Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!


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Post Post #775 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:11 pm

Post by Erg0 »

The thing to bear in mind with the averages is that scum are almost always going to make a claim that has a high potential of saving them on day 1. Rather than players lynched, a better stat would be how often players that are forced to make the first claim on day 1 turn out to be scum.

That said, day 1 wasn't such a bad result in this game - the opie wagon was a good one to leverage off. There is still a lot of mafia to be played here, though.


======================================================
Votecount #31

ChaosOmega - 2 (Erg0, Adel)


Not voting - 7 (Matt_S, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Incognito, Oman)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
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Post Post #776 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

People who were on the opie wagon at some time during day 1 (skipping the first 5 votecounts, green=town, bold=vote at lynch):
Adel
, Xylthixlm,
Oman
,
Guardian
,
ChaosOmega
,
pickemgenius


People who were on the Guardian wagon at some time during day 1:
opie
, Matt_S,
Incognito
, Adel,
Jitsu


People who were on the ChaosOmega wagon at some time during day 1:
Patrick, Erg0,
Matt_S
, Incognito,
Xylthixlm
,
Guardian


So Adel was on both townie wagons, despite strongly (and randomly?) bandwagoning opie. Adel's first vote on Guardian, and explanation, is rather brief:
Adel wrote:
unvote, vote Guardian
Adel wrote:call it a pre-emptive OMGUS vote. You should've supported the opie wagon, now I'm going to get you.
Adel proceeds to flip back and forth between opie and Guardian (and at one point Matt_S).

I also notice that Adel didn't say anything at all about ChaosOmega day 1.

FoS: Adel
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Post Post #777 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:22 pm

Post by Adel »

how many times have I mentioned Xylthixlm or Incognito?
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Post Post #778 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:38 pm

Post by Patrick »

Adel wrote:sometimes gambits work.
I know. If you're gambitting as town and caught scum with it then I'll applaud you, and literally lol.
Primpod 11:13 pm
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i would love to finally touch your face
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Post Post #779 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 6:11 pm

Post by Jitsu »

Adel wrote:
Patrick wrote:Adel, what do you think of Oman?
totally scum.

I also suspect that we have a vig and not an sk.
@Adel: I have several questions for you.

I noticed on several occasions you acting supportive toward Oman on Day 1, and it didn't seem as if you found him scummy for most of the day. So, how did you really feel about Oman? If you didn't find him scummy early on, what changed your mind?

Did you really think Opie was guilty at the end of Day 1?

Why do you suspect we have a vig and not an SK?
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Post Post #780 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 6:34 pm

Post by Jitsu »

Erg0 wrote:The thing to bear in mind with the averages is that scum are almost always going to make a claim that has a high potential of saving them on day 1.
OK, so then why do you think CO found Guardian guilty this morning and not innocent, when an innocent cop would be much easier to believe than an insane one in a mini normal?
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Post Post #781 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 6:48 pm

Post by Erg0 »

I would never have believed that we have a tracker, watcher and sane cop in the same 12 player game - that would be an exceptionally powerful combination for the town. Claiming a wacky sanity was his only real option, and to "prove" that he needed to have a guilty result on either Guardian or PEG.
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Post Post #782 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:00 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Tracker + watcher is already a pretty powerful combination. I'd be surprised if the scum don't have a roleblocker. And if the scum have a roleblocker, they would be idiots not to block ChaosOmega... which makes his result even less believable.
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Post Post #783 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:22 am

Post by Adel »

Jitsu wrote: @Adel: I have several questions for you.

I noticed on several occasions you acting supportive toward Oman on Day 1, and it didn't seem as if you found him scummy for most of the day. So, how did you really feel about Oman? If you didn't find him scummy early on, what changed your mind?
he was agreeing with me, and I tend to give players that agree with me the public benefit of the doubt. I'm always skeptical.
Did you really think Opie was guilty at the end of Day 1?
*shrug* I didn't really think about it. I was more interested in getting him lynched than trying to figure out his alignment.
Why do you suspect we have a vig and not an SK?
Because I've seen this rush to reach conclusions before, when I was a vig. A death scene with a knife wound and a gunshot would does not mean that we are up against a mafia group and a sk. That supposed SK-kill could really be from a vig, a second mafia group, or werewolves. I advocate model angosticism.
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Post Post #784 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 6:14 am

