TBD Mafia 2 [game over]

[Llamarble]

P. edit:
Lycan's wagon stalled at 9 because... He replaced out. He was probably going to die, especially considering how even with how active I have been the slot is still at risk.
Maybe people townread him and his wagon built slowly because, you know, his posting was actually rather town and scum parked on it and votes do have gravitational pull on other votes but that does work slowly. He took a pretty independent look into the day's events, found Vax interested him, and because town actually care whether anything comes of their beliefs he tried to push other people onto Vax / prevent Toby from being a distraction. He even took a town "I don't care what other people think and I'm entitled to disrespect people for I am Righteous" type of attitude.

VOTE: Bulbazak
I can't escape the feeling that the way today's voting has worked points to Bulbascum.

[Desperado]

The fact that Desperado suddenly showed up to interfere in the discussion between me and ChessKid, and that he also showed up on your scumreads after that only reinforces that belief (even though I agree he has been scummy).

how is this a scumtell and not an i-was-in-the-first-iteration-of-this-game tell?

[Llamarble]

I mean, for survival reasons I am functionally voting Mario and Bulba right now.
I don't really believe in a flashwagon on someone else. Mayyyybe on Slysly who may have been playing a "Bulba and Lycan are town I'mma hang out on other wagons while one of them gets lynched" game.
Certainly the fakeability is there for Slysly's posting. If it had been "I don't think Lycan or Bulba are town; let's try hard to start something else" I'd have been happier about that.
I guess ActionDan had a similar post, and AD also voted screen later, thinking Bulbatown overall but disliking 953, which, yeah, was pretty bad.
Slysly vote is reasonable. Bulbatown -> Screenscum makes a lot of sense for reads + votes. So Dan is looking better.
Focusing on figuring out the path to manipulate votes to get the lynch you want early in the day instead of focusing on reading the game does not reflect well on Bulba at all.
I'd go so far as to say counting votes to identify which wagon can be made to work (especially so early) is very strongly in the Things Scum Do Considerably More Than Town category.
I hope people are around this evening to move votes as needed.

[Vaxkiller]

Vax why do you want me dead?

Really? I have to spell it out for you? 1 less scum.

This is a bad answer. Please try again.

If I guess correctly will you vote yourself?

2 less scum?

[Vaxkiller]

After reading post 1750 I gotta re-read Bulba tonight.

[MarioManiac4]

Vax why do you want me dead?

Really? I have to spell it out for you? 1 less scum.

This is a bad answer. Please try again.

If I guess correctly will you vote yourself?

2 less scum?

VOTE: Vaxkiller

[MarioManiac4]

You know what it is I want and you know that it is a perfectly reasonable thing to ask for. Stop dancing around and give it to me.

[Llamarble]

I guess my working hypotheses are
Non-Bulba:
Slysly + Screen + probably Mario + ?hardertoreadstrongplayers (Vecna / desp possible)
Bulbascum:
Bulba + Eddie + various possible

I leaned away from Bulba + Mario, I think because of Bulba acting like he :knew: Mario was town? That sounds right.

[Llamarble]

Can we like, not lynch me today? I really wanna figure this out.

[Bulbazak]

Focusing on figuring out the path to manipulate votes to get the lynch you want early in the day instead of focusing on reading the game does not reflect well on Bulba at all.
I'd go so far as to say counting votes to identify which wagon can be made to work (especially so early) is very strongly in the Things Scum Do Considerably More Than Town category.

Knowing the game state enough to know why certain players are voting the way they are and how they might change their vote over time is not scummy. It just means I'm paying attention. At that point in time, the major shift onto me hadn't taken place yet, and I was still trying to get some pressure onto Lycan to get a better read. I did not feel in any danger, and I was trying to explain to Dreal why not and why his vanity wagon wasn't going to go anywhere, while trying to appeal to his scumread of Lycan to, again, apply more pressure.

