A Mid-Scummer Night's Dream - D.S. al Fine

TheWayItEnds · Post Post #4475 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:21 am

because it completely ignores the context of the day where there arent enough votes on the table to lynch you just so you can post your conclusion.

because the argument you put forward is "hey i know my wagon looks exactly like a wagon on scum and thats why i must be town"

the post looks like it just exists so you have something to point at and go look im arguing that im town now like town people are wont to do.

drealmerz7 · Post Post #4476 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:24 am

no, that's not what the argument I put forth at all

Lady Lambdadelta · Post Post #4477 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:35 am

TheWayItEnds · Post Post #4478 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:03 am

oh im sorry i wrote them in the wrong order.

you put.

im town because i havent been lynched yet

even though my wagon looks exactly like a wagon on scum.

not

"hey i know my wagon looks exactly like a wagon on scum and thats why i must be town"

completely baseless on my part.

drealmerz7 · Post Post #4479 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:05 am

nope, try again

like actually read my words maybe?

TheWayItEnds · Post Post #4480 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:07 am

MathBlade · Post Post #4481 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:54 pm

Home and eating dinner. After a call with my mom I'll look at those votes. I have a feeling I'm off about something I just don't know what.

MathBlade · Post Post #4482 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:06 pm

In post 4477, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:

Town points for the awesome git'r done music.

JK I don't believe in town points but the music is awesome I really need to play this series. It's on my to play list.

MathBlade · Post Post #4483 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:11 pm

I'm trying to get the data from my automated vote counter to help me analyze this because some of those vote patterns have me officially confused. If I get it up and running with this weird player list I will share it with everyone

MathBlade · Post Post #4484 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:11 pm

Yeah been at it for an hour and the bold tags and misspellings are missing like a lot of the votes.

Blah...Just going to have to do the analysis the old fashioned way damn :/

MathBlade · Post Post #4485 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:39 pm

Spoiler: VCs for Math

MathBlade · Post Post #4486 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:58 pm

baku and munna

(9): Regfan,

Brian Skies

,

NoticeMeSenpai

, drealmerz7, Cephrir,

hiplop

,

MariaR

,

Sakura Hana

,

Varsoon

Desperado

(3):

Floodgates

, hebichan,

baku and munna

Scum lynch: look for bussing.
The first place I look for scum on a scum lynch (ESPECIALLY a D1 scum lynch--it is ridiculously hard to lynch scum D1 without the assistance of scum because of town chaos and paranoia) is on the wagon. While there is obviously no guarantee that there actually is scum there, I put analysis in to determine where the scum would be if not on the scum wagon. (More on that below.)

FoS Regfan (Gut says they aren't scum just following the data) drealmerz and Cephrir

Town lynch: look off the wagon.
The first place I look for scum on a mislynch is OFF the wagon--I try to determine how many scum (if any) there are, and who the probable candidates are. Sometimes, there are situations where there are none to be found, or far fewer to be found than expected...and in those situations, by virtue of doing this analysis, I have a better idea of how good or bad the mislynch wagon was.

Nosferatu

(8): Regfan,

NoticeMeSenpai

,

Brian Skies

,

Varsoon

, drealmerz7,

Sakura Hana

, hebichan,

MariaR

(3): Cephrir, Syryana,

mhsmith0

hebichan (1):

Desperado

drealmerz7 (1): Lady Lambdadelta
Lady Lambdadelta (1): Imperium
Cephrir (1):

Nosferatu

FoS Cephrir (2), Syrana,LLD, Imperium

TheWayItEnds (1):

MariaR

Desperado

(7):

Sakura Hana

, hebichan, Lady Lambdadelta,

Brian Skies

, Cephrir, serrapaladin,

mhsmith0

Lady Lambdadelta (1):

Desperado

MariaR

(2): drealmerz7, TheWayItEnds

Not Voting (1): Regfan

FoS drealmerz (2) TWIE(2) Regfan(2)

MariaR

(6):

Sakura Hana

, drealmerz7, Regfan, serrapaladin, TheWayItEnds, hebichan
drealmerz7 (3): Lady Lambdadelta, Cephrir,

MariaR

TheWayItEnds (1):

mhsmith0

FoS LLD (2), Cephrir (3)

By the numbers Cephrir is likely scum but now need to look at counterwagons and such and see what Cephrir was doing and why.

