Newbie 1797: Space | Endgame

[esires]

I'll have an uphill battle if I'm wrong but I don't think I am.

[BlackVoid]

What's throwing me off is why you wouldn't actually try and figure out if you are wrong today. The fact that

I'll

have an uphill battle if I'm wrong is exactly why I've been spending so much time trying to verify if that could be the case to make sure we don't lose. But you don't seem the least bit bothered and are entirely comfortable basically saying nothing I did this DP has any relevance and that my slot is scum because of D2.

[ThinkBig]

VC 3.06

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BlackVoid

(1): Human Sequencer

NotTheRealPaul

(1): Dunkerdoodles

esires

(1): NotTheRealPaul

Not Voting

(3): esires, BlackVoid, skitter30

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

The day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2017-07-06 19:59:10)

Thanks Plotinus for being an awesome backup mod!

[esires]

Basically, I'm willing to take it day by day, and since I think we will win if we lynch you, I'm not overly worried about tomorrow, today.

Psst @ TB: I am voting BlackVoid

[BlackVoid]

Question for you: why do you pretend you don't know that scum have a roleblocker in your opening post of D2 (617)?

[BlackVoid]

Another question: can you explain what you think is the scum motivation behind HS "vote-hopping" by switching from Cpt, calling him town and voting Dunker and then moving back to Cpt instead of staying on Cpt throughout? Since they are both town, wouldn't it attract less attention to stick to one target because it wouldn't really matter to him which of them got lynched? This is in reference to your 627.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, wrote up my

thesis paper

ISO analysis of esires. Ready to post when I come back from work around midnight tonight.

[skitter30]

Sounds good. I like just got home, so I'm going to spend a bit on it, and we'll compare tonight!

[NotTheRealPaul]

lol thesis paper

did everyone unvote and me not notice? i swear esires was l-1 and bv l-2

[BlackVoid]

I'm back and ready to post whenever you are.

[skitter30]

Give me like five-ten min.

[skitter30]

K, I'm here and ready

[BlackVoid]

Alright, posting in 30 seconds.

[skitter30]

Doing a BV style post-by-post thing:

Spoiler: Day 1

77 (from esires) and post 78 (from Dunker) - I know I'm doing an ISO of esires, but I want to talk about 77 in relation to 78. As these two posts happened, I was also getting suspicious of Drixx, as evidenced by my 79. But these two votes kinda weirded me out and really pinged me, and at the time made me worried about how quickly Drixx was being wagoned. I started worrying that scum were seeing an opportunity to bandwagon on a townie, and so that's when I started getting suspicious of Dunker; his vote looked more oppurtunistic. Now, knowing the alignment of both Drixx and Dunker, 77 is still pinging me a lot, but I can't really articulate why. I'm worried this might be an early distancing vote, and his reasoning basically repeated what I said in 76.

90 - Continues pushing Drixx. Partner!esires seems kinda unconcerned that Drixx is at L-2 with me threatening to put him at L-1; this post doesn't seem like something a partner would say.

//note to self for NC/BV ISO - look at NC 95

117 - I'm not really sure why you suddenly reversed away from Drixx here? Like, you go on for a bit about why you thought Dunker is suspicious, but instead of voting him, you vote HS? And you don't really explain why you're backing away from Drixx.

152 and 155 - Seems concerned about Paul's Drixx vote in 152, but it was apparently a lead-up to asking Paul who he thought was scum besides Drixx. Maybe directing Paul away from Drixx? But in context, could just be esires probing a potential scumread, since esires lists Paul as sketchy in 152.

197 - Again pushes Drixx. I don't think this is a question I would ever ask, but it does sound to me like he's using it to try to understand Drixx's day1 play. Similarly, 224, he's pushing Drixx again.

308 - I like this push on Dunker. He explains his problems with Dunker's play, and seems to be trying to figure out his motivation.

331 - Asks Drixx for content, seems to be worried that he may die overnight. This makes sense, since Drixx hadn't really been providing much content at this point. Except I don't really think Drixx was a night-kill candidate at that point? Like, I think at that point, I would have expected scum to hit Tess. Obviously, Drixx was scum, but from his play Day1, I don't think town!Drixx was getting killed that night either. So, I don't know why esires was worried about this? But I also don't know why partner!esires is saying this to Drixx now.

401, 448 - I kinda think Picard was an easy, safe push at that point, especially since the wagon was already established; it was almost a call to policy-lynching, and it kinda enabled scum!esires to avoid having to sort anyone else.

