Newbie 1797: Space | Endgame

[Plotinus]

VC 3.05

Dark Nebula LDN 1622 and Barnard's Loop

Explanation: The silhouette of an intriguing dark nebula inhabits this cosmic scene. Lynds' Dark Nebula (LDN) 1622 appears below center against a faint background of glowing hydrogen gas only easily seen in long telescopic exposures of the region. LDN 1622 lies near the plane of our Milky Way Galaxy, close on the sky to Barnard's Loop - a large cloud surrounding the rich complex of emission nebulae found in the Belt and Sword of Orion. Arcs along a segment of Barnard's loop stretch across the top of the frame. But the obscuring dust of LDN 1622 is thought to be much closer than Orion's more famous nebulae, perhaps only 500 light-years away. At that distance, this 1 degree wide field of view would span less than 10 light-years.

Image and text credit

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BlackVoid

(1): Human Sequencer

NotTheRealPaul

(1): Dunkerdoodles

esires

(1): NotTheRealPaul

Not Voting

(3): esires, BlackVoid, skitter30

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

The day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2017-07-06 19:59:10)

Mod Notes

Hi, I'm the backup mod!

-ThinkBig, the moderator, is V/LA on weekends and on Jewish holidays. Plotinus, the backup moderator, will be modding during this time.
-skitter30 is V/LA on shabbat and Jewish holidays.

[NotTheRealPaul]

I get a lot more of a frantic last-ditch attempt feeling from BV's posts than I do from esires.

It's difficult for me to engage with this game because it feels won to me.

Somebody's probably gonna say something dumb like 'HS is scum coasting to victory after a hard bus' and I'm gonna lol.

Been thinking of this possibility a lot recently.

Start engaging, game is far from won.

I wontt be on much today due to ACT Prep *cries* And tommorrow I have shit going on too.

So I'll look at BV's read progressikn Thirsday hopefully and share thoughts on it. I didnt really notice anything off with it reading it real time tho

[NotTheRealPaul]

@HS where are u getting the frantic last ditch attempt vibe? The way I see it, BV cant be scum because he has stated he is townreading everyone but skitter (and not just leaning too) so it'll be way harder for him to push any lynch other than esires.

[NotTheRealPaul]

everyone but esires*

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, but now I'm getting paranoid of HS which means if I were scum I could push his lynch next...

Honestly, I don't think the number of suspects I have should be the reason I'm read as town. It doesn't always work out that I'll have just one suspect to focus on and I don't want to feel like I have to withhold my paranoia of other people in order to be read as town. I'd much rather just be completely transparent about how I'm feeling. It's more the depth of gamesolving that's different for me across alignments and I don't think I'd be able to do this much if I were scum.

[BlackVoid]

I like HS's early posting and the scumread on Paul in 126 was pretty well-thought out and I really liked the reaction to skitter's suspicion of him in 158. I liked the approach to Drixx in 192 as he's not trying to jump to a conclusion on Drixx's alignment but was more wondering why the weird play when Drixx was competent as scum. 214 and 217 looks like he was genuinely trying to figure out what was going on behind the scenes. I skimmed through HS's ISO in Large Normal 200 really quickly and he was bussing his partner (Wraith) there but the interactions have nowhere near the nuance and level of genuineness as his interactions with Drixx here.

I'm not sure what to make of his townread on Dunker in 274 where HS is pretty set on Dunker being town because Dunker sheeped HS and that apparently read to him as "underconfident town." I could just as easily see it being "scum sheeping a confident townie" so I don't get the logic there. If Dunker is a townread, why say "Feel free to lynch it anyway, but Picard is the better lynch here." That's really not how I'd expect someone to treat a townread. As for 302, if you are concerned about the inactivity from Picard and Drixx, why push only Picard or he majority of D1?

