Micro 725: Nomination Mafia | Game Over!

[Chumley]

Please note of course Alduskkel was on the CommKnight lynch at the time which you now I considered by that point to be town but he basically voiced the opinion that BTD6 was scum and I expected him to switch in on BTD6 since CK wasn't a viable lynch but interestingly he didn't.

[rb]

well this lynchpool is shit

chumley newbtown

alchemist townlean

commknight obvtown

~

sigh

[Alchemist21]

well this lynchpool is shit

chumley newbtown

alchemist townlean

commknight obvtown

~

sigh

Opinions on CMM and Ald?

[rb]

i guess scum by PoE?

maybe im wrong about CMM and his glib demeanour is actually scum

[Draynth]

ConManMick has been prodded.

[Chumley]

@ConManMick when you show back up I'm curious to know who do you think is scummier CommKnight or Alchemist21?

[Chumley]

Also please note as I've mentioned before in the past I'll be leaving for work shortly and won't be back till after PM Central Time probably sometime between 4-6 PM

[ConManMick]

Sorry I am the worst, I keep opening this and reading but not replying. I think I may have missed some Q's, hit me up with whatever and when I get home from court I'll review. Lynch pool is meh

@chum prolly comm but that's a guy thing and I'd rather review

[Alchemist21]

CMM I want your opinions on everyone.

[Alduskkel]

I really wish you guys hadn't hammered BTD6. I had a bad feeling he was gonna be a mislynch and that scum was somewhere in the transition onto him. I was gonna get back on later and try to make a case for him being town but then I get back on and boom you guys had mislynched him.

Something doesn't feel right about this. I can't know what you're doing in real life, but you had most of July 8th, a Saturday, to say something. Why didn't you get around to it?

Also, why exactly did you vote for me yesterday?

@CK: You went from a town read on BTD in post 174 to a scumread on him in post 216. Describe how that change happened. Also, explain to me your thought processes on Day 1 that led you to never vote me despite scumreading me highly -- despite the fact that you showed little to no hesitation with your votes on CMM, Chumley, or BTD6.

[Alduskkel]

I used the word "despite" twice like a dingdong but you get what I mean.

[Chumley]

I can't know what you're doing in real life, but you had most of July 8th, a Saturday, to say something. Why didn't you get around to it?

I worked on Saturday and it was my baby sister's 2nd birthday

[Alduskkel]

Also, why exactly did you vote for me yesterday?

[CommKnight]

@CK: You went from a town read on BTD in post 174 to a scumread on him in post 216. Describe how that change happened. Also, explain to me your thought processes on Day 1 that led you to never vote me despite scumreading me highly -- despite the fact that you showed little to no hesitation with your votes on CMM, Chumley, or BTD6.

When I did my ISO, I focused in on their posts entirely. When I focused on BTD (and you can read my thoughts on him in 216), I found it to be scummy. But in 174 I wasn't totally focused in on him, I didn't fully ISO anyone in 174 and at that point BTD just felt more town. That vote was a direct intention to hammer when I voted BTD, I even gave a warning over 8 hours prior to voting that I would do so after work if nothing changed. So people had those 8 hours to decide if they were on whether to stay there or not.

As far as Chumley and CMM I do believe I was the first/second vote on both of them and they were no where close to being lynched. Chumley I initially SR his behaviour and was ready to lynch him. CMM started posting some nonsense and not contributing to the game. But when you compare CMM and rb side-by-side. Their plays are both similar. With the lynch-pool today I'd be surprised if one of the two (if not both) isn't scum.

The below spoiler is mostly me discussing my thoughts to Aldu and why he's still there in my SR's. Feel free to read it though.

Spoiler: Aldu

As for not voting you, it's a conflicting read. You're not being utterly useless. You're posting content whether or not I agree with your view or the fact you aren't focusing on anyone really but me. I was in the mindset of not risking running you up until I was 100% sure on you. Not only that, but BTD kinda took priority by day's end there. I mean hell, even now there's the small chance you're town which is why i want Alchemist and Chumley to be serious today with making a plan. We need a plan B if scum is either of Alchemist or Chumley.

Now Aldu, I want to know your thoughts on this:

Do you think scum!Comm would intentionally put himself on the block today and not his partner instead? What would the advantage be?

Do you think there'd be a reason for scum to put town!Comm on the block today? Out of the three of us, if you are town, that'd mean there is town alive who thinks I'm scummy and you WERE voting me yesterday. They'd only need one more townie to push a mislynch.

To reiterate. Would I risk myself on the block if I were scum when there ARE people alive who were voting me at day's end? Or does it not make more sense that I'm an easy mislynch to push?

