Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Xylthixlm]

Adel, do you agree that if you later say your vote on Matt_S was not serious, we should lynch you?

unless he is mafia and Guardian really is a Sk, then

yes

. In my opinion it is a sincere vote.

damn double negatives.. the meaning got lost.

I think tht only Guardian and Oman should be the lynch for today

.

However, now they're the only ones you want to lynch? That also seems odd, so I want an explanation first. Why did you change your mind?

I didn't

. Lynching Oman is a just a much higher priority than lynching Guardian to me based on my assessment of player's scummyness, but I also know that Guardian can nail scum easily, and it is conceivable that he is really a non-sane cop.

Adel hasn't changed her mind -> Adel didn't think Matt_S should be the lynch when she voted him -> Her vote on Matt_S was not serious -> Adel agrees that we should lynch her.

Vote Adel

======================================================

Votecount #40

Guardian - 2 (Erg0, Oman)

Matt_S - 2 (Guardian, Adel)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Adel - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 3 (Matt_S, Patrick, Jitsu, )

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Erg0]

*facepalm*

Why are we so intent on self-destructing?

[Adel]

scum often see me as being an easy lynch.

[Matt_S]

Unvote, Vote Guardian

for the much safer alternative.

[Xylthixlm]

scum often see me as being an easy lynch.

After you're lynched we'll look to see who was bussing you.

[Incognito]

I think Guardian's at L-1 now, yes?

[Erg0]

I do believe so.

[Adel]

@ Xylthixlm: nice trick. In IRC that probably would've worked.

You set it up, you waited for the contradiction to resolve.

Here is how it really went down:
first I said

he replaced in thinking that he would be mafia, and walk away from a "2 dead power roles from night 1" disaster for the town with one win and one loss.

On the other hand, Guardian is hella good at identifying scum,
so I'm willing to unvote and let him direct my vote for this day:
I will vote for whomever he votes for (save myself) and if we don't
lynch scum, we'll lynch Guardian tomorrow. If there are two deaths
tonight unless one of them is mafia, we will lynch Guardian tomorrow.

heh, I just thought of a bastard mod role:
bastard mod cop/vig role pm
You are a cop. Each night you can investigate another player by sending me a name via PM.
You win with the town

mod note Player is really a paranoid-cop and vig. He both kills, and gets a "guilty" on each player he investigates.

then Guardian voted for Matt_S, so I did as well with

Patrick wrote:
So whilst we can't know for certain, I find it reasonably likely that his lack of motivation to do anything today is because he was scum.


Somehow I find reasonably likely that he was a cop and was like "well, I'm fucked" and gave up.

Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be. vote:matt_S

note that "Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be." is the reason I gave even though I linked matt_s to opie as scum not the other way around during day 1.

It was a serious vote, just not for the reason I gave. I said that I would follow Guardian's vote, and so I did.

For scum, especially one who plays so much irc mafia or scumchat mafia, it is easy to make the mistake of identifying a case that appears significant when it actually is only a well-crafted illusion.

Xylthixlm should definitely be on the list of probable scum worth considering for today's lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

Translation: "I don't play IRC but I'll make up some intelligent-sounding bullshit anyways. OMGUS"

[Adel]

Translation: "I don't play IRC but I'll make up some intelligent-sounding bullshit anyways. OMGUS"

translation: saying OMGUS discredits anyone's case, so i'm going to say it. I'm used to people tl:dr coherent points, so I'll neglect to mention that I'm not voting for Guardian or responding to the fact that Adel exploded my case.

[Xylthixlm]

In a way, this is hilarious. Especially the bit about "coherent points".

[Guardian]

For all the posts that have ensued following my two, precious little has been said analytically about my defense (Patrick commented, notably), and almost nothing has been said analytically about my cases.

Many say they find the case on Matt_S unpersuasive. Why? Did you actually read through his posts when you said that? Did you even go back and look at the dichtomy between 14 and 18 that I referenced? Or are you lazy/scum, stuck in the Guardian (or Guardian/Oman) frame of reference, and unwilling to think critically about the game?

Likewise, no one has commented substantively about my cases on Adel or Oman. Some have said "looks good" "looks bad" or whatever, but no real thought is going into this. I spent quite a bit of time thinking about who the most probable scum were, and refining the post where I made the cases to make them as concise and easy to understand as possible. I ask that you inspect them and comment on them, and not play based on feelings about "who should be lynch candidates". I've made it clear that I'm willing to try and address any questions you might have, and make my reasoning clearer or more transparent. Yet almost no one has reacted to my posts by asking me questions, instead commenting about me and Adel and Oman as if I weren't in the room.

