Open 692 - Two-fold Matrix6 (Game Over)

[Aristophanes]

Ah! Very good!

You wont be getting any points then!

[Lang Buddha]

You don't want me to get any points, man?

[Aristophanes]

I would love for you to get points! But you said you have to be voting scum at the end of the day and right now you're not! So...

[Something_Smart]

Ari you're so fun when you try to gamesolve! You should do it more often
How do you feel about WhyMafia and Thor and my recent interaction with them?

[Lang Buddha]

You don't want me to get points

[Aristophanes]

I've been a little low activity (havent read fully) since Thor got here, so I'll honestly have to reread it all. If I get a chance to at work I will, but it may have to wait until tonight.

Ninja'd

You don't want me to get points

[Thor665]

Ari you're so fun when you try to gamesolve! You should do it more often
How do you feel about WhyMafia and Thor and my recent interaction with them?

How do you feel about them?

[BTD6_maker]

Day 3 VC 4

Not_Mafia: WhyMafia, Judge Joseph Dredd, CommKnight
Aristophanes: Lang Buddha, Not_Mafia
WhyMafia: Something_Smart, Thor665
Something_Smart: Vedith

Not Voting: Aristophanes, Crush

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-12 12:30:00)

I am searching for a replacement for Not_Mafia, who would have reached their fourth prod. Not_Mafia may not keep their slot. I am also searching for a replacement for Crush, whose prod timer has expired, although they may keep their slot should they return before a replacement is found.

With 10 players, it's 6 to lynch!

[BTD6_maker]

Umlaut replaces Not_Mafia.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Then why are you getting others to lynch me when we are certain NotMafia is scum?

Because I'd rather lynch WW and let the JK take care of mafia.

i think this is bad logic simply bc we should lynch the ones we are most certain are scum regardless
correct me if im wrong but youre saying youre positive nm is mafia but you would rather go for a less certain slot hoping to lynch a ww
if so then what happens if that less certain slot flips town? we still have the more likely scum alive and we have 2 likely nks still
and what makes you so sure its a jk as opposed to other possibilities? why is jk more likely than doctor save on n1 and both scum factions shooting the same target on n2 for instance?why not mafia did not submit a kill on n1 and shot bp on n2? unless you are claiming jk yourself in which case you do have a guilty and it makes no sense to keep the mafia alive when theyll be jkd anyway so wont be doing that cross kill we might want them alive to precisely do
ok what am i missing?

[Umlaut]

Egopost.

Any claims or other revealed info yet? (I will ignore your answer if you editorialize, just the facts plz)

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

where is everyone? the game pace is too slow im starting to worry we will either mislynch towards the end of the day or have another no lynch.

Why is Not_Mafia a better lynch than WhyMafia?

read my response to ss in my previous post
i personally have doubts about wm flipping scum but lets assume that wm and nm have the same exact chances of being town just for the argument in which case id still rather be wrong about a slot that is not playing than one that is trying to contribute and post game content regularly
if wm is town he probably can show it later or help us catch scum whereas if nm is town he is neither helping nor is he likely to town it up later and that assuming he is town in the first place

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Umlaut replaces Not_Mafia.

finally
now lets hope this one can show us theyre town if they really are
at the very least um hoping for some content that slot now so ill give them a chance to catch up

UNVOTE:

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Egopost.

Any claims or other revealed info yet? (I will ignore your answer if you editorialize, just the facts plz)

none that im aware of but we have a flipped stalker so the setup is partially revealed on the wws half of the game
also ther has been only one nk each night but on n1 it was a mafia who flipped so we know that was the wws kill
on the 2nd night the stalker flipped so we dont know for sure what happened there

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE:

I'm going to assume the Mafia submitted a kill.
Based on flips alone we know no there's no werewolf roleblocker, so that's not what happened with the n1 mafia kill.
The goon flip makes it somewhat more likely there are two goons, making Doctor-Tracker and BP-Tracker the two most likely setups on the mafia side.

I note that yesterday ended with Vedith at L-1 but no one is voting him now. What happened there?

I'll start reading in earnest tonight.

[WhyMafia]

Should we do the 1 shot BP claim then?

[CommKnight]

Oh? And what makes Mafia Goon more likely Umlaut?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

i kinda have this crazy setup spec but i must stress its just one possibility and does not have any advantage of being more likely than not
what if the mafia half of the setup only has a jk (line a)?
and what if the jk acted on raya on n1 when she was supposed to do the kill thus blocking her kill but not protecting her from the wws kill?
and what if that jk acted on someone else (obviously) on n2 but isnt sure if they blocked the kill from origin or protected them? it could also have been the guardian that protected their target or it could be that the elder got shot or it could be that both scums targeted oldwino on n2 so it makes sense the jk doesnt claim bc there is nothing certain or even close to being certain in their results and conclusions?

mind you it could still be a jk + bp or it could be cop + doctor or tracker + doctor still. we do know it cant be cop alone (column 2) bc where did the mafia kill go on n1 unless they did not submit one

yes. too many possibilities and i cant decide which is more likely to try and explain who blocked and who got blocked or who saved and who was saved to narrow down our lynch possibilities to a minimum based on facts rather than speculation and gut alone

[Thor665]

Should we do the 1 shot BP claim then?

