Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

[Alisae]

VOTE COUNT 2 . 26 aphix ---------- 3 ( DoctorPepper, BlackVoid, NotTheRealPaul ) L- 2 NotTheRealPaul - 2 ( Skitter30, aphix ) L- 3 JaeReed -------- 1 ( osuka ) L- 4 Madtatters ----- 1 ( JaeReed ) L- 4 Not Voting ----- 1 ( Madtatters ) With 8 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-31 19:41:35)

FOS COUNT 2 . 26 NotTheRealPaul - 1 ( Skitter30 ) Not FoS'ing ---- 7 ( JaeReed, Madtatters, osuka, aphix, BlackVoid ) With 8 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-31 19:41:35)

[osuka]

i felt really compelled to steal it

[skitter30]

Lol, like the one thing I'm confident about this game is that he's scum. Almost everyone else is sketchy to me atm.

@Paul: Please don't replace out. Sorry I'm being so aggressive . . . I have a tendency to do that when I think I found something, and I was getting frustrated because I couldn't really get anyone to talk to me and the game kinda stalled.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, I was following the game but only skimming and I'm going to catch up page by page now. This won't be pretty but since I only have 48 hours, I'm just going to post my thoughts as I read and maybe do a condensed version after that.

@Skitter, I'll talk to you about why I think Paul is town once I finish my catchup and unlike last time, I should be done in a few hours.

UNVOTE: until I decide where I want my vote.

[osuka]

@mod: vla until wednesday 1200 utc-4

[Alisae]

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[BlackVoid]

I'm fully caught up which is cool but now I have to leave for work. While I don't have many strong reads, I have a bunch of thoughts about the game which I'm going to start laying out after I return in about ~7 hours.

also bv hi! can u plz lynch aphix with me? skitters is being a pain

In the meantime, feel free to sell me on it. The biggest thing I remember off of memory is that you thought his switch to voting MWAP was scummy when he had previously called MWAP town and didn't respond to your question. What did you think of his response when he finally gave it?

[Madtatters]

My list, after seven years; from most likely scum to most likely town

Aphix
JaeReed, Skitter30
DoctorPepper
BlackVoid
Osuka
NotTheRealPaul

Now let me explain; Yukko was a guttown from the start. It wasn't until Skitter30 started in that my perspective on the character changed drastically. I have many hypothesis on those at the top of my list.

V1 - Aphix + Skitter30. This partnership is very unlikely because most scum are smarter than this. Why would both scum advocate for the lynching of someome intensely when nobody else has jumped on the wagon? Either they're bad scum or not partners. I'll got with the latter.

V2- Aphix + JaeReed w/the help of Skitter30. This would be a very good strategy, ngl. From what I've observed, JaeReed would be able to slip past everyone without revealing that they're scum. Among other things, like I've mentioned before, I feel like if JaeReed is scum, town is screwed. So if Aphix worked with JaeReed, it would be the perfect pairing. Aphix hasn't done that well of a job convincing me that they're town. So the top scum read paired with the low lying player. Genius. Now Skitter30 fits into this accidentally. By that I mean that they aren't aware that Aphix and JaeReed are scum, and is inadvertently being used for the scum's personal gain, unaware of the ulterior motive. If that's the case, Aphix is a much better player than I thought. Using town against town. Nice one. This actually what I believe is going on.

V3: Everything above is wrong and my reads from D1 are the right ones. Osuka and Paul are scum partners. That would actually be comical, after I advocate for them, trying to convince everyone that they're not scum, they flip scum. But honestly, the Aphix/JaeReed +Skitter30 scenario makes the most sense.

Therefore, as per my original vote at the beginning of today:

VOTE: Aphix

I'll come back to JaeReed & Skitter30 D3, if nobody switches to them first haha.

Any questions?

[JaeReed]

I agree with Osuka here. MWAP, you've barely posted at all, and the posting you've done is the past 48 hr is being evident of gamethrowing. We'd rather you just stop playing and have the mods replace you with someone who does or actually play. I didn't really have a reason to vote.

Thanks for elaborating, Osuka. I with you on this one.

VOTE: ManWithAPlan

Guys
This is not the vote of
Someone
Who didn't know MWAP was town.

[skitter30]

I can't be scum here. You believe that Yukko was town - what motivation would he have about lying about his role?

I'm willing to re-evaluate on Paul (again), so I'm waiting for what BV has to say. I think Aphix is town though. I'm willing to vote Jae again.

[Madtatters]

I can't be scum here. You believe that Yukko was town - what motivation would he have about lying about his role?