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Adel wrote:he was agreeing with me, and I tend to give players that agree with me the public benefit of the doubt. I'm always skeptical.
OK, so what was it that changed your opinion of Oman from "I'm giving him the public benefit of the doubt" and being skeptical of him, to publicly declaring him "totally scum"?
*shrug* I didn't really think about it. I was more interested in getting him lynched than trying to figure out his alignment.
I have respect for your ability to gambit and get results. It's worked well for you in the past in some cases. In others, you could have easily cost the town the game. I've not read any of your scum games yet, but I can see how developing a reputation for acting scummy even as town can help you escape criticism as scum as well. Since you've apparently spent some of the town's currency by randomly lynching Opie with a weak case to try to out the scum and gain information, I want to know what return you've gotten on the investment. What did you learn from Day 1 regarding Opie's lynch?
Because I've seen this rush to reach conclusions before, when I was a vig. A death scene with a knife wound and a gunshot would does not mean that we are up against a mafia group and a sk. That supposed SK-kill could really be from a vig, a second mafia group, or werewolves. I advocate model angosticism.
OK, I agree with these statements, but it sounds like your answer here, referencing model agnosticism and listing the possibilities, is saying that it's just as likely to be one as any of the others, and it is unwise to assume one over the other, simply because knife kills are commonly attributed to an SK. Cautioning people that we may not be dealing with an SK and keep an open mind is sage advice, but then why did you say earlier that you also suspected that we have a Vig and not an SK? Are you saying that this situation is close enough to the previous one that you believe the role is the same?
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Post Post #785 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 6:52 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Adel, let me get you straight. You picked a random player day 1, and bandwagoned him to lynch without ever wondering whether or not he was actually scum. And you expect us to be happy about this?
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Post Post #786 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:43 am

Post by Adel »

Jitsu wrote:I've not read any of your scum games yet, but I can see how developing a reputation for acting scummy even as town can help you escape criticism as scum as well.
I was most recently scum in newbie 540 (& beat MoS in a pie E7). http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7187

Before that I was a cult member who could kill but not recruit in Doctor Who mafia http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5704, and lost.

i also lost mini 458 as a goon: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 78&start=0

and I won friends and enemies as a goon http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 20&start=0

So right now I am 50-50 as scum. In each game as scum I pulled at least one gambit.
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Post Post #787 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:43 am

Post by Adel »

Xylthixlm wrote:Adel, let me get you straight. You picked a random player day 1, and bandwagoned him to lynch without ever wondering whether or not he was actually scum. And you expect us to be happy about this?
do I care? no.
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Post Post #788 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:51 am

Post by Adel »

Jitsu wrote:
Adel wrote:he was agreeing with me, and I tend to give players that agree with me the public benefit of the doubt. I'm always skeptical.
OK, so what was it that changed your opinion of Oman from "I'm giving him the public benefit of the doubt" and being skeptical of him, to publicly declaring him "totally scum"?
I think the question you are really wanting to ask is "what made you publically state that Oman is "totally scum". There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.

*shrug* I didn't really think about it. I was more interested in getting him lynched than trying to figure out his alignment.
I have respect for your ability to gambit and get results. It's worked well for you in the past in some cases. In others, you could have easily cost the town the game. I've not read any of your scum games yet, but I can see how developing a reputation for acting scummy even as town can help you escape criticism as scum as well. Since you've apparently spent some of the town's currency by randomly lynching Opie with a weak case to try to out the scum and gain information, I want to know what return you've gotten on the investment. What did you learn from Day 1 regarding Opie's lynch?
It isn't perfectly clear... especially since I haven't reread since Guardian and opie's alignments were revealed.
Because I've seen this rush to reach conclusions before, when I was a vig. A death scene with a knife wound and a gunshot would does not mean that we are up against a mafia group and a sk. That supposed SK-kill could really be from a vig, a second mafia group, or werewolves. I advocate model angosticism.
OK, I agree with these statements, but it sounds like your answer here, referencing model agnosticism and listing the possibilities, is saying that it's just as likely to be one as any of the others, and it is unwise to assume one over the other, simply because knife kills are commonly attributed to an SK. Cautioning people that we may not be dealing with an SK and keep an open mind is sage advice, but then why did you say earlier that you also suspected that we have a Vig and not an SK?
Because I suspect that there may be a vig and not an sk. It seemed like everyone was rushing to the conclusion that there was a sk, and I felt like giving a little push in the oppisite direction.
Are you saying that this situation is close enough to the previous one that you believe the role is the same?
follow this link, and judge for yourself: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=559
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Post Post #789 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:09 am