Because something I thought about as well. Sure, I originally thought D2 would always be 1 on and 1 off. Or even both off so they can mess with town. But what if BOTH scum are on the lynch-pool and they put a 3rd one that is townie and isn't an obvious mislynch candidate? I do not believe that is the case here, but it is indeed a possibility in this set-up where if they mislynch the 3rd, presumably they'd be safe going into LYLO at D3 with all eyes on the 3 NOT in the lynch-pool.

All I'm saying is that those who played with me probably know I'm an easy mislynch to push when it comes down to the wire. Because of my different play-style than those I play with I am the outsider so mislynching me isn't that hard.

Now to catch you up with right now why I'm firmly believing all 3 are a mislynch? Because neither Alchemist or Chumley is pushing for me to die today. They aren't being self-preservation voting me. They aren't trying to play me. They'd have to be the smartest scum to play like they are and not push me today. So hence, I believe scum isn't in this lynch-pool. It has to be 2 of Aldu, rb and CMM. Which 2, I do not know. But do you think rb and CMM are scum together Aldu? Do you see why I'm heavily thinking you're one of the two? I don't see either Alchemist or Chumley playing me here unless they are trying to buddy me and mislynch the other one. But I just don't see that happening. Of the 3 remaining, with rb and CMM's play. I don't see them having the balls to actually pull something like this gamble off where both of them are not in the pool. So you tell me Aldu,
with knowing my thoughts on this, presuming you be town, who do YOU think the scum team is? I'm not promising I'll TR you, but at least let me see who you think it is so I can consider this from another point of view.

[CommKnight]

Actually, that spoiler I ask Aldu to say who he thinks the scum team is so I can see it from another point of view. But I think knowing everyone's point of view might help solve this. Who do people think the scum team is?

[Alchemist21]

Now to catch you up with right now why I'm firmly believing all 3 are a mislynch? Because neither Alchemist or Chumley is pushing for me to die today. They aren't being self-preservation voting me. They aren't trying to play me.

Chumley is being preservationist and voting me though. Not that I think it's necessarily scummy but it's worth pointing out because it means this point doesn't hold up.

That said, at least 3 people (you, me, and rb) have agreed the lynch pool is terrible. If scum are in the lynch pool, I think it would be a 1:1 split and scum are hoping to make that scum player look Town by grouping them with other hard-to-lynch Town. For that they'd have to believe one of the 2 Townies could be lynched over the scum. This is where I think Chumley voting me over you makes him more likely Town. Of all 3 candidates, I'm probably the least likely to get lynched, so it doesn't make sense for scumChumley to have gone for me instead of you.

I'm still kinda conflicted with which of rb/CMM is scum, but I'm leaning more towards CMM because there really was no reason he shouldn't have been posting more. Though now that I think about it CMM/rb could be more likely than I thought. You made a good point in an earlier post that scum fucked themselves over if they've put 3 solid Town slots in the lynch pool by making themselves more likely to get lynched the next day. It strikes me as careless play. Ald, for his lack of activity, seems more thoughtful than to set his team up like that, while CMM and rb have been playing in a way that seems like they don't care too much about the game or put much thought into it. Maybe I shouldn't go too far down this rabbit hole though since the last time I read someone based on assumptions on their personality it was wrong, and who knows whether or not WIFOM is involved.

idk, if Ald were scum and scum were going for the 1:1 split with the plan to make the lynch candidate look Town I think Ald would have been in here instead of you or Chumley. His play is solid enough that he could have kept himself from getting lynched and it would have been likely they could guarantee the lynch fell on the 3rd slot. And if ald is scum and scum went for the 2:0 split-

Assuming scum gets lynched tomorrow:

Tomorrow is 5 alive 3 to lynch (lylo)
D4 is 4 alive 3 to lynch ; only 3 players can be lynched this day.
D5 is 3 alive 2 to lynch (lylo)

Yeah I don't think they can win that. The second scum either puts themselves in the D4 lynch pool and gets lynched, or leaves themselves out and gets lynched D5. They'd have to find some way to break up the 2-player Town block that would form today and get one to turn on the other. But then it doesn't make sense for Ald to have put the two of us together after making comments about how we trust each other. If he was scum and thought it all through he wouldn't have set it up for us to block together.

Hmm.... gun to my head it's an RB/CMM scumteam.

[Alchemist21]

I suppose in theory an Ald/Comm scumteam could work out but they're doing a fantastic job of distancing if that's the case.

