Newbie 1821: The Newlywed Game [Game Over][

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Post Post #475 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:25 am

Post by Cabd »

Votecount 1-13


It is currently day one. With 9 players alive, it will take 5 votes to lynch or force a no-lynch.

Mr Moisto (3): darrenwoodward10, northsidegal, Huntress
CheekyTeeky(2): Nictis, Mr. Moisto
Nictis (2): CheekyTeeky, Plus Minus,
Huntress (1): WhyMafia


Not Voting (1): RadiantCowbells

The deadline for day one was set at 2 weeks from the start of the day. The current timer can be seen here: (expired on 2017-09-14 22:53:26)
Last edited by Cabd on Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #476 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:31 am

Post by Nictis »

In post 469, CheekyTeeky wrote:
Nictis, save yourself some energy and stop pushing an uncounter-claimed town PR.
If you are innocent then please convince us that you are town.
Not fighting for yourself is anti-town.
In post 456, CheekyTeeky wrote:
I forgive you for still pushing me. Reminds me of my first game where I kept pushing the conf!cop lol.
Spoiler:
Deaf to my points on nictis. rc and WhyMafia haven't responded to my posts. So yeah I feel like trying to pick apart rc's character post on me would also be ignored. It's over the top to say you guys are thinking about voting me based on something noone has asked me to respond to? Either way, if my play style looks over the top and offends you then sorry, but it's how cheeky is.
I feel like I should respond to rc's bs dialogue if he's selling it to you guys; but at this point I think you guys are deaf to me... so if anyone has genuine suspicions on points of my play instead of trying to railroad me without giving me opportunity to respond (for being too confident?): then I'm happy to discuss rationally.


Here's Hypocrisy. Next is behavior.
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Post Post #477 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:33 am

Post by Plus Minus »

Not BP, nor Doctor.

Nictis, why do you insist on exploring the extent of power role interactions? I'm talking beyond the ToS justification and beyond 'learning how this game works'. As in, in the hypothetical that you are town, what advantage do you gain to:
A. Ask the question with the expectation to receive the mod's answer.
B. Have that information disclosed to the general public?

My issue is, and has been, you as hypothetical doctor would never post 227, you as hypothetical non-doctor town should never post 227, therefore why would you not be scum? Following up to that, why would hypothetical town, after being initially chastised for trying to publicly glean information that benefits scum more than town, proceed to do so AGAIN? You can try to argue that scum has no logical reason to do either as well, but the simplest explanation I can come up with for the origin of those two posts is that you slipped up as newb-scum, and are now trying to mask it by taking the idiot-town route.

My initial vote on you was for 227, 455 does nothing to make me feel like the vote should move.


In other news, interested that Whymafia is attempting to be a second RC this close to the end of Day 1. Not sure if noise, contesting for power, or preparation for Day 2.
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Post Post #478 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:35 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

So just some general theory talk since I don't think it'll be covered by anyone else:

1)
Why the big push on Cheeky?

When I play scum I like to play town leader. Contrary to popular belief you do not generally get townpoints by playing town leader as scum, you actually expend them: but the flipside is you get an immense level of control over the gamestate and can often just lynch your threats instead of nightkilling them. As Cheeky was vying with me for the position of town leader she was the number one slot I was interested in reading and there were a lot of ways she was doing it that felt disingenuous and she was buckling down for a fight and given a lot of her tells indicated that she was a lot more experienced than she claimed to be, I didn't think she'd ever get lynched if I didn't lynch her. So I went after her really hard. I was pretty sure she was scum, but a lot of the fervor was brought about by thinking that she was just far more of a threat than anyone else and even if town I wasn't super happy about the direction that she was going so I sort of wanted her out of the way. That was far more of an afterthought to the scumread I had on her and don't misrepresent it: but it was there.

2)
What exactly is the purpose of the claim?

If she is in fact a doctor, there is guaranteed to be neither another doctor nor a bulletproof nor a jailkeeper in the setup. On top of that, if there's a cop it's reasonable that she exists, and if there's a tracker she is guaranteed to be town assuming no counterclaim. By doing the counterclaim, we can make her extremely likely to be town if uncced and obviously lynch her if she is counterclaimed. In doing so, we're also not putting our own major PRs at risk: in the newbie setup the 'true' powers are the Jailkeeper/Cop/Tracker to which the Doctor and BP are comparatively far weaker: it's worth pointing out that Doctor >>>>>> bulletproof, but it holds true and by not outing the specific PR we lose no information but deny scum information.

3) Why not have the jailkeeper claim?


