Open 692 - Two-fold Matrix6 (Game Over)

[Something_Smart]

If they are the JK...

Also don't sheep Kasu!slot it's had like 4 different people in it.

[Something_Smart]

The older players wouldn't have reads based on anything that's happened since they replaced out.
The newer players wouldn't have experienced (or in Mario's case, even read) the things that happened before they replaced in.

And if there is a JK and they did target the same player both nights, that person is very likely mafia IMO.

[Something_Smart]

Also the two primary holders of that slot both scumread me

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, it's your slot I'm talking about. Kasumeat and Mario.

[Something_Smart]

You can if you want, although a mod ISO would reveal that I replaced in on page 10 whereas Kasumeat lurked out on page 34 (and wasn't replaced until page 42).

[Something_Smart]

Feeling like Mario is town again. I just can't see scum-Kasumeat attempting to 1v1 me with an emotional outburst and then failing to cite that outburst as the reason I reevalauted him.

[Something_Smart]

I gave two reasons in 1307 and 1308...

[Something_Smart]

What case?

[Something_Smart]

There have been cases on me, which I have thoroughly addressed. But you don't seem to know that, because you haven't read the game. So what you call a "case" is based on an incorrect guess, made for no reason that I can see except to throw shade.

[Something_Smart]

If you addressed them fully why are people still voting you?

Because they're dumb. I was willing to trust Vedith's read because I've seen him be right in the past and not be able to explain it. And now he's equating it to sheeping him to try to get a mislynch (not on your slot but on Comm's).

[Something_Smart]

I mean obviously Comm isn't dumb, he inherited the vote.

[Something_Smart]

Comm didn't make the vote he currently has...

[Something_Smart]

Because I'm not going to call someone dumb without a reason.

[Something_Smart]

What do you know? You're dumb

[Something_Smart]

@Something_Smart - why is the above case dumb/how have you rebutted it?

Because it assumes I'm scum and then assigns motivation to my actions. Not to mention that if I'm scum I have CLEARLY no intention of mislynching Vedith as I have been hard townreading him most of the game. There is a perfectly valid town motivation to my actions-- sheeping a player whose reads have in the past been good-- and both Mario and Vedith were in the game I referred to. (Incidentally, in that game I ALSO got wagoned for sheeping a confirmed town player and was almost lynched, and I was town of course.)

[Something_Smart]

Because it assumes I'm scum and then assigns motivation to my actions.

How does it do that? It assesses your behavior and then assigns a tell to it as far as I can see.

It assigns a motivation to it. It doesn't explain why that motivation is any likelier than any other. And in fact, it doesn't make any sense because my play has pretty clearly been geared toward keeping Vedith from being lynched.

Not to mention that if I'm scum I have CLEARLY no intention of mislynching Vedith as I have been hard townreading him most of the game. There is a perfectly valid town motivation to my actions-- sheeping a player whose reads have in the past been good-- and both Mario and Vedith were in the game I referred to. (Incidentally, in that game I ALSO got wagoned for sheeping a confirmed town player and was almost lynched, and I was town of course.)

Did you believe his claim y/n?

For a minute, until I realized.

[Something_Smart]

So it's not doing what you initially claimed, and now your complaint is that he failed to describe why scum would be more likely to fall for a fakeclaim than town?
I can easily think of logic for that myself - scum are more likely to buy a claim because they come from a place of generally believing eveyone else will tel the truth, since they are the faction that lies.

No, because (a) it's multiball and (b) that's not a situation in which any scum would seriously fakeclaim a guilty. What happened was oldwino flipped anti-WW investigative and then Vedith claimed anti-WW investigative and it took me a minute to put the two together. In fact as scum I'd be much more suspect of it, especially if I were actually a WW and I knew that Mario WASN'T WW. (And if you think I'm scum with Mario I have some pages of back-and-forth between me and Kasumeat for you to read.)

[Something_Smart]

I never thought it was for lawlz. I thought Vedith was using it to demonstrate the strength of his read.

[Something_Smart]

But I realized between 1117 and 1118.

[Something_Smart]

His read progression regarding Ari and Not_Mafia was really weird, and he's just in general been hiding and not interacting.

[Something_Smart]

Sure keep blaming me for the no-lynch.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not.

[Something_Smart]

Then why are you getting others to lynch me when we are certain NotMafia is scum?

Because I'd rather lynch WW and let the JK take care of mafia.

With deadline in a week, and the lace of this game, if you persue me, or basically any other player than NM, were highly likely to get no lynch through.

Not my fault. (Also I have demonstrated my willingness to switch my vote near deadline.)

[Something_Smart]

I guess you deserve an explanation because you weren't here when I said it. I think that Not_Mafia would have claimed a PR as WW.

