OPEN 687: JUNGLE OLIGARCHY (GAME OVER)

[RadiantCowbells]

@Dunn: if you're town then yes Comm is scum. So is Vedith. Keep in mind that we have 4 scum alive at this point in the game.
There's still no town majority and we can't afford to split the votes.

I am doing my best to give you the benefit of the doubt as well considering that Vedith is the one person I think you're credibly aligned with and you're trying to start a second wagon.

If you're scum and we are forced into kingmaker there is no one in this game I would give the win to over you unless it turned out you deliberately fucked town over. If you're scum just bus.

[Dunnstral]

comm has been maf slipping?

Why vedith

[RadiantCowbells]

Werewolf is a better lynch because if we lynch mafia we have no good way of threatening the werewolves to not shoot since the last mafiosi would claim under pressure tomorrow anyway.
Vedith I believe is werewolf given how quickly he jumped onto BTD6 but I could also see him as mafia with CommKnight and his flip would be fantastically informative for that reason.
If Vedith isn't werewolf and you're town then lynching Comm is probably hitting mafia anyway. If Vedith is werewolf then

Tge other thing is that I have a fairly strong idea of what every slot in the game stands alignment wise but I could easily see Vedith as both factions and with huge sets of people.

If we go into a lynch or lose without a Vedith flip the game is going to be way, way harder than it needs to be.

[Kmd4390]

I'm here. I read yesterday's stuff. A little lost in all the replacements to be honest, but I'd guess on a vedith/comm mafia team and radiant/havingfitz wolf team with realeo and dunn for town. I want to ISO BTD before I commit to anything though.

[RadiantCowbells]

Let me make this clear to whoever's town.
Before I replaced into this game, you lynched exactly 0 scum. Why is that?

Because scum wormed their way into the discussion and made it impossible to get lynches on scum through because no one was decisive enough to force something to happen.
I have yet to hear an argument predicated on Vedith town. I have heard people give cases for other people and I've heard people try to slow the game down.

Vote him. There's no reason to do anything else today.

[RadiantCowbells]

Oh and KMD if I was werewolf I would have shot Commknight last night every single time.

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm here. I read yesterday's stuff. A little lost in all the replacements to be honest, but I'd guess on a vedith/comm mafia team and radiant/havingfitz wolf team with realeo and dunn for town. I want to ISO BTD before I commit to anything though.

Actually I do have a question for you KMD.
If you think that the wolves are myself and Fitz, why were there two consecutive no kills with neither of us in the kill list?

[Kmd4390]

Actually...

Not fury was BTD first and she sheeped my trihexa (now vedith) case and it seemed like she honestly scumread trihexa. Trihexa was not fury's only vote and would have to be a hard bus if trihexa was a buddy. She also had the option to vote theta (town) and didn't do so. Maybe vedith isn't mafia.

BTD threw shade on realeo for his hurt plan. I don't think he'd do that to a widely town-read buddy.

He mentions flubber (comm) a couple of times without giving a read. Possible buddy.

His post about hellfire (radiant) being on the list reads as a possible buddy. He also says he reads hellfire as werewolf for NKA when the big NKA point was thathe was on the list twice as someone unlikely to be killed and that seems to suggest mafia. He may have been distancing while also trying to get hellfire out of the lynch pool. His hellfire vote also put him at L-4 so no real threat of a lynch. He also switched to hiraki pretty readily.

Preview edit: I thought it was pretty widely accepted that it didn't make sense for scum to kill last night...?

Also not sure that question is relevent anymore. I'm leaning mafia on you now.

Radiant might actually be mafia here. I wasn't leaning that way at all but after looking at BTD's ISO, it makes sense.

[Kmd4390]

Actually, I'm not sure why it would matter regarding your question.

[RadiantCowbells]

I am assuming that the only reason most people (read- not me) as scum would no kill in this setup is to obfuscate the alignments of people in the kill list.
Last night obviously werewolves would NK.
I'd argue that there WAS a reason to no kill the night before if you weren't confident in who the mafia was, because you'd get another shot at it: but I sincerely doubt that werewolves thought that through.

Do you think that Vedith has any real chance of being town here?

[RadiantCowbells]

I thought it was pretty widely accepted that it didn't make sense for scum to kill last night...?

Saving this.

Anyway, we're lynching Vedith.

[RadiantCowbells]

Actually no.

Why would it be 'pretty widely accepted' that it didn't make sense for scum to kill last night?

It was strongly discouraged because I threatened to gamethrow on behalf of mafia if they did so but that doesn't equate to it not making sense, that's actually super niche.
That feels like the kind of thing you would say if you hadn't read the thread whatsoever but your partner said 'no, we/the werewolves are probably not going to kill tonight.'

Like the only reason it would be discouraged is because we threatened to let the mafia claim and take the win. Otherwise giving themselves the win if mafia are lynched or the opportunity to not kill and not end the game yet if town get lynched is much, much better then facing two more chances at getting lynched today.

If you're town you really need to go through this reasoning because this made me basically write you off as potentially town.

[RadiantCowbells]

And bluntly you're bad but not this bad. CommKnight I could believe would be town and think that I was scum here. I don't hold a phenomenally high evaluation of your play but I've been obvtown since I replaced in.

[RadiantCowbells]

And bluntly you're bad but not this bad. CommKnight I could believe would be town and think that I was scum here. I don't hold a phenomenally high evaluation of your play but I've been obvtown since I replaced in.

