Open 692 - Two-fold Matrix6 (Game Over)

[Something_Smart]

@S_S - Yeah, forcing Prisoner's Dilema - the optimal win shot for town. Why didn't I think of advocating a plan to get us into that situation?

My argument works in favor of a No Lynch. It means that we can't lose tonight even if both shots hit town.

So please cut the sarcasm because it doesn't sound like you want to work with me.

[Thor665]

I already advocated no lynch today because it's the best town can hope for barring assured scum lynch.
You're currently sheeping my plan, which is both the worst case scenario of my plan yesterday and the best case scenario for yours from yesterday.
So, yeah, I'll admit I'm not sheeping your plans.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

alright. so it looks like both ss & umlaut are in favor of no lynch while vedith has no idea. this tells me no case could be presented to change my mind, but ill still not vote yet in case you want to discuss some more. consider my vote is on no lynch already though.

[Umlaut]

Vedith copping to having no idea is the most suspicious thing about him, really.

[BTD6_maker]

Day 5 VC 2

No Lynch: Thor665

Not Voting: Something_Smart, Umlaut, Vedith, Judge Joseph Dredd

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-10 15:30:00)

With 5 players, it's 3 to lynch!

[Thor665]

Vedith copping to having no idea is the most suspicious thing about him, really.

I tend to agree, he's intentionally trying to avoid providing info.
The boggle I have is that with your claim now basically going uncountered is that I'm wrong about S_S or JJD, which pleases me not at all.

So the scum in JJD S_S should shoot Vedith.
Vedith scum...well, if you're town you're just screwed sideways. If you're scum you need to juggle the idea of me, S_S, and JJD as scum. I vaguely would guess S_S just because his plans and conclusions are proveably bad but he cites unshown logic to support them, but I'll admit that's potentially a playstyle thought on my part and maybe JJD is just hard playing me. But I would note that yesterday, if JJD is playing me, he's playing me amazingly well as he literally went against his wincon regardless of which scum type he would theory be.

[Thor665]

I would also like to point out to both remaining scum, that literally unless you shoot the other scum player you're putting yourself into a worse position statistically.
So, y'know, an Umlaut shot is literally the dumbest thing you can do.
So don't.

[Something_Smart]

Vedith copping to having no idea is the most suspicious thing about him, really.

That and his vote on me.

By the way I'm not 100% for No Lynch but I'm always a fan of letting scum do the work in multiball endgames.

[Thor665]

If you're not 100% on No Lynch are you 100% on someone being scum?

[Thor665]

I ask because as far as I can see it should be a switch. Either you're 100% on someone as scum, or 100% on No Lynch - because neither is a good idea if the other is a good idea to you.

[Something_Smart]

How could I ever be 100% on someone as scum?

And I disagree that they both can't be good ideas; I think both are likely to lead to a win.

[Thor665]

A lynch today gives us either lylo tomorrow, a kingmaker, or assured town loss.
A no lynch today gives us lylo with an assured town or kingmaker with an assured town tomorrow with no possibility of assured town loss.

So, literally, the only way a lynch today is good is if we lynch scum - any other result is, at best, less good than a no lynch, or far worse.
Therefore the only way a lynch is a good idea is if you have 100% certainty on scum - which you say you don't have.
So how is this a good idea exactly?

[Thor665]

You keep talking like you understand this setup, but you keep saying things I know are factually untrue.
Why is this?

[Thor665]

Are you sweating to have the option to kill Umlaut?

[Umlaut]

Going by play alone I'd sooner believe Vedith is scum than Thor, actually. Definitely at least one of them though, or else I fail at Mafia.

If I had to choose between Jjd and S_S I'd say S_S is the more likely scum.

[Something_Smart]

Because lynching today is better if we lynch scum. That doesn't mean I have to be 100% confident, it means I need to be confident enough to risk it.

And Umlaut, does that apply whether the scum in question is mafia or werewolf? Because I agree that Judge werewolf is incredibly unlikely but I personally think that my interactions would preclude me from being mafia more than his would.

[Thor665]

Because lynching today is better if we lynch scum. That doesn't mean I have to be 100% confident, it means I need to be confident enough to risk it.

[Something_Smart]

Thor it's called risk management. You can't not do anything for fear of being wrong. If I were 99% sure someone was scum I'd gladly vote them, but I'm not one for false bravado and many of my reads so far have been wrong so I don't think I am confident enough to lynch. But the point stands that I COULD be.

(Also half the reason I've engaged you so much this game is that I love arguing semantics A lot of it doesn't have much bearing so if you want me to stop I can try to look past your semantics and respond to your meaning as much as I can. Though it's probably moot as you're unlikely to live to tomorrow.)

[Thor665]

I don't think I am confident enough to lynch. But the point stands that I COULD be.

[Something_Smart]

Basically that sums up to, don't tell me what to think.

[Thor665]

And also backs up my stance that you're advocating bad plans, and then getting dodgy in your language when called on it/

[Something_Smart]

???

I'm advocating the same thing you are

[Thor665]

Well, you're not voting no lynch, you're not advancing cases to help scum shoot accurately, and you're mincing words on the bad plan of lynching someone today.
So, no, I don't think you are.

[Thor665]

Either that or you REALLY misunderstand what I'm advocating.

[Something_Smart]

Cases?

Thor is WW by PoE and because he's been generally antagonistic and accusatory (and he played along to the "confirmed mafia" thing)
Vedith is mafia by PoE and because he's done nothing of value recently

There are my cases