And it is a very useful skill to recognize when a wagon or read isn't viable to be pushed, especially as you get closer to endgame. So while I recognize that Chess and Chickadee are both most assuredly scum, I also recognize that the chances of steering a wagon around onto them are slim to none this late in the day. It's a matter of reading the game closely, and it's actually widely used as both alignments, not to manipulate votes, but to say "this is how things are going to play out based on what I've seen in the thread and what I know about the other players.". The difference is that scum do so much more subtly.

[Bulbazak]

Now, as an additional example, here's Ginngie from Night and Day:

NOW

That means with Alisae moving off of texcat, the TB wagon is now tied for the largest wagon.

This means, there is no longer the excuse to say this is a vanity wagon as it is now the top contender to be lynched today.

Alisae thank you very much, t'was a very important vote tbh.

Now, that means we need 6 more people to get this thing through.

nancy will probs be slightly stubborn but regardless of alignment she is willing to sheep me cuz lolz so that's another vote.

We need 5 more and I fully believe I'll be able to convince QR of what's up because it's a simple demand and they're not pushing anything hardcore.

The last 4, I'd say I get support from Titus after quick talking too and I also expect a little stubborness from Kelvin but an understanding at my point as into why I'm saying he is scum is true, thus two more votes on the board.

Now we get to L-2 and the fun happens. One of the non-voters will most likely join this wagon like Eddie who I can personally talk too or BTD who is lurkfesting to the point where they might just sheep up their bootstraps.

If that doesn't work out then Bulba will come around even though he'll be wary of Titus, the great part is that this interaction will be the important bit for later on in the game.

but yee, the last person will be any one person, couldn't say but Im okay with cuz they're gonna know what's up.

So yeah, that's my battle plan so just be prepared and if you want to save time just vote early, ballots will online start of midnight.

She was town.

[Srceenplay]

B

Explain this for me and everyone else please.

[Srceenplay]

Let's try that again

Bulbatown -> Screenscum makes a lot of sense for reads + votes

This is what I want explained please.

[Llamarble]

Ah, I regard all the other players on Bulba's wagon, aside from you Screen, as very likely to be town.
So if he's town, that looks very bad for you.

And as for your reply Bulba, a copguilty doesn't always result in a scumflip; counterexamples do exist, but it sure increases the odds quite a bit.
As a townie, what do you care about the most? Identifying scum. Once you have a very solid read, you can think about how to get them lynched.
As a scumbag, what do you care about the most? Making sure that at the end of the day you or a teammate don't end up lynched.
The primary information scum are interested in is other people's reads (specifically how they will vote and how voting is likely to go).
Then they use the scum voting block, combined with the latent town on town violence they've identified, to make a mislynch happen.
I won't deny that having some awareness of where things are going is useful as town.
But for scum it is THE thing that they actually can think about and take interest in. The rest is just theater for them.

[Srceenplay]

I thought I saw somewhere you said me and bulb were scum team.
Maybe that was someone else.
Someone else remember seeing that somewhere?

[Bulbazak]

And the point fails, because you're pulling an example from earlier in the game where I tell Dreal that my wagon isn't going to work and why. Essentially, I told Dreal that his was the only real vote on me. Desp was RVS, and by extension, would most likely be moved, and Lycan was a counter-vote. So telling Dreal "Hey, this wagon on me is going to fail and here's why. Now why don't you make yourself useful and jump on your other scumread." is not scummy, especially when I was trying to apply pressure on the Lycan slot for the sole purpose of reading him better. You're essentially trying to claim that I tried to anticipate where votes would go to try to get a Lycan lynch and disband my own wagon, even though the votes that started the process of making my wagon a serious one hadn't even landed yet. Heck, Desp hadn't even switched to Lycan, and Eddie had just recently joined on my say so. So this is less "trying to manipulate votes" and more trying to increase the pressure on a hard to read slot to see what will happen.

[Llamarble]

You're not wrong that scum would generally be more subtle about their use of that information.
Considering the wagon on Lycan seems to have had its roots in "let's just try to stack some votes together on someone, anyone, and maybe something good will happen" I'm feeling less surprised that it might stall after 9 votes and a replacement.
I take some issue with you voting me instead of trying harder to lynch other people if your feelings on my slot are pressure -> meh result while you believe Chickadee and Chesskid are scum.
But I see you did vote Screen, which as I've mentioned is a good vote if you are town.
If you and me really are both town, the Src - Slysly team starts to look good.