[Something_Smart]

Ari you're so fun when you try to gamesolve! You should do it more often
How do you feel about WhyMafia and Thor and my recent interaction with them?

[Something_Smart]

correct me if im wrong but youre saying youre positive nm is mafia but you would rather go for a less certain slot hoping to lynch a ww

This is wrong; I don't think Not_Mafia slot is confirmed mafia; whoever said that was misrepping (I think it was WhyMafia).

Also, I want to lynch that slot even less now because I'm pretty confident in my ability to read Umlaut.

[Something_Smart]

Well, I nailed you in that game, on the basis that your scumplay reminded me very much of my own. And I think I've read at least one of your other games where I called you as scum pretty quickly.

[Something_Smart]

Ari is so high on my list because I know him really well.

Seems you guys aren't willing to trust me so I'll have to make a case. Can whoever is scumreading him point to specific things that you scumread him for?

[Something_Smart]

Oh hey it's Titus. Titus please try not to be like you were in inspectorscout's mini normal

[Something_Smart]

<WhyMafia, Thor> would be my preference (between those I'd clearly prefer WhyMafia). Umlaut is OK for now, I was sketchy on your slot but you're OK for now, possibly Lang Buddha though I think he's more likely than not just annoying town.

[Something_Smart]

Although you were the one who speculated about your predecessor's reads, not Titus...

[Something_Smart]

Damn why so defensive...

You actually said they were "quite bad or quite good" and maybe it would be worth it to you to check them to see if you still think so, and if so which one you think it is?

[Something_Smart]

I wasn't trying to weaken your position. This game has suffered enough from waiting for other people to do things. If you want to find out what your predecessor's reads were (something that's kind of integral for your response to Titus's question), just look them up yourself.

[Something_Smart]

Then why didn't you just say it was a silly question rather than trying to answer it? I agree that it was a silly question, but your answer was interesting.

[Something_Smart]

Because the obvious answer to call the question silly is "because the scum didn't shoot me". But instead you mentioned your predecessor's reads, in a way which does not say nothing (you said QUITE good or QUITE bad, which excludes the possibility of slightly good or slightly bad).

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if you don't actually care about the quality of your predecessor's reads, then sure. But then why bring them up at all?

[Something_Smart]

Because the obvious answer to call the question silly is "because the scum didn't shoot me". But instead you mentioned your predecessor's reads, in a way which does not say nothing (you said QUITE good or QUITE bad, which excludes the possibility of slightly good or slightly bad).

Scum might have shot me, how do you know they didn't?

I don't, but given that I was actually around when your predecessor was here I don't think anyone would protect him.

I mean, if you don't actually care about the quality of your predecessor's reads, then sure. But then why bring them up at all?

Because I was asked why I was alive - if you don't think 'quality of reads' is a factor in how long a town slot lives in a game then I would be fascinated to hear what you think the factors are.

For one, it's multiball so each scumteam only knows half of how good someone's reads are. Also there's how townread someone is, PR tells, intended crosskills, reputation, none of which your slot had. And it's only been 2 nights so sure maybe a slot with really good reads wouldn't survive until LYLO but we're not nearly there yet.

[Something_Smart]

Lang can you do this please?

Ari is so high on my list because I know him really well.

Seems you guys aren't willing to trust me so I'll have to make a case. Can whoever is scumreading him point to specific things that you scumread him for?

[Something_Smart]

And you don't believe that he plays like that as town too?

[Something_Smart]

Okay, so Thor/SS looks like a TvT to me. They noth appear to ve sorting each other. I like SS saying not to sheep the Kaus slot and I like Thir pushing around at others rather than clinging solely to that point.

I don't know, I got more of the impression that Thor was trying to see if he could swing a wagon on me...

[Something_Smart]

I was thinking about this scenario overnight (though I thought it would be with Umlaut), and I don't think it constitutes gamethrowing to say this.

Thor, I'd like you to help us kill the werewolves. If both werewolves die while you are alive, I'll use a fair random method to give you a 20% chance to win, and I swear that if you accept this I'll follow through on it. However, if you refuse or we fail to kill both werewolves, then I'll make sure you don't win. Hopefully other people will sign off on this so you can't just kill me to get out of it.

Unrelated: Guardian/elder should claim today but not claim which.

[Something_Smart]

Actually BP should also claim if there is one.

[Something_Smart]

Ooh a confession. You are the last mafia Thor.

Also, I have a husband, so sorry on Thor Titus sex.

[Something_Smart]

Because I thought your slot was mafia for a while.

Right now my PoE pool is {you, Lang, Comm} and I don't think you're scum with Lang so I think that means lynch Comm but I'm nowhere near confident enough in that yet and I doubt Thor is going to cooperate. (Which is a shame because you probably would have )

[Something_Smart]

Do you not trust my read on Ari to be correct?

