Mini 1942 - Switchboard 2 [Game Over]

[mozamis]

yep, i'm still voting you.

[havingfitz]

I don't think the claim idea is a good one, too risky and too advantageous for scum, our Power Roles are valuable for us working information out later in the game.

Also I feel there is a flaw in Fitz's logic:

Town is at a disadvantage in that they have an 8% chance (1 in 12) of voting scum D1.
Town PRs are at a disadvantage in that they have a 9% chance (1 in 11) of targeting scum at night if D1 ends in a mislynch...which only improves to 10% chance of targeting scum with a D1 scum lynch.

These odds are assuming random targets, if we scumhunt effectively these can be reduced a fair bit and not appear so bad. I appreciate that the same principle applies to the odds post-mass claim, however the basis of the idea is that our odds of hitting scum today are crap, when I would contend that.

The "flaw" you point out was left out on purpose. But you are almost correct. Effective scum hunting would INCREASE chances of hitting scum. But the same "effective scumhunting" would have an even GREATER INCREASE on a small unclaimed pool of players.

Aubrey is seeing my point.

[Nosferatu]

This is a really odd middle ground to take. W

again, i dont like this, it looks like "shade".
The guy clearly wasnt quite sure what to do, which seems reasonable in a CONFUSING AS HELL game like this lol

Yeah, Keychain can get a vote

VOTE KEYCHAIN

this is a bad vote

[Aubrey]

The initial knee jerk reaction is to say F no, but after looking over the points it's not as crazy as it seems. Least that was my response initially.

[Radical Rat]

The problem with massclaim is that scum also know WHICH PRs to hit.
That means they'll never target the BP or Hider, they can easily kill the JK knowing it couldn't possibly be protected, and they can keep our investigatives switched off.

Then just claiming PR or not PR removes all probability from scum shots and tells us diddly squat because there's no way to CC

[Raya36]

I'm definitely against a massclaim. I don't think it's worth the risk of putting our PRs out there for scum to target. The PRs are valuable to town and could be the difference of winning or losing. I think a massclaim would be much more worth it later on in the game when the slots are already narrowed down, and then info from the PRs can be shared and we can figure things out. Scum already have more information than us so I don't see claiming and giving them anymore information to be worth it, even if it does make the odds better for us to lynch scum. Wr also have to consider how claiming affects scums odds of nking a PR as well. We have the hider who has a chance of protecting himself, the JK who can protect a PR but also RBs them or can RB potential scum but also protect them, the analyst who would need protecting, BP who will be safe if they are toggled on, the tracker who would need protecting and the watcher who would need protecting. That means there are two PRs that have a chance of protecting themselves, 1 that can protect but also RB the PR they're protecting and three left completely vulnerable. Plus as mentioned while Fitz's pre-claim odds don't look so good for town, his percentages are all based on completely random voting which is not the case.

[Chickadee]

Here's the thing guys. If we all claim, power roles die at night. They're the targets. Because scum is def claiming VT. And they're not gonna be killing in the vanilla pool and narrowing down exposing themselves. So we can move in now. We can consider claiming later in the game. We're not claiming D1.

[Aubrey]

Limit the scum hunting pool by half basically, limit the pool for PR's to target thus likely increase their potential. Sounds like a damn good thing. Unless an argument is brought forward that scum can render most of our PR's mute, I'm fine with the gambit. I'm just reading ppl scared to take a dive.

[Aubrey]

soft claim that is. If more than 6 claim, ask the 7th to hard claim and wait for the counter.

[Realeo]

If we are talking about pr or no pr instead of specific role claim, I think it is good. Scumhunting 3 in7 is better than 3 in 13.

I understand Chickadee concern basically we are subtituting 6 power roles for 6 Innocent Child.

Well yes, we are making our IC vulnurable, but so does the mafia.

[Realeo]

Statistically speaking mafia are not going to claim power role as 1 for 1 favors town.

[Realeo]

Basically we are making.this game from open 10 v 3 into mountanius 4 v 3 with 3 mislynch instead of 1.

[Radical Rat]

Jesus Christ, NO YOU FOOLS

Give me ONE good reason for giving scum a list of PRs to kill. ONE.

[Realeo]

Jesus Christ, NO YOU FOOLS

Give me ONE good reason for giving scum a list of PRs to kill. ONE.

We give them a list of PR so they give us a list of 6 confirmed town.

[Realeo]

If it is another incentive, we know who to flick off and we knoe who to flick on.

[Radical Rat]

And how do you intend to sort out CCs on D1? Just flip a coin and hope for the best?

[Realeo]

CC is kamikaze for scum. Sinple hard claim will be 1 for 1 trade. We can afford to lose a member, it is more costlier for them.

[Raya36]

Jesus Christ, NO YOU FOOLS

Give me ONE good reason for giving scum a list of PRs to kill. ONE.

We give them a list of PR so they give us a list of 6 confirmed town.

But do we really need that list of confirmed town. I just don't think having conftown is worth the risk.

Obviously scum are going to go for the power roles so I just don't see any logic in having them claimed just to lose them soon after.

Sure, the statistics look nice and all but it comes with a cost. They are best case scenario. We need to start looking at the worst case scenario which is our PRs getting picked off one by one.

[Realeo]

So let us work the worst case scenario.

7 VT (4 town/ 3 mafia) vs 6 PR.

If we fucked up once, we lose a VT and a PR.

6 VT vs 5 PR

Fucked up one another, we lose a VT and a PR.

5 VT vs 4 PR

Fucked up another, we lose a VT and a PR.

4 VT vs 3 PR.

Fucked up another, we loses the game.

Whatever happen, the game is over if we make 4 mislynches.

So here's the question. Which one is more likely to make 4 mislynches? Scumhuntin' in 7 people pool or Scumhuntin' in 13 people pool?

[Realeo]

So I just ran some math and I realized that two mafia CC-ing is actually the optimal move for mafia.

If two mafia CC-ing, we are scumhutin' in 9 people pool (4 confirmed town)

It's not exactly that lucrative so I would back down a little bit from proposing this offer, but I still think it's good.

[Raya36]

Okay, so say we did claim and someone counterclaims. That makes things even worse. Say we lynch the true claim, then scum NKs another PR. That's down 2 PRs already. We then lynch scum and they potentially nk another PR. That's 3 PRs down and still 6 VT claims to scumhunt within with 2 being scum.

Edit: Realio just pointed something similar to this out.

[Radical Rat]

No. The worst case scenario is 5 VT vs. 8 PRs

Scum knows who the real PRs are, we don't. We also don't have any way to verify without any action history so far.

I'd prefer NOT to have a 50/50 shot at mislynching a PR

[Raya36]

^^^

Agreed so let's not.

[Aubrey]

Why the hell would you say aloud what the optimal move would be for scum to make when they are unorganized right now to actually do anything strategic. Like that's just disarming a trap.

[Raya36]

Because we were trying to figure what the best play is. In order to decide if we're going to go through with something as big as a mass claim is makes sense to look at all possible situations including that one.

Also what makes you think scum are unorganized right now? They've had just as much time as we've had to talk if I'm not mistaken and they could certainly have organized themselves in that time.