Newbie 1823 - Game Over

[SIV36]

What can you guys make of the dead players wagons?

Adilms wagon: Awoo, Archwing, Virtuoso, Grendel, Maestro
Virtuoso's wagon: Archwing, Maestro, Awoo, Rubicon

Myself, I'm just musing that Maestro and Awoo slots are on both of them, but considering if maybe the team was taking turns (I do one day, you the other), Rubi is on one and Grendel is on the other. Or it might mean little.

[SIV36]

In coming onto Awoo's side, (rereading the game), this was somewhat of an eye-opener:

His intent was to get information about being a role-blocker. If he wanted us to read between the lines, he would have made it a little more simple and obvious.

Also, this is... like how much more moronic could you get? You're so over-analyzing this. You look ridiculous.

I kind of disagree. And also think you're being a massive asshole to a newbie who's excited about the game and trying to figure out the most important event in the game so far -- but that's not a scum tell, unfortunately.

If adilm29h flips RBer, I'm gonna be taking a hard look at everyone defending him right now.

It doesn't really matter, there's no world where I don't get you lynched by at least d2.


So far I think SIV is the most town-looking player.

I have mixed feelings about Maestro. Despite how he's choosing to express himself, he's at least examining things from different angles and not just taking a surface level look at things. Not sure if this is beyond his abilities as a scum player to fake.

(...or did someone already mention this and I'm unwittedly parrotting?)...

[SIV36]

@ Rubi, in the above quote, why did you tell Virtuoso that you were gonna get him lynched day 2?

[Rubicon]

He was my top scumread at the time. I guess I didn't have high hopes for convincing people to lynch him before adilm, given how suspicious adilm was acting.

[Rubicon]

What can you guys make of the dead players wagons?

Adilms wagon: Awoo, Archwing, Virtuoso, Grendel, Maestro
Virtuoso's wagon: Archwing, Maestro, Awoo, Rubicon

Myself, I'm just musing that Maestro and Awoo slots are on both of them, but considering if maybe the team was taking turns (I do one day, you the other), Rubi is on one and Grendel is on the other. Or it might mean little.

I personally wouldn't read much into it, except that we know scum was on adilm... but that's not saying a lot.

[Rubicon]

Half of my rambling is just reaction testing. Good show.

is it really though
:\

[Awoo]

HEY why are there 3 players in this game and not 5 - I'm still waiting!!

[SIV36]

Half of my rambling is just reaction testing. Good show.

is it really though
:\

Does this insinuate that you are sceptical of my position as town?

[Grendel]

Ugh, its been hard getting reinvested in this game after yesterday.

I need to find a good hold on something but I feel like there is reasonable doubt for everybody to be scum.

Naturally I'll outline and order my suspicions. I want to say that subbing into this game was probably a mistake on my part, no fuelt on you guys, I just feel like mafia isn't as fun as it used to be. I'm getting more busy all the time, and my attention for mafia continues to shrink in proportion to it. :/

[Grendel]

I was working on a posting thoughts on players one by one, but I have to leave soon. I only finished the one on Awoo.

My thoughts are that:

Awoo and SIV are more likely town then scum, and that Meastro, Rubicon are more likely scum then town.

Not sure if Meastro would be scum with Rubicon though. I think there is decent chance that Rubicon scum points to AWoo scum. I haven't explored assossitives a scum Maestro has yet.

I think its optimal to look more for team ties then reasons that players are scum individually at this point, so I'll be doing a lot of that when I take a closer look.

[Grendel]

Awoo

Spoiler:

Catchup of the game so far:

Adlim played horribly, even after his jokepost and I'm not surprised he got lynched. I do think there was scum support on the wagon, because this sort of scenario just SUCKS. This sort of scenario is defined as "when a townie plays against their win condition but scum would never do that but town would never do that but...", and the resulting lynch is just removing the worst player from the game instead of the scummiest. I'm going to go ahead and take a look if any people defended adlim but suggested no alternative, because that is probably the most telling information we'll get out of this.
[time warp]
Now that I'm done reading, that's maestro.
...
So far virtuoso gives off the image of a guy who just really likes optimal play, and I can understand his pushing on adlim for that. And because scum doesn't have any setups in which they know for sure there is no cop, asking to be copped is not a scum play day 1. It doesn't even work as WIFOM. TOWN

In conclusion

VOTE: Maestro - honorable mention to archwing.