[Something_Smart]

But I've been saying very confidently that Ari is town basically the whole game. Does that mean anything to you?

I still want to figure out what happened with the attitude toward Vedith between yesterday and today, but I can do that overnight.

Did this ever happen?

[Something_Smart]

wow
those look pretty strong hints in hindsight
now back to the claiming thing: what good does it do us to know who is a pr?

We get a confirmed town. And I'd rather not open up the opportunity of werewolves CC'ing in LYLO.

[Something_Smart]

I'm really wary of plans more complicated than "find the scum, kill the scum" outside of situations like endgame dilemmas.

This isn't a reason though. It's just you being intentionally narrow-minded.

[Something_Smart]

i do believe youre town but i dont know how well you know ari or how good a player you are (no offense)

Well I've played 6 games with him as a hydra, so I have a pretty good idea of how he thinks at least.

[Something_Smart]

can we please not rush a lynch here? we know where most people stand already so we need to decide which route gives us a better chance of winning

Well of course we shouldn't rush a lynch, but I'm pretty sure leashing Thor is better. If we lynch Thor we get one mislynch if we're lucky, and if we leash him we get at least two in every scenario that I can see.

[Something_Smart]

yeah that's two mislynches counting Thor's shot as a lynch, because if he disobeys us in that scenario we do lynch him even though it's a WW win.

[Something_Smart]

torn between
CommKnight - because Umlaut/Lang seems unlikely given early game interactions
Umlaut - because I've been on that slot all game and it hasn't died yet
Lang - because he's refusing to play

[Something_Smart]

What lead?

[Something_Smart]

What's your read on Lang Buddha?

[Something_Smart]

Literally his only read is an Ari scumread...

Also what do you mean "might be town"? Everyone (except Thor ) MIGHT be town. Ignore his playstyle and try to read his content. Is it towny or scummy? And you can keep your experience in mind but just don't say it.

[Something_Smart]

Also every time I try to reread Kasumeat it makes me want to tear my hair out.

[Something_Smart]

but I don't actually find him wolfy in the first place

Why not

[Something_Smart]

That's a weak and surface-level argument coupled with really flimsy meta.

Do you have anything else?

[Something_Smart]

Also I can't help but notice that you came out unwilling to consider complicating plans regarding leaving Thor alive but as soon as you got scumread for it you changed your tune, as far as I can tell without a good reason.

[Something_Smart]

Would you like to vote me then?

The hell kind of question is that? Why do you care?

[Something_Smart]

If I want to vote you, I'll do it.

[Something_Smart]

Lynching you takes a kill off the board that we could otherwise force you to use to bring us into odds. And the odds of a mafia win are still very low because, assuming you're mafia, neither the town not the werewolves will take an action allowing you to win; in 1v1v2 going into the day town will no lynch rather than risk lynching werewolf and in 1v1v2 going into the night werewolves will certainly kill you.

If Ari is lynched and flips town, Umlaut should eat a bullet.

[Something_Smart]

Town doesn't advocate not killing scum.

Also I can prove this wrong very easily: 1v1v1 or 1v1v2. In both cases, lynching scum autoloses for town. In the second, lynching town actually gives town a higher EV than no-lynching.

Multiball lategame and endgame scenarios are very weird, and all bets are off. Because don't forget: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." So congratulations Thor, you're my friend.

[Something_Smart]

Because we can mislynch and not lose the game.

[Something_Smart]

Town autolose? Even 2v2v1 is still winnable for town.

And the reason I'm claiming town can control the kill is that town can say to you "if you don't kill X, we'll lynch you tomorrow". Then, if X doesn't die, we lynch you. Granted, that doesn't control the mafia kill if you're not mafia, but otherwise you have a 0% chance of winning if you deviate, and I think that constitutes "control" to me. By deviating, you'd throw the game to the wolves, and you said yourself that my plan increases the chance of a mafia win so you wouldn't want to do that.

In all honesty though I think Thor is just antagonizing me because he's confident he lost. (Which is not his fault as he replaced into a basically hopeless situation.) We can go forward with the plan anyway and he'd be gamethrowing to deviate, no matter what he says.

[Something_Smart]

Umlaut.

[Something_Smart]

If you want we can discuss theory after the game. (I designed this setup so I'd definitely appreciate feedback.) If you want to keep arguing it now, crunch the numbers. I might do it today or tomorrow if I have time.

[Something_Smart]

But please do the calculations as though you're confirmed mafia, because if you're not then we'll have to give Titus a stern talking-to.

[Something_Smart]

But please do the calculations as though you're confirmed mafia, because if you're not then we'll have to give Titus a stern talking-to.

