Mini 1939 - Organization XIII (Game Over)

[VII Saix]

Yes, see, that was me stating my opinions for the first time, and not 20 different times across 18 posts.

[VII Saix]

What I'm doing right now isn't helping.

New Xigbar, where you at dog?

[XIII Roxas]

I said Zero to Hero, which is a song from Hercules. Hercules, in the last Heartless game, was a conditional-bulletproof. (Who, mind you, also had a day-power to go alongside it.)

And I have no idea what possesses you to think anyone else could have possibly figured this out, which I'm pretty sure is the point of crumbs anyways.

Half the players in this game are/were players in that game. I used Capitalized Letters even. Capitalized letters in weird spots are, by default, from a proper typist like myself (I use proper punctuation in every way, from spelling to grammar to capitalization), out of place. They were in of themselves a signal. Capital letters are never accidental on my end. So capped letters signals "this is a crumb". Zero to Hero signals "this is what the crumb is for". From there it's an obvious step. Plus it helps that I had already heavily softclaimed. It's all-around smart breadcrumbing play and about as good as you'll ever find.

[VII Saix]

Even if, in some bizzarro world he's town...his lynch STILL gives us a bundleload of information, in that we know EXACTLY where to go. If he's scum, he's not only a scum lynch, but also a scum lynch which further gives us an idea of where the final scum is. If he's town, we still benefit because we get to know who the final scum would be. But that doesn't really matter much, because he's just. scum.

This is a thing I wouldn't mind some clarification on. If he's town, who's scum? If the answer is "lynch Saix either way," then I don't thik that qualifies as what you're saying it is.

[XIII Roxas]

Whatever, hopefully the other replacements' fresh take on the game will cause them to notice what an absurd tragedy is that Xaldin isn't dead yet.

It is for this post, and this post alone, that I can submit Xaldin to not be the lynch today.

Do you trust Saix to shoot scum?
Even a newer "saner" Saix?
Do you think that this Saix will actually kill a scumbag with Saix's stated positions?

If Xaldin is lynched, the answer for me is "fuck no, if Saix shoots, it will be town".
I mean, there's no guarantee Xaldin is scum of course. If the scumteam really is just Demyx-Saix, then shooting Xaldin is shooting town. But I GUARANTEE you. That if Xaldin is the lynch. Xaldin town, Xaldin scum, doesn't matter which way he flips. 100% of the time. Saix does not shoot scum.

I might not be good at many things.
But night action optimization in tandem with the lynch is one of my few talents.

We can't lynch either Zexion or Axel, because Zexion is set to cop Axel tonight. We similarly shouldn't allow Saix free reign to shoot them.
We should never lynch Luxord or Xigbar. We similarly shouldn't allow Saix free reign to shoot them.
Xemnas is obviously conftown and thus not a lynch nor a vig. (Because lol if Saix "vigged" the conftown.)
We can't lynch Saix because he's a claimed vig; Saix wouldn't shoot himself.
From there it's a matter of basically sorting out what is possible.

Objectively Marluxia and I have nothing stopping lynches or vigs on us (aside from maybe how I have the potential to become bulletproof upon a scum lynch, which is just reason for me to be on the lynch regardless of whom for the chance of earning it no matter how small), but subjectively those are godawful vigs for a MYRIAD of reasons.

And that gives you a lynch/vig pool of...
...Xaldin/Demyx.

Saix has stated repeatedly he refuses to vig Demyx.
So if we lynch Xaldin, then the one and only person who could possibly be vigged and flip scum...won't. (Demyx.)
If instead we lynch Demyx. Then Saix is forced to vig Xaldin.

It's basic POE math combined with gamesolving. Order of operations. Xaldin dies tonight, via vig. Demyx dies today, via lynch. Because vice-versa won't be possible.

[VII Saix]

Obviously if I'm a scum vig I'm going to shoot town regardless but I'm not sure why that's even in the conversation.

[VII Saix]

That if Xaldin is the lynch. Xaldin town, Xaldin scum, doesn't matter which way he flips. 100% of the time. Saix does not shoot scum.

I mean that's because you think the scumteam in that situation is exactly one person and... me.... and you won't consider any other possibilities....