I found 433, 434 and 435 to be pretty strong towntells where he feels like he's actually re-assessing his read based on Picard's meta at a point where it hurts his ability to push the Picard mislynch and he doesn't really need to do that. I have a similar question to you here that I asked Skitter: Picard and Drixx were your scumread. You backed off of Picard, why not Drixx here as opposed to your townread Dunker? How much time was left at this point? Why is Drixx not on the table in 493?

Coming into D2 (576 and 577), there's a lot more focus on Drixx. My worry here is that if HS is scum, he'd have time during N1 to discuss strategy with Drixx and plan the mega-bus but many people had suspicions of Drixx D1 that they never really pushed on and that's throwing me off. Why are you townreading skitter in 598 for Picard flipping town? It's not implausible for a scum-skitter to defend a town-Picard and whiteknighting is fairly common so I don't see why that read vanished entirely and it strikes me as somewhat mechanical.

The actual push on Drixx starts in earnest in 678 and I found the reaction incredibly genuine. Since that point, pretty much everything Drixx was doing was pretty illogical and the way HS reacted to it was far more reasonable and there was a lot of sorting of Drixx going on. I was slightly paranoid that Drixx's rationale pushing HS was about his posting style which felt like BS theater but then again, if Drixx wanted to sell an argument with a partner, he'd use semi-convincing logic as opposed to something completely ridiculous. I like that the argument from HS's side was always logical. I just don't know what Drixx's endgame plan would be if esires is his partner because it was very unlikely HS, skitter, or Paul were going to get lynched after this showdown. I'll go with thinking Drixx just didn't have the time to play well.

So, overall I think HS is town but I'd feel a LOT better about this read if you interact with my points and not just call me scum and shut me out because I'm trying to work with you here.

[BlackVoid]

I was about to ISO esires but I blame skitter30's username for making me curious enough to google what the "worm" was and then getting hooked on reading the entire first chapter instead of continuing with his ISO. I have to leave for a few hours so I'll do it tonight.

[esires]

vote: BlackVoid

since it's no longer an L-1 vote.

@skitter - my thoughts on Paul are that he's become a stronger player as the game has gone on. Initially he seemed pretty lost and wasn't all the confident in his stances - he's definitely become more assertive and straightforward. IMO that's not a likely scum move - I would think scum would be more withdrawn after their partner were lynched. I feel pretty good about Paul, definitely leaning town.

I pretty much agree with HS's point about BV searching for the best mislynch opportunity. Maybe I'm being led astray and the reality is that HS is trying to keep the lynch on BV, but I still feel that BV's D3 game doesn't clear the slot.

Is Dunker still in this game?

[BlackVoid]

Everything I do can be interpreted as "searching for the best mislynch opportunity" as opposed to "trying to figure out the scum" if you want to twist it that way. There's no indication in your ISO that you are trying to parse the distinction between the two as opposed to just going with the first interpretation.

[NotTheRealPaul]

Everything I do can be interpreted as "searching for the best mislynch opportunity" as opposed to "trying to figure out the scum" if you want to twist it that way. There's no indication in your ISO that you are trying to parse the distinction between the two as opposed to just going with the first interpretation.

this^

I feel ya about number of suspects. Im not gonna suddenly scumread you for it because im hella paranoid of everyone rn and that could be misinterpreted as me tryna push mislynches.

My point simply was that the way u were giving out reads, u wer painting urself into almost a corner.

Anyway, Im tryna fogure out why Drixx pushed HS so hard for such obviously bullshit reasons. Considering how experienced he is, I feel like that case coulda been a whole lot better, and im tryna find reasons why Drixx pushes that hard. In addition, he painted it as a very TvS situation and even offered to send himself to the gallows to prove he was town and set us up to lynch HS.

Like surely he knew that HS would be near conftown after making a push like he did and then us finding him out to be scum. He knew he was setting up a TvS situation and even if he got an HS mislynch, he would be lynched next if HS flipped town.

HS could u just obvtown it up and engage us lol? My mind is tearing itself apart tryna figure out if im overthinking this.