[Vedith]

VOTE: WhyMafia

I'll read the game later again as I forgot half my reads.

[CommKnight]

VOTE: WhyMafia I still want to know why Umlaut thinks mafia is likely 2 goons at this point.

[Something_Smart]

correct me if im wrong but youre saying youre positive nm is mafia but you would rather go for a less certain slot hoping to lynch a ww

This is wrong; I don't think Not_Mafia slot is confirmed mafia; whoever said that was misrepping (I think it was WhyMafia).

Also, I want to lynch that slot even less now because I'm pretty confident in my ability to read Umlaut.

[Umlaut]

Haven't really read yet. (The rest of my family just got back from an extended trip out of state so while I don't think I have to go V/LA I am kind of busy.) I don't plan to finish reading tonight but I will give thoughts on whatever I do read.

I still want to know why Umlaut thinks mafia is likely 2 goons at this point.

Assume that if there's a roleblocker, it's 50-50 whether the first mafia flipped will be a roleblocker. (I believe this is the case since role assignment is random and lynches have much more to do with the player than the role.) If not, there's obviously a 0% chance of flipping one. So if the first mafia flipped is a goon, and assuming a prior of 1/2, Bayes' rule gives a posterior of 2/3 that the other is a goon also.

Also, I want to lynch [N_M's] slot even less now because I'm pretty confident in my ability to read Umlaut.

As far as I can remember we've only been in one game together (this setup, in fact) and we both died N1. Where is this confidence coming from?

[Something_Smart]

Well, I nailed you in that game, on the basis that your scumplay reminded me very much of my own. And I think I've read at least one of your other games where I called you as scum pretty quickly.

[Umlaut]

Come to think of it, I'm pretty awful at 'catching up' in the sense of actually just reading through the thread in order and getting anything out of it. So this time I'm going to skip the part where I try and fail to do that and just go straight to my backup plan of picking something specific to focus on.

Day 1 VC 14

Davesaz

: Realeo, Vedith, Crush, Something_Smart, Judge Joseph Dredd, Aristophanes, Kantrip -

LYNCH

Aristophanes:

Not_Mafia

,

oldwino

,

Raya36

, WhyMafia,

Davesaz

Something_Smart: Kasumeat

It's probably safe to assume that not literally every vote for Davesaz was from town, so let's go through the players on that wagon.

Spoiler: Realeo on Davesaz

Maybe I'm going to open up on PMyesterious, Rory, or dave's lynch. Skeptical for the former two, but we would see.

VOTE: Dave

Dave, eh spare me.

Judge's read seems natural. A little bit of misunderstanding. Definitely disagree with dave's read, but prolly because I have meta with dave.

Never gave any kind of read on Dave at all, just a vote.

Eye dee gee eye.

Spoiler: Vedith on Davesaz

I would have included PMysterious' take on Dave here as well, but as far as I can tell he didn't have one.

If I'm at L-1 after I'm done work today (in ~9 hours) I'll hammer.

All the interesting possibilities and I got to be a VT. Woohoo!

So whatever, not a big loss.
Sorry I didn't do better this game.

I don't see this as likely to be town.

Your an opportunist fucksack

VOTE: davesaz

Do it!

Yeah let's lynch your opportunist face then.

If we get this lynch off, Crush... We can be best friends!

Lucky for is no one gives a shot what you say.
Now vote Dave.

Well, that escalated quickly. I really don't like this. I'm not so worried about the overt buddying (it's covert buddying you have to worry about), as I am about the out-of-nowhere hard scumread.

Spoiler: Crush on Davesaz

@Davesaz could you give some reads? I think it's funny that you called out the game for moving too slowly.

10 hours before deadline and I still don't know who to vote for, don't want to lynch Kasu today though.

VOTE: Davesaz

For now, though I think it won't take off. I'll sleep a short night and be back 3 hours ~ish before deadline.

It was bigger and deadline at that time was not extended. Prefer a lynch to none.
I was right on multiple scum in oligarchy game after having almost nothing d1. And you know a gap in activity is not ai for me it indicates I'm busy.

So, who would you want to lynch?

VOTE: Aristo

...

Dave: He has done nothing

If I'm at L-1 after I'm done work today (in ~9 hours) I'll hammer.

All the interesting possibilities and I got to be a VT. Woohoo!

So whatever, not a big loss.
Sorry I didn't do better this game.

I don't see this as likely to be town.

Your an opportunist fucksack

You want to vote davesaz with me?

VOTE: davesaz

We can at least try it.

I'm pretty okay with this progression. Crush has some quibbles with Davesaz, it's close to deadline, and he isn't happy with the current wagons. So he works with Vedith to build a wagon on Davesaz whose lynch he finds acceptable. It ends up hitting a townie, big surprise,
deadline wagons tend to do that, but this is pretty much correct town play on Crush's part.

To be continued with the other four Davesaz voters.