Newbie 1797: Space | Endgame

[Plotinus]

VC 3.04

The Perseus Cluster Waves

Explanation: The cosmic swirl and slosh of giant waves in an enormous reservoir of glowing hot gas are traced in this enhanced X-ray image from the Chandra Observatory. The frame spans over 1 million light-years across the center of the nearby Perseus Galaxy Cluster, some 240 million light-years distant. Like other clusters of galaxies, most of the observable mass in the Perseus cluster is in the form of the cluster-filling gas. With temperatures in the tens of millions of degrees, the gas glows brightly in X-rays. Computer simulations can reproduce details of the structures sloshing through the Perseus cluster's X-ray hot gas, including the remarkable concave bay seen below and left of center. About 200,000 light-years across, twice the size of the Milky Way, the bay's formation indicates that Perseus itself was likely grazed by a smaller galaxy cluster billions of years ago.

Image and text credit

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BlackVoid

(2): Human Sequencer, skitter30

L-2

NotTheRealPaul

(1): Dunkerdoodles

Not Voting

(3): NotTheRealPaul, esires, BlackVoid

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

The day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2017-07-06 19:59:10)

Mod Notes

Hi, I'm the backup mod!

-ThinkBig, the moderator, is V/LA on weekends and on Jewish holidays. Plotinus, the backup moderator, will be modding during this time.
-skitter30 is V/LA on shabbat and Jewish holidays.
Skitter30 is V/LA until today.

[esires]

@Void - I actually see where you're coming from on my move to Drixx. But basically, once my vote was on him, nothing he did made me feel like I should move it off of him, so there it stayed. I also now realize that I never posted what I intended to post about NC and Drixx on D1. Drixx only mentions NC a couple of times and it's very noncommittal - in his read list he essentially just says there's not enough from NC to go on, then moves on. There's very little coming from Drixx regarding NC the entire time NC was in the game. And then you join, and Drixx ends the day with a self-vote, preventing the need for you to post a stance one way or another on Drixx prior to his flip. It looks to me like the scum strategy this game may have been to coast under the radar and stay distanced from one another, and Drixx wouldn't have had a chance to check in with you yet at that point to get on the same page, since you weren't around for a night phase yet.

[BlackVoid]

I thought you said earlier that Drixx's self-vote could mean that either he doesn't want me to catch up and post thoughts or he wants to eliminate the need for me to do so. Now, that subtly shifted into being pretty sure he ended the day for the latter reason after you realized I'd be coming after you.

See the problem with your vote compared to everyone else's was that you felt like you were engaging Drixx or trying to figure out his alignment. That's the massive difference I noticed from how HS and skitter interacted with Drixx and how you did. Nothing you did felt like you were trying to engage him, empathize with his position, and trying to figure out his alignment. You gave a really, really weak reason: that you are compelled to vote him until he explains whether or not he thinks HS's post was a deliberate attempt at obfuscation. That doesn't make any sense. It looks like you loosely paraphrased stuff that HS and skitter said before your post, and used that as justification. It does make more sense to me from a partner-perspective where you anticipated the winds turning against Drixx and put your vote down for the record.

There's also the fact that you kept insisting that Drixx and HS could be scum together leaving you open to switch to HS if the tide turned (which it didn't) but you drop it for the most part once Drixx is lynched and it doesn't look like HS is a viable lynch.

[esires]

I've been pretty vocal about my feelings towards Drixx all game long. Not repeating myself every time I post doesn't mean everything I thought up to that point stops mattering. And where did I say I was pretty sure he self-hammered to prevent your thoughts? I simply said his hammering served that purpose - I did not speculate that it's definitely why he did it. And prior to knowing a player's alignment through a flip, or having conftown through claims, I'm going to leave the possibility that they're scum open - HS included. This is a BS misrep of what I've said and done - wonder why?

[BlackVoid]

Okay, this is stopping to be productive. I don't think you are trying to figure out my alignment here. Just re-iterating what you think are generally accepted reasons for my slot being scum.

[skitter30]

Hi! I'm back

So, I was reading through the last page or so, and I was *really* liking BV's content, and you've inspired me to ISO esires so I can evaluate all that you've been saying. And then I see that the two of you were talking to each other, which was making me happy, because I'm pretty sure scum is one of the two of you. And whichever of you is scum knows that today's mislynch option is the other one, so I wanted to see how you'd interact and how you'd be pushing each other.

So, I didn't like this last post by BV:

Okay, this is stopping to be productive. I don't think you are trying to figure out my alignment here. Just re-iterating what you think are generally accepted reasons for my slot being scum.

because it cut short that interaction. Although, I agree that esires does not seem to be evaluating BV's posts from day3, and is just repeating older arguments.