MathBlade · Post Post #4487 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:12 pm

Regardless: counterwagons.
I look for the presence of a counterwagon, or far more tellingly, the utter lack of one. If there is no discernible counterwagon on a scum lynch, it's a safe bet scum bussed. Maybe even heavily. If on a scum lynch there is a counterwagon on a player who is known to be town, then the names there have a decent chance of being scum. This is not that common anymore, but sometimes it does still happen. If on a town lynch there is a counterwagon on a player who is known to be scum...then there's a reasonable chance you can use the safe/standard model of "scum voted town, town voted scum" with an above average accuracy.

mhsmith0 wrote:
that guy sitting out the day's lynch when it's town v town? That's scum with substantial probability.

If on a town lynch there is a counterwagon on a town player, then the scum didn't care which got lynched--the scum are likely to be about evenly distributed between each wagon, and if there's players on neither wagon, there's a disproportionately high chance that the players off both wagons are scum.

Day 1: Wagon on scum counter wagon on town.

baku's votes were on hebichan and MariaR start of the day and then drealmerz and Cephrir towards the end of it. Being scum with Shiro in the past has lead me to learn some of his meta. Namely when he's going down he likes to throw a lot of wine as much as possible. Generally he did still vote town some of the time though. Mainly this leads me to think that hebichan is probably town and one or more of drealmerz/Cephrir are scum.

LLD and Nos seem joined at the hip towards the end of day one. I don't really see a scum related motivation for that. We know Desperado was town and generally the more a wagon stagnates the more likely it is to get lynched so I don't see LLD swapping to a new wagon and making baku vulnerable.

NOTE TO SELF LOOK BETWEEN 1.10 MAJOR AND 1.10 MINOR

Drealmerz looks pretty horrible or good in that in that VC depending on why. Cephrir just looks terrible hopping on line that. See how he read Desperado and see if he had an authentic reason for hopping on baku.

No real counter wagons picked up means scum likely decided to bus at that point, which supports what Mastina's guide says.

MathBlade · Post Post #4488 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:25 pm

Desperado

(5):

NoticeMeSenpai

,

Varsoon

, hebichan,

Sakura Hana

,

Nosferatu

hebichan (1):

Brian Skies

Varsoon

(1): Syryana
Cephrir (1):

MariaR

Not Voting (7): Imperium, drealmerz7,

Desperado

, Lady Lambdadelta,

hiplop

, Regfan, Cephrir

hebichan (6):

Brian Skies

,

MariaR

,

Desperado

,

NoticeMeSenpai

,

Varsoon

, Regfan

Desperado

(3): hebichan,

Sakura Hana

,

Nosferatu

Varsoon

(2): Syryana, Cephrir

Not Voting (4): Lady Lambdadelta, Imperium,

hiplop

, drealmerz7

For a moment assume hebichan is town. This means all of scum were watching town eat itself alive day two.

I also need to see why the hebichan wagon picked up steam and why it died.

hebichan (3): Desperado, Varsoon, Regfan
Desperado (3): Nosferatu, Lady Lambdadelta, Sakura Hana
Cephrir (3): Imperium, MariaR, drealmerz7
Imperium (1): mhsmith0
drealmerz7 (1): Cephrir
Sakura Hana (1): hebichan
Varsoon (1): Syryana

Not Voting (2): NoticeMeSenpai, Brian Skies

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Dream Timer (recalculated):

Day 2 Dream Choice1. "I Woke Up Before I Hit the Ground"
2. "Murder and Mayhem"
3. "Sheeting Rain, Such a Storm"

Vote for the dream of your choice by PMing the mod.

At the end of day 2, information about the dream that receives the most votes will be revealed.

You will be able to finalize your dream choice during the Moonrise phase.

