Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

[DoctorPepper]

One more thing, you are essentially voting Madtatters because you don't want him in lylo. How is that so different than lynching MWAP because he was a destructive to the game and him being alive would be more detrimental to town than just lynching him? Both are essentially "get rid of a distraction moving forward" but you were calling BS on the MWAP lynch while advocating for the Madtatters lynch.

Is it normal for you to not have strong scumreads?

Madtatters isn't a "get rid of a distraction moving forward" vote.
It's a "this could be mafia but more importantly is very likely to vote confirmed town in lylo" vote.
I consider those two different.

Eh, it depends on the game.

4 player mylo tomorrow assuming we lynch wrong. Even if they are voting for conf town, who could possibly die tonight, then this whole assumption goes to shit.

[BlackVoid]

Have you in the past pushed policy lynches for any reason?

I'd also like comments on my townread on Aphix. Is Aphix still your only scumread?

[Alisae]

VOTE COUNT 2 . 28 aphix ---------- 3 ( DoctorPepper, NotTheRealPaul, Madtatters ) L- 2 NotTheRealPaul - 2 ( Skitter30, aphix ) L- 3 JaeReed -------- 1 ( osuka ) L- 4 Madtatters ----- 1 ( JaeReed ) L- 4 Not Voting ----- 1 ( BlackVoid ) With 8 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-31 19:41:35)

FOS COUNT 2 . 28 NotTheRealPaul - 1 ( Skitter30 ) Not FoS'ing ---- 7 ( JaeReed, Madtatters, osuka, aphix, BlackVoid ) With 8 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-31 19:41:35)

[JaeReed]

One more thing, you are essentially voting Madtatters because you don't want him in lylo. How is that so different than lynching MWAP because he was a destructive to the game and him being alive would be more detrimental to town than just lynching him? Both are essentially "get rid of a distraction moving forward" but you were calling BS on the MWAP lynch while advocating for the Madtatters lynch.

Is it normal for you to not have strong scumreads?

Madtatters isn't a "get rid of a distraction moving forward" vote.
It's a "this could be mafia but more importantly is very likely to vote confirmed town in lylo" vote.
I consider those two different.

Eh, it depends on the game.

4 player mylo tomorrow assuming we lynch wrong. Even if they are voting for conf town, who could possibly die tonight, then this whole assumption goes to shit.

Not at all.
There's two prs.
And mylo requires all alive town to vote scum to lynch scum. (So you'd no lynch btw, without talking, but assuming we don't...)
If he's town voteparking on town then we've lost because we can't lynch scum without scum.

Now if we do no lynch into lylo then I still think tatters is more likely to vote town there than not.

[JaeReed]

But making the argument about it being mylo actually makes it worse.

[BlackVoid]

Can you explain your MadTatters read, JaeReed?

[skitter30]

@BV:

1. Fair enough. I think it was part of the tone thing that was bothering me, which I didn't figure out/wasn't able to articulate until much later. Like, it pinged me immediately, but I didn't figure out it the 'already' until I went back a week later to try to dissect it. It just seemed off.

2.Yeah, that's basically it. He isn't acting the way I'd expect town!Paul to act around me. I'm conf!town. I'm behaving *exactly* the way he said he expects me to as town, based on how he correctly townread me in 1797. Like, he nailed the difference between my towngame and scumgame there in a way that I was never able to articulate. He even got you to townread me for a bit before we got into that thing. And yet . . . I'd be scumread here for reasons that have nothing to do with that. It doesn't feel right.

3. The reads he said were bad were specifically the Paul scumread and the Jae nullread. I don't think he ever actually said he had a problem with the Aphix townread. In fact, when I pushed him on his scumlean, he eventually retracted it and stopped pushing it for a while because he claimed he didn't understand the context of Aphix's vote (which he had asked for). He said he may have been wrong and he'd need to reread. (I can find the posts if you need me too). He then moved onto Jae, said he'd sheep me into lynching himself (?) and then moved back to Aphix as gutscum. His progression on Aphix just seems weird and flipfloppy and unnatural.

4-5. Agree basically. I don't have much to say here.

6. Yeah. I don't know what the right words are. Like, overly confident or overly aggressive in a way that doesn't seem natural. Something like that? Like, he keeps on doing it, but then apologizing for being a dick to me as he does it. (@Paul, you're fine and I don't think you need to apologize; nothing you've said bothers me).

