Mini Normal 1917: :X Mafia (Game over!)

[Vedith]

Yeah but I'm right.

[CCC]

Vote Count 1.12

Not_Mafia (6): Not_Mafia, Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (2): CCC, MuttonChopMagic
Backhand (1): Grendel
CCC (1): Hiraki
Cheetory6 (1): SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald, Nero Cain


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

Not_Mafia has been prodded.

Vote Count 1.13

Not_Mafia (5): Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower
Gamma Emerald (4): CCC, MuttonChopMagic, SlingshotWaffles,

Nero Cain

Cheetory6 (1): Not_Mafia
CCC (1): Hiraki
PenguinPower (1): Grendel

Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

This is still the key moment of the game--when Not_Mafia was under real heat, Nero jumped on a bad counterwagon. That is exactly the kind of play you would expect from a buddy trying to save a buddy. That's why I linked nm/vedith and nero to begin with, I'm sticking with it.

VOTE: Vedith

It's only one point - but unlike Vedith's case, I can't find a way to say the same about anyone else.

[CCC]

Because either one of the two people he's voting for is scum that he's willing to bus, or neither of them are

CCC, you're a genius!
I'm sure this never occurred to anyone before you said. If I'm Scum, either There's Scum in Hiraki/Backhand or There's not!
It's so simple, yet poetic.

Did you miss the point where I told you how to differentiate between the two cases?

(For what it's worth, I do think that if you're scum, your most likely partner is Grendel).

[CCC]

Yeah but I'm right.

For what it's worth, you've got me pretty much convinced that one of you or Backhand is scum. So, my plan is to vote for you today and wait for the flip - if you're sum, then my next target is Grendel, while if you're Town, then my next target is Backhand.

Unless new information comes in or someone presents a particularly persuasive case, that is.

[Vedith]

I'm happy with that.

[Grendel]

your analysis wasn't wrong that i don't have a strong read either way toward him but by there's a shorter list of people who can actually be scum so he's maybe on it. I don't think /we/ dictate things anymore either - not really ever in this game tbh. i also think grendel's psuedo push on giga right now is 10 times worse than what you're saying though

Okay, so you are in a position where you think a player could be scum but not strongly so. You yourself are a tertiary sr for everybody and their mother. You therefore know that if they are in fact scum that you won't live long enough to catch them, and you don't count on said player to get called out later on b/c roster says they are OB!town.

What would you do in that situation

?

[Grendel]

I think the worst thing I saw in regards to Vediths slot was that point where Nero unvoted Not mafia D1 when NM started gaining steam.

but that's it?... everything else is null

I haven't read that wall Vedith posted yet ethier. All them post links inviting cross examination are intimidating.

[Grendel]

Yeah but I'm right.

For what it's worth, you've got me pretty much convinced that one of you or Backhand is scum. So, my plan is to vote for you today and wait for the flip - if you're sum, then my next target is Grendel, while if you're Town, then my next target is Backhand.

Unless new information comes in or someone presents a particularly persuasive case, that is.

If Vedith is scum I'm okay with getting lynched tomorrow b/c I think town still has a good shot to win by lynching Backhand afterwards.

I don't think Giga/Hiraki would be with Vedith!Scum.

[Grendel]

if you think that i am that poor of a player vedith, then i've learned how much you think of me - i'm not going through all of this but 575 is absolutely not fake, I can link at least 5 games where I do the same exact thing

vedith's reads assume that everyone who defended nero must be scum and that's the end all, that's a very naive way of thinking about the game

ok but how much do you apologize to me in the post-game for being wrong?

I don't see Hiraki using emotional manipulation on a buddy here.

[Grendel]

I do think that its weird that Hiraki as scum would hard defend Nero into infinity. But I don't think its enough to dissuade me from wanting to flip Hiraki. At a certain point experienced scum realize that it still looks better to be wrong, but have conviction with their original stance then to try and back pedal into a bus.

Cuase I don't think being on Nero yesterday would have done anything for Hiraki's town cred. Why not dig in his heels at that point?

[Backhand]

I think the worst thing I saw in regards to Vediths slot was that point where Nero unvoted Not mafia D1 when NM started gaining steam.

but that's it?... everything else is null

I haven't read that wall Vedith posted yet ethier. All them post links inviting cross examination are intimidating.

That's a huge thing though! CCC's analysis of vedith's analysis is exactly right--you could use that kind of logic to indict almost any two players in the game, if you're willing to say "look, here's where they were bussing and here's where they weren't." There's no underlying predictive value there.

