Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[CommKnight]

You're still not saying who else you want to lynch for the second lynch RC, stop avoiding please and have the balls to actually fully address what I am asking of you.

[RadiantCowbells]

Yes except that you have seen my play enough to full well know that I don't make opportunistic wagon selections. I happen to agree with the general sentiment of the game.

When have I ever as scum replaced in and started taking convenient reads on convenient wagons? I universally replace in and try to start something new. I'll wait.

[CommKnight]

Well nice contradiction. "I universaly replace in and try to start something new." I'm still waiting for something "new.". All your below null line reads are the top wagons, all your TR's are potential buddies. You won't lynch Kind who next to you gives one of the highest sorting lynches in this game.

This game can be an easy town-win or they can be suckered in by RC like they always do. No one wanted to lynch RC in past games when I called him out. It won't change this game no matter what I say because they'll never get it through their head.

RC is one of the easiest players I have in terms of reading their alignment right. They throw quite the tantrum when things aren't going their way regardless of alignment. But it's easy to see past that and see the scum motivation as well. When both flips are town (myself and whoever else he pushes), he'll claim something stupid and sucker you in for a 3rd mislynch and a perfect mafia victory because he'll make sure to leave the number of possibilities as open as he can keep them.

The motivation to keep himself and King alive (especially if King really is town and RC is the scum) is that keeping the people with the most possible pairings alive will make mislynch easier to push tomorrow. If I've seen this play done once I've seen it done a hundred times and RC is nothing new in terms of doing it.

You can fight the probabilities, you can fight my cases, but in the end, you can't change that I'm right in this being the optimal play for town to lynch both RC and King.

[CommKnight]

Here's the other thing, if I lynch 2/4 of my potential scum buddies, that leaves 2 people to 50/50 it if I were scum tomorrow. Lynching me now is just sub-optimal play when I'm calling a spade a spade when others will not.

[RadiantCowbells]

RC is one of the easiest players I have in terms of reading their alignment right. They throw quite the tantrum when things aren't going their way regardless of alignment. But it's easy to see past that and see the scum motivation as well. When both flips are town (myself and whoever else he pushes), he'll claim something stupid and sucker you in for a 3rd mislynch and a perfect mafia victory because he'll make sure to leave the number of possibilities as open as he can keep them.

You hard townread me the only game that you've seen me as scum.

I don't think that you're scum here but I will have no qualms about policy lynching you.

[CommKnight]

Go ahead, do what you want RC, my vote ain't moving. I'm 1v1'ing you here and now. Either you or me isn't making it to tomorrow. You're not only calling me "likely town" but trying to brush off something you know will be a mislynch as a "policy lynch". It's EASY to see through this lie.

Also I never really hard TR'd you. I just thought it likely that you hard-bussed both of your mafia buddies as I would not put something like that past you either.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Commknight

Here you go =]

[CommKnight]

Your vote was already on me RC. Or did you forget already?

If town actually LISTENS to me this time around, I'll be glad to see you flip red. You're caught red-handed this game and it'd take some straws being grasped to wiggle your way out.

[RadiantCowbells]

Commknight ladies and gentlemen.

[CommKnight]

Here let me go dig up a quote from that game where I called the entire game state as is and which of the two would result in town losing because of poor play.

[RadiantCowbells]

Here let me go dig up a quote from that game where I called the entire game state as is and which of the two would result in town losing because of poor play.

Right you said that it MIGHT be fitz/rc. I'll go find some quotes from the game.

[RadiantCowbells]

Spoiler: Commknight

@RC, I'll let you handle Realeo. He may be town, but his reads are shit. If he goes into reading people with the assumption I'm mafia, he's already on the wrong path and will hence read them wrong as well.

Also both Vedith and Dunn are scum. But I think one is WW and the other is mafia. If our goal is to lynch Werewolf today, it might be Vedith. Dunn seems to try to set me up as looking like mafia (and ultimately being obvious about it) so I don't think he's a wolf.

What's the preferred lynch today? WW or mafia? Or anything not town...

I guess it's wolf. But if it's mafia I'm not going to complain too much. It just means whichever faction we flip, if wolves kill town tonight and they have 2 left, they'll be top priority to be lynched tomorrow and the next day. But if mafia have 2 alive and wolves hold their shot, mafia would become priority tomorrow.

Vedith/Realeo mafia with KMD/Dunn as WW?

I think we need Fitz and RC to vote up Vedith, because Dunn is gonna be a troll for the rest of the game and Vedith ain't gonna vote himself. Potential buddy Realeo won't either.

Commknight

if you are mafia I want you to hardclaim and we will not lynch you today and if we have the opportunity to kingmake we'll give you the win.
If we end up lynching wrong because I'm making bad assumptions about your alignment then you will lose as well.

You really think I'm mafia or WW? I'm just gonna let ya fucking mislynch if you're that much of a fool. Dunn pushed me. Vedith and kmd are after me. We need to lynch a wolf today and Realeo is questionable. I'm legit thinking town is RC, Fitz and myself. But the real mafia gotta speak up because if we mislynch *AT ALL* today, both town and mafia loses.

