Mini 1942 - Switchboard 2 [Game Over]

[Aubrey]

Lol okay.

[Realeo]

Well great mind think alike.

Chickadee triggered me because it seems inconsistent.

At one point, she is risk averse.

At another point, she scold me for screwing my own plan.

But why would a risk averse person be angry for a scrapped risky plan? A risk averse person should be glad for a scrapped risky plan.

[Chickadee]

Well great mind think alike.

Chickadee triggered me because it seems inconsistent.

At one point, she is risk averse.

At another point, she scold me for screwing my own plan.

But why would a risk averse person be angry for a scrapped risky plan? A risk averse person should be glad for a scrapped risky plan.

What exactly are you referring to here?

[Raya36]

V/LA until tomorrow night.

Will get up some reads then

[I Am Innocent]

Have you played with this player when they've been town and scum?

No, but I spent a whole game hard scum reading her when she was town. We were both town, and both just tunneled on each other.

So if you've never seen her scum game, why are you so confident if she's scum that "I think we'll see it fairly soon."

Moza, Keychain is fairly new. She's finding her bearings. I still have her as null, but I really think we need to give her time to develop to better read her.

My last experience playing with her seems similar to the experience you're having now. If she is town, and she can point herself in the right direction, she'll be great. She really has potential. If she's scum, I think we'll see it fairly soon.

[I Am Innocent]

Would you not agree that speculating about the setup is part of the game, and that furthermore people's stances and their justification for them on issues such as revealing information may contribute towards scumhunting?

If this is the case then why would you want to stifle such discussion?

All we're doing is giving scum more information when we start speculating and outing information. I can see how people would come to these conclusions, but it's not helpful to town.

And no, I would not say that setup speculation is necessarily part of the game. It's a social deduction game. Deduce, socially. Everyone now-a-days just wants to come in, break the set up and rig the game. And thats why towns suck on this site. No one actually wants to play mafia. Everyone just wants to be a quarterback.

No talking about setup spec when trying to guide switches or discuss a mass claim is critical to ensuring that we aren't just doing things willy nilly and possibly screwing up. Yes there is the danger of giving info to scum, but from my experience a team of a few scum outside the newbie forum usually gets it anyway.

On the flip side, I do get nervous when the majority of the conversation is on setup spec, as it allows scum to hide behind discussing it and not forced to fake game play. I'm a few pages behind but at some point an ISO of each player over the first X pages to see who is doing this may give some clues to who is scum.

And I would argue that I'm nit stifling discussion. I'm trying to get y'all to actually look at player interactions and what people are saying.

I have not seen you point out any player interactions to this point. What have I missed?

[I Am Innocent]

I don't think the claim idea is a good one, too risky and too advantageous for scum, our Power Roles are valuable for us working information out later in the game.

Also I feel there is a flaw in Fitz's logic:

Town is at a disadvantage in that they have an 8% chance (1 in 12) of voting scum D1.
Town PRs are at a disadvantage in that they have a 9% chance (1 in 11) of targeting scum at night if D1 ends in a mislynch...which only improves to 10% chance of targeting scum with a D1 scum lynch.

These odds are assuming random targets, if we scumhunt effectively these can be reduced a fair bit and not appear so bad. I appreciate that the same principle applies to the odds post-mass claim, however the basis of the idea is that our odds of hitting scum today are crap, when I would contend that.

Actually involves flawed math too Town has a 25% chance of voting scum D1 (3 scum in pool of 12 other players).

I still think the math works out to 3 outta 7 if we ensure the lynchee gets a chance to claim, so I disagree the mass claim is the best idea D1.

[I Am Innocent]

votes off chick please shes town.

Reasons please.

[mozamis]

Reasons please.

already gave them page 1 (?) when i formed my townbloc when people started discussing "the plan".

so what r your reads IAI?

[Keychain]

@Mod: V/LA until Monday.

@Key: I may be missing something, but I really don't see how that reaction makes sense if scum didn't have daytalk, it's highly unlikely each member of the team would have independently came up with the same mathematical conclusion that Realeo did.

It seems my reasoning is different to Rat's, though we arrived at the same conclusion.

