Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

[skitter30]

I don't think that's a viable endgame plan for scum!osuka though. Why does he push BV instead of RM here? I don't think BV is ever getting lynched, so this isn't helping him, even if he forces a no-lynch.

[aphix]

I don't think RM or BV really matters much. I don't think RM is on the table either.

[aphix]

The other thing is ... if Osuka is town ... it makes it much much harder to actually lynch scum without him here. town!osuka voting bv makes it so the other four town players have to come to an agreement some sort of agreement.

And, the thing is, if it gets him town points ... Like you have decided to say he's probably coming from town there ... that's PLENTY of scum motivation in the position he's at ... Like ... Like, if there is a no lynch, maybe we go back to archwing and osuka tomorrow, maybe osuka earns town points and gets out of the lynch pool. It doesn't even really give town any more time. As tomorrow isn't a bad no lynch option if there is a mislynch today.

[skitter30]

I think RM is much more lynchable than BV is.

His last post, the way he just kinda went 'fuck it, I'm voting BV' kinda makes me think town who is voting for their scumread and doesn't care how it makes them look.

Or it can be a scum AtE thing and I'm bad at reading that.

But I think that makes him look really bad. I'm having a hard time seeing scum!him do something that is just so obviously bad when it doesn't really get him anything? I'm having trouble seeing what scum!osuka gains from that, but it makes sense to me as frustrated!town.

Like, I'm kinda seeing it as a last hurrah from town voting a scumread before they replace out.

Also, I saw archwing online earlier but he didn't post.

Also, you're not in a NA timezone, right?

[aphix]

I'm PST, it's 803pm right now. I won't be here at DL, don't see myself changing my vote either.

[skitter30]

Huh, thats three of us lol. I thought you were in Europe or something.

Yeah, I'm going to be asleep at deadline, but I'll change to Osuka before I head to sleep if I have to. That's still only three votes.

It doesn't seem like osuka will be around. Archwing I'm not sure but I wanna say EST. Wherever he is, he was definitely online before and hasn't posted and hasn't voted. RM is not in NA (UK maybe?) and I dunno if he'll be around before then.

[skitter30]

I don't know if a lynch is possible given the current votes and people's likelihood to be online depending on their timezone.

[osuka]

skitter, it's not that i'm not enjoying the game - it's that i'm swamped with work and school and life, and I just don't have the energy i'd like to put to make this game what it could be. I also really enjoyed it while i had the time, and i don't plan on leaving ms anytime soon

i am going to be around but i think archwing is town so i'm not willing to lynch that slot. A no lynch isn't catastrophic, considering mafia didn't get a kill n1 because of 1bp. A mislynch is prob worse but feel free to talk me out of that

[BlackVoid]

Back and catching up. I saw Osuka's vote on me on my phone during a work break. Initial instinct was to think of it as a towntell. But I still hate that he claims that I'm "somehow" scumreading him when I explained exactly why in extensive detail - so even if he disagrees, he knows why. I also considered that he could be doing it just for the towncred as a last ditch attempt. It really does make me wonder if I was wrong though. I'm torn between switching over to Archwing and just wanting to lynch Osuka because if we reward anti-town play and he wins as scum, that would be pretty awful. I asked him multiple times to explain the dissonance in his DP read vs others and he hasn't been able to give anything.

There's like zero motivation for scum!osuka to start a BV thing here when he can just go along with Archwing and push RM tomorrow.

I'm the one that's tunneling him though. He's got a better chance getting random to vote me in lylo than the other way around.

[BlackVoid]

That latest post really makes me think he's scum though.

[BlackVoid]

Why do you think Archwing is town, Osuka?

[osuka]

Meta mostly. That’s also Paul’s slot so the slot is prob town even though my read on archwing himself is relatively weak, given the relatively short amount of time he’s been here for

I’m gonna go to sleep now because I have to sleep - I’m sick and I have work in the morning. Sorry

[BlackVoid]

Why? Paul's meta is something me and skitter discussed pretty extensively so "Paul is town based on meta" sort of ignores all of that. What of Paul's game comes across as his towngame to you? Because right now I have it down to either you or Archwing so you're either wrong or you are scum that knows he's town and I'm trying to figure out which it is.

[skitter30]

skitter, it's not that i'm not enjoying the game - it's that i'm swamped with work and school and life, and I just don't have the energy i'd like to put to make this game what it could be. I also really enjoyed it while i had the time, and i don't plan on leaving ms anytime soon

i am going to be around but i think archwing is town so i'm not willing to lynch that slot. A no lynch isn't catastrophic, considering mafia didn't get a kill n1 because of 1bp. A mislynch is prob worse but feel free to talk me out of that

First paragraph: I hope real life calms down for you

Second paragraph: really kinda scummy. Why is archwing town? Why aren't you willing to lynch him? A no-lynch is bad. The only thing it accomplishes is getting me dead, and everyone alive is in the exact same spot tomorrow minus a confirmed townie. My death doesn't even give any useful info since I'm the obvious night-kill here. Why are you willing to no-lynch instead of mislynching?

