Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[Rigel]

I'm confused as to why discussion has swayed from our primary suspects at the moment, but I don't have time to dwell on it as I am about to leave on a trip for the next few days. I will be back on Wednesday, and I will analyze the situation better at that time.

[MadCrawdad]

I'm confused as to why discussion has swayed from our primary suspects at the moment, but I don't have time to dwell on it as I am about to leave on a trip for the next few days. I will be back on Wednesday, and I will analyze the situation better at that time.

There's more than one scumbag left in the game, and there's no sense in sitting on our hands while we wait to hear from other players of interest...

@Spacecase

Nope, didn't scare away the noob. Sorry a lot has been going on with the recent death threats and the crazy amount of homework tagged along with this kinda stuff. Give me an hour to catch up.

Okay SC, here you give a reason as to why you haven't been participating much. Can you please elaborate on the death threats that you speak of, and explain how your homework load would increase as a result?

yes my posting has been getting progressively slower do to certain events (i.e. JRP, V Tennis and ACT). Anyway I will try my hardest to keep current with this game.

More reasons, a post or two later, as to why you haven't participated much...

Can anybody clarify exactly why there was a case on Melody man. I'm having a hard time finding it since my reading is totally inept.

And here we have it... After claiming to be taking time to read up in the first quote, and promising to keep up a few posts later, this is your contribution.

What about the pending case against you? Surely you read that people wanted to hear from you. And your sole contribution is to ask about Melody Man?

While I'm not one much for lynching lurkers, avoiding questions is a completely different story...

[-TinVision-]

Third Vote Count of the Day

Spacecase - 4 (Shteven, farside22, Rigel, Oman, dahill1)

Not voting - 9 (

Cipher, LaptopGun, Spacecase, The Fonz, somestrangeflea, vollkan, MadCrawdad, Phate)

With 13 alive, it is 7 to lynch.

Edit: Move along, nothing to see here. Haroom.

[MadCrawdad]

Third Vote Count of the Day

Spacecase - 5 (Shteven, farside22, Rigel, Oman, dahill1)
Shteven - 1 (Oman)

Not voting - 9 (

Cipher, LaptopGun, Spacecase, The Fonz, somestrangeflea, vollkan, MadCrawdad, Phate)

With 13 alive, it is 7 to lynch.

you've got Oman voting Spacecase and Shteven

[Oman]

Elaborate on this please, Oman. Why does it look like scumbuddies?

While there's a good chance that Spacecase is scum,

In case he gets lynched he can't be accused of defending.

giving him a chance to defend himself is probably more prudent than just lynching him for lurking.

Puts forward a strange situation, give the lurker time to defend. He's lurking, which means he's had lots of time to defend, he's choosing not to. So the first sentence is "Oh ya, he's likely scum" the second is "Just give him more time" which is whats getting him lynched in the first place.

Any time I see a sentece contradict itself, it looks like scum.

But that means you're attacking someone for being new, and the chances of them being scum are simply random (1/4 in this case, from initial setup).

Did you even read my damn posts? I was not attacking him for being new, I defended him for being new, as I didn't feel the reversal was a scumtell, then he did what I thought was a scumtell specific to newbies.

you've got Oman voting Spacecase and Shteven

I'm a magic double voter.

Oh and:

[12] The mod is always right. Accept the decisions

I now have two votes.

[MadCrawdad]

Any time I see a sentece contradict itself, it looks like scum.

Oman, I was hoping you could address a rather large contradiction, on your part, for me...

While there's a good chance that Spacecase is scum, giving him a chance to defend himself is probably more prudent than just lynching him for lurking.

This looks like scumbuddies to me.

Alignment based FoS: MCD

In this post, you specifically say that I'm scumbuddies with SC. Even throw an alignment-based FoS my way. This specifically says to me 'If SC is scum, then MadCrawdad is scum.'

Oman just pulled a thinly veiled OMGUS. This looks fascinating. FOS Oman

HoS LTG

I think you're scum.

That was obviously a joke. Now, I'm not OMGUSing him. I'm simply saying that last line looks like scum. The thing is, it only holds if Spacecase turns up town, so I promise you, if he comes up town, MCD gets a vote. If he comes up scum...I'll look elsewhere.