If people want to just hang around this evening, if we have a lot of people in the thread it's still possible to wagon somebody completely new with the power of deadline.

[Srceenplay]

Wagon chess?

[Bulbazak]

I take some issue with you voting me instead of trying harder to lynch other people if your feelings on my slot are pressure -> meh result

I really haven't seen anything from you that leapt out as particularly towny. I mean, I don't think it's super scummy either, just meh overall, and I don't think anything you've said here would be outside your range as scum. Right now, I'm trying to get my bearings on the rest of the game state, and your lynch would shed a lot of information there. I know I'm missing scum, and I know the distribution is likely heavily weighted on both of our wagons. The question is in what quantities. I'm thinking no more than 2 on me regardless. If you're scum, then 1 is either bussing or off, gut lean on bussing. If you're not scum, then it's a matter of analyzing the wagon and figuring out if 1 or 2 were sitting there. Overall, I'm thinking we just get a clearer picture of how the game looks.

while you believe Chickadee and Chesskid are scum.

And they have more than enough support to make a lynch today impossible. That's a task that is best suited for another day, and I know it's going to be a fight.

But I see you did vote Screen, which as I've mentioned is a good vote if you are town.

I'm not sure how I feel about Screen anymore. I didn't really like his vote or some of his actions, but I also think that his explanation is somewhat plausible from town.

[Llamarble]

Chess has been pro-town today. He's a good player and so forth, but I think he's town.

I guess my list of valid lynches for today right now looks like (More ???s = more exploration required so probably leave to day 2)
Vecna?? (I want to reexamine with a cooler head. Good player requiring deeper analysis)
Desp?? (Not much content yet; good player)
Snarky? (haven't explored enough but sketchy)
Random? (haven't explored much but sketchy)
Srceen (makes a lot of sense if Bulba town)
Slysly (Makes sense either way, really, but the "scum staying off both wagons on townies" reading was really working for me)
Bulba (very town wagon is probably the best reason but considering the other big wagon was also on town, maybe scum wanted to lynch bulba tomorrow after Lycan??)
Mario (Simply hasn't done anything that convinces me otherwise + works with variety of teams)

[MarioManiac4]

why are you pushing lynches on people because they haven't conviced you they're town?

[MarioManiac4]

I could flashwagon SlySly.

[ActionDan]

same

[Llamarble]

My range as scum is that while there aren't many particular posts I'm incapable of producing, the thread bombardment of looking through everything over and over I don't think I've successfully faked.
Like the number of different possibilities I've considered and things I've gone back and forth on in under 48 hours in this game, I don't believe I can fake that.
I've gotten excited about things that might be the solution, that might bring clarity and then other things show up that contradict them and I admit to myself that I don't have it figured out yet move on to considering other possibilities.
Like Bulba you made a good counterargument to my reading of your 'this is where this wagon will go' post, and now I am looking at everything else again, trying to assemble a new picture that makes sense.
I dunno, I just don't see how people can think I'm scum here. Usually when I get like this, yeah, one or two people are tunneled on me but usually the town at large sees me for what I am, wearing my heart on my sleeve and trying to figure the game out.

Mario, when I read peoples' ISOs I usually see a lot of stuff that would be difficult for me, or for them to fake as scum.
So my reads have a tendency to initialize on whoever doesn't look too hard to fake is scummy (and yes, this does mean I tend to pursue lurky players D1, which usually works out because it makes them get active and do things and then we can reevaluate and maybe try another wagon and create a pro-town day 1)

[Srceenplay]

I mean, for survival reasons I am functionally voting Mario and Bulba right now.
I don't really believe in a flashwagon on someone else. Mayyyybe on Slysly who may have been playing a "Bulba and Lycan are town I'mma hang out on other wagons while one of them gets lynched" game.
Certainly the fakeability is there for Slysly's posting. If it had been "I don't think Lycan or Bulba are town; let's try hard to start something else" I'd have been happier about that.
I guess ActionDan had a similar post, and AD also voted screen later, thinking Bulbatown overall but disliking 953, which, yeah, was pretty bad.
Slysly vote is reasonable. Bulbatown -> Screenscum makes a lot of sense for reads + votes. So Dan is looking better.
Focusing on figuring out the path to manipulate votes to get the lynch you want early in the day instead of focusing on reading the game does not reflect well on Bulba at all.
I'd go so far as to say counting votes to identify which wagon can be made to work (especially so early) is very strongly in the Things Scum Do Considerably More Than Town category.
I hope people are around this evening to move votes as needed.

