TBD Mafia 2 [game over]

[mastina]

If ever you were wondering what a mental breakdown looks like in a game.

Now you know.

[mastina]

BTW RE: 2223, if scum put all eggs in one basket, it's the Zelda one. I'd look to the players who both are Zeldas and correctly guessed there's more Zeldas for scum in that case, but only if scum did in fact do so. Which we won't know until most of our Zoes flip.

[Srceenplay]

can masonize one of them

If you mason a scum do they get a scum mason pt or go into the town mason pt?

[mastina]

9 players voting to lynch a Zoë (ActionDan, mastina, Toby Determined, Vecna, randomidget, chesskid3, Llamarble, MarioManiac4, Srceenplay)
5 players voting to lynch a Zelda (Dunkerdoodles, Desperado, mastina, drealmerz7, Chickadee)
3 players not voting (EddieFenix, Vecna, SnarkySnowman)

• Chickadee
  
• drealmerz7
  
• Dunkerdoodles
  
• MarioManiac4
  
• Mulch
  
• SnarkySnowman
  
• Toby Determined

• ActionDan
  
• Chickadee
  
• Desperado
  
• EddieFenix
  
• Llamarble
  
• Not_Mafia
  
• SnarkySnowman
  
• Vaxkiller
  
• Vecna
  
• chesskid3
  
• drealmerz7
  
• mastina
  
• randomidget

The list of people who could be responsible for a triple-stack: ActionDan, Vecna, randomidget, chesskid3, Llamarble (+EddieFenix, SnarkySnowman)

There's actually a bunch of math here which I really need to run for probabilities and whatnot but fucked if I can do that right now. Basically, a triple-stack of being-Zeldas, guessing-Zeldas, voting-Zoes is the above names. (Which there...are actually quite a lot of which is rather disconcerting.)

I need to run the possible combos of other divides:
Universal answers (I did half but there's another half, being-Zoes-guessing-Zoes-voting-Zeldas), Being-Zeldas-guessing-Zeldas-voting-Zeldas; Being-Zeldas-guessing-Zoes-voting-Zeldas; Being-Zoes-guessing-Zeldas-voting-Zeldas; Being-Zoes-guessing-Zoes-voting-Zoes. I think that's all but I'm not really paying too close attention right now even though I should, since this is important info to break down because down the line if we can crack what the scumteam's Zoe/Zelda strategy was, we can name who the scumteam is.

(Basically this is Steven Universe 2 all over again in that the info there IS important and is potentially game-winning, but we don't have the ability to use it quite yet.)

[mastina]

can masonize one of them

If you mason a scum do they get a scum mason pt or go into the town mason pt?

If I masonize scum, the masonize fails.

[Srceenplay]

Well I think I found my role in the grand idea thread.

[mastina]

RE: 2228, it might seem a bit unfair, but to those who were Not Voting, they get counted as BOTH voting-Zelda and voting-Zoe for the purposes of the division.
Is-Zelda = A
Is-Zoe = B
Guessed-Zelda = C
Guessed-Zoe = D
Voted-Zoe = E
Voted-Zelda = F

TRIPLE COMBO STACK(s):

ACE: ActionDan, Vecna?, randomidget, chesskid3, Llamarble (+EddieFenix)
BDF: Dunkerdoodles
---
ACF: Desperado (+EddieFenix, ??Vecna??)
ADE: Screenplay
ADF: None that I can see. (So, nobody is a Zelda who guessed Zoe and voted Zelda.)
BCE: (+SnarkySnowman)
BCF: Chickadee, drealmerz7 (+SnarkySnowman)
BDE: MarioManiac4

Did I do my calculations correctly here?
Because I just gotta say. Regardless of scum distribution that ACE pile looks suspicious.

We know that it can't be an exact scumteam mirror since the only inverse-ACE is Dunkerdoodles.
A_Es are ActionDan/Vecna/randomidget/chesskid/Llamarble
B_Fs are Dunkerdoodles/Chickadee/drealmerz/SnarkySnowman.
If the scumteam split in two, this is the most likely way they did so.

AC_s are ActionDan/Vecna/randomidget/chesskid/Llamarble/Desperado/EddieFenix
BD_s are Dunkerdoodles/MarioManiac4. This even split isn't impossible, but is less likely. Were there a split featuring these two, it'd likely be part of a larger multi-split.

_CEs are ActionDan/Vecna/randomidget/chesskid/Llamarble/EddieFenix/SnarkySnowman
_DFs are Dunkerdoodles. This can't be an even split; if this is a split, then it is part of a larger multi-split.

I don't quite have the head to calculate multi-splits. (In which the scumteam actively chose to distribute themselves differently at different points: voting a certain way for Being, voting a certain different way for Guessing, and voting a third way for the votecount today.)
But this covers most of the basics. Scumteam this game is going to be 4-8 players, probably 4-6 more realistically. If the scumteam has four/six members and went for common distributions, then they can have:
-All eggs in ACE basket
-Even split in A_E/B_Fs
-Even split in AC_s/BD_s (requires 4-man scumteam AND both Dunkerdoodles/MarioManiac4 as scum; unlikely)
-One ACE, one BCF, one ACF, remainder distributed in BDF/ADE/BCE/BDE
-Two ACE, two BCF (+remainder distributed in ACF/ADE/BDE)

...Maybe others, but I can't think of all the common distributions.
This only covers the common distributions though. It's fully possible to do a random-distribution, i.e., the scum either didn't coordinate, coordinated only partially on this and not on all three steps, didn't have all scum follow the plan (hey it happens), or simply coordinated in such a way that there was no obvious pattern to be found.