There's nothing wrong with a gutread, but at least admit that that's what you're doing instead of "I already decided they were scum look here's what they were doing because they were scum"

[Backhand]

I do think that its weird that Hiraki as scum would hard defend Nero into infinity. But I don't think its enough to dissuade me from wanting to flip Hiraki. At a certain point experienced scum realize that it still looks better to be wrong, but have conviction with their original stance then to try and back pedal into a bus.

Cuase I don't think being on Nero yesterday would have done anything for Hiraki's town cred. Why not dig in his heels at that point?

I don't think hiraki should be cleared by any means--its light evidence that I don't think a buddy would go so far to defend him in the first place. But its definitely not impossible.

Also, I'm definitely letting vedith's garbage case get to me and it makes me just want to string him up--but what should actually happen is letting our three confirmed townies tell us what to do.

So hurry up and tell us to lynch vedith, kraska/cheet

[Grendel]

i think to win the game, the best route is

Grendel -> CCC (only here because I realize that I need to start compromising) -> Backhand -> Cheetory (unless he's a neighbor now?)

So I'm your only legit scum read?

[Cheetory6]

Alright everyone, by order of the Confirmed Town please take your vote and place it on yourself.

[Grendel]

I think the worst thing I saw in regards to Vediths slot was that point where Nero unvoted Not mafia D1 when NM started gaining steam.

but that's it?... everything else is null

I haven't read that wall Vedith posted yet ethier. All them post links inviting cross examination are intimidating.

That's a huge thing though! CCC's analysis of vedith's analysis is exactly right--you could use that kind of logic to indict almost any two players in the game, if you're willing to say "look, here's where they were bussing and here's where they weren't." There's no underlying predictive value there.

There's nothing wrong with a gutread, but at least admit that that's what you're doing instead of "I already decided they were scum look here's what they were doing because they were scum"

That second point is just Vedith being himself.

I'm not going to fight Vediths lynch, but I'm not super inclined to join either lol.

I do think that its weird that Hiraki as scum would hard defend Nero into infinity. But I don't think its enough to dissuade me from wanting to flip Hiraki. At a certain point experienced scum realize that it still looks better to be wrong, but have conviction with their original stance then to try and back pedal into a bus.

Cuase I don't think being on Nero yesterday would have done anything for Hiraki's town cred. Why not dig in his heels at that point?

I don't think hiraki should be cleared by any means--its light evidence that I don't think a buddy would go so far to defend him in the first place. But its definitely not impossible.

Also, I'm definitely letting vedith's garbage case get to me and it makes me just want to string him up--but what should actually happen is letting our three confirmed townies tell us what to do.

So hurry up and tell us to lynch vedith, kraska/cheet

It was a weird thought where I originally got the quote to say that I thought the Hiraki probably wasn't scum with Nero. Then I was typing I realized he could still be. I guess it was a pointless post.

Anyways, Why are you in such a rush?

[Grendel]

@Cheeetory

triple C, as annoyingly bad as N_M is we aren't lynching a claimed PR.

Oh.

P-Edit: I was feeling Hiraki/Vedith as partners yesterday pretty hard, but Nero being scum makes me feel less sure about Hiraki being scum?

I'll look into their interactions later, but what were your reasons NeroxHiraki don't work?

Cheetory you said you'd talk to me more today!

[Vedith]

Alright everyone, by order of the Confirmed Town please take your vote and place it on yourself.

VOTE: Vedith

Aye aye!

[Cheetory6]

Missed that post sorry! (You have a lot of them and I'm frankly finding it difficult not to skim them when there's so many dense ones in a row yo.)
I just didn't really feel like scumHiraki relentlessly defends Nero on the bare premise of "I don't see any case on him".
I do honestly feel like my reads are objectively kind of terrible right now though so, take how I'm feeling with a grain of salt.

[Grendel]

Missed that post sorry! (You have a lot of them and I'm frankly finding it difficult not to skim them when there's so many dense ones in a row yo.)
I just didn't really feel like scumHiraki relentlessly defends Nero on the bare premise of "I don't see any case on him".
I do honestly feel like my reads are objectively kind of terrible right now though so, take how I'm feeling with a grain of salt.

I would have tried to space my posts out better if could. Its just, I only of certin points of time I can come into play this game. So when I get an extended window of time I gotta jump on it.

That was my initial impression Regarding Hiraki's play yesterday. But I'm not so sure now. Was hoping you had something beyond that tbh

You said Back hand is town right? Why is that?