We don't know how organised scum is or how skilled they are or whether they're telepathic. To me it's irrelevant. If there's a possible way scum could mess with the strategy, we need to consider the worst case scenario of them doing it and veto the plan if it gives them a significant edge.

Hiding a potential opportunity for scum to get an advantage, and so letting a flawed strategy go ahead, is a

terrible

idea.

You've clearly played long enough to know someone posting once or twice a day is considered an active player vs a typical player who will let 24 to 48 hrs pass by easy and often.

I'd like to know why a player who posts once a day is active, but a player who frequently lets 24 hours pass in between posts is not

[Aubrey]

You've clearly played long enough to know someone posting once or twice a day is considered an active player vs a typical player who will let 24 to 48 hrs pass by easy and often.

I'd like to know why a player who posts once a day is active, but a player who frequently lets 24 hours pass in between posts is not

Like, what even is the point of this when the issue has already been addressed? You've basically been piggy back riding off of Rat's issues with me during this whole push. Your question doesn't even consider how much content and value is being generated between these two people, but if they are generating similar amounts of content, who between these two people is more active? Mathematically it's the person who posts everyday, and isn't attempting to lurk.

Let me give you some advice...if someone isn't posting a lot of content (nor really making any hard stances) and letting a day or days slide by w/o word, chances are that person is a lurking mafia member. Unless you want to argue that this applies to me, I don't get what you're trying to say here.

[Formerfish]

So why do you think that scum would potentially propose a priority massclaim?

It sounds like you think the strategy would give scum an advantage in some way, or at least wouldn't disadvantage them - in which case, I'd have expected you to point that out, as a reason why we shouldn't be claiming.

Because thats not something that they would necessarily know? And it might help them figure out what the priorities actually mean? Its like role fishing, but less invasive.

[Formerfish]

I'm not going to claim my priority just yet. I'd rather hash it out first.
The way mozamis jumped to claim before Rat had explained in full was suspicious

I'm not going to claim my priority just yet. I'd rather hash it out first. The way mozamis jumped to claim before Rat had explained in full was suspicious

"jumped" is a scummy, misreppy way of putting it. I in fact i had qualms, as is quite obvious if you look back over it.

fos keychain

instinctively, i'm against that. mass claims give scum even more info.

tho mayb ein this case it doesnt matter?

i'm priority 4

You went from acknowledging it in post 20, questioning the banality of your existence in post 21, and then outed your priority in 22. Where did you have doubts and why not let others talk about it?

[Formerfish]

I'm not saying realeo is scum, just that it's not something to town read him for.

1) IT IS. It's not blending in. And it's so gamesolvy, he is putting ideas outthere, interested in the game. He's a helluva scum player if he is scum, but not many people are.
2) And man, if he wasnt town before, his whole convo with chickadee screamed town.

LOL if you think that all scum just blend in. There is a huge movement of the belief of people being to scummy to be scum. So what happens? The meta moves in the other direction and we just start lynching people who are loud and trying to seem like they are doing shit. I dont see how anyone can town read him solely for that.

[Formerfish]

Moza, Keychain is fairly new. She's finding her bearings. I still have her as null, but I really think we need to give her time to develop to better read her.

My last experience playing with her seems similar to the experience you're having now. If she is town, and she can point herself in the right direction, she'll be great. She really has potential. If she's scum, I think we'll see it fairly soon.

This is townChick through and through.

[mozamis]

u scum with IAI?

[Aubrey]

Frankly Fitz and Rat are my two strongest town leans right now. Rat right out the gate said something pretty foolish that I find hard to believe coming out of a scums finger tips. My belief is even stronger now knowing that they have day talk. Fitz (meta) tends to just poke things with a stick and ask pointless questions in order to allude the impression of "

Look at me, I'm town doing town things.

" Him going VLA and doing walls of content catchup is his usual though I believe. Regardless, the fact that nobody but myself supported his idea fully makes me think that it came from a town perspective more than likely. If this was a scum tactic to F the town over, more than just myself would have been in support mode to his notion I would think. I don't count Realeo into the equation since he was onboard and quickly backtracked out of it rather quickly.

I need to shuffle through the game again. I've bee more concerned with the spec crap than actually looking at what people are doing and defending myself.

@IAI: do you read and just comment as you go, or do you read everything then comment?