This is hypocop, right? I peeked on virtuoso last night.

This is what I was seeing when I first read through the game! Minus the Virtso being town part. I’m assuming that is why Awoo/rubi was acting the way they were about me getting caught up. It is something to consider.

Spoiler:

Subject: Newbie 1823 - Night two

tl;dr Problems with arch: he's not scumhunting, and if you disagree with me on that, he's not going for his scumreads.


ARTICLE ONE: COMPLACENCY
-----------------------------------------------------
He's just going with what every one else is doing instead of hunting scum.

177 (readslist) is what has really sold it for me so far. I've played scum, and I know how easy it is to say "X player is town". That's pretty much the embodiment of this entire read list. It blows my mind that of the 3 people that he has not gone into detail about are the 3 at the bottom of the list.

Not only is he complacent with just going along with an adlim lynch, but he waffles back and forth on it, which is nonsensical. Note the difference between 107 and 123. In the span of 20 posts, he has said "adlim is my top scumread", "adlim is a free mislynch for scum", and "I'd be willing to lynch him". <-- See this last one? This is not how you treat your top scumread. You're not "just okay with" getting your top scumread lynched as town.
Then in 153 "I want to stay away from a d1 policy lynch if we could" -> Note the complacency, again.
My avatar is so hot it should be illegal. I feel so good every time I see myself post.
13 Contrast this to the rest of the initial votes on adlim. Even rubicon's nonvote. I don't like the tone of it. This might be nitpicking, but the whole uncertain tone overarching the post seems to be more of unsure scum saying "Oh, are we doing this now?".


ARTICLE TWO: SUSPICIOUS WAY OF THINKING
-----------------------------------------------------
158 Why is this even here? You sure aren't doing it yourself. Did your partner give you some advice pregame? Now that I've seen this front and center example, what else is there..
154 Frequent reference to mylo/lylo is scummy because it reminds me of scum planning out their ideal mylo/lylo. Why do I say frequent when this is the first time I mention it? Read his references to not wanting adlim in m/lylo. Ideally, we win the game before we ever get there.

PEDIT: Most recent post is just more "Actually I disagree with that scumread, I think he's town." WHO IS SCUM AND WHY, MY DUDE?

I objectively disagree on the prospect that focusing on building town is a scum thing. Play with Vets NachoMama or Hoopla, and you’ll see how powerful the town POE pool can be.
I think a newbie like Awoo is less likely to bus then a veteran player. After all the bus in 1822 was after his scum buddy outted himself, so that isn’t a good example to draw from. Up until that point I think his buddy was mentioned minimally as a town-null read thanks to meta.

Rubi, I'm amazed that you think that's it's an interesting point that maestro is still alive, if you don't go anywhere with it. I can see the (SE) next to your name, you shouldn't be looking at garbage information and thinking "hmmm... very interesting!". The fact that you went and called it NAI and interesting in the same post one after another makes no sense to me, and looks like scum giving more attention to a weak useless theory against a townie without getting too committed to anything.

333 Sorry about the "buddying", I just can't help but refute false statements when I see them.

Rubi, why did you proceed to do hypo the post after I showed why we shouldn't?

Siv, don't continue with the whole "maestro is scum or tracker" thing. You're basically PR fishing at this point.

And if you're town, you will know why this is a bad thing.

This looks like it could be a scum/scum interaction?
Awoo is mouthing off to Rub without scum reading him here, but it creates the appearance of scum reading to a player that is skimming.

Hold on guys hear me out for a second [Conspiracy theory] [Birth control in tap water] [2017]:

V asked to be copped at the end of day 1. As townies we know there is 33% of a cop being in the game. HOWEVER, mafia knows a bit more then that:

if roleblocker: 50%
if no roleblocker: 25%

So assume V is a mafia goon partnered with a mafia goon and he is asking to be copped. Tracker/jailor (75%) can't catch him since his partner will do the killing. Next day no one immediately comes out with a redcheck on him, and he does hypoclaim. Scum gets information and town doesn't since there's 75% no cop from his POV.