[VII Saix]

If you're actually 100% right about who is scum and can convince anyone of that, then it doesn't matter what the hell I do so I'm not sure why you care about it so much.

I don't especially agree that I'm forced to shoot Xaldin if you don't lynch him. But I'm also hoping I don't need your vote to lynch him, so.

[XIII Roxas]

If I could draw, I'd make you a nice neon "Demyx and Saix are scum because I said so" sign and you could just post that instead of words!

No, Demyx is scum because there's been nothing town about Demyx the whole game. Demyx started as a "I can't pin down" read, and was like that all through 1.0. Come 2.0 and it was downhill from there. Shitty positions across the whole game, start to finish. Stances incredibly convenient and easy to take. Every step of the way. Bad posts after bad posts. Sketchy interactions, bad votes, and in general just a whole lot of scum behavior across the entire tenure of the slot.

You've been a scumread for much the same. Nothing Saix has done the whole game has been remotely town. I've asked, REPEATEDLY, why people were townreading the slot. Not once was I given in-game reasoning. Instead, "If Saix is who I think they are then town" as the closest to an explanation. Post-claim, we get the simplistic and idiotic view of "but that role sounds town therefore Saix must be town!". You come in and you take stances almost identical to your predecessor. Suspiciously so in fact. You take much the same angles, you attack many the same people even using a fair amount of the same process. You play things close to your chest, making it easier to bullshit whatever you want.

It's not scum because I fucking said so. It's scum because that's what literally all the evidence says.

[VII Saix]

If Zexion comes in and confirms that his role is basically what we think it is, I'm probably not going to shoot Axel, because obviously that would be terrible.

[XIII Roxas]

Even if, in some bizzarro world he's town...his lynch STILL gives us a bundleload of information, in that we know EXACTLY where to go. If he's scum, he's not only a scum lynch, but also a scum lynch which further gives us an idea of where the final scum is. If he's town, we still benefit because we get to know who the final scum would be. But that doesn't really matter much, because he's just. scum.

This is a thing I wouldn't mind some clarification on. If he's town, who's scum? If the answer is "lynch Saix either way," then I don't thik that qualifies as what you're saying it is.

If he's town, then it's Saix-Xaldin. If he's scum, then it's either Demyx-Saix OR Demyx-Xaldin. You are not scum no matter what; there is a world in which you are town and it is not at all that unrealistic of one! I fully admit it is QUITE possible the scumteam is Demyx-Xaldin. They both have the same basic level of shitty contribution, just in different ways. But it is that very same "different ways" which makes me more inclined to believe Demyx-Saix. Demyx and you have been shitty in basically the same way. Xaldin's a pathetic lurksack, which is shitty, but shitty in a different way. So while Xaldin very well could be scum, he is less likely scum than you or Demyx. It's a strong possibility, but it's not my working theory, as it were.

[VII Saix]

If I could draw, I'd make you a nice neon "Demyx and Saix are scum because I said so" sign and you could just post that instead of words!

No, Demyx is scum because there's been nothing town about Demyx the whole game. Demyx started as a "I can't pin down" read, and was like that all through 1.0. Come 2.0 and it was downhill from there. Shitty positions across the whole game, start to finish. Stances incredibly convenient and easy to take. Every step of the way. Bad posts after bad posts. Sketchy interactions, bad votes, and in general just a whole lot of scum behavior across the entire tenure of the slot.

You've been a scumread for much the same. Nothing Saix has done the whole game has been remotely town. I've asked, REPEATEDLY, why people were townreading the slot. Not once was I given in-game reasoning. Instead, "If Saix is who I think they are then town" as the closest to an explanation. Post-claim, we get the simplistic and idiotic view of "but that role sounds town therefore Saix must be town!". You come in and you take stances almost identical to your predecessor. Suspiciously so in fact. You take much the same angles, you attack many the same people even using a fair amount of the same process. You play things close to your chest, making it easier to bullshit whatever you want.

It's not scum because I fucking said so. It's scum because that's what literally all the evidence says.

This is basically just more of you saying so.

I feel like someone in the game has probably given an actual reason for townreading my slot.
I don't know that my positions are particularly similar to my predecessor's? His only stance Day 3 has been a death tunnel on Xigbar who I am townreading? I stopped reading Saix's posts though, so IDK beyond that...