You're agreeing with me that it is increasing Mafia win chance - are you claiming that increase only comes from a loss of Wolf win chance? Because otherwise I'm correct without needing to do calculations unless yours are wrong.

I am absolutely claiming that.

Umlaut.

Aren't you advancing Umlaut as a wolf? Why is he highly likely to be both?

Because his slot is scummy...?

[Something_Smart]

I mean he's not likely to be mafia because you're mafia. But until today I thought he was mafia.

[Something_Smart]

Like, if I was Mafia, my optimal play is to agree to your plan, and then to shoot someone I'm convinced is town because then you can't afford to lynch me (unless we lynch wolf, then I'm slightly screwed).

Your "leash" for this is...well, nothing at all.

Tell me about your maths that somehow leash scum.
And then we can go to the discussion about how this plan is excellent for wolves, and is actually even better for them if I'm town.
Incidentally, it is why I think you're a wolf, because my logic doesn't presume people to be dumb.

I don't think you're dumb. What I do think is that if you intentionally shoot town I will have no problems lynching you and handing the game to the werewolves. It's game theory; you make a threat to do something that harms both of you so that the other person does what you want.

No game solving anything by jjd, man. Must be aristo's buddy, hmm?

[Something_Smart]

Want to read my ISO?

[Something_Smart]

I don't think he's likely mafia. I think you're likely mafia. If I knew you were town, then I'd think he's likely mafia. As it is I think he's likely wolf, because I think he's likely not town.

What about that is hard to understand?

[Something_Smart]

I don't get how you think Thor might be town at all, but I agree with not lynching him, so...

In any event it's definitely better to lynch a werewolf today.
VOTE: Umlaut

[Something_Smart]

Don't have a supposed partner yet.

And if you're not mafia, it's not me who threw.

[Something_Smart]

Not_Mafia wagon at its highest point (post 860) consisted of:

Something_Smart, oldwino, Judge Joseph Dredd, Vedith, WhyMafia

Town, flipped town, strong townread, strong townread, flipped town.

[Something_Smart]

I am buddy hunting. I am not EXCLUSIVELY buddy hunting.

[Something_Smart]

Both are obviously genuinely scumhunting and trying to solve the game. If you want more you can look for them in my ISO.

[Something_Smart]

@S_S - why is it that you challenged me to use math to understand your plan, yet when I pointed out the flaws you went silent.

Because there's no point in arguing it; you're clearly not going to claim mafia and so you're never going to accept my reasoning which is wholly contingent on you being mafia.

1. Have you done any percentage math on your plan, and if so what is it?

No

2. Did you agree or disagree with my take when it was explained and why?

I think you're underestimating how incredibly terrible this MYLO would be. Like I believe that if we lynch you town's practical chances are almost zero.

3. Why did you keep advancing your plan over my objections if you thought I was Mafia, since clearly you weren't leashing me so...like, wouldn't your understanding be that I wasn't agreeing to play ball and thus needed to be leashed? Why would you let me get a kill then?

Because even if you disagree, you can still be leashed. Since you agree that you following along with the plan would give you a chance to win, we can lay down that if you don't kill who we say to, we will lynch you even if it gives the werewolves an immediate win, and to the best of my understanding that's not gamethrowing.

Also, even if we couldn't control who you killed, the fact that you killed anyone at all would still be good for us because it's another kill that might potentially land on a werewolf. We need as many of those as we can get; if we lynch you we only get one.

By the way, Ari defended Not_Mafia pretty heavily when he was wagoned.

[Something_Smart]

1. Have you done any percentage math on your plan, and if so what is it?

No

Then why were you handing me that BS math line? Were you just hoping I'd be too dumb to check,

or did you just guess that your math was right?

This

You did it too, we won't know for sure until we check.

Because even if you disagree, you can still be leashed.

Since you agree that you following along with the plan would give you a chance to win, we can lay down that if you don't kill who we say to, we will lynch you even if it gives the werewolves an immediate win, and to the best of my understanding that's not gamethrowing.

Actually, no, no I couldn't be.
And, yeah, I'll agree, after the bad plan when town's wincon is in the toilet, kingmaking is not gamethrowing, the gamethrowing would have been today when you gave up town's chance to win for no reason while the lynchpin for your plan to even begin to work was actively describing how bad he thought the plan was.

Town's wincon is not in the toilet if we lynch werewolf today OR if you kill werewolf tonight. Then it's 1v1v3 which is beatable by lynching scum both days. (Although like I said, I'd be willing to give you a chance to win if you survived the death of both werewolves.)
And you're saying that town is in a bad spot if we mislynch today. That's not wrong, but if we lynch you today and mislynch tomorrow it's much worse.