I believe I'm at -2 now (though everyone else is saying -1, so I am a bit worried), and there really hasn't been much discussion at all of the defense and arguments I've presented, and few have tried to interact with me to get a read on me or allow me to explain what I believe more clearly. I'm very disappointed in that.

---

Patrick, wouldn't a scumbag have as much if not more incentive to defend himself from lynch than a cop? I'm not sure I understand your assumption.

Incognito, why is the lynch today me? Why not address my defense and cases, instead of taking the easy route and calling me 'obvscum'? You vote Adel, then switch back. Why?

Matt_S, you say I am the safer lynch than Adel. Why? Because I'm voting you? Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

I can't say I find Adel's play through the last few pages very townlike. I'm sure she'll call it information gathering, or something. Adel, if you think Oman should be the lynch (or me), then why vote Matt_S with me? Why not say "Guardian, that's nice, but I think Oman should be the lynch if not you." Why vote with me? And you say you need convincing about Matt_S from me -- what do you think of my case? Have you, at least, read through his posts as I've asked?

Oman's 976 is completely content less, and his not addressing my arguments at all, not even commenting on them, not even pretending to, is disturbing, and fits in perfectly with what I've said about how he'd love for me to just roll over and die without my thoughts on the game being considered, possibly allowing focus to shift back to him.

Erg0, you say Oman is probably scum, but are voting me anyways and not addressing the case I've made. Why? Why are you not interested in lynching Matt_S? Your 986 makes a lot of sense re: Adel, and shows that both her assumption is flawed and her approach is wrong if that is indeed the method she is persuing. Despite realizing this and the other inconsistencies she has, you think I'm better?

[Incognito]

First,

unvote

, while we discuss.

Likewise, no one has commented substantively about my cases on Adel or Oman. Some have said "looks good" "looks bad" or whatever, but no real thought is going into this.

This is bogus. I had already considered the possibility of Oman being scum many posts ago and outlined my suspicions very thoroughly. I certainly didn't say anything like "looks good" or "looks bad"; I gave pretty clear reasons for why I felt Oman is scum, and I had my vote on him for the majority of Day 2. Look through my posting history to read through the case I outlined against him and you'll notice that quite contrary to what you've said, I gave pretty substantial reason for voting for Oman, as did Patrick.

I believe I'm at -2 now (though everyone else is saying -1, so I am a bit worried), and there really hasn't been much discussion at all of the defense and arguments I've presented, and few have tried to interact with me to get a read on me or allow me to explain what I believe more clearly. I'm very disappointed in that.

No offense, Guardian, but you're replacing a guy who claimed Cop right at the end of Day 1 and lurked during Day 2. He reasoned that his lurking during Day 1 was due to the fact that he was the cop and even after that information got out into the open he STILL lurked. It's kinda hard to trust someone who does that especially since he's active on the site still. You yourself even mentioned from your very opening post "why aren't they lynching the obvobvobv scum". For you to now mention everything you're mentioning seems like a huge appeal to emotion, and I can't help but contemplate the fact that you may be attempting some confusion tactic to help out your new alignment (although I do agree with your Oman suspicions).

Incognito, why is the lynch today me? Why not address my defense and cases, instead of taking the easy route and calling me 'obvscum'? You vote Adel, then switch back. Why?

I addressed your case against Matt_S, and I mentioned my feelings about it. I wasn't lazy like you claim; I

did

look at his posts in isolation and just didn't get the same feeling you did.

And I didn't switch back. If you were paying attention, you'd realize that my vote was on Oman for the whole of Day 2. I voted for CO initially but then began to feel like Oman might be the better lynch. Then CO went lurky... it's kinda hard to accept a replacement's posts under those circumstances.

Anyway, I'm fairly confident that Oman is scum, and I could go for his lynch (as I've mentioned numerous times). We might be able to test out Guardian's cop claim tomorrow if anything, assuming we lynch correctly today or some type of cross-kill thing happens tonight. Therefore I'll go back to my original vote.

Vote: Oman

[Erg0]

Fair enough, I suppose I haven't explicitly responded to your posts.

Frankly, yes I am closed-minded about today's lynch. There is almost certainly nothing you can say that will make me decide not to lynch you. The meaning behind CO's actions is basically down to personal interpretation, and you didn't raise any points there that I hadn't already considered. There is a possibility that he is a paranoid cop caught in a bad situation, but I've modded him both as a cop and as scum, and he looks more like scum to me here. He was still somewhat lurky but more ready to put his views forward and be proactive as town. As scum he was wagonny and withdrawn, as he was here.