[Dunkerdoodles]

hi i'm here
not much to comment on but im reading the thread dw. ill chime in when i need to.
yall made me paranoid about HS but i still think he's town.
i dont want to feel persuaded by a obviously experienced BV, but i feel he's town.
paul still top scum read, but it looks like no one else is scumreading him so.
i'll ISO BV, esires and paul later.

[BlackVoid]

@Dunker, can you explain your read on Paul a bit more?

[BlackVoid]

@esires, I'm curious, coming into D3, what would you have considered a townie reaction from me?

[skitter30]

I wontt be on much today due to ACT Prep *cries*

Good luck!

I was about to ISO esires but I blame skitter30's username for making me curious enough to google what the "worm" was and then getting hooked on reading the entire first chapter instead of continuing with his ISO. I have to leave for a few hours so I'll do it tonight.

<3

Continue reading, it only gets better! (Warning, it's super long. But super worth it!)

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OK, onto actual game stuff.

I've started skimming esires' ISO, but haven't finished yet; I'm going to try to do that after this post.

But just some quick thoughts on recent posts:

@HS:

I get a lot more of a frantic last-ditch attempt feeling from BV's posts than I do from esires.

It's difficult for me to engage with this game because it feels won to me.

Somebody's probably gonna say something dumb like 'HS is scum coasting to victory after a hard bus' and I'm gonna lol.

This post is making me want to say something dumb like 'HS is scum coasting to victory after a hard bus'.

I feel like BV's scumhunting attempts have been transparent and thorough. I'm seeing him actively try to sort all of us, and I mostly understand why his reads are changing as he went through his catchup.

@esires: Why didn't you want to put BV at L-1? You seem pretty convinced he's scum, so why not put him one vote closer to a lynch? Also,you don't seem very concerned that your townread is voting you right now? I'm kinda concerned that you aren't reevaluating your read from end-of-day 2, since BV has provided a lot of content since then. I don't really see you making an effort to engage him.

[skitter30]

Anyway, Im tryna fogure out why Drixx pushed HS so hard for such obviously bullshit reasons. Considering how experienced he is, I feel like that case coulda been a whole lot better, and im tryna find reasons why Drixx pushes that hard. In addition, he painted it as a very TvS situation and even offered to send himself to the gallows to prove he was town and set us up to lynch HS.

Like surely he knew that HS would be near conftown after making a push like he did and then us finding him out to be scum. He knew he was setting up a TvS situation and even if he got an HS mislynch, he would be lynched next if HS flipped town.

Honestly, I think he was hopped up on pain meds for a lot of day2, so he might not have been playing optimally.

[skitter30]

Yeah, but now I'm getting paranoid of HS which means if I were scum I could push his lynch next...

Honestly, I don't think the number of suspects I have should be the reason I'm read as town. It doesn't always work out that I'll have just one suspect to focus on and I don't want to feel like I have to withhold my paranoia of other people in order to be read as town. I'd much rather just be completely transparent about how I'm feeling. It's more the depth of gamesolving that's different for me across alignments and I don't think I'd be able to do this much if I were scum.

So this is what I'm pretty much feeling about you. You've been completely transparent, and I understand your reads, and their evolution seems natural as you got more information as you progressed through your catchup.

The reason why I asked you about Paul is because I wanted to see if you would be waffly on him - I think he's your next obvious mislynch attempt if you're scum, so I wanted to see if you would imply that you would be open to lynching him.

But you responded pretty fast with a well-thought-out townread, which would be kinda hard to talk yourself out of tomorrow, imo. Like, there was no hesitancy there; I didn't get the sense that you were hedging on him in order to leave him open as a mislynch option. That post basically made me want to switch from you to esires.