[kraska77]

Ok I'm done reading both accpuntant and nero's iso's
Accountant waltzed into the game saying it's full of VIs, and spent a good portion of day 1 piling on notsure, gamma and waffles. Accountant iso emanates lots of confidence in surviving till endgame, we already know that 3/4 people they pushed either flipped green or are confirmed town at this point. With the exceptions of backhand. Halfway through day one accountant switched gears and campained strongly for a backhand wagon...., dpesnt make much sense for a widely townread accountant who is strongly manipulating the flow of the game, to get off the lynchbaits that everyone wanted lynched and bus backhand instead

[kraska77]

More later sorry

[MuttonChopMagic]

vedith can die but hiraki do3snt get a bye

[MuttonChopMagic]

Yeah but I'm right.

For what it's worth, you've got me pretty much convinced that one of you or Backhand is scum. So, my plan is to vote for you today and wait for the flip - if you're sum, then my next target is Grendel, while if you're Town, then my next target is Backhand.

Unless new information comes in or someone presents a particularly persuasive case, that is.

if vedith flips green I want hiraki before backhand I think
backhand is pretty townie... hiraki... is pink

[gigabyteTroubadour]

ok i keep getting sidetracked to hell and back but i'm getting to this at some point. preliminary thoughts so i'm not just prodging:

grendel's push on me isnt scum motivated necessarily, it is something he will eventually have to do as scum but it's a legitimate thought he would have as town. i think nero's responses to me (and his selfhammer) though should be telling enough that he's wrong. i have yet to look at how he's reevaluated if at all

i think vedith's bullheadedness is scummy here and i would expect him to maybe be more suspicious of me as town but his case might be town (has vedith put in that much effort into a game as scum?). will have to comb through it closely

hiraki...... i will feel horrible about if he's town (same with grendel but i'm more confident he's town here) but poe is making me like him less

i really don't see ccc's play as scum motivated, just bad and irrationally rational if that makes sense. he only deserves a second look if hiraki is town, i think kraska's point with Accountant complaining about VI's is salient here and makes them unlikely partners

backhand fits the bill of someone distancing from nero but that also means he's likely to be town too - i also dont think i've read any of his posts until i joined the game so??

this is a fuckton of waffling but this is specifically how i'm waffling atm. will see if new posts affect any of these thoughts.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Apologies for not addressing you directly in these Giga, I was typing it up while you weren't around.

oh look, I'm everyone's top scumread now, besides maybe Hiraki and Cheet. Like that should be a huge neon sign that I'm a mislynch.

i dont think a scumteam with you tries to save you ever lmfao

anyway cheetory and hiraki are next, wanted to address my scumread first

still townreading the wagon comp here

that kill and nero's self hammer strongly implies that the wagon was all town sans nero imo

unless that was a vig kill lol

the first thing i want to look at today is the day 1 wagons now that we have a scumflip

Saying things like, “Scum team is never saving you”, while coming into today with the thought that Nero’s wagon had no scum on it does not add up. The first thought is a clear implication that scum _would_ in fact bus Nero, yet Giga keeps finding reasons that Nero wouldn't be bussed in this game. It registers as an excuse to lynch people off the wagon.

Which, is classic trade mark of bussing scum maximizing on newly nested opportunities. In a SWOT analisis, scum are always classify post filp associative as prime pickings. That is also where their reads begin, premature to a flip, tying their buddy to town long before a flip happens.

grendel can you tell me why you're not voting nero

Example A would be me.

Also I think the rhetoric around the all clean wagon on Nero could be easily changed depending whether or not I/Hiraki/Back/Vedith were on it. Overall looking planned vs developed when town usually doesn't play that strategically. Planned being a strategic mindset, while development falls between tactics and strategy.

this point i think would be more salient if i committed to pushing you despite your future play

i don't really have a narrative after nero's flip. i dropped you being his partner really quickly because i actually interacted with you in the thread.

i still think CCC is town. paul is an obvtownpr. everyone else on the wagon is conftown from my point of view. you're right in that if you, hiraki, backhand, or vedith were on the wagon i would be a lot more hesitant calling it all town.

but think about it - a scumteam with nero on it really has no reason to bus when this is a natural thought process that plays out. this is what i meant at daystart about how the slingshot kill makes CCC very likely town. it's meant to bring about paranoia because of how off it is. paranoia is the

last

thing i want while i'm trying to reap towncred as scum. and if you're scum you already know that "giga bussed" is a narrative that needs to be spun.