Matt_S is on my second tier of suspicion, as is Adel. I'm still pretty sold on the you/Oman/Xyl combo, though. I see what you're saying about them, but I just can't see either of them as a good lynch today when we've got such a strong candidate ahead of them. The problem you have is that your role is entirely unverifiable and you will probably not be nightkilled whether you're a cop or scum. You present this as a positive, but it's only a positive if we actually believe you.

If you really are town, your cases will get a serious review tomorrow. As it stands, I'm not going to take direction from the man with his neck in the noose. As I said earlier, we don't have the luxury of a mislynch today, and I believe that you represent our best chance of avoiding that scenario.

The fact that you said you'd investigated your former self on "night 0" doesn't help either.

[Patrick]

Patrick, wouldn't a scumbag have as much if not more incentive to defend himself from lynch than a cop? I'm not sure I understand your assumption.

I think a protown powerole would be more willing to post in this situation than a scum. If ChaosOmega is town, I think he'd want to be on record with his suspicions at the very least. I could see scum clamming up if they think that they won't be able to talk their way out of trouble, and that by continuing the act they might just leave links to scumbuddies. A cop would have no such disincentive. I've seen doomed scum stop posting in the past, and I know that in his position, I'd be far more likely to post as town than as scum. I also feel, although it may be somewhat naive, that ChaosOmega as cop would realise that if we mislynch him we'd be in dire straits, and that would motivate him to try harder to defend himself. I say it may be naive, because I'm not sure if he's the kind of player that would feel any sense of duty to the town as an innocent.

It seems fairly intuitive to me *shrug*.

[Guardian]

First,

unvote

, while we discuss.

Thank you for the discussion, this is progress. I'm not asking you to suddenly adopt all my positions, I'm asking you to engage in dialog with me. Thank you for this post.

Likewise, no one has commented substantively about my cases on Adel or Oman. Some have said "looks good" "looks bad" or whatever, but no real thought is going into this.

This is bogus. I had already considered the possibility of Oman being scum many posts ago and outlined my suspicions very thoroughly. I certainly didn't say anything like "looks good" or "looks bad"; I gave pretty clear reasons for why I felt Oman is scum, and I had my vote on him for the majority of Day 2. Look through my posting history to read through the case I outlined against him and you'll notice that quite contrary to what you've said, I gave pretty substantial reason for voting for Oman, as did Patrick.

That's great -- but no one commented on

my cases

is what I am saying. You and Patrick indeed did comment on Oman earlier. Addressing my case and saying "yeah, that looks good and it agrees with my thoughts in post X" would have been helpful for my remembering that you'd made your positions on Oman clear earlier.

I believe I'm at -2 now (though everyone else is saying -1, so I am a bit worried), and there really hasn't been much discussion at all of the defense and arguments I've presented, and few have tried to interact with me to get a read on me or allow me to explain what I believe more clearly. I'm very disappointed in that.

No offense, Guardian, but you're replacing a guy who claimed Cop right at the end of Day 1 and lurked during Day 2. He reasoned that his lurking during Day 1 was due to the fact that he was the cop and even after that information got out into the open he STILL lurked. It's kinda hard to trust someone who does that especially since he's active on the site still. You yourself even mentioned from your very opening post "why aren't they lynching the obvobvobv scum". For you to now mention everything you're mentioning seems like a huge appeal to emotion, and I can't help but contemplate the fact that you may be attempting some confusion tactic to help out your new alignment (although I do agree with your Oman suspicions).

I'm not trying to use a confusion tactic... but of course I am trying to help out my alignment. Your diction seems weird to me; remove the words confusion tactic and new, and your sentence is "I can't help but contemplate the fact that you may be attempting some tactic to help out your alignment". I sure am attempting a tactic to help out my alignment; making cases, trying to get people to get around the suspicion of me, etc. I'm not sure how using a tactic to decrease suspicion of me reflects poorly on my alignment. I'm not trying to use any confusion tactic -- ask any questions you might have of me, and I'll try and clear up any inclarities and remove any confusion.

Incognito, why is the lynch today me? Why not address my defense and cases, instead of taking the easy route and calling me 'obvscum'? You vote Adel, then switch back. Why?

I addressed your case against Matt_S, and I mentioned my feelings about it. I wasn't lazy like you claim; I

did

look at his posts in isolation and just didn't get the same feeling you did.

I'm happy you did; if I missed you saying explicitly that you did that, I apologize; from my reading over the last few pages, I got the bad feeling that it might have been the case that no one had read through him.