And don't interpret me as saying that you're bad in a general sense unless you are actually town here. I'm not picking a fight. But this is nothing like the Aneninen game and I find it really, really weird that you would be misreading me unless you felt like it was necessary for your win condition to try to get me lynched. Especially when you called me both alignments.

[CommKnight]

*Facepalm* Reread OP (once again) and finally get it. Wolves can't just kill who they want because mafia can keep the kill outside of them with the list. The other set-up is the list of 3 on even days or whatever is the mandatory LYNCH of the day. Hence when I found out about the list, I assumed that.

Guess I should make sure I know how scum operate even when I'm town, because herp derp. That would've had me all fucked up.

Honestly, now that I know the lynch pool today isn't me/Realeo/kmd, I'm going to go ahead and VOTE: Vedith Because whatever faction Vedith is, it sure as hell isn't town. Also the stretching from kmd is noted and Dunn is tomorrow's lynch. He sure as hell isn't town either.

I hate to admit it, but RC might actually be our 3rd townie this game. (The other option being havingfitz, because any TL I had on kmd is dropping faster than a fly glued to an anvil).

[CommKnight]

Also... @RC, let me ask you. You knew this (and didn't seem to point it out clearly to me) and yet you leave Dunn on the same pile as myself? Like are you saying Dunn's idea of myself putting myself on a potential kill list in a scenario where YOU specifically would kill me is even remotely townie?

Sorry, but Dunn is 100% scum this game.

[CommKnight]

VOTE: Commknight

Comm slipped yesterday

I just confirmed that he was able to change the list as well and with ww nokilling him being on the list means nothing

Also this post. LOL, nice set-up question. Let me just quote a few things.

Hopefully WW's do the smart thing and off RC tonight

But wait... why do you think mafia will put rc in their list?

If radiantcowbells is on the list commknight is confirmed mafia.

game isn't over if btd6 flips some flavor of mafia/werewolf

My guess is it flips werewolf and a list comes out with radiant cowbells on it and commknight actually slipped

Trying to set me up since yesterday huh? You realize you confirmed yourself as mafia. Like you're not even WW or you would've shot me in the night when I made the list if you really thought that and had the ability to do so.

See that noose where we hung BTD in? You're in it tomorrow after Vedith.

[RadiantCowbells]

If I take a stance on who the remaining townie is before it's absolutely necessary it gives us extremely little.
I trust my reads more than Realeo but I also trust his reads enough to let him deal with the endgame if I end up dead.
Taking unnecessary stances before then will make scum much less likely to bus and potentially if I get everything right scum will just team up and screw town over.

You're in the same pool as Dunnstral, which used to contain kmd, but I have a definite pick as to which of you two is town.

As of tomorrow scum cannot try to screw over town without screwing themselves over too and I'll be a lot more helpful with regards to what my reads are.

[RadiantCowbells]

Also I'm un-writing off the possibility of kmd/dunnstral as of now.

[CommKnight]

Well if it helps matters. I actually don't know which of you/Fitz would be more likely town. Fitz hasn't tried to help town much, so not many points for him at the moment. Either way, Vedith should be 1-2 votes away from the noose today.

[Vedith]

We stick to the plan.
My plan gave us scum, and now we're getting the second scum.

RC only wants me lynched because tomorrow I work on lynching RC and kmd, both the WW team. And given that Comm and Real knows that RC is WW too, RC doesn't want 3 votes off the bat.

Comm not voting Dunn straight away confirms him as Mafia with Dunn.

VOTE: Dunn

Easy game, easy money.

[Realeo]

Please wait as I try to understand why Vedith turns from auto mafia to auto werewolf and suddenly he is the better lynch when Dunnstral is auto werewolf the entire game for RC.

[Realeo]

RC, what is exactly your priority here? Lynching werewolf or getting information? I agree Vedith is informative but I'm trying to figure out if town can take a non-werewolf lynch.

[Realeo]

Here's the thing. I'm totally convinced that neither Dunnstral or Vedith is mafia.

I pinned down Commknight as mafia (and so do you RC)

It's a little bit confusing how in D4, Commknight decided to vote Dunnstral over Vedith for no reason and now in D5 Commknight decided to vote Vedith over Dunnstral also with no heavy feeling.

So I felt that neither Dunnstral or Vedith is mafia with Commknight judged from voting pattern. There is also KMD's case about trihexa voting.

I agree that a werewolf lynch here is totally optimal play. I totally convinced that town is not Dunnstral/Vedith/Realeo so a minimum of 1 werewolf in Dunnstral/Vedith.

So it becomes to the question, "If I want a werewolf lynch, who should I lynch?" I obviously should vote the person I scumread the most.

I can't come to a conclusion where Vedith is scummier than Dunnstral. Coming to a conclusion where Vedith is werewolf, sure I can, but coming to a conclusion where Vedith is more werewolf than Dunnstral, just no.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Dunn

Obviously I'm open to persuasion and

I have outlined

above what is my concern and that concern if delivered can make me move my vote.

But we're lynching werewolf in a 2/3/2. Unlike D4 where I want to avoid confrontation at all cost, I can spend a dissenting voice. I can deadline lynch Vedith, but deadline is 13 days way.

For the time being, I'm rereading BTD's iso.