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:00 pm
by morph the cat
VC 2-13 Minor

hebichan (4): Desperado, Varsoon, Regfan, Syryana
Desperado (3): Nosferatu, Lady Lambdadelta, Sakura Hana

Cephrir (3): Imperium, MariaR, drealmerz7
Imperium (1): mhsmith0
drealmerz7 (1): Cephrir

Sakura Hana (1): hebichan

I hate that part in bold. Generally players cross voting like this have some kind of reason or incentive, depending on alignment.
2-17 Cephrir moves from the useless drealmerz7 wagon onto the equally fruitless LLD wagon.
Lady Lambdadelta (2): Imperium, Cephrir

Cephrir gets to L-1
Cephrir (7):

MariaR

, hebichan,

Varsoon

,

Brian Skies

, Lady Lambdadelta,

Nosferatu

,

Sakura Hana

all with confirmed town EXCEPT LLD.

And then drealmerz7 in such a short timespan...4 hours??

drealmerz7 (6): Lady Lambdadelta, hebichan,

Sakura Hana

,

NoticeMeSenpai

, Cephrir,

mhsmith0

hebichan (3):

Desperado

, Regfan, drealmerz7
Cephrir (3):

MariaR

,

Nosferatu

,

Varsoon

Imperium (1): Syryana
Lady Lambdadelta (1): Imperium

Not Voting (1):

Brian Skies

And then NOSFERATU is lynched???

This is the gold mine I think. I think the answers are going to be in day two end of day.

MathBlade · Post Post #4489 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:33 pm

In post 1773, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:And I'm probably getting shot tonight for this, but if we're being honest, it's possible Mafia just have a rolecop or some stupid shit like that and I was made regardless.

K LLD can go into the "why the fuck you didn't policy yourself pile." << This pile is I'm annoyed but whatever....will vent later on. Hebichan wasn't in real danger at that point. She could have easily handled that differently as scum she gets more angry or the buddies could have hopped on or made noise. LLD directly claiming PR role how she did and trying to take a shot makes her likely town.

Brian P.S. don't tell scum about the masons pweeeeeeeeeeeeease in future games.

MathBlade · Post Post #4490 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:34 pm

In post 1786, Cephrir wrote:VOTE: drealmerz

ewwwwww this vote is disgusting.

MathBlade · Post Post #4491 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:36 pm

In post 1802, drealmerz7 wrote:I don't think LLD is lying town, but then that didn't even cross my mind until you said it

I think she's either using hebi or in cohorts with hebi - if I'm wrong about that, well, no surprise really, I'm not too good at townplay in the early game and even worse when it's with a good portion of players I have little to no familiarity with

interesting "from reg" in there...

Shit so is this....

Ugh...Like Cephrir reads like he knows people are town and drealmerz being a gambiter doesn't consider other people are gambiters? (See In Memory)

MathBlade · Post Post #4492 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:44 pm

In post 1999, MariaR wrote:
In post 453, Cephrir wrote:i dont even want to know what these silly percentages are necessary for.

VOTE: hebichan

In post 456, Cephrir wrote:ive played with hebi in the past and found her quite transparently town. not seeing that.

unsure.
He clearly scumreads Hebi here and hebi doesn't show up until WAY later on the read.
In post 801, Cephrir wrote:
In post 179, Cephrir wrote:can we please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, not
This is when the fight with LLD/Dreal happened I believe? Does not comment on it at all on reads or anything of the sort just tries to play peacemaker
In post 1011, Cephrir wrote:my top suspects at the moment are basically the people who have antagonized me and that's either a sign i looked like a good mislynch yesterday (which i probably did to the less initiated) or my reads suck which to be fair they frequently do

In post 1177, Cephrir wrote:Hebi is flipping town

In post 1179, Cephrir wrote:
In post 1171, hebichan wrote:My role isn't actually alignment indicative, My role is just that I am the target for dreams more often.
I think this might be a townslip
This is a such a strange thing to townslip?
In post 1193, Cephrir wrote:
In post 1189, MariaR wrote:VOTE: Cephrir

Pretty sure the way Ceph is going at this wagon he knows Hebi is town and gonna reep up the towncred on the wagon.

You'd find a way to vote me if I claimed mason zzz
He just deflects everything with jokes or try to ask me why just threw me in his srs

Daaaaaaaaamn that's a sick burn.