So, now that BV is done with his catchup and seems to have settled on esires probably being scum, I'm going to:

1. ISO esires and esires/Drixx in order to see if I think BV's arguments bear merit

2. Reread BV's day 3 posts, especially the ones from over the weekend that I only skimmed

3. ISO NC/Drixx (and BV/Drixx, but they didn't overlap for that long)

I'll be around for a bit today, and will try to do at least one of these today too

[BlackVoid]

I didn't really respond to that point because it stopped being useful. I tried more than once to try and work with esires and understand his viewpoints and where he's coming from but everytime he responded it just felt bland and robotic and didn't really feel like he was trying to solve the game. He like me has been similarly suspected during this game and he'd know that the biggest threat of town losing the game is if we're both town. But he hasn't actually tried to evaluate those possibilities or make sure that it's not the case or just scumhunt in general. He's just popping in from time to time to offer a token defense and re-iterating old stuff. It's that lack of drive that's strengthened my scumread a bit and also didn't feel it's all that useful to try to engage him at this point.

[NotTheRealPaul]

BV is town. The way he is pushing esires, if its a mislynch he is the next obvious lymch. Thats just a losing plan if BV is scum.

That said, what happened to HS? I know I said I hard townread you and I still do, but im starting to worry at the lack of contribution. Im imagining a scenario where HS is scum and trying to coast of the Drixx lynch via their argument.

@HS what are your thoughts on BV?

[skitter30]

UNVOTE:

@BV: I totally get what you're saying. I just really don't want to mislynch today, so I'm trying to be methodical and evaluate all possibilities.

@BV and esires: Can both of you talk to me about your current thoughts on Paul?

@Paul: At the end of day2, when I was discussing with Tess about whether you could be Drixx's partner, you were kinda quiet. What were you thinking during that discussion?

@HS: Have BV's recent posts caused you to reevaluate your vote on him? What are you thinking about esires?

[BlackVoid]

I think he's town but he's my weakest read because his style of play is very different from mine and I can't always figure out what he's thinking at each point. What struck me upon reading your previous newbie game with him was that he had pretty good instincts even if he couldn't always articulate them well. At the point he got lynched, he had his vote on you although he wasn't winning an argument there. I think it's more likely he had a gut instinct that Drixx was scum than that he was bussing. He also responds pretty harshly to Drixx saying that he was getting pocketed and almost getting offended and I don't know why he'd do that to a partner. There were some things that bothered me because he seems a bit too keen to take credit for pushing Drixx saying that Dunker copied his Drixx case and that he was the first on the Drixx wagon but I think those are probably by-products of the newbie game too - he wanted to make sure he was seen pushing his scumread so the same thing doesn't happen again. I think his latest post is a slight towntell. He'd have no reason to townread me and throw paranoia at HS when if he's scum, he's already in a decent spot to win by pushing me and esires.

[BlackVoid]

I also thought his rationale for townreading you here for being more aggressive than in the Comics game was absolutely dead on. That was when it started to sink in for me that with the playstyle you have, being so aggressive as scum would be really difficult. I have a tough time seeing you tunnel Dunker all of D1 to the point of getting him to L-1 and almost lynched (except his claim saved him) as scum.

[NotTheRealPaul]

@skitters can u gimme post numbers? I dont remember what ur referring to.

@BV thanks? I think I saw a compliment in there lol. Ya if I was scum I'd have ez road by supporting u woth esires, then u. NK Dunkers since Drixx already outlined that thought process so it wouldnt be sus OMGUS. Then NK skitters prob. Not that it would matter at athat point.

[NotTheRealPaul]

If esires is town, then aim looking at skitters/HS as Drixx's partner. Mostly need to reread akitters/drixx D2 since skitters wasnt on wagon but Id lean HS more since he has barely contributed D3 and I barely remember anything from him d2 post Drixx argument.

Typing that out now, im getting worried about HS. Didnt Drixx say he made a completely legit case against partner in another game and town didnt believe, so partner was able to coast rest of game?

[NotTheRealPaul]

Im tryna figurw out scum!drixx's motivation in his near reversal of his HS read and why he pushed HS so hard. Like did he think he could take control of town and lead us through two mislynches? Because I feel like scum doesnt try to do that especially when it would have been easier to just nudge HS since there were already a few scumreads on him.

Like Im seeing a narrative where Drixx made a whole deal out of HS situation so when either flipped the other could coast to LyLo. When it became obvious he was the one who would be lynched his read changed despite the super hard push earlier and complete conviction.

Also he was pushing an HS/esires scumteam a bit and I dont get it. Scum needed two mislynches so if HS flipped town then he would have had a harder time pushing esires through.

fuuuuuuck im confused. am i going crazy?

[skitter30]

@BV: Thanks for the Paul read! I was kinda seeing a semi-plausible path to victory for you involving mislynching esires, killing me and/or HS tonight and trying to mislynch Paul tomorrow using Dunker's suspicion of him, but your last posts about Paul are going to make it *very* hard for you to do that lol. I haven't reread through esires yet, but I'm considering voting for him.

The other thing about esires that has been kinda hard for me is that his line of reasoning has generally been kinda similar to mine, which is making me more partial to him in general. Like, a lot of his posts are kinda ones that I can see myself writing (sometimes even before I write them), so I find myself agreeing to them without looking at them too closely. Hence, reread.