[mozamis]

LOL if you think that all scum just blend in

Not all scum try and blend in. Most do though. Particularly at the beginning of the game. I just cant see the percentages of Rat being scum and opening with that gambit (note, we are still talking about him, which is not what scum want).
Of course good scum players-like IAI-will try some extreme gambits (i was in agme with himonce where i think he fake claimed doc or something and town followed him over the cliff). But:
1) Most players arent that good, so there's just the PROBABILITY that it's unlikely that the guy is scum.
2)EVen if he is good scum, iit's still unlikely that you OPEN the game with a gambit. May as well just shine a massive spotlight on your self.

As to my train of thought, i think it's pretty transparent. I changed my mind WOOOOOOOOOO.

[mozamis]

So to tidy it all up a bit, my reads:

(not in order, very provisional)

Moz, Chick, Radical, rayo, Realo,
Scum in: Former, Nos, Allo, Mollig,
Neutral: IAI,Fitz,Aubrey,Keychain

updated:
Town: Moz, Chick, Radical, Rayo, Realo, Aubrey.
Scum most likely in: IAI, Former, Allo, Nos, Moolig.
Neutral: Fitz, Keychain.

[Nosferatu]

I'mma just wait til page 20 to catch up proper

[Chickadee]

Have you played with this player when they've been town and scum?

No, but I spent a whole game hard scum reading her when she was town. We were both town, and both just tunneled on each other.

So if you've never seen her scum game, why are you so confident if she's scum that "I think we'll see it fairly soon."

Moza, Keychain is fairly new. She's finding her bearings. I still have her as null, but I really think we need to give her time to develop to better read her.

My last experience playing with her seems similar to the experience you're having now. If she is town, and she can point herself in the right direction, she'll be great. She really has potential. If she's scum, I think we'll see it fairly soon.

Lets call it gut. And the fact that she's new.

Would you not agree that speculating about the setup is part of the game, and that furthermore people's stances and their justification for them on issues such as revealing information may contribute towards scumhunting?

If this is the case then why would you want to stifle such discussion?

All we're doing is giving scum more information when we start speculating and outing information. I can see how people would come to these conclusions, but it's not helpful to town.

And no, I would not say that setup speculation is necessarily part of the game. It's a social deduction game. Deduce, socially. Everyone now-a-days just wants to come in, break the set up and rig the game. And thats why towns suck on this site. No one actually wants to play mafia. Everyone just wants to be a quarterback.

No talking about setup spec when trying to guide switches or discuss a mass claim is critical to ensuring that we aren't just doing things willy nilly and possibly screwing up. Yes there is the danger of giving info to scum, but from my experience a team of a few scum outside the newbie forum usually gets it anyway.

On the flip side, I do get nervous when the majority of the conversation is on setup spec, as it allows scum to hide behind discussing it and not forced to fake game play. I'm a few pages behind but at some point an ISO of each player over the first X pages to see who is doing this may give some clues to who is scum.

And I would argue that I'm nit stifling discussion. I'm trying to get y'all to actually look at player interactions and what people are saying.

I have not seen you point out any player interactions to this point. What have I missed?

Oh, so monkey see monkey do? I suppose telling telling y'all to move on isn't enough.

And setup spec is not helpful when we have 9 pages of it and nothing else.

I'mma just wait til page 20 to catch up proper

Nos

[Aubrey]

Can't tell if Nosferatu is just townie who doesn't care to put effort forward, or scum trying to slide through the beginning of the game.

[Chickadee]

@Innocent I would like your reads please.

[mozamis]

Can't tell if Nosferatu is just townie who doesn't care to put effort forward, or scum trying to slide through the beginning of the game.

my meta on NOs is that i think he tries a bit more as town.
not a lot though, which is why i havent auto voted him.

[Realeo]

Thia one Chick

So I just ran some math and I realized that two mafia CC-ing is actually the optimal move for mafia.

If two mafia CC-ing, we are scumhutin' in 9 people pool (4 confirmed town)

It's not exactly that lucrative so I would back down a little bit from proposing this offer, but I still think it's good.

Thank you.

Thank you for giving scum an idea.

Rule 1, don't help scum. Let them figure out their own best strategy.