[Dunkerdoodles]

@Dunker, can you explain your read on Paul a bit more?

mainly his position on the drixx wagon, i feel like he bussed drixx.
drixx was one of the main scumreads d1, and i feel that overnight drixx may have told paul to bus him and he was already being scumread.
paul really defended his place on the wagon.
paul also "warmed up" to the idea of TvT, after i believe drixx said it might be TvT. paul might have wanted to go along with his partner drixx and maybe try and convince town it was TvT and that they should lynch someone else, but when no one really thought it was TvT (i was insisting the whole day it was TvS, which is probably why i don't like paul rn.) he went back to bussing. now i'm pretty sure i posted about this D2, and paul response was something like "i was only "warming up" to the idea of TvT, i still think it was TvS." now if town did indeed get persuaded and think HS vs Drixx was TvT, then paul could've said he was the one of the first people to come uo with the idea with his "warming up" post.

tl:dr I think paul bussed drixx D2

[NotTheRealPaul]

@Dunker, can you explain your read on Paul a bit more?

mainly his position on the drixx wagon, i feel like he bussed drixx.
drixx was one of the main scumreads d1, and i feel that overnight drixx may have told paul to bus him and he was already being scumread.
paul really defended his place on the wagon.
paul also "warmed up" to the idea of TvT, after i believe drixx said it might be TvT. paul might have wanted to go along with his partner drixx and maybe try and convince town it was TvT and that they should lynch someone else, but when no one really thought it was TvT (i was insisting the whole day it was TvS, which is probably why i don't like paul rn.) he went back to bussing. now i'm pretty sure i posted about this D2, and paul response was something like "i was only "warming up" to the idea of TvT, i still think it was TvS." now if town did indeed get persuaded and think HS vs Drixx was TvT, then paul could've said he was the one of the first people to come uo with the idea with his "warming up" post.

tl:dr I think paul bussed drixx D2

Mehh I was defending myself with the warming up stuff but take it as u will.

drixd qlso wasnt a main sr d1, u were. Second was picard. Drixx was like null very slight leanscum mostly bcuz he hadnt done shit. atleast thats how I viewed it.

Plus if we planned the bus, I woulda pushed a lot harder.

Im tryna figure out why the two conftown have wasted their votes on me for multiple days. Like dafuq why when there have been/are better candidates.

[skitter30]

I was working on a BV style analysis of esires, but I'm coming down with the flu and my head's a little bit fuzzy right now. Imma continue this tomorrow I think.

[NotTheRealPaul]

I was working on a BV style analysis of esires, but I'm coming down with the flu and my head's a little bit fuzzy right now. Imma continue this tomorrow I think.

Get better soon. We have a week till deadline so not really a rush.

I'll try to look at his reads tomorrow or Thursday. Im dreading going through all those post numbers lol.

@BV do u still need more detailed reads on u, skitters, and esires?

[BlackVoid]

I was working on a BV style analysis of esires, but I'm coming down with the flu and my head's a little bit fuzzy right now. Imma continue this tomorrow I think.

I'm also doing this. If you don't mind, I'd like us to both post our analyses at the same time. I want to read your thoughts without you being influenced by anything I wrote so I can firm up my read on you. And vice-versa. When you are online and ready tomorrow, let me know and we'll post them together. I'm leaving for work at around 3:30 PST so it needs to be before that unless you are a night owl, then we can do it past midnight.

[BlackVoid]

@Dunker, I'm going to go look at the Drixx wagon again after I finish going through esires' ISO and I'll respond then.

@Paul, if you want to post more detailed reads, go for it. More information and content to analyze is always better than less.

[skitter30]

@Paul: Thanks!

@BV: I'm also in PDT and I'm a nightowl lol; definitely won't be able to do it before 3:30 cuz that's right around when I get home from work. If I'm feeling better, I'll go through it tomorrow afternoon so I can post it tomorrow night.

[esires]

@BV - my read on your slot is based on D1 and D2, so I'm not sure it's relevant what you do on D3.

@skitter - Didn't want to put someone at L-1 early in the day.

[BlackVoid]

And if you are wrong, you're happy to lose the game over it? Because assuming you are town, even if you succeed in lynching me AND correctly figure who the scum is in lylo, you're going to have a hell of a job trying to convince the other townie not to vote you.