Also, even if we couldn't control who you killed, the fact that you killed anyone at all would still be good for us because it's another kill that might potentially land on a werewolf. We need as many of those as we can get; if we lynch you we only get one.

Yeah, except it is actively in Mafia's interest to not actually help wipe wolves at this stage of the game.
The only benefit for Mafia alive to town is if Wolves decide to kill Mafia, and if town lynched a Wolf then it wouldn't be in Wolves interest.

Unless I do the 20% thing, then it is in your interest to kill a wolf.

By the way, Ari defended Not_Mafia pretty heavily when he was wagoned.

Your implication being they might be buddies?
What is your take of 1547 in that situation?

My implication being that they aren't buddies.

Also, in a world where you pretend I'm town - what do you think of my Mafia rule outs?

They're literally my townreads, so they're fine

[Something_Smart]

This

You did it too, we won't know for sure until we check.

I showed you my work, so...

You did the calculations?

Town's wincon is not in the toilet if we lynch werewolf today OR if you kill werewolf tonight. Then it's 1v1v3 which is beatable by lynching scum both days.

You know what gives the exact same win odds as that for town?
Lynching known Mafia today.
Which you claim to know.
Which is why your plan is narf.

1v1v3 with known mafia is not the same odds as 2v4 with no known scum.

And you're saying that town is in a bad spot if we mislynch today. That's not wrong, but if we lynch you today and mislynch tomorrow it's much worse.

I will agree that a lynch of Mafia today followed by a mislynch is bad.
It doesn't make it a worse plan for town than your plan though, in fact it remains the best plan for town.
Town is behind the eight ball and

needs cross kills

and/or correct lynches across the board in any plan leading to their victory.

This is exactly why we don't lynch mafia today! Cross kills can save the game if we mislynch.

Unless I do the 20% thing, then it is in your interest to kill a wolf.

It would actually be in Mafia's interest to no kill at that stage.
Known Mafia in a 3v1v1 always loses barring really bad play from both town and wolf.

Unless we specifically give you a chance to win. I promise I won't lynch you if it gets to 3v1v1; I'll go for the werewolf first.

My implication being that they aren't buddies.

Why do you think he would bus at that stage with the gamestate looking like it was?

I don't necessarily think he would bus but he wouldn't hard defend a deadweight partner like Not_Mafia.

[Something_Smart]

You did the calculations?

No - do I need to in order to get your head out of your butt?

No, I plan to do them at some point before the end of the day.

1v1v3 with known mafia is not the same odds as 2v4 with no known scum.

Yep, especially with your claim that you would then try to lynch a Wolf.

This one could be a matter of opinion. I personally think that MYLO is in general miserable for the town, and that as long as both teams are alive crosskills are always a possibility.

Unless we specifically give you a chance to win. I promise I won't lynch you if it gets to 3v1v1; I'll go for the werewolf first.

That is game throwing and against site rules, so you are either lying, or bad at the game and either way I want you to be a wolf and not on my team.

This is what I was saying though; I don't think it is. I'm playing to my win condition by giving you an incentive to help town. Game theory-wise it is a smart move.

I don't necessarily think he would bus but he wouldn't hard defend a deadweight partner like Not_Mafia.

Sure, but you're saying he did, and now he has Umlaut who is not dead weight.
So I ask again, why do you think he bussed then if they are wolves?
I don't think it makes sense.

I don't think Ari and Umlaut are likely to be a team because of Ari's defense of Not_Mafia. (I also have a pretty strong independent townread on Ari.)

[Something_Smart]

Why is Lang town?

[Something_Smart]

Because he's deflecting off of his buddy Lang

[Something_Smart]

Hey Comm your meta game for Lang is over (my condolences, btw). Please elaborate on that read now.

[Something_Smart]

One kill each night, at least one of which was known to be a werewolf kill
Titus softed a guilty on Thor
Titus flipped JK
Put two and two together

[Something_Smart]

Because... you don't believe she actually had a guilty?

[Something_Smart]

Me or Vedith?
Because it was definitely a soft. It's not inconceivable that she'd soft such a guilty if her results were less conclusive, but I'd like to believe that the highest poster on the entire site knows basic PR play.

[Something_Smart]

Comm please explain your read on Lang in more detail.

[Something_Smart]

COMM STOP IGNORING ME

[Something_Smart]

Comm wanna ignore me a third time?

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: CommKnight

[Something_Smart]

because people won't answer your damn question more than twice.

You didn't answer the question at all though.

[Something_Smart]

CommKnight is literally dodging my question. He wrote it off as ongoing game meta and now that the game's over he's refusing to answer.

[Something_Smart]

My vote on Comm isn't necessarily going to stay. But it's staying until he answers the damn question.