Conspiracy?????

[/spoiler]
My opinion of that was Virt might have been trying to wifom the PO-lice off him. I actually forgot to bring that up later lol.

Newbie players making big, (well thought out from their pov), moon logic posts about things that really can’t be known until the game is finished is usually a strong town tell for me.

Subject: Newbie 1823 - Night two

I'll comment on a few things:

V/FP -> FP townread V hard until things went sour and then he replaced out. Easiest case.
Rubi -> actually probably isn't scum, he's not hard bussing fancy or V at the moment, he's voting one and trashing the other. Keep an eye on his actions regardless.
V/Maestro -> It is a bold play to bus starting day 1 and never stopping. I hope this isn't the case, but we are lynching V today and he if he flips red we can put more attention into this, green and we throw it out.
Maestro/FP -> Might require a more thorough read, but he appears to be the one who started going on FP d2. What a suicidal thing to do when town is focused elsewhere, no?
Maestro/Rubi -> We have lost

Two simplest cases: V/FP, V/M. If V is town -> FP/(shit man idk but we lynch him tmr? i think rubi makes more sense here)

I'm just having such a hard time imagining the universe in which V is actually just the worst townie known to man. I played a game in which he was town, he was so much more gamesolvey. His play is so comically bad that it's leading me in favour of thinking he's being bussed, but based on the vote counts, arch is conftown and maestro is the only one who could be realistically doing it. We shall discuss this further tomorrow over V's body.

...hey come to think of it if we hit scum today, that means arch actually has pretty damn good odds of jailing last scum, and even if scum NK to fake a guilty, then we still have a mislynch that is probably going to end up on the scummiest remaining person anyways.

There is little consistency in his reads. Like having fluid reads is one thing, this is no consistency what so ever. It seems like every time Awoo made a wall posts the reads had shifted, and Awoo seems to have no strong town/scum reads beyond short intervals where he really calls out a player or two.

Virt goes from super town to never town like whoa. I also dislike the “if Virt is town he bad town >:/” logic. The thought behind it being meta felt stretched to justify the means.

THAT SAID, I don’t think that Awoo is naturally inclined to bus so I think that he doesn’t make pushes at everybody. The effort it takes to come up with lots of angles along with how bad it can make a player look in makes it not worthwhile. Awoo made swings at my slot, Maestro, and to a lesser extent SIV/Rubcon. They got a bit of heat too, but not enough to rule them out if Awoo were mafia since it never looked like they were at risk of getting lynched. I was really hoping to find a player that Awoo utterly shoe horned through the game for base reasons. I guess not.

-/-/-/-/-

I think its the effort of making a Varity of cases against players and having unreasonably fast reads that actually make Awoo look townie to me. I didn't like it from play perspective but from his pervious game, and newbies in general, I think it makes more sense from town after mulling it over.

THe lack a strong assossitives also point towards town Awoo.

[Rubicon]

resists urge to write wallpost

[Rubicon]

I think its optimal to look more for team ties then reasons that players are scum individually at this point

Kind of disagree with this.

[Rubicon]

Awoo, would be useful to me if you could respond to the above post by Grendel.

[Awoo]

So basically I'm not scum, but if I am I'm bussing rubi? OK cool theory but kinda useless to me, eh? Do you really think im going to live to d4 if rubi flips red?

Ok, if you want to know why my read of V flipped, it's because the only reason I had to TR him was his cop me wifom, I didn't think much him after that wore off on me.

What usefulness are you thinking of rubi

[Rubicon]

What do you think of SIV's 623?

[Huntress]

Maestro has been prodded.

[Rubicon]

There is little consistency in his reads. Like having fluid reads is one thing, this is no consistency what so ever. It seems like every time Awoo made a wall posts the reads had shifted, and Awoo seems to have no strong town/scum reads beyond short intervals where he really calls out a player or two.