Now here you say basically that 'if SC is scum then MadCrawdad is town.'

Your second post answering LaptopGun is a complete contradiction to the first alignment-based FoS that you threw.

Please explain the contradiction.

[Oman]

Ah sorry, misstype. It should be the other way around. I do several things whilst playing mafia.

[Shteven]

My post 473 was in reference to:

NEWBIES CAN BE SCUM TOO!! YOUR BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THIS THOUGHT THAT "NEWBIE" ALWAYS MEANS TOWN. NEW PEOPLE CAN BE SCUM ABOUT 1/3 OF THE TIME. RAWRRRRRR!

This makes it look like you're lynching someone for basically random odds. Also, the number of scum is fixed in this game, it's 4 mafia, 1 SK vs 15 town. So 1 in 4. This is what I talking about in post 473 (shortened):

"As far as newbies can be scum too - certainly true. But that means you're attacking someone for being new, and the chances of them being scum are simply random (1/4 in this case, from initial setup)." "I'm looking for a better-than-random lynch today."

Other posts of yours are more explanatory, though:

Okay look: I do not think that a newbie reversing their position is a scumtell. I do believe a newbie lurking under pressure is a scumtell. I'm not reversing my position on the first scumtell at all.

This is phrased much better. You are explicitly claiming newbie town do not lurk - I'm a bit skeptical of that but there may be something to it. In any case, it was the previous post, 468, that I took issue with.

[Oman]

Well...read my posts.

[MadCrawdad]

Ah sorry, misstype. It should be the other way around. I do several things whilst playing mafia.

Thanks. Just wanted to clarify, as there's been a couple of inconsistencies surrounding your FoS...

Elaborate on this please, Oman. Why does it look like scumbuddies?

While there's a good chance that Spacecase is scum,

In case he gets lynched he can't be accused of defending.

giving him a chance to defend himself is probably more prudent than just lynching him for lurking.

Puts forward a strange situation, give the lurker time to defend. He's lurking, which means he's had lots of time to defend, he's choosing not to. So the first sentence is "Oh ya, he's likely scum" the second is "Just give him more time" which is whats getting him lynched in the first place.

Any time I see a sentece contradict itself, it looks like scum.

In your response to Vollkan, you mention it was a contradiction in what I said that caused you to toss a seemingly OMGUS FoS my way. I don't really see the contradiction, but whatever, apparently you do.

So what I'm seeing here is that you think that 'SC is scum AND MadCrawdad (who has apparently contradicted himself) is also scum. Since SC AND MadCrawdad are scum, they must be scumbuddies...'

While there's a good chance that Spacecase is scum, giving him a chance to defend himself is probably more prudent than just lynching him for lurking.

This looks like scumbuddies to me.

Alignment based FoS: MCD

Now, here's your original FoS. You specifically say 'alignment based FoS'. This says something a little different to me than your response to Vollkan. This says 'SC is scum, and MadCrawdad is aligned with SC. Therefore MadCrawdad must be scum also.'

While you claim to suspect me of being scum in both of your responses, your reasons for doing so are somewhat different.

Hoping you can clarify the apparent contradiction, as you seem to have waivered once again.

[LaptopGun]

Haha. So Oman and MC are going at it. Guess that mean they arent scum buddies .

On a snap judgement, Oman has a weaker argument than MC.

FOS Oman

I'm having a hard time following your logic.

[somestrangeflea]

Due to the fact that my workload has increased to the point where playing mafia has become nigh-on impossible, I am officially getting out of all my games.

Mod: My sincerest apologies, but I will need to be replaced.

[The Fonz]

Guys, catchup and post tomorrow. Hectic stuff going down in other games.

[Cipher]

A few comments, as I'm still catching up on days 1 and 2:

I think I see who Justin investigated N1, but no idea on N0. I think he got a town result, so I'll steer clear of that person with my future investigations.

I don't really think that stats are very helpful in determining what roles we have. Either we have x number of cops/doctors/whatever or we don't - working out the odds doesn't help. I agree with what The Fonz said in post 413 about this.

I'm checking with the Mod whether I'd get a guilty result on the SK, as the PMs aren't clear on this and my result for Six Aces on night 0 was "Mafia".

