Open 688: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Titus]

Okay what does b.a.r.d. mean?

Beyond a reasonable doubt

[Kelvin Smith]

Well then based on that who would be their most likely partners?

I'd be careful of trying too hard to speculate the entire scum team. It might not seem this way to anybody else, but I don't want to get bogged down by my own pet theories and then not be able to think outside of that range. Sure, I could try to speculate on direct interactions, but there are many possible explanations for those things. The more broad concept here is what I want to concern myself with, which is that scum between Titus and alban is likely.

With that said, I can understand that team plausibility might be important to some people, so I'll just point out a couple quick possible partners. Keep in mind, this is not a complete list, just ones that seem reasonable off the top of my head. Keep in mind that the scum team could be unlikely combinations and my theory on scum opposing the Math lynch could be wrong. It's always best to work with that in mind.

alban: Titus, Navy
Titus: alban, RadiantCowbells

[Gamma Emerald]

You say you don't want to let your theories limit your perspective but I'm pretty sure that's what happened for quite a bit of yesterday? I'm guessing you're just trying to improve but I'm like "uhhh what" a bit when reading that sentence.

[Kelvin Smith]

@Kelvin, we almost for certain know Vedith is town (it's b.a.r.d.).

I think it's fair to say that it's 100%. Unless there is some townie essentially gamethrowing by hanging onto a fake Doc claim for the entire game, there is 100% certainly scum in the Doctor pool. Likewise, unless gigabyteTroubadour is essentially gamethrowing as town here, then it is 100% impossible for them to be lying about Vedith being town. As long as we operate under these two very safe assumptions, it is fair to say that it is effectively 100% likely that Vedith is town. To say it with anything less than absolute certainty on this is suspicious to me, because it looks like trying to set yourself up for some Lylo scenario where you can try to push his mislynch over your own lynch, if things get hairy.

I am town.

Yeah, just repeating your alleged alignment over and over again isn't going to work on me. Try something else.

[Vedith]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

[Gamma Emerald]

So if Vedith is scum, Giga has to be.

Considering me and Gigga, and Math are all cops, it's impossible that I'm scum.
Nice try though, Titus.

We lynch Titus today.
I said already that Math and Titus are always going at it apart from the 1 time they were both scum. And on this Titus accepted Math as town with such ease when Math claimed town.

In UpickinFreezer they went at it as scum

[alban]

As a last ditch effort:
1. Read my D1. Once Sesq wagon started receding and COmmknight wagon was yet to build up, I was the only one on Math's slot. Yes, it's not a strong reason, I agree.
2. Read my D2. I was opposed to Sesq lynch. And I hammered coz Titus as well as Vedith said that it will bring clarity. I was not convinced, but I did the needful.
3. I was opposed to massclaiming. I still believe massclaim is the moment when the game started tilting in scum's favour.
4. I was the 3rd doc ho claimed with N1 action. Forget whether my claim to have saved Creature and Creature being a viable target makes sense or not. But why would I claim when the focus is gonna be on D1 docs? Does it make any sense? This was long before people had started massclaiming. In fact, I wasn't even sure whether docs should have claimed, but I did coz two docs claimed within a few hours of D2 beginning, and I was certain one of them was a scum.
5. I wasn't opposed to Math's lynch. I had burnt my fingers with Sesq lynch, and I didn't want a repetition of that. So, I started asking for a case on Math. One case was produced. Since the case that was produced was particularly weak, and other players went ahead with votes rather than the explanation behind those votes, I stuck to my conviction. Sure, I wasn't on the wagon, so what? Plus, why would I not be on the Math wagon if I knew for certain who he was and could see that there's no turning back, especially when he started making foolish claims and posts in last 4-5 pages before the night?
6. I tried to solve the deadlock between RC-Titus. Sure, it didn't work, coz they didn't even reply, but I tried.
7. I tried to look at players who were on both Commknight and Sesq wagon, but the response was lukewarm so I dropped it.

Each of these reasons could be collectively weak, but together they should be convincing enough to about who I am.

But if majority of the players think that I am scum, let's get it over with rather than long winding discussions that compel me to to keep making appearances.
I am all for discussion, but it makes me annoyed how fucking helpless I feel being openly implicated and yet have absolutely nothing to defend myself against.

PS. Kelvin, it's better if you stop interacting with me. I know your immediate response will be to tear this post apart, but I am sure there's nothing you haven't already said, so keep away.

[Gamma Emerald]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

Why not Kelvin?

[alban]

/Each of these reasons could be *individually* weak

[Vedith]

In UpickinFreezer they went at it as scum

Barely. They were pushing other people, not each other.

[Vedith]

Why not Kelvin?

I'd lynch you before Kelvin.

[RadiantCowbells]

I like this strategy actually

If Titus claims N4 doc, Vedith cops Gamma, Gamma cops in docs (not kelvin), any other cops on Gamma, if Vedith dies we autolynch Titus

[Kelvin Smith]

You say you don't want to let your theories limit your perspective but I'm pretty sure that's what happened for quite a bit of yesterday? I'm guessing you're just trying to improve but I'm like "uhhh what" a bit when reading that sentence.