Would you quote some examples of this please?

[SIV36]

So basically I'm not scum, but if I am I'm bussing rubi? OK cool theory but kinda useless to me, eh? Do you really think im going to live to d4 if rubi flips red?

Ok, if you want to know why my read of V flipped, it's because the only reason I had to TR him was his cop me wifom, I didn't think much him after that wore off on me.

What usefulness are you thinking of rubi

Distancing?

[SIV36]

Yeah awoo, you're not gonna be night killed.

[SIV36]

Awoo is definitely scum. Now I'm wondering if Rubi is his partner.

[Grendel]

Spoiler:

I don't like Awoo speaking for me, but like, he's basically right and I don't really know what else to say. In general, I hate replacements, but yay for this one.

@SIV, you're jumping to conclusions if you thought I was furiously jerking off over adilm being for-sure-certainly-1000%-not-a-Roleblocker. All

I

remember mentioning was that adilm being NewbTown rather than NewbScum made

MUCH

more sense given the chain of events I was seeing. And I've seen it all before.

Point 1 - My Opinion That adilm Was Town

: Newbies (and adilm is a Newbie, come at me if you want to fight me on that) do not post the way adilm posted if they are Scum. Period. Find me evidence of it and I'll either have a statistical argument with you about that or we can agree to disagree.

Point 2 - adilm Flash-wagon Probably Had At Least 1 Scum On It

: In a word? Numbers. In a few words? If you need the majority of players for a lynch, and you basically had that -1 (adilm got to L-1, didn't he? I honestly can't remember...) then you've probably got Scum on a wagon. Period.

Point 3 - A Lynch Is Better Than None

: Hard to grasp for Newbies, but when your primary tool for making your way through a game is in jeopardy, you should probably make use of it even if the result isn't ideal. Scum have a NK, and

as a whole

, the Town just has the Lynch. Sure, if you're a PR you have other tools at your disposal, but unless you're literally a mod-confirmed Bulletproof Innocent Child Cop you're relying on trust to get others to believe whatever results you might be able to get and the ultimate result is the same - the Lynch. Even if I thought adilm was Town, I hammered them because they would've been a liability in MyLo / LyLo, by which I mean that there was too much baggage at that point to think their play would've improved enough to foster trust us as Town members. I'm sure I'm not the only one who holds that opinion. Scum would've just been left alive long enough for him to become lynchbait, so all the better to get rid of him early if I was one of few that thought he was Town. In 99% of cases, a Lynch is better than No Lynch. Fight me.

Considering P1, adilm was a policy lynch, something I would fight against if I agree with P1. But keeping in mind P3, and remembering that it was basically just myself and V around when I hammered, I didn't see anybody jumping onto a counterwagon in time to get anybody else lynched Day 1. And if we don't lynch, we lose our only tool in this game to get the information we need. So don't fucking argue with me.

Vote V with me. Let's get this shit done.

VOTE: Virtuoso

I agree that everything here is mechanically correct play. Suspecting early wagon, and hammering adliem. I don't think any of it wouldn't work to benefit Meastro as scum though. Its not like Meastro was hard pushing for an altnate wagon to Adlim right? He swooped in when there wasn't really time let to start something new, and took the hammer. Situations like that I think town Maestro would have put more effort into avoiding.

Really, SIV? That's simpleton-level thinking

But if you want to try and argue that, in those other 3 games, was the person Scum hard-defended their partner...?

You can't have your logically fallacious cake and eat it too, dude

The line of dialogue starting from this post and going down several posts is distinctly not a s/s interaction between Meastro, and SIV.