I'm willing to re-evaluate on Paul (again), so I'm waiting for what BV has to say. I think Aphix is town though. I'm willing to vote Jae again.

That's why Scenario 2 seems more likely. I honestly believe you as town, but not town I want around as long as JaeReed and Aphix are scum

[skitter30]

K, but you listed a possibility where you're considering me as scum with Aphix? Like, I wasn't even the person who claimed - you townread Yukko and he claimed, which means you should trust it. I don't get why you think scum!me is a possibility to you here.

And are you really trying to say that you're willing to lynch me?

I'll come back to JaeReed & Skitter30 D3, if nobody switches to them first haha.

I honestly believe you as town, but not town I want around as long as JaeReed and Aphix are scum

Also, I don't see Aphix/Jae being a team like at all here. Why does Jae being a low-lying player make them a good partner for Aphix? Why does scum!Aphix repeatedly call his partner out on that? Like, the way you wrote the second option, it sounds almost like you think Aphix *chose* Jae as a partner because it would balance out his playstyle?

By that I mean that they aren't aware that Aphix and JaeReed are scum,

And this is just bizarre, because of course I don't

know

who scum is. I'm very aware of the possibility that either of them might be, and I've even considered the fact that I may have been pocketed by Aphix. But his frustration at the lynch and the fact that *his lynch stalled and that we won't even gain much useful info from it* makes me think he's town. Jae could be scum though.

[aphix]

I swear to god with that post tatters could be scum if there was daytalk .... As that's just the sort of post that could continue fracturing town .... Jesus christ.

I'm still waiting on BlackVoid, really hoping to actually have play from the slot.

[skitter30]

I can't tell if that post was written by newbtown or newbscum tbh.

[DoctorPepper]

Back from Taiwan but groggy as fuck and I cannot comprehend anything rn. Will need to re read.

Tatters feels like he is lynchbait. This isn't newbscum. Newbscum is too cautious to a fault. This is a reckless post that feels new town.
Besides it's not that hard to not town read Skitter right now. Honestly, if you weren't conf town, I'd push for you

[BlackVoid]

I'll post comments/questions to everyone to help me solidify my reads. Starting with Aphix since he's a major point of discussion.

Aphix:

Pretty sure he is town. First off, there's the suspicion of JaeReed in his opening post 234. I find it town because I don't think replacing into the game by pushing the widely townread IC makes sense as a scum strategy. I also agree with 350. I liked JaeReed's initial posts but thought he was coasting later on and pretty much reached the same conclusion Aphix did.

Then there's his general reaction to the heat on him. Most of D2, Aphix was under a lot of pressure but he's still pushing against one of only two people townreading him (JaeReed), and townreading someone who seems very sure that he's scum (Osuka). I think Aphix's reads are coming from a genuine place as opposed to reads that would be convenient for scum to have. For example, he could have easily made an ally in JaeReed but he doesn't, and seems more worried about potential towncred JaeReed might get on his townflip for "whiteknighting." I felt his general frustration with everyone for just calling him scum and checking out is something I can relate to from a town viewpoint but would be a bold move as scum. I think scum in his position would be more interested in seeing who they can persuade and bring to their side rather than just lash out at everyone. I see town doing the latter because people not being active means he can't get reliable reads on them so that's an additional layer of frustration that scum wouldn't have even if they got universally scumread.

A couple of questions though: Can you also elaborate on why Madtatters was a scumread at the point you replaced in? Specifically, what do you mean by 214 not being the usual distrust you see from a town player. What were you expecting from town there?

What's the point of 385? By announcing that you're going to scumread whoever hammers early, you are basically warning scum away from doing it. If you hadn't said anything and got hammered early, that would be a lot more useful to catch scum off-guard, wouldn't it?

[NotTheRealPaul]

V/LA until Friday

Skitters why do u think a wagon stalling is a sign if town? Do u think both scum were on aphix wagon? If so who (other than me bcuz i assume u still sr me)

[NotTheRealPaul]

Also madtatters is the safe lynch but idk. Everyone already said it but that last post is like screaming newb but idk town or scum. Im leaning town because I feel like newbscum would be more careful than to have the conftown as an sr. Either way that really shouldnt go to mylo.

@bv my aphix case is mostly a gut thing. Like idk at this point because so many have been inactive.

[NotTheRealPaul]

fuck thats kinda vague. Like my reads are fucked up bcuz ppl arent posting much. Every one of tatters posts seems to just scream newb. Aphix is gut!scum for me althoigh it may be his attitude/how he lashes out. Jae is gut!scum too and like the rest is null bcuz not much activity.

faaaak. this game.