Aphix - town. He seems incredibly frustrated at the gamestate, and at the fact that his lynch won't even give town that much info. Like he seemed fine with getting lynched so long as it helped town. He also is like actually willing to engage with people, and seems to respond to what other people are saying, which is a plus in this game where people have been kinda bad about following up with their thoughts. I also don't think he can be scum for gamestate reasons; that push on him was based on nothing and the fact that *everyone* went along really bothers me.

Osuka - it's mainly for the reaction at MWAP's throw. He seemed genuinely frustrated at the way she behaved, in a way that I don't think scum would be behaving when they're handed a free mislynch. Like, I could see scum being that frustrated if it was their partner. I don't see scum knowing that this is a townflip reacting that way. That's pretty much why I think he's town. Besides for that, he'd be null or maybe even null-scum

You - Ciara was null-scum because she wasn't really paying much attention, and wasn't really doing anything. Like I felt like she may have been lurking pas tthe me/Aphix/Paul thing. She also misrepresented some things, but I also felt like she wasn't actually reading. I feel *much* better about you. I'm not 100% sold yet that you're town, but this seems very similar to town!you from 1797. Don't want to lynch you today. If Jae flipped town I would look at you more.

Tatters - lean town. Definitely newb. A few of her (early) posts I just don't see coming from newbscum though, so townlean.

DP - I don't know how to read him, and he's been lurking a bit and hasn't really been responding to me, so it's hard to read someone who doesn't interact with you. null-scum basically because I can't really get anything out of him.

Jae - Started off the day as just null. Literally nothing they did day1 seemed AI to me, despite posting a fair amount. I didn't get the townreads here. As more time went on and there was just *nothing* that I could read from them despite them producing content, I started to lean scum. Like they felt like they were deliberately trying not to say anything too controversial or weighty. I feel like their reads are kinda arbitrary. They wouldn't give me an opinion on Paul for most of the day despite townleaning him day1. Eventually their scumlean on Paul came because of the nightkill only, which was kinda reachy, but wouldn't really respond or interact with anything else I said about Paul. Then out of nowhere they kinda haphazardly voted Paul. Then unvoted him (you said you don't see them as a team . . . i could see their votes/unvotes on each other as distancing attempts). Then starts a non-viable vanity wagon just before deadline (before it got extended) and hasn't even tried to push it? Like, it feels like they're trying to avoid giving a stance on the Paul/Aphix thing.

Paul - discussed.

I feel like they could be a team for *exactly* the reaosn you discussed - they decided to try to lead the town by townreading each other. Their interactions are just plain weird tbh. Neither of them can really explain their reads on the other. Random votes on each other. Like, it's just weird.

[JaeReed]

I don't have one beyond "paul had a town reaction to being on the chopping block and so did aphix. I have no idea where to go so let's do a liability lynch." I'm fine doing dp if you'd rather that. Unless you're going to make a case for someone else.

Pedit: this is getting really frustrating. I feel like I've given a stance. I think they're both town.

[JaeReed]

The smart scum thing to do would be to lie lowand let the townies fight amongst themselves, not actively go against the flow and say something like that.

Please explain how this isn't what you're doing.

[BlackVoid]

Oh man, I wish we had more time. Deadline is around this time tomorrow. I have to leave for work right now. @Skitter, will you be around after midnight tonight? I want to discuss your last post and figure out who to lynch before it gets too close to deadline.

[skitter30]

@Jae: I kinda feel like how you arrived at Aphix/Paul town is kinda wonky and doesn't really progress naturally.

Aphix was initially 'could be scum, but dunno', 'kinda wanna lynch him to spite skitter,' 'let's hold off the lynch for a bit but i don't know why scum wouldn't be bussing here' (this is the bit that I find incredibly strange because I literally don't see a reason why scum *would* be bussing there and you never responded to this when I said that) 'wait, he's town now'

Then, after that, you moved on to Paul: 'townlean because you don't think he could be that genuine/free-flowing as scum' (at the end of day1), 'partial to shitposters and his interactions with Osuka early day1 seem genuine', literally no mention of them until halfway through day2 despite being the major topic of conversation, 'yes I'm ignoring paul because I don't know how to put my read of him into words,' 'vote Paul w/e,' 'Paul is the only one who could have made that night-kill (reachy imo)', 'he's town again because he asked to be lynched'

Then: 'vote Madtatters' as a liability lynch close to deadline but didn't try to push it.

Like, nothing here seems natural. It all seems kinda disingenuous. The things you're doing don't seem to match your reads or your stances, and your reads just kinda change and I'm not really seeing why.

