Real Folk Blues Rematch [GAME OVER]

[Gorkington]

vedith might actually be town
:/

jesus.

unvote

if i didnt already?

[Gorkington]

pros for townchara would be:

i) pretty believable adjustments in reads, especially on not fury and doggo.
ii) relaxed scumhunting (doesnt come across at all like theyre trying to fake their reads)
iii) one of the first pushers on slysly immediately after neroflip
iv) used a lot of meta on tywin in a way that looks realish? theres also a lot of noisy arguing there thatfeels more likely to be town poking scum rather than scum/scum distancing? would need examples of chara doing that as scum to be okay with flipping perspective on this.
v) after nero was killed, chara's main scumreads were tywin, a50 and slysly. that would be a lot of bussing.
vi) ends up voting for slysly when slysly vs tywin competition reaches peak, which is pretty consistent
vii) gamesolving stuff coming into d2 feels alright/not like padded forced scum content

detractions against chara would be:

i) pushing alternatives to slysly when he was being wagoned,
MV progression looks realish and subsequent push onto tywin kind of makes sense with their read progression
but just on the merit of "oh god our ninja is being lynched maybe i can softpush us into lynching somewhere else"
being a possible thing i cant not mention this.
ii) softdefense of a50 in 3547 is kind of gross when theyre scumreading them?
iii) most of chara's scumreads on scum dissipated and reversed on d2. it doesnt really strike me as fake, but its still a thing.
iv) the resistance to a50 wagon makes sense if they were townreading him, but it doesnt honestly kind of feel skeevy. does it make sense for scum to double down like this when theres a guilty on your scummate?

other general thoughts:

they defend a lot of townslots from pushes. if they are scum, they made it a lot harder for their team to mislynch with how they played.
i would be interested in seeing how a50's interactions with chara look. does he buddy them?

***update:

the interactions around 3702/3718 are interesting. would appreciate someone looking them over and giving thoughts on them.
if anyone knows not chara's tendency to bus as scum, that would be useful (

@math?

).

summary:

theres definitely a few reasons to feel kind of wary of chara, but overall i just kind of feel like i understand how they could come to where they came to with most of their choices this game?
need to dive vedith, but im kind of worried that the lame ari defense might be one of those "too good to be true" things like with smith.

[Gorkington]

Well, I asked about Ari not being recruited and asked if masionizer works only on VTs or PRs too. And Titus said it was all town with certain flavours. The recruit failed on Ari, so I voted.

but he could have been a town that wasnt on the list? why did that make you feel ambivalent over someone that you had taken a vested interest in hard defending before then?

i want a follow-up on this.

[Insomniacs]

I don't know NC's tendency to bus, but it does buddy with A50 most games I see em together. Once they were scum together I think, so idk. 3718 reads genuine to me and A50's response to that makes me think he's trying to appease/buddy NC himself.

[Cerberus v666]

335 nero scum thoughts, without support, then...
1650 obliquely defends tywin, and questions the sly wagon
2208 questions why people are hopping off slysly?
2219 down to ambivalent about nero(again without cause)
Nero gets shot.

OKay, so that whole progression above is weird as fuck and I sincerely don't know how the fuck to interpret it. It looks like a bunch of defense of scum slots, but then changes to concerns about the scum wagon falling apart. Like, that feels like a super town reaction there, since his pet push(gamma) was picking up steam and the wagon he was against was losing it, so it makes sense to question wtf is happening there. If that was all there was, those posts would be strong town points in his favor, but then there's also the weak ass "this scum slot made a post that I kinda think is scummy but idk why but now suddenly I no longer have an opinion on them and was ignoring them".

The Tywin+Sly defense in the same post also feels weird to me. Not scum weird, but "why would scum make a post just to defend two of their teammates at the same time and not do anything else" weird. Feels like a really bad move if you end up dead early, with those instant associatives.

After the shot, he's third on the slysly wagon. He obviously couldn't have gone back to gamma, but again, weird as fuck choice to immediately go after his ninja right after his godfather got shot.

2963: Supports lynches on *TWO* scum slots...ones who he had semi-defended earlier...

Fuck this is a mess.
5648: Not too fond of giving Ram town points and not unvoting. Three days out from deadline kinda mitigates the concern a bit, but mmm.
6603: unnecessary defense of a potential mislynch in JJ. mmm.

Didn't vote to lynch Tywin, and didn't actually speak on Tywin at all during the time he was being wagoned. That's really weird.

6979: Starts off with yet another vote on scum.(before the guilty is announced)

Okay, done for the night I think. First of three pages done(reading MV+FB+FA to have all the VC's come up so I can somewhat track the game state relative to his posts). I didn't actually manage to fall asleep, just spent a bunch of time in bed trying to sleep and failing so I'm still not thihking especially clearly.

There was a decent bit of content between 2219 and 5648, but I don't think it amounted to all that much. I'll reread that piece of his iso when I wake up/tomorrow night, and continue on.