I'm not playing close to my chest -- I pondered that and decided not to.

[VII Saix]

If he's town, then it's Saix-Xaldin. If he's scum, then it's either Demyx-Saix OR Demyx-Xaldin

So what you're saying is... it doesn't give us any information at all because that's what you already think.

C O O L

[XIII Roxas]

Obviously if I'm a scum vig I'm going to shoot town regardless but I'm not sure why that's even in the conversation.

It also likely means that scum feel fine about looking town in a mass claim, so let's not give too much credit for town-looking roles thanks.

If someone targets me at night, they will be killed automatically. I can kill someone at night, but if I choose to do so, I will forfeit the first ability. So, in effect, I have only one functional power but been given the option to choose out of the two. Lynching is the only likely way I will be shown the door, unless the scum can afford to reduce by 1. I can go to the endgame if people believe me.

(Scum vig is entirely possible. Thus, it'd be idiotic to

not

have it in the conversation. There are multiple possibilities. You're scum bullshitting. You're scum who has a role that makes it possible to fake a vig shot, e.g. PGO and with the right timing you can claim it as a vig shot and justify it after. (This one would explain the reads-close-to-chest.) You're scum who actually

is

a 1x vigilante. Or you're town telling the truth. Plans should account for all possibilities, and not bank everything on one.)

[VII Saix]

Said the person who won't acknowledge half the game could possibly be scum.

[VII Saix]

Also, I'd have to not be a bomb to be a scum vig, yes? No point in that ability if town can't kill anyone.

Why would my predecessor have tried to hardline refuse to shoot anyone as a scum vig? To the point where he risked being a lynch? That was town as shit if I'm able to prove the role.

[XIII Roxas]

This is basically just more of you saying so.

It's me summarizing what I've said in my fucking iso which is filled with explanations on all angles. The PoE approach (why others are town),

and

the scumread approach. I really want to quote my whole damn iso which is relevant but fuck that I'm not spending that much time and effort on this game.

I feel like someone in the game has probably given an actual reason for townreading my slot.

Oh? Do tell. You literally just finished your readthrough. Name it.

I'm not playing close to my chest -- I pondered that and decided not to.

You've been highly dodgy, elusive, and noncommittal every step of the way: hesitating to out your role, hesitating to give stances, and when you DID give them, having lots of leeway built in. Your stances are open to interpretation and you literally said it yourself, you could vig anyone in the game save three players, one who is our IC and the second who is borderline-IC anyway. The one name who sticks out is the player who is most fucking likely to be scum. (Demyx.)

[VII Saix]

hesitating to out your role, hesitating to give stances, and when you DID give them, having lots of leeway built in.

I didn't out my entire role right at the outset because my bomb ability only has utility when unclaimed. Pretty reasonable.

I initially thought it was a good idea not to give too many stances, but changed my mind with no prompting or disagreement from anyone else, so.... meh?

That's because I'm not a cocky player and I don't believe my reads are perfect.

you literally said it yourself, you could vig anyone in the game save three players, one who is our IC and the second who is borderline-IC anyway. The one name who sticks out is the player who is most fucking likely to be scum. (Demyx.)

You're forgetting either Xigbar or Luxord.

[XIII Roxas]

If he's town, then it's Saix-Xaldin. If he's scum, then it's either Demyx-Saix OR Demyx-Xaldin

So what you're saying is... it doesn't give us any information at all because that's what you already think.
C O O L

This is a blatant misrep of what I was saying. I very unambiguously said what information it gives. Demyx as scum tells us that it's Saix or Xaldin. This is information I assume, but it is not information I

have

. It is information that I am working off of, but I lack the proof. I only have the speculations off of interactions and whatnot of these.

Demyx as town tells us that it's unambiguously Saix and Xaldin because that's the only possible scumteam. This is information we didn't have before.

So we learn info either way. The info we learn helps narrow the game down to the point where it can be solved easily. If you're a vig, you can shoot Xaldin and the game ends right then and there. Xaldin dies and flips scum, we've got Demyx-scum dead and Xaldin-scum dead so we win. Xaldin dies and flips town, then you're a scum vig and we lynch you. Demyx-scum dead, then Saix-scum dead, so we win. If you're not a vig then you're fucking scum and we lynch you. Demyx-scum dead, then Saix-scum dead, so we win.