Like, I'm annoyed at your seeming indifference to whether 1/7th of the playerlist is actually

playing the game

And then another part of me is wondering what you've done that couldn't be described as "indifferent"

I know I mentioned it earlier, but Maestros interpretations of my predecessors play are awful. Its possible that Meastro hasn't played with FP before. Fancy is one of those players that has a notably impassive attitude while posting. So framing this as scum is really wrong. I was wondering if Meastro would go on to agknowledge this, but Meastro never responded to that point, or anything else I have had to say up to this point.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Virtuoso

Nope, not necessarily. If Arch is telling the truth, Scumteam is two Goons, so you would've known you still have to secure a mislynch this Day phase and next to get your win. Or at least get a ML today to get to MyLo, but in that MyLo you'd lose advantage because you'd have just quick-hammered the Day before. ScumV is still valid for every reason it was before, now including that shifty-ass WIFOM in the wake of a claim that probably isn't going to be CCed.

Reading Virtso's iso I've noticed more so now then before how much goal posting is dedicated to, directly (indirectly), about Virtso. I wouldn't exactly call it a tunnel, it feels like one with how sparse reads are outside of a small pool of (Virtuoso, Adleim, Archwing).

Maestro had Virtuoso/arch as scum team. No open town reads, and some passive aggressive needling at SIV, and my slot that may be a scum read, but he sort of dropped it? I guess to help look like he was doing more then he was?

Going back to day one his town read on Aldiem looks like white knighting for town cred. Maestro also helps perpetuate a aggressive atmosphere between players that often causes apathy in newbie games. Unforentally not a scum tell, but definitely annoying. I don't think he points to a particular team, its more like SIV/Maestro is unlikely. Unless Awoo dove in to bus hard that team is unlikely. Rubicon also had a weird post or two with Meastro.

[SIV36]

Actually, I decided to compile who's everyone's scumreads so far in d3 and something odd came up:

Grendel = Maestro + Rubicon
Awoo = Grendel + Rubicon
Rubicon = Maestro, SIV
Maestro = Rubicon, (?)
Me = Awoo, (anyone)

That's to the best of my knowledge. (For instance, Maestro didn't really leave much, just passed something to Rubicon quickly before leaving)

Rubicon is suspected by everyone. That kind of makes it seem less likely that he's scum, unless he's being really badly bussed.

[Grendel]

My prevous post was on Maestro btw

SIV36

Spoiler:

Nah forget it

VOTE: Archwing

PEDIT: Siv, the stuff below the stars makes no sense. No one actually thought adlim was specifically the RB. I don't know if you're making up intentionally dumb scum play or not, but if you're trying to fake a townslip I don't buy it.

On day 1, Maestro had no doubts that adilm was not a roleblocker. He was certain on it. He was the only one that made it known that he was absolutely sure of it. For the rest of us towns, none of us could be that sure.

So how in hell was Maestro so sure adilm was not a roleblocker? Even though he stated that it didn't have logical progression, this still shouldn't have confirmed adilm as a non-roleblocker.

As far as I know, there is only 2 explanations on how maestro can be so sure of adilm. Either maestro was a town tracker, or he was mafia. If maestro was a town tracker, then he would have been an easy target for the mafia as a night-kill. If I was a mafia, then maestro would have been gone. Before night one, I was sure maestro was a tracker. And I'm counting on the mafia also coming to that realization.

But maestro is still around, and Fenraiser got killed instead. Maestro's knowledge of adilm's not-roleblockeyness didn't even seem to fizz on the mafia.

Paranoia, as I already believe I’ve mentioned. Makes this slot look town.

Also, I should say that its rare to actually see scum role fish. That’s usally a town derp up due to scum keeping power role hunting and the like to themselves, not broadcast it to everybody else. Its an obvious net negative that most townies seem to forget, but scum are hyper aware of.

Spoiler:

@FancyPants + other confused people

From what I gather, if everyone says they are cop and they peeked a player, then [if] and [when] a cop gets lynched or killed, we can look back to that person and see that their claims each day were actually real. It also helps hide the cop in plain sight.

**************

Another reason why I suspect Maestro, is that based on his play D1, he really should have been mafia's target night kill. If maestro was town oriented, then mafia should have probably suspected Maestro as a town tracker (what other reason would maestro have for being so hard-confirmed adlim was not a roleblocker?) This makes maestro being still alive day 2 very concerning for me.

That is, unless mafia wanted me to believe that. Or there is something all together different going on that I'm not aware of.