Because they don't have to. There is guaranteed to be exactly 1 tracker/cop/jk in the setup. The jailkeeper's flip confirms Cheeky as scum and they can counterclaim whenever they want to score a free lynch on Cheeky. Scum are also incapable of claiming jailkeeper without immediately being CCed and creating a 1v1, which is generally super suboptimal for them. So the jailkeeper can wait till LyLO if they wish and then counterclaim and Cheeky is just as confirmed scum because there's no possibility of the counterclaim being fake unless her scumpartner opted to defend her: but that confirms BOTH scum as scum if we correctly read the real jailkeeper as town. So there's little to lose from delaying the claim, and as the Jailkeeper in a setup with no roleblocker is a very strong power role that constitutes the entirety of our non-scumhunting power, we don't want to have them claim and die early on.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #479 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:38 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

So.

Cheeky is uncced, doesn't look like she'll be CCed, I'll give her her space from now. She is likely to be confirmed town if she is town.
I am town from my role PM.
Darren does not seem like scum. He feels invested in his pushes, some of the way he's acted has felt really towny, he looks like he's scumhunting. I don't agree with his reads or some of his play, but town.
Mr Moisto has said some extremely transparently town things. Worth noting that Cheeky agrees with me there.

That leaves us 5 players:

PlusMinus
Whymafia
Nictis
Huntress
Northsidegal

And in the universe where all of the above are town, which is very likely given my confidence in these reads (besides Cheeky but we'll figure out if she's scum later) there's 2/5 scum here.
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Post Post #480 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:41 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

FFS nictis. I guess I only have myself to blame. Looks like I got in towns way instead of helping it to victory.

Rc that was surprisingly scummy of you to assume I'd last to lylo
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Post Post #481 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:43 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I won't call her 100% town but I also do not wish to lynch NorthSideGal today. If she's scum she is doing a fantastic job: her play around Cheeky being doctor felt super town motivated. Her asking for prods early in the game felt like she wasn't just town but competent town trying to be systematic and read every slot rather than just get caught on whatever comes up. Her reaction to my scumread on her for jokes that she made felt like a townier reaction.

I can't say she's 100% town as much as I wish I could but I would say she's like >90% town. I'm not touching her today.

So that leaves

PlusMinus
Nictis
Huntress
Whymafia
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #482 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:43 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 480, CheekyTeeky wrote:FFS nictis. I guess I only have myself to blame. Looks like I got in towns way instead of helping it to victory.

Rc that was surprisingly scummy of you to assume I'd last to lylo
It wasn't scummy of me at all. If you die I don't have to think about it at all, I'm going based on the reasoning that I will eventually have to think about it.
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Post Post #483 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:45 am

Post by WhyMafia »

Looking at plus minus ISO
forgot hey we're in the game lol
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Post Post #484 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:46 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

I like how it feels like rc and NSG are looking at leaving me alive for a mislynch down the road. If I'm alive d2 lynch me, don't let me get to LyLo.
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Post Post #485 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:46 am

Post by WhyMafia »

Quick skim: I like him
RC would you be interested in huntress?
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Post Post #486 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:47 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

In post 484, CheekyTeeky wrote:I like how it feels like rc and NSG are looking at leaving me alive for a mislynch down the road. If I'm alive d2 lynch me, don't let me get to LyLo.
I explicitly said we're never lynching you unless the PR is confirmed to be cop and we have a goon flip. I wouldn't vote you in 5 way even if we were both alive there.
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Post Post #487 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:48 am

Post by WhyMafia »

In post 478, RadiantCowbells wrote:So just some general theory talk since I don't think it'll be covered by anyone else:

1)
Why the big push on Cheeky?

When I play scum I like to play town leader. Contrary to popular belief you do not generally get townpoints by playing town leader as scum, you actually expend them: but the flipside is you get an immense level of control over the gamestate and can often just lynch your threats instead of nightkilling them. As Cheeky was vying with me for the position of town leader she was the number one slot I was interested in reading and there were a lot of ways she was doing it that felt disingenuous and she was buckling down for a fight and given a lot of her tells indicated that she was a lot more experienced than she claimed to be, I didn't think she'd ever get lynched if I didn't lynch her. So I went after her really hard. I was pretty sure she was scum, but a lot of the fervor was brought about by thinking that she was just far more of a threat than anyone else and even if town I wasn't super happy about the direction that she was going so I sort of wanted her out of the way. That was far more of an afterthought to the scumread I had on her and don't misrepresent it: but it was there.

2)
What exactly is the purpose of the claim?