Post by Jitsu »

Adel wrote:I think the question you are really wanting to ask is "what made you publically state that Oman is "totally scum". There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.
What made you publically state that Oman is "totally scum"?
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Post Post #790 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:32 am

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Adel wrote:There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.
Yeah, I don't think we should be letting slide players who habitually mislead the town.
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Post Post #791 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:14 am

Post by Adel »

Xylthixlm wrote:
Adel wrote:There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.
Yeah, I don't think we should be letting slide players who habitually mislead the town.
feel free to lynch me then. At least I generate information that can illuminate the alignment of other players.

@Jitsu, I hadn't seriously considered that he may be scum, so I went with it with enthuasism.
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Post Post #792 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:26 am

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I don't think we should be lynching Adel before CO. What she did was arguably not in the town's interests, but I don't think that those who joined the wagon are in any position to condemn her.
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Post Post #793 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:28 am

Post by Adel »

Erg0 wrote:What she did was arguably not in the town's interests
unless, of course, it worked and outed two scum.
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Post Post #794 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:34 am

Post by Erg0 »

Hence the use of the word "arguably", rather than "definitely".
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Post Post #795 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:14 am

Post by Jitsu »

Adel wrote:
Erg0 wrote:What she did was arguably not in the town's interests
unless, of course, it worked and outed two scum.
Which two?
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Post Post #796 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:52 am

Post by Jitsu »

@Oman, Xylthixlm, ChaosOmega: Adel alleges that the Opie wagon was random and designed to draw out scum. What are your responses to this?

@Oman, you seemed to cite Adel's case as your major reason for joining the wagon, and you never moved your vote all day. If Adel is telling the truth, it looks very bad for you. What do you have to say about that?

@Xylthixlm: When did you start to think that Opie might actually be town? Was it really not until post 682? What about that post convinced you that Opie was a townie being taken advantage of?

@ChaosOmega: I'll ask again. What was your reason for voting Opie? Lurking is one thing, but why as the cop did you toss a vote onto the bandwagon and not give a reason for it? If your goal was to blend into the background, why do that?
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Post Post #797 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 12:04 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Jitsu wrote:@Oman, Xylthixlm, ChaosOmega: Adel alleges that the Opie wagon was random and designed to draw out scum. What are your responses to this?
It doesn't exactly make it easier to analyze the game than a natural bandwagon would. As gambits go, pretty lousy. If the wagon was just to attract scum, why were Guardian and pickemgenius both on it?
Jitsu wrote:@Xylthixlm: When did you start to think that Opie might actually be town? Was it really not until post 682? What about that post convinced you that Opie was a townie being taken advantage of?
I was never convinced opie was scum. My vote was primarily to avoid a Guardian lynch, since I thought he was more likely to be town than opie.

Post 682 did push opie from neutral-scummy to neutral-town in my mind. A scum in that position would be unlikely to point out that his absence was notable. Overall, he just doesn't seem as panicked as I expect a scum about to be lynched to be. He didn't really have any reason to expect not to be lynched, so his post was likely to reflect his true feelings.

Also, at that point I could safely get off the opie wagon without risking a Guardian lynch, so I moved to ChaosOmega.
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Post Post #798 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:37 pm

Post by Oman »

Jistu wrote:@Oman, Xylthixlm, ChaosOmega: Adel alleges that the Opie wagon was random and designed to draw out scum. What are your responses to this?
I was getting town reads off Adel, so I trusted her.
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Post Post #799 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:50 pm

Post by Adel »

unvote, vote:Xylthixlm

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