Ah, I regard all the other players on Bulba's wagon, aside from you Screen, as very likely to be town.
So if he's town, that looks very bad for you.

And as for your reply Bulba, a copguilty doesn't always result in a scumflip; counterexamples do exist, but it sure increases the odds quite a bit.
As a townie, what do you care about the most? Identifying scum. Once you have a very solid read, you can think about how to get them lynched.
As a scumbag, what do you care about the most? Making sure that at the end of the day you or a teammate don't end up lynched.
The primary information scum are interested in is other people's reads (specifically how they will vote and how voting is likely to go).
Then they use the scum voting block, combined with the latent town on town violence they've identified, to make a mislynch happen.
I won't deny that having some awareness of where things are going is useful as town.
But for scum it is THE thing that they actually can think about and take interest in. The rest is just theater for them.

You're not wrong that scum would generally be more subtle about their use of that information.
Considering the wagon on Lycan seems to have had its roots in "let's just try to stack some votes together on someone, anyone, and maybe something good will happen" I'm feeling less surprised that it might stall after 9 votes and a replacement.
I take some issue with you voting me instead of trying harder to lynch other people if your feelings on my slot are pressure -> meh result while you believe Chickadee and Chesskid are scum.
But I see you did vote Screen, which as I've mentioned is a good vote if you are town.
If you and me really are both town, the Src - Slysly team starts to look good.

If people want to just hang around this evening, if we have a lot of people in the thread it's still possible to wagon somebody completely new with the power of deadline.

Chess has been pro-town today. He's a good player and so forth, but I think he's town.

I guess my list of valid lynches for today right now looks like (More ???s = more exploration required so probably leave to day 2)
Vecna?? (I want to reexamine with a cooler head. Good player requiring deeper analysis)
Desp?? (Not much content yet; good player)
Snarky? (haven't explored enough but sketchy)
Random? (haven't explored much but sketchy)
Srceen (makes a lot of sense if Bulba town)
Slysly (Makes sense either way, really, but the "scum staying off both wagons on townies" reading was really working for me)
Bulba (very town wagon is probably the best reason but considering the other big wagon was also on town, maybe scum wanted to lynch bulba tomorrow after Lycan??)
Mario (Simply hasn't done anything that convinces me otherwise + works with variety of teams)

My range as scum is that while there aren't many particular posts I'm incapable of producing, the thread bombardment of looking through everything over and over I don't think I've successfully faked.
Like the number of different possibilities I've considered and things I've gone back and forth on in under 48 hours in this game, I don't believe I can fake that.
I've gotten excited about things that might be the solution, that might bring clarity and then other things show up that contradict them and I admit to myself that I don't have it figured out yet move on to considering other possibilities.
Like Bulba you made a good counterargument to my reading of your 'this is where this wagon will go' post, and now I am looking at everything else again, trying to assemble a new picture that makes sense.
I dunno, I just don't see how people can think I'm scum here. Usually when I get like this, yeah, one or two people are tunneled on me but usually the town at large sees me for what I am, wearing my heart on my sleeve and trying to figure the game out.

Mario, when I read peoples' ISOs I usually see a lot of stuff that would be difficult for me, or for them to fake as scum.
So my reads have a tendency to initialize on whoever doesn't look too hard to fake is scummy (and yes, this does mean I tend to pursue lurky players D1, which usually works out because it makes them get active and do things and then we can reevaluate and maybe try another wagon and create a pro-town day 1)

You talk so much, you are making my voice hurt.