[Draynth]

Day 2, Votecount 1

Alchemist21 (1):

Chumley

CommKnight (0):

Chumley (0):

Not Voting (5):

CommKnight, rb, Alduskkel, Alchemist21, ConManMick

You may only vote for players in the above lynch pool .
With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-07-25 12:30:00)

[/area]

*If I ever make a mistake in a VC please don't hesitate to draw my attention to it either in game or via pm.

[ConManMick]

I've been in and out of court all week, apologies.
Alch, you asked my reads -
I'd been townreading you, that's why I followed onto BTD6 wagon
I liked Al's play because when the game got slow, there were posts that made me think he was trying to drive it
rb pretty null cos we were dicking around early
Chum and Comm bottom out my list

[Alduskkel]

Now Aldu, I want to know your thoughts on this:

Do you think scum!Comm would intentionally put himself on the block today and not his partner instead? What would the advantage be?

Do you think there'd be a reason for scum to put town!Comm on the block today? Out of the three of us, if you are town, that'd mean there is town alive who thinks I'm scummy and you WERE voting me yesterday. They'd only need one more townie to push a mislynch.

To reiterate. Would I risk myself on the block if I were scum when there ARE people alive who were voting me at day's end? Or does it not make more sense that I'm an easy mislynch to push?

The way you phrase the first question, it means that in this scenario your scumpartner is rb or CMM. In which case, either one doesn't seem like they would do a very good job at defending himself from a lynch. If I were scum with rb or CMM, I wouldn't want to put either up for nomination, unless BOTH were put up. Then I would probably try to push the one who was town (and push whichever of rb/CMM were my scumpartner to be more active).

I think there are certainly valid reasons for scum to put town-you up for potential lynching today. If you're town, then maybe the scum plan want to let me push your lynch, then swing around to lynch me on Day 3 when you flip town. I don't think you're an "easy mislynch," though. Not many people other than me have expressed a scumread of you.

As for the possibility that there's two scum in the lynch pool today -- I really doubt it. It's absurdly risky and I don't see a plausible scumteam in there. Alch seems the towniest, and a scumteam of you/Chumley would have to be crazy to put yourselves in competition with him. Not only that, but it wouldn't make sense with your interactions with each other.

Who do I think the scumteams are then? I'd say it's between you, Chumley, rb, and CMM. You/Chumley doesn't make sense, so one of rb/CMM pretty much has to be scum. Possibly both, but they're giving so little content that it's hard to tell. What I'm hoping is that there's one scum between you and Chumley and that I can figure out which one of you it is.

What do you think of Alch's post about the possibility of rb/CMM?

@Alch: I'll be honest, if I were scum I would not put myself in the lynch group today. But I might have just opened up a can of WIFOM there. Also, I don't really understand what you're saying in the last part of your post.

@CMM: Can you elaborate on why you're scumreading CK and Chumley? And also, which one is scummier to you?

P.S. Not sure where to fit this in with the rest of my post, but if the scumteam is rb/CMM then the thought process behind today's lynch group might have been as simple as "force the town to lynch a townie, then Alduskkel on Day 3 for the win."

[Alduskkel]

I see you online rb.

[Alchemist21]

@Alch: I'll be honest, if I were scum I would not put myself in the lynch group today. But I might have just opened up a can of WIFOM there. Also, I don't really understand what you're saying in the last part of your post.

What I'm saying is this - if scum put 3 Townies in today's lynch pool and we come to realize all 3 are Town, then scum have set themselves up to lose. Whichever 2 of the 3 are not lynched today will just form a small Townblock and since they can't be Nightkilled, they could survive all the way through a 3-p lylo. Scum's only chance to win at that point is to do it on 5-p lylo, which has a 67% chance of lynching scum that day just based on chance. If that happens, the remaining scum will eventually get PoE'd out. It's a gamble unlikely to pay off and I think you would have thought things through enough to realize a 1:1 split was better.

[Alchemist21]

I've been in and out of court all week, apologies.
Alch, you asked my reads -
I'd been townreading you, that's why I followed onto BTD6 wagon
I liked Al's play because when the game got slow, there were posts that made me think he was trying to drive it
rb pretty null cos we were dicking around early
Chum and Comm bottom out my list

I notice Ald is missing from this list.

You also give no reason whatsoever for Chum and Comm.

[Chumley]

Good evening guys. If we are all 3 towns I'm probably the weakest link since I have a busy schedule and I'm playing a game elsewhere. I'd be willing to take it for the team if need be. No need to rush anything though we should try and get as much info out of the day phase as possible. UNVOTE: Alchemist21

[Alchemist21]

What do you think of the other 3 right now?