In post 264, Chickadee wrote:I'm a Town Seer, I can see if people are werewolves or not.
So you either a seer or a wolf. If you were any other scummy alignment this claim puts you out there too much to get killed by a wolf (if they exist).
I say we keep her alive and see what kind of NK's we got. Do NK's have flavor attached to them? If wolves are out there they will want her dead, if shes alive and there is wolf NK flavor then kill her.
While I agree with this plan, it also sets me up to be a given mislynch. All wolves have to do is keep me alive one night. But it's still a good plan. If I do live, I can at least find out if someone is a wolf or not. It will either be a guilty or a semi-clear on someone.
@mulch, you realize pretty much anything can be in god game due to the set up, right? How are you so confident that here are no wolves?
2 people discarded werewolves. Take away your claim. That means there are 6 people left. There are 18/146 chances for there to be werewolves in the card. I'm horrible at math but that's a low probability. That means ther are 128/146 chances for there NOT to be a werewolf. Which means the odds of that happeningn 6 times is 45%.
This means that the probability of there even being ONE werewolf is only 55%.
That means that your claim, if fake, has a 45% chance of NEVER being able to be proven wrong, and even if there are 1 or 2 werewolves, means that you would have to somehow pick someone that is a werewolf and claim they are not werewolf, which is super low anyway.
Your claim has an extremely low risk rate if it's fake.
In post 280, Mulch wrote:2 people discarded werewolves. Take away your claim. That means there are 6 people left.
technically
its not impossible for someone to be dealt 2 different werewolf cards
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In post 280, Mulch wrote:Which means the odds of that happeningn 6 times is 45%.
also this is definitely wrong
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Do you disagree with my posts? What do you see town in Sparkles?
Vonflare
my read is based on the strong discard.
scum wouldn't discard a strong town role IMO as they know they would be first-post scumread and I think its more likely that if you were given a scum role and a STRONG town role you pick the strong town, especially in a low-player-count multi-faction greater idea where any scum has a high chance of being essentially an SK without teammates
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Do you disagree with my posts? What do you see town in Sparkles?
Vonflare
my read is based on the strong discard.
scum wouldn't discard a strong town role IMO as they know they would be first-post scumread and I think its more likely that if you were given a scum role and a STRONG town role you pick the strong town, especially in a low-player-count multi-faction greater idea where any scum has a high chance of being essentially an SK without teammates
I know its a WIFOMy reason but its the best i've got, nothing in his posts is really speaking to me
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In post 288, Mulch wrote:WHy is a WIFOm reason enough to completely veto someome lynch?
I don't have the power to veto a lynch
I'm saying I won't vote for them
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As it was stated, if there are werewolves, they now want me dead. I've made myself a target.
Do you not know what I mean by "safe"?
Do you know what you meant by "safe"?
I just don't see my claim as being all that safe. I get that you think it may or may not be provable (and yes, there is a low likelihood of proving my role), but that doesn't make it safe.
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It's safe because it's not proveable and you can't be called out on it at all, because if you are scum you will just say everyone is not a werewolf, and you will be right 99.99% of the time