P-edit: go to sleep and feel better!

[osuka]

A no lunch is also not catastrophic because it puts us on a 3 person lylo instead of a 4 person mylo (where there must also be consensus, but there’s more room for a fuck up to happen)

I believe a no lynch now isn’t unreasonable, especially since it’ll probably come down to that if we mislynch today.

[osuka]

Why? Paul's meta is something me and skitter discussed pretty extensively so "Paul is town based on meta" sort of ignores all of that. What of Paul's game comes across as his towngame to you? Because right now I have it down to either you or Archwing so you're either wrong or you are scum that knows he's town and I'm trying to figure out which it is.

The truth doesn’t happen to agree with what you “have down”, so you might want to reevaluate that

Also, I didn’t just say Paul’s read was meta. Nice misrep though
He was genuine and made good points to advance the game in kind of a reckless way that’s very telling of town Paul

You seem to be full of shit and that’s the last thing I’ll say before I go to sleep

[BlackVoid]

W/e. I really do hope you replace out if we no lynch.

[skitter30]

*Thinking*

I think, given the current gamestate and reads, 5 player day 4 is a lot more advantageous for scum!osuka than 4 way mylo.

4 way mylo kinda forces scum!osuka to go against BV (I don't think he wins this though . . .), or scum!archwing to go against RM, depending on the lynch. At least the choice is kinda clear; it'll set up an obvious conflict and kinda force two slots against each other. If osuka flips town, I think attention turns to archwing/RM. If archwing flips town, attention turns to osuka/BV/RM. But it makes the lynchpool smaller at least.

5 way, without clearing one of osuka/archwing by flipping them, leaves all the sketchy people alive. Like, no one's lynchpools get smaller, and we're basically in the same position as today. Still way too many scummy people to deal with, and the osuka/BV thing will fester, as will the archwing/RM thing, and we won't have enough time to lynch everyone.

I don't really see a way that benefits town, tbh, but I see it benefiting scum.

[skitter30]

I don't really get why town is pushing a no-lynch here tbh

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, basically I think he wants Archwing alive because if he's scum, then Archwing is a huge distraction. Also, the game going to 3P means that one townie making a mistake is all it takes to hand scum the win. We're here now and we're arguing against Aphix-scum. But in a hypothetical Osuka/RM/Aphix lylo, RM voting Aphix isn't at all unlikely. The game changes a bit because it takes just one bad vote for town to lose. Also, if Osuka feels like Archwing is someone he can pocket, he'd want him alive for support.

[skitter30]

Why? Paul's meta is something me and skitter discussed pretty extensively so "Paul is town based on meta" sort of ignores all of that. What of Paul's game comes across as his towngame to you? Because right now I have it down to either you or Archwing so you're either wrong or you are scum that knows he's town and I'm trying to figure out which it is.

The truth doesn’t happen to agree with what you “have down”, so you might want to reevaluate that

Also, I didn’t just say Paul’s read was meta. Nice misrep though
He was genuine and made good points to advance the game in kind of a reckless way that’s very telling of town Paul

You seem to be full of shit and that’s the last thing I’ll say before I go to sleep

And this post is kinda weird?

If Osuka is town, and so is Archwing, than who is scum? According to osuka, BV is. That first line is a rather odd thing to say to someone you think is scum. You don't tell scum to reevaluate? Town needs to reevaluate. Scum doesn't have anything to evaluate.

First line feels more like someone trying to convince someone else (a townie) that their reads are off, and is less like someone telling someone else that they're scum pushing a false narrative. It doesn't really match with the fact that he's pushing scum!BV.

I'm not sure if that made sense though. I can try explaining that again if necessary.

Second part is saying that Paul's read isn't based solely on meta, but the next line is basically a meta read.

[BlackVoid]

5 hours, 45 minutes. Randomidget disappering and Archwing not showing up is super-annoying. He's not even voting anyone.

@Archwing, if you show up before deadline, please vote Osuka to avoid no lynch.

[skitter30]

BV, what do you think about what I said in 1045? Does that make sense?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I understand what you are saying.

This no lynch push confirmed my suspicions that he just wanted more leverage with 5 players alive minus you. I wish I didn't wait till the final day to put down a vote and people just not showing up at a critical time is really annoying me.

[skitter30]

Yeah, it kinda annoys me too.

VOTE: osuka

If a lynch happens and this flips town, my dying read is archwing.