Spacecase looks like the favoured lynch atm, I didn't like Rigel and dahill's votes just for lurking, and Oman did basically the same thing though he hid it a little bit better (because he's a vet?). I definitely got the impression that dahill hadn't really read the game and decided to just hop on the easiest wagon, but this might be a sign that he's reckless town rather than careless mafia. I just saw his post 464 and LOLed.

I don't particularly think that Oman is scum right now. I'll read back through Spacecase's older posts and see what I think.

[Cipher]

Well that didn't take long. There's not much to look at in Spacecase's posts except for the quick switch on kabenon, which was definitely suspect. He did throw vague suspicion on Jesse/me at the start of day 2, and he's been very reluctant to answer relevant questions today. I don't think he's a bad lynch, but I'm looking at a few other people before I decide who to vote for.

[dahill1]

I definitely got the impression that dahill hadn't really read the game and decided to just hop on the easiest wagon

30 pages!?!? come on man!
but seriously if spacecase comes up with a good argument i will gladly unvote

[dahill1]

EBWOP: 20 pages

[Cipher]

Hmmm... I've found a couple of players on re-read that I think might be good suspects, but I'm thinking that I might keep their names to myself at this point unless someone else talks about them. My theory is that if I say their names in the thread then there's a good chance that the scum will kill one of them tonight if they're a townie, which means I get no use from my investigation.

The other thing that I'm thinking is that we've probably got a doctor protecting me, so I won't give out innocent results in the thread any more unless the doctor dies or the player I investigated is in danger of being lynched. I figure that the less the scum know about who's confirmed town the better.

Can I get some feedback on whether these are good ideas?

[Oman]

So what I'm seeing here is that you think that 'SC is scum AND MadCrawdad (who has apparently contradicted himself) is also scum. Since SC AND MadCrawdad are scum, they must be scumbuddies...'

Actually. Its an If...Then... for me. Basically: IF one of you scum, I think the other likely is. IF he is not, then you might not be.

Now, here's your original FoS. You specifically say 'alignment based FoS'. This says something a little different to me than your response to Vollkan. This says 'SC is scum, and MadCrawdad is aligned with SC. Therefore MadCrawdad must be scum also.'

This is the one I mean. You are not scum independently, and my "case" of you is terrible as is. If SC is not scum, we'll I have very little.

On a snap judgement, Oman has a weaker argument than MC.

It is true.

[Shteven]

Yes Cipher, you'll be protected. And you certainly do want to investigate someone who's not night killed. Of course the best answer there is to actually investigate scum, as they certainly won't pick off their own.

I understand you're busy Fonz, but please do answer my previous question when you get around to catching up. Thanks.

[LaptopGun]

I don't know about your first idea. Hopefully someone else has an opinion on that.

The other thing that I'm thinking is that we've probably got a doctor protecting me, so I won't give out innocent results in the thread any more unless the doctor dies or the player I investigated is in danger of being lynched. I figure that the less the scum know about who's confirmed town the better.

I think this is a better idea. The mafia have me as a confirmed townie already and that could make me a target. I say, at this point, don't give them more ammo unless something comes up (like a wagon that's getting out of hand). Obviously, if you find a scum you can come out and tell us as it's not like you're keeping a secret.

[-TinVision-]

Perfectiondoesnotexist replaces somestrangeflea.

[vollkan]

Hmmm... I've found a couple of players on re-read that I think might be good suspects, but I'm thinking that I might keep their names to myself at this point unless someone else talks about them. My theory is that if I say their names in the thread then there's a good chance that the scum will kill one of them tonight if they're a townie, which means I get no use from my investigation.

This really boils down to a whole load of WIFOM.

Ie: If scum know you suspect someone (because you say so), and they know that you think they are likely to kill your suspect, it follows that they then have a good reason not to kill your suspect. In which case that gives you a good reason to investigate the suspect. In which case...etc.etc. round and round we go.

Short story: If you suspect someone, raise arguments and play as normal.

The other thing that I'm thinking is that we've probably got a doctor protecting me, so I won't give out innocent results in the thread any more unless the doctor dies or the player I investigated is in danger of being lynched. I figure that the less the scum know about who's confirmed town the better.