Overall, at this stage, I'd have to say I'm overall leaning pretty strongly towards MV being town though, from the first three days of play.

Key points: expressed suspicion on both Tywin and Slysly, but actually supported the slysly wagon. If you're going to bus, bus the goon. It's possible he felt that slysly was simply a lost cause, and tywin was well positioned, but the whole thing really strikes me as very weird for scum. Hell, if you're going to bus, fucking set it up so at least one of the two slots is a counterwagon to the other, so that way people who do vca and shit will give a buncha credit to the unlynched slot. Basically, don't see why he'd start the push on slysly over Tywin. He culd have always gone to slysly at some point, but no attempt was made to strengthen that push. The early vote on A50 kinda speaks well for him too, but it would mean a lot more if he had actually done some more casing. He does, when people ask him, actually spit out perfectly reasonable reasons, so it's still pretty good overall though.

The main negatives of his early play are the D1 associatives with Nero and Tywin. I don't think they're strong enough to outweigh my other points though.

Regarding Vedith: I had actually completely forgotten that Vedith was Chara originally. I didn't have any strong feelings about the slot, but mmm there's a lot more Vedith slot content to look at than I had thought. I might have to look at that again(I gave you vedith because I have already looked at the just vedith slot myself).

[Nosferatu]

quack

[Nosferatu]

i actually had zero reason to have any thoughts on nero

i cant even bullshit them

[Cerberus v666]

i actually had zero reason to have any thoughts on nero

i cant even bullshit them

It's just quite weird for you to specifically point out a post of his as scummy, but then...ya know...go completely neutral. It makes that read feel really manufactured, like you forgot you made a point of noting that when it came up later on. It was like 2k posts later. I'm sure you probably did actually completely forget, simply because so much time had passed etc...which is the reason why I'm not actually considering that point as a particularly strong one against you.

[Nosferatu]

i get the read being manufactured

on the real in our hydra pt i just listed him as one of the sus people i saw from skimming so i was looking for a post of his to justify that

[Drixx]

I know that it's just going to get brushed off again, but I'm becoming more paranoid of Cerb by the page. He tried to rope me into tag teaming with him, and if I were to fall into our usual rhythm of working together then I would be far less likely to scrutinize him. We know there's a poisoner. They are presumably a self-aligned individual. What would that person be best served by doing right now?

[Gorkington]

what if. PV. is. just the poisoner.
o: o: o:

[Gorkington]

do you think townCerb doesnt try to work with you given that the two of you apparently work well together? like, save the paranoia for after the PV flip because theres literally 0 chance of cerb going over PV ever. you could hit me in the face with ten cases and im not voting cerb over PV with this fucking mountain of evidence in favour of PVSK.

[Vaxkiller]

@cerb

What does scum!drixx look like?

[Gorkington]

drixx literally. cannot. be. scum.

[Cerberus v666]

I know that it's just going to get brushed off again, but I'm becoming more paranoid of Cerb by the page. He tried to rope me into tag teaming with him, and if I were to fall into our usual rhythm of working together then I would be far less likely to scrutinize him. We know there's a poisoner. They are presumably a self-aligned individual. What would that person be best served by doing right now?

Holy shot Drixx.
I would just friggin kill you man. For the same reason we were going to kill Mastin in SU2 had the game not jumped to lylo a phase early...scum!me can't trust that you wouldn't rather lynch me than risk losing to me, so even if I had a slight edge versus the other scumspect, it wouldn't be enough.

@vax: He tries. :p it's not impossible this apathy is a deliberate play on my knowledge of him, but I think it's more likely real. He didn't get caught up to the game until after all the interesting things had happened, and now he's trapped in it because of his refusal to replace out of a game simple because he doesn't really care how it goes.

[Drixx]

I do care about the outcome. The issue is that by the time I caught up all the obvious scum were all caught and now it's a needle in a haystack nearly 14,000 posts large.

As far as your assertion that I would rather lose WITH you than TO you .... nah. I just don't want to let me tendency to view you positively to result in the same outcome as SaGa Frontier where suddenly the game is over and you are a 3rd party and have won.

[Cerberus v666]

Eh, SF was different. That wasn't about you perceiving me positively, it was about your desire to view third parties positively. That was the bias I used, not anything about me personally. In this game the third parties are clearly antitown, given than a protown one has already left the game, so it's not a gambit I could utilize.

I'm also inclined to believe my assertion is closer to the truth than you might be conscious of. You did make a point earlier this game of calling my win in SF as something I've rubbed in your face. With that perspective, it's hard to think a desire to prevent that, specifically, from happening again doesn't exist.

What are your thoughts on what Gork and I had to say recently about Nosferatu(MV) and Vedith(NC)?

[Cerberus v666]

(Also, please reply to my earlier point asking you why poisoner!cerb doesn't kill anyone until cirno, and why I PICK cirno when he's not looking at me, and also let me know why he wouldn't be trying hard to swing the focus onto groupscum suspects for today's lynch rather than PV.)