[Something_Smart]

I actually almost looked into that but figured Titus's message was clear enough. But given that, Titus may have crumbed a block on Lang one of the nights.

Let's not be subtle.

VOTE: Thor
VOTE: Lang

Why are you two still sucking air?

VOTE: Thor

Although the Thor vote indicated that she thought Thor was more likely mafia. But I can see it at least.

[Something_Smart]

Which would open Thor up to being werewolf. Though I do think that's less likely.

[Something_Smart]

I believe Comm is smart enough to bus in Comm/Umlaut.

[Something_Smart]

I think we should massclaim BP/not BP

[Something_Smart]

Yes it does, if there's a BP it implicates Lang because Thor would have been able to kill Titus anyway. Although I think the odds are good that both scum would have killed Titus anyway.

[Something_Smart]

It made more sense in my head
Basically in the world where Thor is scum RB he almost certainly blocks and kills Titus, so two kills would be more likely. Therefore, if we knew it was a mafia RB, the fact that there was only one kill would make Thor less likely scum. (Also it helps to explain away another missing mafia kill.)

[Something_Smart]

@ss: actually if there is a bp then the case on lang falls apart as the 2 goons things becomes not a slip
however im fully convinced it was a slip and thus i say there is no bp and it was a solo jk all along
i thus would agree to claim precisely bp/not bp meaning the elder if existent should claim no bp

Right

I knew there was something I was forgetting lol

[Something_Smart]

And in case you couldn't guess, I'm not BP.

[Something_Smart]

Shush, it was late

[Something_Smart]

Because we can't do both and you haven't figured out which is the right one yet.

[Something_Smart]

Not BP

Not BP

Not BP

FTFY

[Something_Smart]

Not BP

Missed one

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, because Lang's apparent slip only holds if the mafia are both goons.

[Something_Smart]

Are you?

[Something_Smart]

So we know if Lang's slip was real.

Are you even reading?

[Something_Smart]

Lang mentioned something about mafia maybe intentionally no-killing because they feared a tracker, but mafia would only do that if they were both goons.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think that was a BP claim

[Something_Smart]

How about this: if he flips VT or BP or WW you start using correct capitalization and punctuation.

[Something_Smart]

Someone talk to me about an Umlaut/CommKnight wolf team, and if not what other team that does not include Aristophanes makes sense.

And Vedith is playing anti-town as usual.

[Something_Smart]

Am I the third person in your theory three wolves?

[Something_Smart]

Oh Vedith. I'd say he's the one of my townreads I'm most likely to consider on him, but I have townread his slot most of the game.

[Something_Smart]

EBWOP

Oh Vedith. I'd say he's the one of my townreads I'm most likely to

reconsider on

, but I have townread his slot most of the game.

[Something_Smart]

In fact that sentence was just garbage. Of my three townreads (Judge, Ari, Vedith), Vedith is the one I have the most paranoia of. And I kind of need paranoia because your play has been solid and if Lang flips mafia PoE narrows it down to Umlaut/CommKnight which I like but think might be too easy.

[Something_Smart]

CommKnight, how do you think Vedith's play here compares to in Bondage & Discipline? (Umlaut and Lang can answer too, I guess)

[Something_Smart]

you know, now that you mention it I kinda do want to hammer.



(I won't though, not yet anyway)

[Something_Smart]

I completely and utterly fail to see what Lang dislikes about the "I guess" though. Unless he's not a native speaker and thought that I was saying I was guessing, which I doubt.

[Something_Smart]

What was your issue with "I guess"?

[Something_Smart]

Because the question was aimed at CommKnight, but you and Umlaut were also involved in the game and so your thoughts might have been nice to hear as well, but not as important as CommKnight's.

[Something_Smart]

Because I'm trying to sort CommKnight as much as Vedith with that question... (Also CommKnight was in the game for longer than you were)

[Something_Smart]

Great, the revolving door slot is open again.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, Lang directly responded to Ari's intent by not claiming a PR, so if he is a PR he just threw.

[Something_Smart]

Thor is probably werewolf.

I love this setup

[Something_Smart]

Nobody else makes sense as werewolf, and Thor makes a LOT of sense as a partner to Ari.

[Something_Smart]

How am I "awkwardly" realizing you're not mafia now? (Especially since you don't seem to scumread me.)

[Something_Smart]

the problem here is if they both shoot town and we emerge as 1-1-1 tomorrow as i dont see why they wouldnt just lynch the townie and claim a joint win.

Game theory saves the day on this one. I'll explain it when I'm not on mobile.

Also Vedith that has to be a first.

[Something_Smart]

By the way Thor, town is in a much better situation than if we had lynched mafia yesterday.