[aphix]

214 Looks like an attempt to distance from a wagon that didn't look right to me. In retrospect I'm pretty sure it's how tatters composes their sentences that looks odd. Like, it's not unusual to be weary of a wagon specially one you don't understand. It looked strange there.

In regards to seeing who hammers ... Wasn't nearly so much as scaring off anyone that hammers. That's a bunch of wifom in terms of hammering. I really wanted people not to unvote for a chance for someone to hammer. I think that my lynch at that time would have been a good potential to actually have something happen in this game.

You were going to explain to us how Paul is conftown though?

[skitter30]

Skitters why do u think a wagon stalling is a sign if town? Do u think both scum were on aphix wagon? If so who (other than me bcuz i assume u still sr me)

I'm assuming the first question is a response to the following:

But his frustration at the lynch and

at

the fact that *his lynch stalled and that we won't even gain much useful info from it* makes me think he's town.

I realized after I hit submit that I missed a crucial word here, added in bold above. I'll rephrase: I'm townreading him for his frustration at the lynch and for his frustration at the fact that his lynch stalled so we won't even gain much useful info from it. The townread doesn't really have much to do with the fact that the wagon stalled.

Since literally everyone besides for me and him either pushed Aphix or wagoned him, scum had to be involved involved in the Aphix push/wagon, which is why I wouldn't touch it. I still don't see why scum!Aphhix's partner would be bussing him there. Since I'm townreading him, both scum had to have been involved. I don't know who the other one is atm.

[BlackVoid]

Sorry for the delay guys. I had to unexpected go to work this morning to fill in for someone and then I was so tired I went to sleep. But I have thoughts on the game and I'm ready to spend the next few hours churning out content. I'll start with JaeReed since he's my biggest scumread at the moment and then explain my Paul read and if I have time, go over the remaining players.

[BlackVoid]

JaeReed:

I liked most of JaeReed's initial questions to everyone and it looked like he was trying to drive the game forward. I didn't like the MWAP push in 166, it being mostly based on active lurking is weird considering JaeReed's earlier stance that activity is not alignment indicative. I did notice the distinction that MWAP apparently seemed caught up and wasn't posting content but I still don't like the general direction of JaeReed's scumreads being people that were mostly low activity (200) while townblocking with active posters (specifically I don't understand the Osuka townread).

My biggest problem though is something similar to what Aphix touched on earlier. I don't think JaeReed is invested in his reads or is attempting to derail lynches on his townreads or direct them towards his scumreads. 287 towards the end of the day is an example of that. There was a lot of momentum for the MWAP lynch at that point and JaeReed seemed to be townreading him. But there's no attempt to try and get people to unvote and look at DoctorPepper more, or appealing to anyone in his townblock to look at DoctorPepper. The way he just stated that he was happy with his DoctorPepper vote feels more like he was expecting the MWAP lynch to go through, for MWAP to flip town, and for him to have a target to push the following day. It didn't seem like he expected his vote on DoctorPepper to do anything nor did it look like he cared.

You said in 195 that Osuka seemed different to how he played in a scumgame of his you were reading. Can you explain what this difference is? I don't understand the basis behind your Osuka townread in the first place. Can you talk about what you mean when you say that he "isn't trying to direct you in any particular way?"

I don't understand why Paul is a scumread based on the no kill. Shooting the BP is the optimal move for scum because it doesn't change the number of mislynches they need to win, and by taking away the bulletproof they have the freedom to get rid of a conf-town later on if they feel the need to. Shooting elsewhere would be a risk since scum might be shooting a potential mislynch and get POE'd more easily if the confirmed town makes it too far into the game. So, I'd expect

anyone

to take that shot. I also think it's weird that you were townreading Paul all along until skitter replaced in and started attacking him, and then there's a "vote: Paul, w/e" tone of resignation and then a weird justification for the vote later. Can you go over how your Paul read developed and why the resigned tone?

Two other problems with your nightkill logic: Firstly, Osuka was widely townread as well so it could just as well apply to him as Paul. Secondly, there are two scum so their nightkill would be determined by what benefits both of them so just picking out Paul on the basis of "widely townread player making a no-info kill" seems weird at this point.

[JaeReed]

I didn't like the MWAP push in 166, it being mostly based on active lurking is weird considering JaeReed's earlier stance that activity is not alignment indicative.

Active lurking is very very very different from just not being around.

[JaeReed]

287 towards the end of the day is an example of that. There was a lot of momentum for the MWAP lynch at that point and JaeReed seemed to be townreading him.

Was still thinking through MWAP's alignment and didn't like the bs policy lynch thing nor the lazy votes.