LoL eSports Discussion

[zoraster]

someone on reddit did the math for group placements. It looks correct:

IF WE Wins:

FNC: 50% A, 50% B
C9: 25% A, 75% C
WE: 37.5% B, 62.5% D
FB/ONE: 25% A, 12.5% B, 25% C, 37.5% D

Fnatic pulling pretty hard for Group B. C9 has an uphill battle either way, but Group A would be a much better draw.



From a competition point of view, I'd like to see C9 in Group A, Fnatic Group B, FB in Group C, and WE in Group D. I think that evens out the competition level the most of any options. Would suck for FB (who I'm guessing smashes One), but probably the best result for competition.

I actually think that probably gives NA the greatest chance for all three teams to get out of Groups as well (though to be clear, I think it's just as likely none get out). Yes, TSM would have a harder group, but they theoretically should be able to beat FW and Misfits at least. And that'd give C9 a theoretical chance (Edward known for not showing up at worlds, ahq thought of as super weak this year), and Immortals would just need to be better than Fnatic and not get upset by GAM.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

In any world that WE is in Group B, FNC is in Group A, C9 is in Group C and FB in Group D.

Which is FeelsGoodMan.

All TSM fans should cheer for WE's ball to be pulled first. If not WE, best other ball is FNC, because it gives us a 50/50 redraw at B (since C9 auto goes to C in a world where FNC occupies A).

All other draws are dead.

[zoraster]

http://www.h2k.gg/story/h2ks-letter-to- ... nity-no-2/

Uh so H2K is basically saying riot needs to pay them or they're going home or something. I totally get where they're coming from but it's written in a way to remove a lot of the sympathy I have for them, essentially a demand for 6.5m euro for the "legacy" teams of EU LCS. Which may be fair or not, but something really puts me off the letter.

[Cabd]

K bye H2K.

[pickemgenius]

if i were c9 id completely rather be in group c than in a.

idunno.

from a spectator pov it makes every game in group c like really fucking good. i just think c is a more open group than a.

c9 has better cumulative chances of taking 3-4 games against that group than they do of taking 1-2 from skt/edg presuming they would 2-0 ahq which I feel like I need to think they would to believe in group c being better for them.

since last nights games were both 3-0s tonights games.... are probably gonna be 3-0s as well.

[PJ.]

I wanna see Fener in A, FNC in B, C9 in C, WE in D

[SleepyKrew]

yeah I think h2k's gripes are legit but they're going about it terribly and if anything good comes of it, I doubt they'll be one of the teams to benefit

[dramonic]

C is the group that killed TSM last year though. I dunno if RNG and SSG are on par with last year, but we've seen this group beat a stronger NA team (imo). And of course G2 might show up, at least more than Splyce did.

Not that A is much better, but C9 looks pretty shafted either way

[dramonic]

Im way more excited by FNC in B, even if it could kill TSM

[dramonic]

@Zor7500: They should just draw FB/ONE's group instead of drawing for group A+. That truly randomizes the result and it makes draw in end immediately :p
Though I guess any non FNC first draw ends it immediately as well.
I dunno it just feels less random

[dramonic]

Nvm it only evens the odds for FB

[zoraster]

if i were c9 id completely rather be in group c than in a.

idunno.

from a spectator pov it makes every game in group c like really fucking good. i just think c is a more open group than a.

c9 has better cumulative chances of taking 3-4 games against that group than they do of taking 1-2 from skt/edg presuming they would 2-0 ahq which I feel like I need to think they would to believe in group c being better for them.

since last nights games were both 3-0s tonights games.... are probably gonna be 3-0s as well.

I don't think so. G2 is legitimately good, riftrivals aside. Samsung is Korean and rng is arguably stronger than Edward that has a history of folding at worlds.

Ahq is considered very weak. I don't have any firsthand knowledge of them so I'm just going on hearsay but c9 should be able to take them and if not they wouldn't have taken games from anyone else anyway.

[zoraster]

Im way more excited by FNC in B, even if it could kill TSM

It shouldn't kill them at all, but it means tsm has to perform and can't get by by underperforming. Flashwolves is a team they should be favored against albeit not by much. Definitely should be favored vs. misfits. And it's not out of the question they could split or take both games against WE though I think they may be slight underdogs to do so.

If fnb is placed in their group, Tsm not getting out would mean they crashed and burned.

[Papa Zito]

huehuehuehuehue

[zoraster]

?

[pickemgenius]

zito seems to be channeling his inner brazil


surprisingly these last two games have been/are pretty close, tho with that baron from one just now they might do the same thing they did in game two and snowball confidently.

[SensFan]

Ugh. TSM's games in Week 1 are at 3am, 3am, 4am ET.

[PJ.]

Perfect

[PJ.]

12 12 1 for those of us in the right time zone,

[dramonic]

Still not great, really.

[zoraster]

Just finished watching. As I mentioned earlier, this is probably the best shot NA has for 3 teams making it out of groups. It's also a draw that could easily end up with 0.

EU should be reasonably happy. Misfits has a tougher group, but Fnatic has what it takes to beat Immortals. And G2 is good enough to take on RNG -- whether they actually accomplish that or not.

Overall I think these groups ended up pretty great from an entertainment standpoint.

[SensFan]

I would challenge the assertion that TSM could "easily" end up not making it out. That would be a pretty large failure, way more than from any of their previous Worlds groups.

[zoraster]

I don't think it takes much imagination. I put FW as slight underdogs to TSM but it wouldn't really be "surprising" if they took both games from TSM. And WE is probably favored against TSM by a bit, though hopefully TSM will have picked up on some of the weaknesses WE exhibited. Misfits would be pretty surprising taking second but it's not out of the question.

So no, while it would be a disappointment, and TSM fans I'm sure would do their thing, it'd be easy for TSM not to make it out of the group.

[pickemgenius]

if tsm cant take 2 of 4 against fw/we or they cant go 2-0 against misfits then fuck everything.

i would love to see tsm/msf come out of group d though. that be great.

[Cabd]

Worlds pick 'ems is live fyi: http://pickem.na.lolesports.com/en-US#welcome