Anyway, here's my game theory thing. If you're town in a 1:1:1, say this:
"I know that you both can draw by lynching me. However, I promise that either of you votes me, I will immediately vote that player back and never unvote. Whether one of you wins or both draw, I still lose, so I have no incentive to go back on this. Therefore, if one of you votes me, the other has the choice between voting me too and getting a draw or waiting for me to vote and getting a win. If you both trust that I am in fact town, your only option will be to No Lynch and go into a Prisoner's Dilemma."

Now, this doesn't work if there isn't a confirmed or obvious town. But assuming scum shoot for other scum, there probably will be. At the very least, this strategy should guarantee a No Lynch which gives town a shot.

(This is not the first time I've said this, either.)

Pedit: that's ironic

[Something_Smart]

And yeah that was a 12-minute pedit because it took me a while to find the link to the previous game.

[Something_Smart]

@S_S - Yeah, forcing Prisoner's Dilema - the optimal win shot for town. Why didn't I think of advocating a plan to get us into that situation?

My argument works in favor of a No Lynch. It means that we can't lose tonight even if both shots hit town.

So please cut the sarcasm because it doesn't sound like you want to work with me.

[Something_Smart]

Vedith copping to having no idea is the most suspicious thing about him, really.

That and his vote on me.

By the way I'm not 100% for No Lynch but I'm always a fan of letting scum do the work in multiball endgames.

[Something_Smart]

How could I ever be 100% on someone as scum?

And I disagree that they both can't be good ideas; I think both are likely to lead to a win.

[Something_Smart]

Because lynching today is better if we lynch scum. That doesn't mean I have to be 100% confident, it means I need to be confident enough to risk it.

And Umlaut, does that apply whether the scum in question is mafia or werewolf? Because I agree that Judge werewolf is incredibly unlikely but I personally think that my interactions would preclude me from being mafia more than his would.

[Something_Smart]

Thor it's called risk management. You can't not do anything for fear of being wrong. If I were 99% sure someone was scum I'd gladly vote them, but I'm not one for false bravado and many of my reads so far have been wrong so I don't think I am confident enough to lynch. But the point stands that I COULD be.

(Also half the reason I've engaged you so much this game is that I love arguing semantics A lot of it doesn't have much bearing so if you want me to stop I can try to look past your semantics and respond to your meaning as much as I can. Though it's probably moot as you're unlikely to live to tomorrow.)

[Something_Smart]

Basically that sums up to, don't tell me what to think.

[Something_Smart]

???

I'm advocating the same thing you are

[Something_Smart]

Cases?

Thor is WW by PoE and because he's been generally antagonistic and accusatory (and he played along to the "confirmed mafia" thing)
Vedith is mafia by PoE and because he's done nothing of value recently

There are my cases

[Something_Smart]

Now you're ignoring the possibility of you being shot?

[Something_Smart]

The N1 kill was either or a no kill (which Vedith has intentionally done before) or stopped by the JK.

N2 and N3 any number of things could have happened, including Titus stopping the mafia kill again, Umlaut stopping the WW kill, and both scum killing the night targets (who both softed very obviously).

[Something_Smart]

You're shading me like crazy while still somehow townreading me, and neither Vedith nor Judge makes a lick of sense as Ari's partner.

[Something_Smart]

not gonna answer

[Something_Smart]

I did not intend to post that lol

not gonna answer a question I literally just answered @1880

[Something_Smart]

You had Comm as scum, I see no reason why you wouldn't kill him.

[Something_Smart]

how about both scum shooting an obvious PR?

and well yeah, scum in multiball love to accuse people of being their same scumteam, doesn't mean they actually believe it

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if I'm wolf why are YOU alive?

[Something_Smart]

Idk I saw the end of Paint Mafia Sequel

and my mafia case on you was not my own. it was Titus's.

[Something_Smart]

I'm a little afraid that both Vedith and Thor will shoot me actually.

And my reasoning for Thor is WW is that nobody else makes sense as WW and it would explain his tryharding.

[Something_Smart]

Or in that scenario you could lynch Judge and force a prisoner's dilemma...

Pedit: but Vedith is mafia.

[Something_Smart]

Thor you think I'm mafia? I have a quote for you then.

[Something_Smart]

I understand that.

Also Raya just signed up for another game.

[Something_Smart]

1901 was directed at Umlaut, the pagetop was unfortunate.

And it clears me because that's my only notable interaction with Raya. Raya was already in the process of being replaced so what you said doesn't make sense. That's the type of thing that somebody MIGHT latch onto and drive a lynch based on, and I said it in the interest of getting information out there that others could use. Particularly if someone who knew Raya had seen it that might have made them convinced that she was scum. (In fact that might have been a reason why she died that night.) If I'm going to interact with my partner, I'm not going to make my one interaction be pointing out a legitimate scumtell that my partner did that nobody else noticed.