Like, I'll drop it if it's making you frustrated, but this is why you're sketchy to me, and why you're my compromise lynch atm.

[skitter30]

@BV: I'll try, but no promises. If not I'll be around tomorrow.

[JaeReed]

'let's hold off the lynch for a bit but i don't know why scum wouldn't be bussing here' (this is the bit that I find incredibly strange because I literally don't see a reason why scum *would* be bussing there and you never responded to this when I said that)

uhh remind me where I said this please? hard to remember this without context but I remember thinking that scum HAD to be on that wagon at one point.

[JaeReed]

Like, nothing here seems natural. It all seems kinda disingenuous. The things you're doing don't seem to match your reads or your stances, and your reads just kinda change and I'm not really seeing why.

I mean my read on Paul was up in the air after the nightkill for the reasons I eventually shared where I was thinking about the stuff about PRs and nk choice.

[JaeReed]

If Jae flipped town I would look at you more.

Also this was @BV and I want to ask why you have this view because I think BV is pretty town.

[skitter30]

'let's hold off the lynch for a bit but i don't know why scum wouldn't be bussing here' (this is the bit that I find incredibly strange because I literally don't see a reason why scum *would* be bussing there and you never responded to this when I said that)

uhh remind me where I said this please? hard to remember this without context but I remember thinking that scum HAD to be on that wagon at one point.

@Skitter I haven't had as much time as I would have liked to read your posts but from what I can glean it feels like you're assuming that scum wouldn't bus here. Can you expand on why you think that, please?

Why would scum be bussing here? There's a perfectly viable counterwagon. Why would they not hop onto that? He hasn't done anything to warrant being wagoned that quickly. It's not like scum!Aphix's partner absolutely needs to distance from some awful team-incriminating slip he made or something. I see literally no reason for them to bus him here if they can just hop onto the counterwagon I'm pushing. What do they gain from it? They're losing one half of a two-member team for . . . what exactly?

[skitter30]

Like, nothing here seems natural. It all seems kinda disingenuous. The things you're doing don't seem to match your reads or your stances, and your reads just kinda change and I'm not really seeing why.

I mean my read on Paul was up in the air after the nightkill for the reasons I eventually shared where I was thinking about the stuff about PRs and nk choice.

I know. From my POV, it looks like you avoided talking to/about him for the first part of the day, and again, the temporary scumread was based solely on nk choice and not on anything he said/did at any point throughout the day. It felt like you were ignoring the major topic at hand.

[skitter30]

If Jae flipped town I would look at you more.

Also this was @BV and I want to ask why you have this view because I think BV is pretty town.

BV is fairly town, and based on meta I feel reasonably confidant in town!BV.

Before he replaced in, my understanding of the game was: scum!Paul + one of {Ciara slot/you/DP}. He's pretty quickly removed himself out of that pool, so right now it's scum!Paul + one of {you/DP}. DP I think is in that pool because I don't have enough content to read him; it isn't a strong scumread, it's just that no one else really fits in that slot. If I'm wrong about you, I have to reevaluate who makes sense there, and the fact that BV came into the game targetting town!you would make me suspect him more than anyone else then.

[JaeReed]

'let's hold off the lynch for a bit but i don't know why scum wouldn't be bussing here' (this is the bit that I find incredibly strange because I literally don't see a reason why scum *would* be bussing there and you never responded to this when I said that)

uhh remind me where I said this please? hard to remember this without context but I remember thinking that scum HAD to be on that wagon at one point.

@Skitter I haven't had as much time as I would have liked to read your posts but from what I can glean it feels like you're assuming that scum wouldn't bus here. Can you expand on why you think that, please?

Why would scum be bussing here? There's a perfectly viable counterwagon. Why would they not hop onto that? He hasn't done anything to warrant being wagoned that quickly. It's not like scum!Aphix's partner absolutely needs to distance from some awful team-incriminating slip he made or something. I see literally no reason for them to bus him here if they can just hop onto the counterwagon I'm pushing. What do they gain from it? They're losing one half of a two-member team for . . . what exactly?

Oh, that wasn't me saying scum are bussing so much as trying to understand your thoughts so I could make a ruling myself on that.

[JaeReed]

Like, nothing here seems natural. It all seems kinda disingenuous. The things you're doing don't seem to match your reads or your stances, and your reads just kinda change and I'm not really seeing why.