It's basic math. Process of elimination.

[VII Saix]

When you say a lynch gives you information usually it's information that shapes your reads not just literally what the alignment of that person is narrowing down who is scum because they were town. That is just called lynching someone.

[VII Saix]

Demyx as town tells us that it's unambiguously Saix and Xaldin because that's the only possible scumteam.

I have a hard time believing you've been on this site as long as you have and have somehow never eaten words like these or learned from that experience.

[VII Saix]

In particular, the content from the Marluxia and Axel slots has been extremely fakeable.

[XIII Roxas]

Said the person who won't acknowledge half the game could possibly be scum.

And I've laid out exactly why they're not.
Xemnas is conftown.
Xigbar is town not only by role but by how D2 NEVER comes from a scum-Xigbar.

Zexion is a claimed cop: we are going to get that cop investigation tonight. Regardless of Zexion's alignment, this is valuable to have. But I have been explaining literally every step of the way exactly why Zexion is town ever since I learned who was in the reigns. I know Zexion and this is not a Zexion scumgame, not even remotely in any way. Not even a detached, demotivated Zexion. They just never do the things they did if they are scum here. So damn right I'm eliminating them from the pool.

Axel is being investigated. This is self-evident as to why he's not in the pool. Yes, shit happens: failed investigative, Zexion nightkilled, and so on and so forth. But these are things which we cross the bridge when we come to it and assuming we lynch scum today with me on the wagon I can guarantee I'll be there to help figure it out. It's not something we need to plan out in advance, aside from not lynching him and not vigging him. Even without these factors though, Axel has been a game-long townread of mine every step of the way. In fact, I think of all the players in this game, Axel is literally the only one who my read

hasn't

changed on. He's been a steadfast townread of mine the whole way. I've shown my process there, and there hasn't really been much of a tangible case for why he'd possibly be scum.

Luxord I admit could

theoretically

be scum. But just isn't. Every step of the way it becomes clearer and clearer. Everything he does makes it more obvious this is a town-Luxord. And yes since everyone knows who Luxord is thanks to a certain namedrop I can confidently say that I know the difference between a town-him and a scum-him. This is the town-Luxord who I tend to have at least some level of synergy with, in that he sees much the same as I do, but we disagree in some key points where we hash it out and try to get scum. He's simply not capable of this level of play as scum. He's one of the best town players on the site yet one of the worst scum players. (No offense meant.) And his play this game simply isn't terrible enough for him to be scum.

Marluxia could also theoretically be scum. Yet every step of the way, I've shown why she isn't. I've agreed with others on their reasoning there even if I haven't always vocalized it, yet she simply doesn't fit as scum in any way. The interactions don't make sense, the content doesn't make sense. Marluxia is just...beaming as town every step of the way.

Which leaves.
Xaldin the lurksack.
Demyx the scumfuck.
And you.

[VII Saix]

This is such a waste of time. I don't know why I bother.

[XIII Roxas]

Also, I'd have to not be a bomb to be a scum vig, yes? No point in that ability if town can't kill anyone.

Hey so the funny thing about scum is that they lie.
Shocker!
I know.
This must truly be a groundbreaking statement to be uttered.
But they do.

Why would my predecessor have tried to hardline refuse to shoot anyone as a scum vig? To the point where he risked being a lynch? That was town as shit if I'm able to prove the role.

There could be any number of justifications for this. The vig could have conditions. The vig could, if used, cause you to lose something. In fact this is rather plausible, given that your slot has claimed to be a bomb until the vig is used. If you used the vig, maybe you give something up. For instance, when your slot originally claimed, it claimed your ability was a PGO. It's always possible that's what it really is: a PGO. This could easily happen as a result of stating their realclaim mistakenly in place of their fakeclaim.

Now that's a rather good theory but it's by far not the only one I can think of. Even if the vig doesn't have such conditions in place. Even if the scum have an ungated 1x vig, no requirements, no consequences. Scum have motive to not shoot: we're on evens right now. Shooting a town player removes a mislynch from the game for free. It narrows the suspect pool and yet costs the town nothing. That is something there absolutely is scum motive in.