If SIV is scum suspecting Maestro of being a town power role the Meastro would have been killed night one. Its not impossible that SIV could say that with the intention of hoping it allotted him town points, I think though that I've only seen scum fake this kind of intel a few times my whole career. Ei few enough that I feel safe considering this to be town posting here.

Spoiler:

Subject: Newbie 1823 - Night two

Comments:
Adilm's claim as well as his reasons are faulty. Likely scum.

Virtuoso seems pretty good, as does Fancy (would also like to see more posts) and SIV and Clemency.

Maestro and Rubicon are kind of iffy atm b/c [look at the entries on them in my post], Maestro more so. Rubi is iffy, but could see Rubi as town. Although, Maestro's logic is good, but the order of his concern seems out of place.

Arch is null, but might actually turn up as scum.

Worth looking into.

Just read it. To me, Fen's suspicions are interesting, but I don't think he was killed because of them. What about that post was worth looking into to you, Virtuoso?

A slight point against SIV. This is how scum use night kill association against town.They wait for somebody else to bring it up, and when a player comes to a conclusion that benefits scum the scum lord endorses it.

Spoiler:

Subject: Newbie 1823 - Night two

I don't think it's virtuoso.

This may sound like the lamest reason why someone is town, but if he was a mafia, and he spent all this time just lurking and barely posting, shouldn't/wouldn't he be really ashamed to have won/lost a mafia game in such a fashion? It doesn't prove him being a town, but for me, it gives him some credit. I still don't like how he hasn't really done that much in having any suspicion on anyone besides adilm and me, and him being dodgy. My intuition is telling me it's a bad lynch.

In realizing that I'm changing my mind that I could trust Maestro, I think the team is Awoo and Maestro.

It is natural uncertainty. However I don’t really think that Virtso had much town stuff going for him. In retrospect the lack of a viable counter wagon at EoD was a red flag. That really got lost in how sup par Virtiso’s play was yesterday.

Anyways I don’t think that SIV!Scum would back track so close to lylo. To an outside viewer it means nothing as the lynch was basically decded at that point, maybe even scummy because he got cold feet. I understand this, but realistically I think that SIV scum wouldn’t make that attempt to differentiate himself from the crowd when he was so close to sequring that lynch. He also had low accountability for his actions due to the nature surround that wagon as well so its not like players were going to call him out for taking a scummy slot on the wagon.

Spoiler:

Subject: Newbie 1823 - Night two

Oh gosh Maestro you have a point. I am a pretty big idiot. Why would I ever argue with that? I'm just so biased on my own personal experience.

I really should be voting virtuoso, shouldn't I? It's just so logical and completely lacking in fallacy.

Gosh, why didn't I do this before?
VOTE: virtuoso

Guys, I think we should do what maestro and awoo says because they are more superior in intellect.

*Bows to the gracious highness*

Spoiler:

Subject: Newbie 1823 - Night two

This would be some weird theater if SIV were scum with Either Maestro, or Awoo. It highly patronizing, emotionally tilted, and unexpected between two scum.
Like scum distancing that I usally see is straight forward insults, possibly a scum read. It usally “feels” dry, even if the words get harsh.

My play being sub-optimal and emotionally reactive, it's almost like fancypants is tripping over himself, drooling at the opportunity to turn me into the perfect lynch candidate. Yet he overlooks the fact that he is also making nebulous accusations at me while doing his subtle manipulative throw of suspicion towards me.

Okay, this is really minor, but I’ve played some games where scum have used descriptive to make another’s action’s sound scummy via rhetorical word usage alone. (Think of a Politian describing their rivals actions) I don’t have enough data to feel this is a strong scum tell (I've seen town do it as well), but I wanted to bookmark just in case.

-/-/-/-/-

SIV comes through strongly as town for me, and the worries I have are small and probably over thinking things.

[SIV36]

Assuming the mafia team is NOT bussing, and taking into consideration the list above then I conclude:

Grendel is Town
Rubicon is Town

Awoo and Maestro are scum.

It's a sound argument, but it hinges on the premise that scum isn't bussing.