I mean my read on Paul was up in the air after the nightkill for the reasons I eventually shared where I was thinking about the stuff about PRs and nk choice.

I know. From my POV, it looks like you avoided talking to/about him for the first part of the day, and again, the temporary scumread was based solely on nk choice and not on anything he said/did at any point throughout the day. It felt like you were ignoring the major topic at hand.

All my thoughts revolved around "who makes that nightkill here?" so in a way - yes, I was ignoring what you considered a major topic. I was more focused on something that I considered more important.

[JaeReed]

If I'm wrong about you, I have to reevaluate who makes sense there, and the fact that BV came into the game targetting town!you would make me suspect him more than anyone else then.

I think this isn't a very strong point. Town can be wrong, and considering you suspect me I have to assume town have valid reasons to suspect me, and BV has laid out those reasons and I don't think he's being particularly disingenuous about his read here.
What are your reads if Paul is town here? I think you're focusing a lot on a Paul!scum world, which is great if he is scum, but if he's town I feel like you've spent too much time tunneling on one worldview and would rather have your thoughts there in the open before the next day phase.
Why is osuka or tatters not suspect if I flip town?

[skitter30]

If I'm wrong about you, I have to reevaluate who makes sense there, and the fact that BV came into the game targetting town!you would make me suspect him more than anyone else then.

I think this isn't a very strong point. Town can be wrong, and considering you suspect me I have to assume town have valid reasons to suspect me, and BV has laid out those reasons and I don't think he's being particularly disingenuous about his read here.
What are your reads if Paul is town here? I think you're focusing a lot on a Paul!scum world, which is great if he is scum, but if he's town I feel like you've spent too much time tunneling on one worldview and would rather have your thoughts there in the open before the next day phase.
Why is osuka or tatters not suspect if I flip town?

Fair enough. You apparently see the game through night kill analysis, and I tend to see it in terms of the gamestate and relationships players have with each other (see: why I don't think Aphix is scum, and certainly never scum with Paul). I think I keep a running list in my head of what pairings could make sense, and cross them off or add them to the list as things happen. I usually don't explicitly think through all the pairings, as much as sort of have a feel for what I think could make sense based on what relationships I'm seeing. Someone might get promoted/demoted in my reads because of PoE and because I need to put two people as scum in a six person game even though I'm not confident that my lowest reads are scum *together*.

My reads in a town!Jae world are as follows:
Town!Jae flip:
osuka/Aphix
tatters,BV
DP
Paul


Osuka is still a townread because the read is mostly independent of you/Paul/Aphix. I'm townreading him for his reaction to MWAP's gamethrow. Tatters' read is also independent of the three of you, so your townflip won't really affect anything. Tatters' is a townlean mostly because a few of their posts I just don't see newbscum saying. It's not that BV is no longer a townread, it's just that he gets demoted a bit because I'm not confident that Paul/DP are a team, and I need to consider how two scum can possibly fit amongst these six players. Me saying I want to look at him more is a PoE thing telling me that I shouldn't forget about him, not an explicit scumread. Like, I'd consider BV and tatters in the same sense here, even though they're both townleans.

Scum!Jae flip:
Aphix
Osuka/BV
Tatters
DP
Paul

I am willing to admit I might be tunneling Paul, which is why I keep on trying to take a step back and reevaluate my read of him. However, he keeps on doing things that are *very* hard for me to townread him, so my scumread keeps on coming back.

Scum Paul flip reads:
Aphix
osuka/BV
tatters
DP
You


But, to be thorough, my reads upon a town!Paul flip would look something like this:
osuka
Aphix/BV
tatters/DP
you

Osuka, again, is independent of you/Jae/Paul. Part of the Aphix townread is because he doesn't make sense with Paul. If Paul is town, Aphix's townread becomes less strong. Tatters moves down as part of PoE, because two of the six of you is scum, and I'm not confident in scum!DP here. You're progression on Paul is strange whatever his alignment. His flip doesn't really change that. BV and Aphix would also be considered, but sort of secondarily after tatters/dp/you.

Tatters is always in the middle because they're a townlean that isn't really affected by these flips, and I'm having trouble seeing them paired with anyone. DP a scumlean because their read isn't really affected by these flips. Osuka is towards the top because of MWAP.

[JaeReed]

Ok, what do you have in the case of both myself and Paul being town?

[JaeReed]

If DP were scum who is most likely his partner?
Why do you have trouble seeing tatters with anyone? Specially Aphix/DP.

[Alisae]

Don't steal