Spoiler: Day 2

617 - Why does scum!esires ask about whether Tess got informed if he was shot? Like, doesn't scum!esires know already that they hit Tess? scum!esires would have to basically be asking for WIFOM reasons, but it's hard for me to see scum coming up with this question in particular in order to make it seem like they didn't understand how the kill worked. I dislike his comment on me, that I was supporting Tess's push on HS for his hammer, since I clearly disagreed with Tess. I also dislike the NC read - it feels like a shallow reason for scumreading her; while I dislike active lurking, flaking and replacing out and disengagement is kinda NAI IMO. I also dislike the total lack of townreads, that he lists a bunch of reasons for why we all might be scum - it kinda reads like he's keeping his options open. And he just doesn't react to the fact that Drixx is scumreading him apparently?

627 - It's strange that esires explains his scumread on Drixx/HS/NC independently, but then decides that HS/NC are a possible scumteam, without really considering how Drixx fit into the equation, especially since Drixx had been a scumread of esires for a while. This post I can see coming from a partner.

657 - talks about Drixx's weird play again - I'm kinda wondering why he wasn't voting him at this point?

708 - I think I said this then, but I don't get this vote on Drixx. Why are you 'compelled'? What would you have done if Drixx had said he thought it was a deliberate attempt at obfuscation? What would you have done the other way? It's just a

really

weird way of voting him. Could be you decided to distance?

858 - I'm not sure why you're 'on the fence' - you very clearly joined the HS side by voting Drixx. It's kinda weird that you're voting with a scumread? You also basically say that lynching one and finding them to be scum wouldn't clear the other - knowing Drixx's alignment, it kinda reads like you're preparing for the fact that Drixx will flip scum and you're trying to keep HS open as a mislynch option.

919- I can't really disagree with his read of the gamestate; I was suspicious of BV for the same reason. But here and in 965 he kinda drops his suspicion of HS for BV, who by town consensus was scummier. And you didn't really mention the possibility of Drixx/NC in 627.

1001 - I also kinda agreed with this, but I'm finding it weird that Drixx decided to self-hammer literally minutes after this. Was he trying to frame BV by hammering here? Or was he trying to prevent further inquiry into BV? I can't tell.

Esires: Please address my questions on the last two points

Spoiler: Day 3

1050 - I'm still not getting your read on Paul/HS here? I don't get why you aren't really considering the possibility of HS and Paul both being town; you aren't looking at Paul because you think scum!HS is trying to buddy him? I don't get it.

1132 - You seem unconcerned about the fact that a townread is voting you. I don't understand your reluctance to put BV at L-1 if you think he's scum - who's going to quickhammer him already? You've been scumreading HS for most of the game but now you're sheeping him? You don't think BV's content is worth considering? This post is so, so, so sketchy.

1148 - didn't answer my question about a townread voting you? I don't get the reluctance to quickhammer? I dislike the fact that you aren't really trying to evaluate BV? Since when are you sheeping HS?

tl;dr: I don't really see that much scummy stuff from day1, and I don't see that many associative tells day 1 either. But his vote on Drixx day2 was bizarre, and his posts kinda seem lackluster and are pushing whatever is convenient. His posts from today and yesterday are pinging me a lot, and are almost worth a vote on their own.

Basically, I can see scum!esires, but I'm not

completely

sold on esires + Drixx together. esires' vote on Drixx was weird, and he was oddly fixated on him early on. I still want to re-read NC/BV, but I think I'm willing to vote esires today.

And esires' recent play doesn't really seem to be matching his reads? He's voting BV with HS, who he's scumreading, and he's OK with his townread voting him, and he just doesn't react to Drixx scumreading him? Tis weird.

[BlackVoid]

The biggest thing that worries me about esires' ISO is that there's extremely little original thought there. The first vote on Drixx coming out of RVS in 77 and comes after several people voiced concerns about Drixx and his 90 where he attacks Drixx is him continuing to blend into the crowd.

His next attack is on Dunker in 111 which basically mirrors the end of skitter's 94: that Dunker accused Drixx of doing something Drixx didn't do and opportunistically bandwagoned Drixx. After Dunker makes 113 and NC backs off of Dunker a bit in 114 and HS declares Dunker to be town in 115, esires then becomes "torn" on Dunker and WIFOMs himself a bit and ends with "dang, this is confusing." I sort of explain this in 902 and I still feel like he's trying to feign confusion than being confused. I also disliked his vote on HS but it is at least original content. Then Dunker makes 190 which is a post that caused a lot of discussion. HS starts it off in 191 saying that Dunker's earlier posts could be an act or he's an "exceptionally fast learner." esires paraphrases pretty much the same logic saying that there's a big difference between his earlier posts and recent posts in 197 and ends by calling out Cpt for lurking which Dunker already did in his 174.