This is a good idea.

Of course, if a townie is put to L-1 and you happen to have an innocent on them, you should obviously raise that.

[Oman]

Vollkan's right, seperate night game and day game. A cop is Vanilla+ not a serperate idea.

[The Fonz]

I am a bit concerned that no one seems to be discussing anyone other than these two, although I myself am guilty of this. In an attempt to get something else started, I'll

FOS: The Fonz

. This is based on nothing solid - so please don't overreact. But you seem to be echoing generic townie sentiments, for example specifically in post 448 where you basically just repeated my post. Who do you think are scum, Fonz? And if it's spacecase/dahill, then for the sake of argument please include a few people who aren't top picks for the day - I haven't seen much scum hunting from you so far. If I looked closely, I'm sure I could find others, but you're up first.

Well, for starters, I'd say that the 'questioning Jesse/Cipher is just horrible play' thing is a generic town sentiment precisely because I forcefully argued for why this is the case.

But, yeah, in general, no-one's really gone out on a limb yet. My strong impression when I read that dahill post was 'If he thinks he's been caught in a lie, why the hell isn't he voting?' and I couldn't really help it if you'd said so first.

A few thoughts:

I'm with farside, its not growing too fast at all.

Oman, I think the issue that folks may have with the wagon's speed, is that 'haste makes waste.' While there's a good chance that Spacecase is scum, giving him a chance to defend himself is probably more prudent than just lynching him for lurking.

This seems to me a little strawmannish. No-one, as far as I can see, is arguing that Spacecase ought not to be given chance to defend himself.

I also find complaining about the speed of the wagon is often an argument forwarded by scum, when their buddies are being run up and they don't want to be seen directly defending. So I could very much see a spacecase/MCD connection.

As far as newbies can be scum too - certainly true. But that means you're attacking someone for being new, and the chances of them being scum are simply random (1/4 in this case, from initial setup). I'd be just as valid to single out Phate for destruction because he has a chance of being scum. I'm looking for a better-than-random lynch today. The Lynch All Lurkers is a point in your favor though Oman. I'll consider it for day 3 if we're both still here - and I'm not interested in lynching you day 2.

This isn't really the case. The point, to me, seems to be, that just being new is not in itself a defence against being scum. spacecase isn't being wagonned for being new- he's being wagonned for actions that might speak to insincerity. This is why we're trying to get him to elaborate on his thought process as much as possible, to see if we can see where he's coming from.

As I said, the better defence of spacecase, imho, is not that 'he's a newbie' but that, if scum, he didn't particularly stand to benefit from that action. It was pretty darn certain that KAb would be lynched anyway.

Also, fwiw, Oman has a history with lynch all lurkers as long as my arm.

In this post, you specifically say that I'm scumbuddies with SC. Even throw an alignment-based FoS my way. This specifically says to me 'If SC is scum, then MadCrawdad is scum.'


Now here you say basically that 'if SC is scum then MadCrawdad is town.'

Actually, it's a different contradiction. What Oman actually said was not 'IF SC is scum, MCD is town' but 'If SC is town, MCD is scum' implying that if SC is townie, you're likely scum trying to railroad. Now he's saying you might be a scumbuddy. This does seem very have cake/eat cake in terms of 'MCD is scummy either way.'

My post 473 was in reference to:

NEWBIES CAN BE SCUM TOO!! YOUR BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THIS THOUGHT THAT "NEWBIE" ALWAYS MEANS TOWN. NEW PEOPLE CAN BE SCUM ABOUT 1/3 OF THE TIME. RAWRRRRRR!

This makes it look like you're lynching someone for basically random odds.

Not to me it doesn't. It just means that newbies are as likely as anyone to be scum, and we shouldn't just give them a free pass for being new. (Yes, I hate the newbie card with a vengeance. Meta me if you like).

Also, everyone seems to have given dahill a pass on the basis of his response. I'm not sure, if the initial thing was really worth attacking, then his response was adequate. And LTG's attack on dahill's entrance was uncharacteristically forceful, to then drop it pretty much immediately... something's odd there. Not necessarily scummy-odd, but I'm not sure of the rationale.