note no lynch last night)

Gut reads: Backhand, Cheetory, Hiraki, Gigabyte

Likely Scum:
Nero: Heavily scumread by strong Townreads. Suspicious voting behaviours.
SlingshotWaffles: Could have been rolefishing. Also suspicious voting behaviours.
Vedith/Not_Mafia: Likely beneficiary of 'rescue wagon' by Nero/Waffles as described in previous posts
Grendel: Also could have been rolefishing; plus heavily scumread by strong Townreads

(Yes, I know I have four people under "likely scum")

[gigabyteTroubadour]

wait why is paul a likely doc target

[SlingshotWaffles]

So because your TRs SR people, you SR them?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i mean i was like that when i was new and early game i still read like that

own reads > others tho always

[CCC]

wait why is paul a likely doc target

Because he rather heavily softed PR on Day One. (After only one or two votes, he seemed to panic a bit).

So because your TRs SR people, you SR them?

Yes? If I Townread someone, it means I think they're telling the truth. Also, my gut is - not good at the whole scumhunting thing, so I find it worthwhile to listen to other people's guts as well.

[Vedith]

Yep. Do you want me to put figures to that?

No, because your reason is trash.