The unvote on HS in 224 because he's participating is fine but the phrasing "at this stage, I don't think a vote on HS is justified" feels more like he can't plausibly push HS anymore and resigned himself to finding better targets as opposed to having a revelation that HS was town. Part of his reasoning was that HS isn't wagon-hopping anymore like he was initially? I don't even get why "wagon-hopping" is scummy or why you'd unvote someone who did something that's scummy in your mind just because they stopped doing it. Him accusing Drixx for having "reactive" posts is really weird as well since he said later that he himself is a reactive player. Why not switch your vote to Drixx at that point. It seemed like your best lead at that point after you unvoted HS. Instead in your next post (268), you vote Dunker while still accusing Drixx of "theory-crafting posts" which reads like you were distancing from him but never really backing it up with a vote beyond that initial RVS vote all the way until the Drixx-HS showdown the following DP.

In 268, you put your vote back on Dunker. Two posts earlier in 266, skitter voted him saying about his Picard scumread "Just, why? Why is he your biggest scumread? This vote seemed incredibly bandwagony and oppurtunistic to me, and I don't like it." And your reasoning two posts later was "wagon hopping and lack of much of an explanation for why Capt is a scumread." I know that townies tend to bounce ideas off of each other, agree, and get into sort of a hive-mind, but it feels more like your entire ISO is about paraphrasing other people's posts. There's no real investment in your reads and I read your posts about how this is a "warm-up" game for you. I don't get it. Why wouldn't you actually play the game and try to scumhunt on your own just because you haven't played for a very long time? What benefit would there be in "warming up" by playing a town role as if you were coasting scum? The follow-up in 269 and 270 doesn't seem to have changed your reads on Dunker/Paul at all despite you thinking that what Paul did was scummy. That feels more like you are trying to push a narrative on Dunker than look objectively at everyone who does anything you think is scummy.

Justifying his push on Dunker in 276 as Dunker sheeping HS is a bit hypocritical considering the "reactive" game that you say you are playing going off of cases you agree as opposed to making your own. That and if you thought HS was baiting to see who would jump on the Picard wagon, it makes perfect sense for you as scum to not hop on and instead call out Dunker who hopped on hoping that HS would agree with you. Your comment in 308 on Dunker is again something that TesXX mentioned in 292 about "who do you think my scumpartner is?" The rest of the Dunker case is really weak but I'll give points for it not being copy-paste/paraphrase. Were things like "easily hopping onto wagons" scumtells a decade ago?

The paragraph to Drixx in 331 was actually pretty good in that it could have betrayed that he doesn't know Drixx's alignment. Telling a partner "post your reads before you get nk'd" is not something I'd expect scum to say intuitively. But then esires was mostly scumreading Drixx so I feel something like "post your reads so I can read you properly" seems natural to say. What he said about Drixx getting nk'd makes sense if he's talking to a townread but as far as I can see, esires never townread Drixx. Saying Dunker and HS aren't a team is just copy-pasta of HS arguing that point.

In 393, you say you want to draw the line with lurking and that it's better to lynch a lurker than an active contributer. But then your biggest reason for pushing Dunker is his push on Cpt. Duinker where Dunker literally said "

Yeah, he is one of my scum reads, I think a wagon should pressure him to post a bit more. VOTE: cptpicard

" So, what Dunker is doing - pressuring the lurkers to post more is really awesome from your standpoint. How could you possibly read that as suspect? I hate the "HS's abrupt reversal is noted" in 448. You are pushing against him for what's actually a towntell - him reading through Cpt's past games and deciding that he may be wrong. Instead of trying to understand his viewpoint, you... ding him for changing his opinion? So, that's it for D1.

Moving onto D2, I already posted about his Drixx vote so this will be a bit brief. His setup spec seems like a towntell since it's rather obvious that scum have a roleblocker and they would have roleblocked Dunker and shot TesXX. But 32 shows that he understood the setup. 622 was a question I think he could have asked N1 in the scum thread. I don't know if he's the kind to fake a towntell though? I don't like the "Drixx finally delivers a meaty post" argument in 617 as it looks like he's trying to get Drixx off the hook.

The thing that makes this hard is that after the vote on Drixx, esires goes on V/LA and we don't really get a chance to see how he engages Drixx. When he comes back, he just ties HS and Drixx together as potential partners and is okay with either lynch. I like the characterization of HS and Drixx in 884 as them being unique players that are hard to get a handle on. You've said you've bounced back and forth on thinking HS and HS is "definitely town" but you never really put that in the thread. Thinking you are going to be nightkilled feels fake. You've played mafia before. You know that mafia pretty much are compelled to kill the PRs if they want to stand a chance of winning. Why would they kill a "reactive player" playing a "warmup game?" How do you actually believe that? Also, TesXX was throwing around the possibility of me being jailed so it's not like I was trying to sow "confusion" and pull the jailer on me at the last moment and what possible scum motivation could I have for that?