If she is in fact a doctor, there is guaranteed to be neither another doctor nor a bulletproof nor a jailkeeper in the setup. On top of that, if there's a cop it's reasonable that she exists, and if there's a tracker she is guaranteed to be town assuming no counterclaim. By doing the counterclaim, we can make her extremely likely to be town if uncced and obviously lynch her if she is counterclaimed. In doing so, we're also not putting our own major PRs at risk: in the newbie setup the 'true' powers are the Jailkeeper/Cop/Tracker to which the Doctor and BP are comparatively far weaker: it's worth pointing out that Doctor >>>>>> bulletproof, but it holds true and by not outing the specific PR we lose no information but deny scum information.

3) Why not have the jailkeeper claim?


Because they don't have to. There is guaranteed to be exactly 1 tracker/cop/jk in the setup. The jailkeeper's flip confirms Cheeky as scum and they can counterclaim whenever they want to score a free lynch on Cheeky. Scum are also incapable of claiming jailkeeper without immediately being CCed and creating a 1v1, which is generally super suboptimal for them. So the jailkeeper can wait till LyLO if they wish and then counterclaim and Cheeky is just as confirmed scum because there's no possibility of the counterclaim being fake unless her scumpartner opted to defend her: but that confirms BOTH scum as scum if we correctly read the real jailkeeper as town. So there's little to lose from delaying the claim, and as the Jailkeeper in a setup with no roleblocker is a very strong power role that constitutes the entirety of our non-scumhunting power, we don't want to have them claim and die early on.
Wait a second .... are you suggesting that JK should wait to CC until LYLO? That's horrible Bc if cheeky told us the truth, then we could have scum CC
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Post Post #488 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:49 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

You're too obvious rc.
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Post Post #489 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:49 am

Post by WhyMafia »

I don't like RC's post that I quoted at all
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Post Post #490 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:50 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I'm obvious town Cheeky and I don't understand why you don't see that. Half the reason I fosed you was that your vote felt retaliatory.

So let's assume that all of the above are town, which feels reasonable enough to me right now. We're looking at

PlusMinus/Nictis


PlusMinus/Huntress
PlusMinus/Whymafia
Huntress/Nictis
Huntress/Whymafia
Nictis/WhyMafia
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Post Post #491 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:51 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

Cop/tracker shouldn't claim until they find scum.
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Post Post #492 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:51 am

Post by WhyMafia »

In post 490, RadiantCowbells wrote:I'm obvious town Cheeky and I don't understand why you don't see that. Half the reason I fosed you was that your vote felt retaliatory.

So let's assume that all of the above are town, which feels reasonable enough to me right now. We're looking at

PlusMinus/Nictis


PlusMinus/Huntress
PlusMinus/Whymafia
Huntress/Nictis
Huntress/Whymafia
Nictis/WhyMafia
You are not obvious town
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Post Post #493 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:52 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I have not ever advocated that the cop and tracker should claim. They'll come out eventually by nightkill or claim and then we can sort out your slot better.
You are not obvious town
The best surprise is next to come.
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Post Post #494 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:52 am

Post by CheekyTeeky »

WTF are you talking about.

VOTE: RadiantCowbells
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Post Post #495 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:53 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

It's a quote from spiderman that I thought would be funny. I'm not claiming PR, relax.
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Post Post #496 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:53 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

Not that there isn't a big -surprise- coming at the end of this book, but it's not that surprise.
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Post Post #497 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:57 am

Post by Plus Minus »

My issue with discussing power role interactions publicly is my (probably mistaken) faith that those holding power roles do the mental gymnastics of claim/counterclaim timing in their heads to maximize their personal advantage while minimizing scum's passive advantage of open information. For the same reason, why discuss lylo tactics of hypo-JK now and not tomorrow?

Also is this what it's like to post when people are active people keep dropping posts when I try to hit submit.
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Post Post #498 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:58 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

So, of the four remaining players:

Huntress's ISO doesn't really give me a strong opinion on who wouldn't be scum with them.
Neither does, as it happens, plus minus. It's worth noting that I think that Plusminus is SIGNIFICANTLY less likely to be scum than the others, but significantly more likely to be scum than NSG. Maybe.

Hi Plusminus!
For the same reason, why discuss lylo tactics of hypo-JK now and not tomorrow?
Because I am killed night 1 in significantly over 50% of the games that I am in and there may be no one left to explain it to you honestly if Huntress is scum.
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Post Post #499 (ISO) » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:01 am

Post by Plus Minus »

I expected the NK D1 response to be honest, didn't know your personal statistic though. Debating if the original post was preparatory for this. Advocate of Occam's razor, so I suppose you're town for now.

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