[Drixx]

(Also, please reply to my earlier point asking you why poisoner!cerb doesn't kill anyone until cirno, and why I PICK cirno when he's not looking at me, and also let me know why he wouldn't be trying hard to swing the focus onto groupscum suspects for today's lynch rather than PV.)

It doesn't need replying to. We were scum in SU2 together and what % of our kill attempts actually worked? How many day phases into the game did it take until a night kill of our choosing actually died in the morning? It's a closed setup and you could easily have poisoned people who got lynched or people who got saved (or some combination of both).

Or you could have withheld it just to make the argument you are now.

[Cerberus v666]

(Also, please reply to my earlier point asking you why poisoner!cerb doesn't kill anyone until cirno, and why I PICK cirno when he's not looking at me, and also let me know why he wouldn't be trying hard to swing the focus onto groupscum suspects for today's lynch rather than PV.)

It doesn't need replying to. We were scum in SU2 together and what % of our kill attempts actually worked? How many day phases into the game did it take until a night kill of our choosing actually died in the morning? It's a closed setup and you could easily have poisoned people who got lynched or people who got saved (or some combination of both).

Or you could have withheld it just to make the argument you are now.

Except you have to consider that we already have AT LEAST one missing kill unaccounted for, possibly two, because Dave couldn't kill all that much. You also have to consider that, assuming my role is the mirror of randoms, that there are two other anti town kill sources, and would be targeting appropriately. There are two missing poison kills, putting us up to 3 or 4 missing kills, and some of them happened on nights where we already know where the protected resources were allocated. And none of that, including the (more probable) option of me withholding the kill, accounts for WHY CIRNO IS DEAD WHEN HE GETS ME TO LYLO A DAY SOONER.

Idk, maybe I'm overestimating the respect you should be giving my target selection in this environment, but I don't believe I'd have failed this often as scum poisoner, or bothered with the lie detect claim unless completely kill proof(in which case killing cirno makes even less sense).

Are you going to respond to the part where I asked you to contribute in a more significant fashion that just sparring with me?

[Ginngie]

BOOP, Vedith has been prodded

[Gorkington]

Well, I asked about Ari not being recruited and asked if masionizer works only on VTs or PRs too. And Titus said it was all town with certain flavours. The recruit failed on Ari, so I voted.

but he could have been a town that wasnt on the list? why did that make you feel ambivalent over someone that you had taken a vested interest in hard defending before then?

i want a follow-up on this.

[Gorkington]

Spoiler: vedith/ari thing

Ok, I am gunsmithing you tonight. I wanted to do it yesterday, but I decided Drixx not being turbo lynched is important.

I wanted Math sorted. My TRs wanted them alive. GS check fails. Lie detect doesn't.

Who do you want lynched today?

Should I be scared?

I'm, sure you did want Math sorted... But to know if lying, or to know if PR, that's the question...

I'll lynch any of Master, PV Mhs or Wheme.
I won't lynch Ari, Random or Insomniacs

Yeah, I only had a list of flavornames I could masonize. PV wasn't on it. It was Ari who I guessed and failed. :/

How does a masonizer work? Only on town, or only on non PR town?

Yeah, I only had a list of flavornames I could masonize. PV wasn't on it. It was Ari who I guessed and failed. :/

How does a masonizer work? Only on town, or only on non PR town?

Usually, only town. Mine is only town with certain flavors.

VOTE: Ari

VOTE: Ari

Our wagon gains a vote and you immediately abandon ship.

11754

You're dense....

Titus isn't a cop...

Okay

Well uh

She is

But not in that way

This was weird

I don't get it?

Ugh....


She's a neighborizer for 5 specific characters and no one else.

It's not a cop shot

I don't get it?

VT got no gun

Who the fuck is a masonizer then?

She's a gunsmith/neighborizer

That s not a masonizer

MASONIZER OR NEIGHBORIZER

IT ONLY WORKS

FOR 5 FUCKING PEOPLE

ONLY

5

PEOPLE

and then no follow-up after.

cerb i could use your eyes on this progression.
im still struggling to see how this works
and vedith has been very intentionally uncooperative with addressing this so im hoping you might be able to help me figure out whether this is as bad as ive felt it is.

he basically hard defends ari up to the point that titus says that she tried to masonize him, and that makes him break his read on him.
more or less comes across like he believes titus has a guilty on him, so he votes there, but then when its explained that she doesnt he keeps it there anyway in spite of him saying that he would never lynch ari?
it just seems kind of weird to me, was wondering if i could get your take on it and ginn's reaction to vedith and whether you feel like that looks real.

[PeregrineV]

Looked over Master Vampire early iso- it may be confirmation bias, but still don't think he's scum.

[Vedith]

What do you mean when Titus said she never had a guilty?
She said that town with certain fluff is taken in. And Ari wasn't taken in the group.