Did I mention this post is currently useless? Because yeah it's pretty worthless right now but I have faith that this information can later down the line crack the scumteam wide open. We just need to get there first.

[Srceenplay]

That only works if the outcome of choices was known before?

I never choose who I thought was more so that's inaccurate.

[mastina]

That only works if the outcome of choices was known before?

If the outcome of choices was known before, hands-down unambiguously we've got the triple-stacked/ACE scumteam, in that all of the scum would be found in ActionDan/Vecna/randomidget/chesskid/Llamarble/EddieFenix.

It's if the outcome of the choices WASN'T known that Zoe vs Zelda, both being- and guessing-, become more feasibly divided up.

Basically, if scum knew what would happen they stacked the deck in their favor; if scum didn't know what would happen, they still could have attempted a stack but also easily could be more evenly distributed, such that no matter the outcome at least one scum would benefit. (Being-Zelda, Guessing-Zelda; Being-Zoe, Guessing-Zoe; Being-Zelda, Guessing-Zoe; Being Zoe, Guessing-Zelda; it only takes four scum in order to cover all bases. It's also possible to evenly distribute between the two, with half of the scum--say, two--going Being-Zelda, Guessing-Zelda, and the other half Being-Zoe, Guessing-Zoe. However, this only works if we're on a four-scum team with both Mario and Dunkerdoodles since that's the only way to get the requisite Being-Zoe + Guessing-Zoe numbers.)

Thus, not really useful to know NOW, but WILL be useful down the line.

[Dunkerdoodles]

sorry to ruin your life mastina but

/vote zoe

i don't think it matters which one we vote because we dont know whos a zoe and whos a zelda

i was voting for zoe just forgot to use the vote tag

[Dunkerdoodles]

do i need to hardclaim? i mean it doesn't affect my role too much but i still don't want to if i dont have to

[Srceenplay]

do i need to hardclaim? i mean it doesn't affect my role too much but i still don't want to if i dont have to

That's good enough for me, you?

[Alisae]

yay I'm 19 now

[Srceenplay]

yay I'm 19 now

Sounds to me like a personal problem

[Alisae]

-_-

[Vecna]

this game feels town vs many 3rd parties to me

[Srceenplay]

this game feels town vs many 3rd parties to me

Eh
I feel like I like your reasoning.
At least 1 kill was not 3rd party. 1 maybe accident?

[Vecna]

i have others reasons too.

also i believe snarky=scum

[Srceenplay]

I'm going that wT

[Srceenplay]

I also don't like dreal
Cop claim wrong definitely doesn't put him end game.
My gut still says chess

[Vecna]

scumdreal faking cop guilty? unlikely.

maaaaaybe if someone else's plan

[EddieFenix]

@Mastin: If you're town, I want you to get with Eddie and avenge my death. Work with Marble, too. If the three of you put your heads together, you should be able to figure this game out.

I'm more than willing.

Problem is whether they will work with me.

I can masonize one of them (they're prolly the closest I have to townreads), but there's the whole reads-massively-conflict problem to deal with.

I am most certainly willing to work with you, Mastina. Talk to me and I'll answer what I can, when I can. However, I do need to address some of your posts.

GOD. FUCKING. DAMN. IT. ALL!! I wanted Bulb alive!!! I knew he was town by his postings.

No word to that effect in your post when he was under threat of being shot

While this isn't really right (Eddie was clear about having at least north of null impressions on Bulbazak), the sentiment expressed is valid enough. Eddie Cane had plenty of time to express this townread and try to dissuade the vig shot. He didn't do so.

I didn't even know it was happening AT ALL. My last post before catching up to see Bulb was shot, was Wednesday night at 11:38 my time (est). Thursday was a VERY busy day (in-game as well) with dealing with a CPS appointment, taking 3 kids and going out to lunch, other errands, and then a toddler with an upset stomach that night because the kids mom is a complete fucktard and I had to walk and rock him for an hour and 15 minutes past his usual bed time. As soon as I got lil man to bed and I cooled my rage, I was exhausted mentally and emotionally, I can't even remember what I did the rest of that night other than rage on Twitter about Mike Glennon.

Had I been able to check in at any point before the vig stuff happened, I would have been in this thread, chest deep in a hell storm of posting, trying to dissuade Desperado to NOT shoot Bulb because Bulb was my biggest ally to hunt scum with.

Double Vote: Drealmerz

You were fun day 1, but that cop on Bulb that got him vig'd leaves me unhappy.

Does hardclaiming cop with no retraction make dreal scum? Fuck no. It's the opposite.

Does you voting him without really scumhunting make you scum?
Quite possibly.

WHY CAN'T I GET TOWNREADS
I SWEAR TO GOD I CAN SCUMHUNT NORMALLY

He's -claiming- cop with no retraction. Issue being here is that, IF he's the cop, there's something out there that mucked him up and he gets a strong/loud town player vig'd. The vig is cleared as town as far as I am concerned. No one better vote Desperado going forward.

If he's NOT the cop (Dreal), which I have a good feeling that he's not, then the true cop is keeping their head down intelligently and knows to just let things pan out so when they do get a proper hit, they pop their head up and go "SCUM!", we rope it and then hope they live long enough to give us another scan.

Right now, I'm going to pick up Bulbs list, cross check with mine, and see where things fall. When we hydra, we have dissonance, but when we link up, we're terrifying.

The first person on that list of scum right now from Bulbs list for me is Drealz. Now, imma go get a bit more Z's. Got a full slate of little man time today.

[Randomnamechange]

I'm ACE

[chesskid3]

me 2

[chesskid3]

the last few Zoe votes contain scumz tbh