Moving to D3, I really don't like how in 1132, he basically said "Maybe I'm being led astray and the reality is that HS is trying to keep the lynch on BV, but I still feel that BV's D3 game doesn't clear the slot." If he's wondering about this, why not work with me and try to figure HS out? He throws in all these paranoid possibilities that someone else could be scum but doesn't actually do anything about it, investigate the matter, ask questions or try to solidify his reads. His reasons for suspecting me basically amount to "absence of a Drixx counterpush" and "vague suspicion of NC by Drixx." The first one is explained by bussing which I know happened and which should something he should be considering and the second is something you never talked about. The fact that he's so sure based on such weak reasoning where nothing I say D3 matters is weird.

As for towntells, I noticed a couple of weak ones here and there. Addressing Drixx like he's going to get nightkilled and he just didn't seem to realize there's a scum roleblocker as he accused me of trying to clear myself by no killing and he also theorizes at the beginning of D2 that scum no killed. I do want to read everyone else just to be doubly certain.

[skitter30]

Wow, ok, we have very similar thoughts lol; I said very similar things on a bunch of the posts that you commented on.

[BlackVoid]

@skitter, wanted to ask you a few questions about your D3 posting:

1. You asked both me and esires for our reads on Paul and I said he was town. Why did you immediately say you thought my response was townie instead of waiting for esires to respond as well and then explaining which one you found more town? By stating your opinion, you pretty much made it so that if esires was scum, he would also have to call Paul town or risk getting scumread whereas if you said nothing, you'd have the chance to catch him making an opportunistic read. If I'm town for townreading Paul, shouldn't esires also be town for the same reason?

2. Can you clarify the last part of 1115 for me? If esires is scum (like you were thinking at that point), then Drixx obviously wouldn't want to lynch him and if it becomes harder to lynch esires after HS's townflip, that's good for Drixx, isn't it? When you say "Drixx could still push esires," you seem to be implying that esires is town which wasn't what your read on him was at that point.

3. In 1105, why do you dislike my post cutting short the interaction with esires even when you agreed that he wasn't trying to figure out my alignment? Were you expecting me to interact with him for the benefit of everyone else? If that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to just talk to everyone else about esires rather than continue talking

at

him? I don't know if that makes sense but if I'm talking to someone directly, it means I'm leaving open room for them being town and taking in what they are saying, not just refuting their points for everyone else to see.

4. In 1085, you asked for links to my town and scum games. Did you get a chance to check them out?

5. I think esires didn't put me at L-1 because I specifically requested it. I didn't want anyone to lol-hammer and cut the day short. Why does that matter? Is there any scum motivation in not voting me until you took your vote off

[skitter30]

Sorry, I'm catching myself falling asleep now, but I'm definitely going to follow up on this tomorrow.

[BlackVoid]

I'm also curious why you decided to copy my "style?"

[BlackVoid]

I want to hear people's thoughts on the nightkills. Killing TesXX N1 over Dunker was always a risk because if the roleblocker is lynched the following day, the JK can start clearing people. Why would Drixx and his partner take that risk instead of taking out Dunker immediately? Dunker was also more confirmed town than TesXX since there's a possibility of a JK existing without a 1-shot BP. One way removing the BP would be beneficial for scum is that if the roleblocker isn't lynched D2, it gives them latitude to kill whichever conf-town they want. The second question is on N2, why would the scum roleblocker get rid of TesXX over Dunker? For one, I could see it being because TesXX is more active and aggressive while Dunker is keeping a low profile. Reads-wise, the conf-townies seem to be focused on Paul and HS the most and I don't really have suspicions of either of them so I don't know what to make of it.

[esires]

Tbh having two people coordinate and gang up like this with walls of text just feels kinda shitty and not fun, so I'm sorta over it guys.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: esires

[esires]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: BlackVoid

I'm sorry, that was an overly emotional response right after I woke up. I just have a hard time keeping up with the game as it is, so to have two people coordinate big posts against me like that with each other in a targeted way felt crappy. But I realize that's how the game works, and will work to respond later today.

[skitter30]

@esires: I'm sorry you feel that way I wasn't like trying to make you feel attacked or anything . I wanted to ISO you, and then BV said he wanted to as well - we decided to post at around the same time so that we wouldn't be influencing each other, and well, ISOs are kinda long, so I ended up with a wall.

I wasn't trying to like coordinate an attack on you, but rather trying to share thoughts around the same time so that we wouldn't be influencing each other, and I apologize if I made you feel like we planned a coordinated attack

[Human Sequencer]

I mean if I'm being brutally honest I agree with esires at this point, and I'm not even the one under fire.

[Human Sequencer]

That said, 1170 kinda feels more like scum giving up the game than town giving up the lynch.

Paul is town, dunker is town and skitter is town. We have two lynches. I don't really see the point fretting over the finer details at this point, it just lets whoever scum is worm out easier. Either BV is doing it now, or esires can potentially do it now/tomorrow.