Right now:
Realeo - Town/WW - leaning WW
Vedith - Mafia/WW
Radiant Cowbells - Town/WW - leaning Town
kmd - Town/Mafia/WW
havingfitz - Town/WW - leaning Town

I think the lynchpool needs to be in Realeo, Vedith and kmd. I think kmd might be the mafia because the mafia didn't submit a list and kmd was one of the quiet ones. So Realeo or Vedith today would be ideal with Vedith being the top choice. Unless he HARD CLAIMS MAFIA.

Alright here's what we're going to do.

Vedith

If you haven't hardclaimed mafia in the next 24 hours I am lynching you.

This I can get behind. Add my threat of lynching you to it. Which means if 2 others agree, you're fucked without a hard-claim Vedith.

Votecount FINAL

• (LYNCH)

  Dunnstral
  - Vedith, Realeo, havingfitz, RadiantCowbells
  
  (1)

  CommKnight
  - Dunnstral
  
  (0)
  Realeo
  
  (2)

  Vedith
  - CommKnight, kmd4390
  
  (0)
  RadiantCowbells
  
  (0)
  kmd4390
  
  (0)
  havingfitz
  
  
  (0)
  Not Voting
  
  With
  7
  alive, it's
  4
  to lynch.
  Deadline in
  (expired on 2017-07-10 23:00:00)
  (July 10^th).
  
  
  Mod Notes:
  Mod will be V/LA this weekend. Apologies if things go a little slower.

Even on D4 KMD was not on mafia wagon. I don't think he's wolf, he'd have gladly voted Dunn over Vedith if that were the case.

VOTE: Vedith

Honestly this vote count speaks louder than the some crud scum will make up today to survive.

RC is town or mafia. Not wolf.
KMD is town or mafia. Not wolf.

That leaves fitz, Vedith and Realeo for wolves. I can bet you Vedith is indeed wolf. But who his buddy is out of fitz and Realeo is something we'll have to figure out tomorrow. If mafia doesn't work with town today him and his faction loses. So Vedith lynch is the best lynch.

Note that I was wolf, not mafia. Please selectively quote the post where you said that me and Fitz might be scum but never followed up on because it wasn't your actual reads.
You're expecting me to take your read on me seriously but I'm not going to do that when you're scumreading me to prove a point.

[CommKnight]

If I had to hard-place bets right now.
Set-up 1:
WW - Vedith & Realeo
Mafia - kmd
Town - RC, fitz & myself

Set-up2:
WW: RC & havingfitz
Mafia - Vedith
Town - kmd & Realeo

Vastly different but if it's set-up 1 like I hope, it should be a breeze for town to win. If it's set-up two, town is fucked.

If you ISO me that game, when RC and I replaced in (roughly the same time). I was gunning for him and had mafia and town listened to me, WW's would've been 1 down.

Take note of the last line I said there about set-up two. Set-up one was a HOPE. As in I HOPE I am initially wrong about some of my reads such as my read on RC.

But this game he gets no repraise. It's him or me. If town's smart this time around, we'll take RC out and immediately reduce the number of possibilities by the most and if I'm correct about RC being scum this time around. Both hydras would be 100% cleared as town this game.

[CommKnight]

It's not to make a point RC, it's to get scum. This time you had the shitty luck of rolling scum on a slot I didn't TR (and was actually completely inactive). PoE points to you and your reads and play thus far, points to you.

Anyway, before we take up an entire page just ourselves (if we haven't already) I'm getting off. I stand my ground firmly on this read and I will be proven correct upon flips.

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't know what you're trying to prove here but get over yourself.

[Kingmaker]

And no RC. YOU ARE BEING LYNCHED. This time there is no me helping you and your buddy win by lynching another faction (That isn't here this time for you to cop out in behind). You're flip #1, King is flip #2.

TheBrie and GuiltyLion are off the pool for both lynches (until we get a scum flip) and lynching me when I'm trying to actually peg scum is just stupid.

What can you add to this game if we left you alive RC?

Point to some townie things King has done so far.

Now of course we won't use this to decide the lynch today, but this basically helps as the days go by and we can eliminate entire rows and columns of duos as people flip town/scum.

So... That was a lie then?

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm concerned that Commknight realized that I was looking for him to go full idiot mode deathtunnel and played up the repeated insistence that I'm scum to look like idiot town and get written off.

There was a huge tone change from 'haunting me if I push a lynch on him' to rando full blown deathtunnel and he's bad but this level of repeated claiming victory with nothing behind it might be beyond even him.

[Vic Sage]

I'm actually feeling pretty good about RC. Not sure if that's an alignment thing with him or just that his game has improved since the last time I've read him, but it's the plain truth. Still most happy with a D1 dog lynch, but I want to take a minute to make sure we don't have a gamebreaking strategy.