MathBlade · Post Post #4493 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:47 pm

In post 2023, drealmerz7 wrote:wow

I'm willing to hammer this too

AFTER A CLAIM

nos - I think it is situational, sometimes it can be indicative, sometimes it is not, I think people think just because sometimes it is that all the times it is, but it is not

here I don't think it is

p-edit: yes drains slower when more activity but it's so low now nothing is safe

UGHHHHHHHHHH wow....This is horrible. Being willing to hammer Cephrir after his claim without knowing what it is?

MathBlade · Post Post #4494 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:56 pm

In post 2377, Syryana wrote:I'm with you my miller mason buddy

VOTE: MariaR

Okay wow.....I kinda think it's Cephrir + TWIE right now.

MathBlade · Post Post #4495 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:03 pm

Just got to the end of day two and I'm thinking Cephrir + TWIE and drealmerz may or may not be scum but that would sort itself out. Imperium feels town by play alone in that flash wagon so serra goes back to null. Ewww that means Regfan scum by PoE? But Regfan's posting is hella good.

I'm probably 80% confident in Cephrir scum based on play and meta and how Syryana's chainsaw on Maria R went down but I just don't have the confidence to join a drealmerz or LLD wagon.

MathBlade · Post Post #4496 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:09 pm

Since that probably means we no lynch:

LLD if you are town you CANNOT hide tonight. If scum have an unused strongman hiding behind the person you think is BP could cost us the game. And if you don't hide behind the person who has the BP that's just silly as two town deaths mean we lose. We cannot have two town deaths tonight. If you say you hid, I'm considering it a scum claim.

Now: Assume the chosen dream is a PR. Who would you give it to in my shoes and why?

Regfan · Post Post #4497 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:20 pm

I should be home and able to get to this in ~2-3 hours.

Regfan · Post Post #4498 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:47 pm

In post 4331, MathBlade wrote:I think no lynching is the proper play here. However that probably means I die tonight and then true LyLO.

I don't think a mod would put in an instant loss mechanic. I would be willing to risk it.

With the loved modifier today it is super risky to lynch unless all Town agree and are active.

Unless the scum team is Hebichan and TWIE + an inactive poster I doubt that we would have an all town wagon.

As much as I feel LLD is scum mainly I am hoping a dream tonight helps us and mainly going to take the time to see if I can out wifom scum and drop a targeted PR to someone who will live through the night and assuming a targeted PR is chosen.

I'd normally agree re; no lynching at MYLO being the optimal play, there's advantages of doing so here too, it possibly being from 8->7 and the dream results maybe making it easier to piece together, that said I think mafia do one of two things tonight and if they actually do either of those things the 8->7 type things don't help me at all. The "I don't the mod would put something there to make us autolose in LYLO" that someone brought up means nothing since I"d imagine most of the "N1 this comes up" "N2 this comes up" type thing was preplanned and not something that's changed to suit the game state. Pretty much no lynching isn't horrendous but I'd lose sleep if we NL'ed and lost from it, it'd be something that'd absolutely bug me years from now; I still think about the game I lost from Nacho selfvoting in LYLO, it's losses from dumb shit that I just can't live with, wrong reads, that's fine, mechanical blunders not so much. That said looks like we're no lynching today since we're not even remotely close to an agreement with anything, I'd be voting LLD & Hebichan over Ceph and that's where you seem like you're wanting to vote based on your prior posts and there's no reason to vote anywhere that you're not doing so since 8 to lynch, confirmed townie + player never selfvoting means the only we get a lynch without you is if there's 2 scum minimum on the wagon which yeah is only happening for a mslynch.

Regfan · Post Post #4499 (ISO) » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:51 pm

And yes, Math Sakura claimed she was given the vest. Zero fucking idea why she did that since I was planning on seeing if I can bait scum into shooting her at some point and by her doing so it made a bunch of players a much easier target for scum to shoot at, tried to hint to her that she shouldn't claim it at all but that fell on deaf ears. It was incredibly dumb but it wasn't the first or only dumb claim we've had this game and I'm sure it won't be the last I see at this site.