Also, I agree with you about Paul - his style of play is a bit hard for me to parse sometimes since I can't really tell what he's thinking always, but he also seems *very* genuine and, like you said, has very good instincts. <3

And as for me, yeah, that I have a pretty decent towngame, imo, and get kinda aggressive when I think I have something, but I haven't really figured out how to replicate that in my scumgames yet

@Paul:
See 747, and then 868- 874, and then a discussion goes on for a bit starting at 956.

Yeah, I'd like to hear some more from HS too. I think you're misremembering what Drixx said - he said he'd played a game as town where he outlined exactly what scum did, and was completely right, but no one listened to him.

[skitter30]

@Paul: I dunno. I think that spat occurred just before he went on medical v/la - he seemed really irritated about HS's posting style, so maybe he just wasn't feeling that well, and was annoyed about HS's posts and that kinda bled into his mislynch attempt?

I think he initially was nudging HS - end of day 1, me and you and maybe Tess (I have to check, I don't quite remember) were all suspicious of HS. Wait, I remember writing about this before . . .

Found it:

as Drixx went ahead and started a wagon on HS without seeing what others really thought

This isn't true. Tess was already voting HS and trying to push a wagon on him, so Drixx knew he at least wouldn't be opposed to this wagon. And I'd been implying that I was thinking HS was Dunker's partner (clearly this isn't a thing anymore). You'd been implying a scumread on him. If anything, he knew this was a safe, uncontroversial place to push.

So, I think Drixx initially pushed HS since he knew there were a bunch of potential votes there. Then they got into a fight, and then he went on v/la, and his read on HS just kinda disappeared, and he didn't really push anyone after that.

Like Im seeing a narrative where Drixx made a whole deal out of HS situation so when either flipped the other could coast to LyLo. When it became obvious he was the one who would be lynched his read changed despite the super hard push earlier and complete conviction.

But I don't get why he'd just drop the read if they were partners. If he was trying to distance HS, why not just stay on HS straight through the day? I think when he saw the HS push wasn't really happening, he tried to backtrack a bit, but, as we saw, it didn't work out that well.

Also he was pushing an HS/esires scumteam a bit and I dont get it. Scum needed two mislynches so if HS flipped town then he would have had a harder time pushing esires through.

I don't remember Drixx suggesting a HS/esires team, but I'll look for it later. I don't think I agree here, since if HS fliped town, I think he could just say something like, 'well, I was wrong about HS, but esires is still scum, but now I have to reevaluate and look for his partner'.

[NotTheRealPaul]

VOTE: Esires I still think this is more likely scum

I want HS' opinion before any sorta hammer though.

[Human Sequencer]

Just about to go on a drive, will be back later.

My opinion is that bv is scum desperately searching for towncred in his catch-up.

Look at the way his opinions change while he's catching up, and compare that to the reactions his opinions are getting in herald as he's making it.

[NotTheRealPaul]

reactions are getting in herald?

[BlackVoid]

@HS, can you go over what towntells you noticed from esires?

[BlackVoid]

Like Im seeing a narrative where Drixx made a whole deal out of HS situation so when either flipped the other could coast to LyLo. When it became obvious he was the one who would be lynched his read changed despite the super hard push earlier and complete conviction.

Also he was pushing an HS/esires scumteam a bit and I dont get it. Scum needed two mislynches so if HS flipped town then he would have had a harder time pushing esires through.

I was considering this possibility all afternoon when I was thinking about the game. The surviving scum is the roleblocker so if Drixx and HS were setting up the bus, they would likely set it up so that Drixx is the one that goes down.

If esires and Drixx are the scumteam, Drixx would obviously want to make it harder to push esires so I could see him pushing a town-HS as his primary push and once he flipped town, he isn't really compelled to attack esires because his reasoning was that esires was HS's partner.

Our discussion this morning made me a lot more convinced that both you and skitter are town, and at the same time, I'm somewhat underwhelmed by HS's reaction to me and lack of engaging me. I need to re-read esires and HS really closely to figure out if I'm missing anything here.

[BlackVoid]

I do remember you. Your play was very strong, either you were obvtown or you made me believe you were obvtown. Were you Sharon's partner? I don't remember, that game is mostly blocked from my memory.

Since I'm your top suspect here and you have personal experience with me, why not go back and check what alignment I was and how I played?

[skitter30]

My opinion is that bv is scum desperately searching for towncred in his catch-up.

Look at the way his opinions change while he's catching up

I am slightly worried about this. His reads changed a lot over the course of his catch-up. I'm trying to decide if they evolved naturally, or if after reading the game, BV realized that esires is today's obvious mislynch, and just went with that.

@BV:

Can you elaborate on why you were thinking this at the end of day2?

I'm leaning more scum than town on skitter.

Was this based on posts I made early in the game which you read as you were catching up, or was this from posts I made after you replaced in?

[BlackVoid]

Based on the posts you made early in the game as I was catching up. I explain this in 1027.

[Human Sequencer]

I get a lot more of a frantic last-ditch attempt feeling from BV's posts than I do from esires.

It's difficult for me to engage with this game because it feels won to me.

Somebody's probably gonna say something dumb like 'HS is scum coasting to victory after a hard bus' and I'm gonna lol.