Hence "It might not seem this way to anybody else." If you stop and think about it though, it was as true then as it is now. I don't think I ever said that Math was 100% definitively scum. I always allowed for the possibility that they were a mislynch, no matter how unlikely it seemed. But I went with it because it still seemed like a strategically superior move and nobody ever managed to produce a compelling argument that it wasn't a solid strategy. In addition, nobody was able to tell me why Math was a bad lynch and why Navy was a good lynch. And now that we have the Math scum flip, it suggests to me that there is a good chance that Navy would actually have been a very bad lynch, unless either Titus or alban are scum. Here's how I think Navy could be scum with one of them:

Spoiler: Navy/Titus

Titus was trying to get me to lynch Navy and start some shitty townbloc with her and Math. It's possible she was hoping that giving us a scum lynch on Navy, that she could also convince me at some point that she was right on Math.

Spoiler: Navy/alban

alban wouldn't commit to either the Math or Navy wagon. If he was scum, then neither lynch would be preferable, so passively resisting both while expressing some level of support for either wagon could help get him out of hot water if the lynches went through.

On top of that, he was pushing pretty much every player as possible scum, with no strong degrees of differentiation between their likelihood of being scum. This could allow him to pivot onto any mislynch he desired, without drawing too much heat.

Finally, him pushing Titus, RC, and I specifically to come to a consensus lynch might have been an attempt to get us to all agree to something outside of Math and Navy. Alternatively, if Titus is his partner, it could have been a way to get RC and I to settle for the Navy lynch without actually strongly pushing it. Then he could just get on that mislynch without heat, because we were the ones who agreed to it.

That said, I should again stress that I'm not saying that Navy is definitely scum. In fact, I think it's less likely at this point. But this is how I think a scenario where Navy is scum seems likely to be possible.

[Kelvin Smith]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

Vedith, are you claiming Night 4 Cop here? I'm a Night 4 Doc, so I'll gladly protect you tonight.

[Kelvin Smith]

PS. Kelvin, it's better if you stop interacting with me. I know your immediate response will be to tear this post apart, but I am sure there's nothing you haven't already said, so keep away.

Sorry, that's not going to happen. I won't respond to it for a little bit, because it's a long post and I'm in class (good thing I'm so good at the subject or I'd have to pay attention). That post seems long enough to take me an hour or two of writing, so it'll have to wait until I can give it my full attention.

[Titus]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

Vedith, are you claiming Night 4 Cop here? I'm a Night 4 Doc, so I'll gladly protect you tonight.

I am a night 4 doc.

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't think that it's navy/titus but something to keep in mind there is that there are confirmed scum in the docs

and like I said Navy's play sort of resembled bussed!Navy from a previous game

so lynching Navy solves the 1 doc in the docs issue and allows Math/Titus to townblock the remainder of the game

[Titus]

Alban, let's lynch Navy. We prove that's scum too.

[Kelvin Smith]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

Vedith, are you claiming Night 4 Cop here? I'm a Night 4 Doc, so I'll gladly protect you tonight.

I am a night 4 doc.

Excellent. You're on me tonight. If I die, we lynch you tomorrow. If Vedith dies, we lynch me tomorrow. Other than that, we can lynch based on Vedith's results.

[Titus]

I don't think that it's navy/titus but something to keep in mind there is that there are confirmed scum in the docs

and like I said Navy's play sort of resembled bussed!Navy from a previous game

so lynching Navy solves the 1 doc in the docs issue and allows Math/Titus to townblock the remainder of the game

And bussing Math let's you coast forver.

We can play this type of game on that but you know I don't coast.

[RadiantCowbells]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

Vedith, are you claiming Night 4 Cop here? I'm a Night 4 Doc, so I'll gladly protect you tonight.

I am a night 4 doc.

Excellent. You're on me tonight. If I die, we lynch you tomorrow. If Vedith dies, we lynch me tomorrow. Other than that, we can lynch based on Vedith's results.

I'm pretty sure that Titus should be on Gamma Emerald to guarantee the cop result. If he's town scum would just shoot him and waste both results.

[Titus]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

Vedith, are you claiming Night 4 Cop here? I'm a Night 4 Doc, so I'll gladly protect you tonight.

I am a night 4 doc.

Excellent. You're on me tonight. If I die, we lynch you tomorrow. If Vedith dies, we lynch me tomorrow. Other than that, we can lynch based on Vedith's results.

Why shouldn't I just heal Vedith and have a hypothetical scumteam in the dark where you would heal?

[Kelvin Smith]

I don't think that it's navy/titus but something to keep in mind there is that there are confirmed scum in the docs

and like I said Navy's play sort of resembled bussed!Navy from a previous game

so lynching Navy solves the 1 doc in the docs issue and allows Math/Titus to townblock the remainder of the game

I'm not accusing you of plagiarizing me, but just to be clear, that the thing I just said earlier for why Titus and Navy could be a team.

[RadiantCowbells]

some of it is stuff that you've said that I had already thought of yesterday, the rest is OC from an OG.

[Kelvin Smith]

Titus, answer us this.
Are you a day 4 doc?

If no, we lynch here today.
If yes, we don't and I can check someone tonight, and if I die then Titus is scum.

It will give us 2 confirmed town tomorrow, or a confirmed scum with the possibility of lynching a scum today.

Vedith, are you claiming Night 4 Cop here? I'm a Night 4 Doc, so I'll gladly protect you tonight.

I am a night 4 doc.

Excellent. You're on me tonight. If I die, we lynch you tomorrow. If Vedith dies, we lynch me tomorrow. Other than that, we can lynch based on Vedith's results.

I'm pretty sure that Titus should be on Gamma Emerald to guarantee the cop result. If he's town scum would just shoot him and waste both results.

This is only a good idea if Gamma claims that he Cops tonight. We're out of Doc shots tonight, so her protecting me is a better play, because scum can kill Gamma Night 5 anyway if he doesn't activate tonight.