[Something_Smart]

I wasn't the first to bring it up.

[Something_Smart]

If I'm the only one to die, have the VT (probably Judge) volunteer to be lynched to force Prisoner's Dilemma.

[Something_Smart]

But the VT is the only player who will be genuinely willing to lynch themself. When somebody volunteers, have the other two unconfirmed players vote them (you holding onto your vote so that there isn't a scum hammer) and ask them to self-hammer. Only the VT actually will because it's anti-wincon otherwise.

[Something_Smart]

Also I do kind of wish we had waited for Vedith to claim before no-lynching. But if Vedith counterclaims Umlaut, just lynch him.

[Something_Smart]

By "him" I mean Vedith of course.

[Something_Smart]

You had one job...

I'm actually trying to figure out if we have something better than no-lynch immediately. Because as it stands Thor would probably kill me, though it would help to know which kind of scum you each are so I could make a proper case on Judge. (And Thor, your ONLY chance to get Judge not to shoot you is to petition him for a draw.)

But the thing is

I have the ultimate power right now

, because I can make either of you lose immediately. So I'm wondering if I can extort a scumclaim out of either or both of you. Now of course that failed on Thor before but it was based on a failed premise; there's no way my premise here can be wrong

Here's the best deal I can come up with:

if either of you claim scum, including which team, the other must do so in their next post or I will vote them.

If this goes on long enough I'll probably vote Thor because he deserves the won a hell of a lot less than Judge does.

Now Thor: you see what's going on here. Everyone has to pretend to be the last town and they need to pretend a winning plan. If Judge hammers no-lynch without letting my plan go, I trust you to realize that that's a survivalistic tactic and shoot him.

[Something_Smart]

Make that *deserves the

win

.

[Something_Smart]

Welp I didn't see that coming and now my entire post is irrelevant but I want to share it anyway because I'm proud of it

Spoiler: irrelevant

Omg I can do LAMIST too. (And I'm way better at it.)

I'm not gonna directly engage you because no discourse can be honest. Unless you decide a different action is better, it is in your interest to keep claiming to be town while secretly sorting between me and Judge.

Which means that, even though you can't admit it, you ARE listening. So I'm not expecting a result, but I'm talking right to the actual Thor when I say that Judge is not going to shoot me. And even if despite all this you STILL think I'm scum then I won't be shooting Judge either.

I do have the upper hand here and there's a chance I vote Judge and hand you the win. Judge has been playing the long game with an impressive bus. So he will be understandably reluctant to claim scum.

There's your chance to win. If you claim, Judge might think I'm bluffing. He might be stubborn. If either of those things happen, you win. And you won't win otherwise.

[Something_Smart]

@ss: if i had shot thor, would you have voted vedith over me?

Not immediately. I had strong reasons to think you both were not WW. I'd like to say I would have made the right choice but it would have been 1000 times more stressful than this so thanks

[Something_Smart]

Okay.
VOTE: No Lynch

Request short night

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I was totally right. If we'd lynched you instead of Lang we would have gone into MYLO and there's no way I would have voted for either wolf.

[Something_Smart]

what would you do if:

1- we both decided to shoot you and settle for a draw?
2- one of us decides they've lost anyway so they refrain from shooting the other granting them the win instead of you?

I believe I would lose.

[Something_Smart]

It meant given the scenario the plan was right.

[Something_Smart]

Honestly, I'm happier with you two drawing than with losing to either particular team. It means nobody came out entirely on top.

[Something_Smart]

I knew my reads were untrustworthy, and I said as much.

[Something_Smart]

And honestly I don't think ANY faction deserved to win on its own this game.

But it was fun, GG! (And I still like the setup)

Pedit: no, I was also confident in Ari, Judge, and Vedith being town.

[Something_Smart]

Actually maybe the werewolves might but idk. Judge played very well.

[Something_Smart]

I accept full responsibility for this loss.

If I hadn't designed the setup, this never would have happened

[Something_Smart]

@SS: You played well. my friend.

I would say I was 1 for 2 with main town objectives: I was obvtown but my reads were shit.

Fortunately that's more fun than the other way around, which has also happened to me a fair amount...

Also I find it hilarious that you kept trying to bus your buddy and I kept not letting you

Also Thor, I was meaning to ask before. You said I lied quite a bit... what were you referring to? I never tried to play anyone until the very end when I tried to trick you into shooting Judge (and for the record, I was almost certain Judge would shoot Thor there, so I'm surprised that he didn't play for the win).

[Something_Smart]

You probably should have just claimed, especially since your role would have not had any use once Thor was lynched (and the wolves wouldn't know whether or not there was a guardian who could protect you).