[Vic Sage]

Vic/KM
Vic/S&C

Vic/CK
Vic/Dog

Vic/RC

KM/S&C

KM/CK

KM/GL

KM/RC

S&C/GL

S&C/Dog

S&C/Brie

CK/Dog

CK/RC

GL/RC

Brie/RC

Vic 5 (3)
KM 5 (4)
S&C 5 (4)
CK 4 (1)
GL 3 (3)
Dog 3 (2)
Brie 2 (1)
RC 5 (4)

Okay, I'm going to look at everyone's possible scumteams and try to narrow it down to reasonable options.

Spoiler: Scumteam analysis

Brie has only two options, and with the weird interactions between her and S&C, I doubt that is our scumteam. RC and Brie is a possibility, however.

I could see Dog scum with either S&C or CK, though I feel you can all figure out that the two of us aren't scum together.

GL with KM, S&C, and RC are all possible, but GL himself is my strongest townread so none of those are a priority.

CK only has one pairing that makes sense to me: duckdoggo. His other theoretical options are me, Kingmaker, and RC. I doubt KM or RC are his partners due to his plan literally being to lynch them for no reason. Clearly I know he's not my partner, but I feel like you all should be able to figure that out from his stances on me.

RC doesn't make sense with CK, but could be literally anyone else at this point. (Anyone else being KM, GL, and Brie. (And me, for everyone else.))

S&C could be me, KM, GL, Dog or Brie. Brie doesn't make sense, and I'm clearly not an option for me.

KM can be S&C, CK, GL, and RC. (As well as me.) CK doesn't make any sense. At all. The rest could, assuming I'm wrong about KM's alignment.

This tells me we can pseudo clear CK by lynching Doggo. If Doggo flips scum we have 1 scum in 3 people and 3 lynches. If he flips town, CK becomes conftown, or near enough to not matter. That means the CK wagon blows.

Similarly, CK's caution against end of day quick wagons doesn't make any sense. We need to be using our lynches. Not lynching lets scum take control of that kill, and there are no PR's to worry about claiming or not claiming.

Honestly, I'm really expecting a DD/CK scumteam at this point. If I'm wrong, CK will be useful given his level of activity. I can't say that DD would be.

[Vic Sage]

Votecount Vic.1

Votecount Unofficial

[3] CommKnight - Kingmaker, GuiltyLion, RadiantCowbells L-2
[2] Duckdoggo - Vic Sage, Scylla and Charybdis L-3
[1] RadiantCowbells - CommKnight, L-4
[1] Scylla and Charybdis - TheBrie L-4
[1] Vic Sage - Duckdoggo L-4
[0] TheBrie
[0] GuiltyLion
[0] Kingmaker

[0] Nolynch

Not voting:

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-07-31 01:52:12)

I noticed that RC asked for pick reasons. There's a vague chance vung is mastin, two hydras, and GL is the only one here who I was sure I'd played with previously pre-replacements.

[Scylla and Charybdis]

There's a reason we're the top 3 wagons.
If others think it's worth us being votes then why can't RC?

We chose my names as it's the only names we knew in the game.
We actually thought I was picking Scum teams but that's because we don't read.

So to me Brie should just be town.
I don't read this as Scum RC and GL/Vic Sage are both posting as town for me.

That leaves 3 people as Scum. Comm, Duck, and King Maker.

King Comm
Comm Duck

I'll do a proper post shortly today. Limited on time.

-Scylla

[CommKnight]

You know I've been arguing from a neutral town point of view with optimal play given that. However, let me show you my personal table.



It's possible I'm wrong about GL, but I doubt it. If I am correct on my only 2 hard TR's (which I am), then I'm left with 7 possible scum teams.

RadiantCowbells and KingMaker lynch would clear 4/7 of those possibilities. It'd also catch the final scum if either of them flip scum because it'd leave only a single person left. (If RC is scum then Vic would be as well, or if KingMaker is scum, Scylla would also be scum). That's assuming both King and RC aren't the scum team together.

Though I suppose the optimal play if I ONLY relied on my tables would be a Vic & Scylla lynch. Because that'd clear 6/7 possibilities leaving only a RC & King possibility alive.

But I got a small town lean on both Scylla & Vic at the moment. I know unless King & RC are both scum, I'm wrong about one of my TR's/TL's. But I'm definitely not wrong about one of KingMaker/RC being scum.

I have yet to see an argument where my pushes make sense to be anti-town. Even if I were scum I'd be doing town a favour by potentially catching scum (and the fact that going into tomorrow it'd be just myself and 1 of two of my possibilities.

But I'll make a statement here and now, if neither RC or King flip scum, I'll help lynch Doggo tomorrow. But I bet they both won't flip town. In fact I can nearly guarantee it. I'd have to be super wrong about one of the other 4 to be that far off.

[CommKnight]

Lynching RC > King > Doggo would only lose us the game if both Scylla & Vic are mafia.

[CommKnight]

The only way you lose in that case if I were mafia is if Vic is also mafia. So... Vic. What do you think now? I'd be throwing all my potential buddies under the bus if I were scum in this game right now.

[CommKnight]

Seriously the lynch order I put forth, you'd have to argue that either Vic, Guilty or Brie are scum along with me (if Vic were scum). You have to argue that to really be against it.