And I didn't switch back. If you were paying attention, you'd realize that my vote was on Oman for the whole of Day 2. I voted for CO initially but then began to feel like Oman might be the better lynch.

Indeed, I got mixed up there.

Then CO went lurky... it's kinda hard to accept a replacement's posts under those circumstances.

To address this and partly your thoughts earlier in your post -- I definitely empathize with your suspicion. I'm trying to bring points up that might allow people to get around their suspicion of me, because I know my alignment. Had I replaced in for some other role, I'd have had quite a hard time believing that C_O was town. But I replaced into his role, know he was/I am town, and it is my job to try and convince you guys that that's the truth.

Anyway, I'm fairly confident that Oman is scum, and I could go for his lynch (as I've mentioned numerous times). We might be able to test out Guardian's cop claim tomorrow if anything, assuming we lynch correctly today or some type of cross-kill thing happens tonight.

That's very a reasonable stance; I'm going to think long and hard about who to investigate tonight if I get the chance; maybe I'm just paranoid it will be meaningless, but maybe I'm insane and I'll nail someone.

Therefore I'll go back to my original vote.

Vote: Oman

Could you explain in a bit more detail why you're not getting the vibe from Matt_S and are from Oman? I'll definitely go back and re-read your and Patrick's posts; as of now I haven't read them particularly carefully, I've only read Matt_S, Oman, Adel with an extremely peeled back eye.

[Erg0]

Incognito: How do you propose that we test out Guardian's claim tomorrow?

[Guardian]

Fair enough, I suppose I haven't explicitly responded to your posts.

Thanks for talking now.

Frankly, yes I am closed-minded about today's lynch. There is almost certainly nothing you can say that will make me decide not to lynch you. The meaning behind CO's actions is basically down to personal interpretation, and you didn't raise any points there that I hadn't already considered. There is a possibility that he is a paranoid cop caught in a bad situation, but I've modded him both as a cop and as scum, and he looks more like scum to me here. He was still somewhat lurky but more ready to put his views forward and be proactive as town. As scum he was wagonny and withdrawn, as he was here.

I'm not sure there's anything I can say to respond when you make it clear that there's nothing I can say.

Matt_S is on my second tier of suspicion, as is Adel. I'm still pretty sold on the you/Oman/Xyl combo, though. I see what you're saying about them, but I just can't see either of them as a good lynch today when we've got such a strong candidate ahead of them.

Which them are you talking about? Either implies two, I am confused.

The problem you have is that your role is entirely unverifiable and you will probably not be nightkilled whether you're a cop or scum. You present this as a positive, but it's only a positive if we actually believe you.

If you really are town, your cases will get a serious review tomorrow. As it stands, I'm not going to take direction from the man with his neck in the noose.

Hm. I'm really town, why not give my cases a serious review today, at least, before you lynch me? What can doing so hurt?

As I said earlier, we don't have the luxury of a mislynch today, and I believe that you represent our best chance of avoiding that scenario.

Well, I agree with you, we may not have the luxury of a mislynch -- but that in and of itself is not a reason to lynch me. From my point of view, our notbeing able to give up a mislynch makes it all the more critical that we

not

lynch me today.

The fact that you said you'd investigated your former self on "night 0" doesn't help either.

Well, I'm not saying that, that's whay C_O

did

. I guess when opie turned up scum he found me most suspicious and decided to investigate. I disagree with that cop strategy, but that's what he did.

Fair enough, I suppose I haven't explicitly responded to your posts.

If your decision is to remain close minded, I'm not sure what I can say to change that. But you haven't explicitly responded to my cases or my defense, and like I said I can't understand what perspective you might be coming from where doing so would be harmful.

[Guardian]

Patrick, wouldn't a scumbag have as much if not more incentive to defend himself from lynch than a cop? I'm not sure I understand your assumption.

I think a protown powerole would be more willing to post in this situation than a scum. If ChaosOmega is town, I think he'd want to be on record with his suspicions at the very least. I could see scum clamming up if they think that they won't be able to talk their way out of trouble, and that by continuing the act they might just leave links to scumbuddies. A cop would have no such disincentive. I've seen doomed scum stop posting in the past, and I know that in his position, I'd be far more likely to post as town than as scum. I also feel, although it may be somewhat naive, that ChaosOmega as cop would realise that if we mislynch him we'd be in dire straits, and that would motivate him to try harder to defend himself. I say it may be naive, because I'm not sure if he's the kind of player that would feel any sense of duty to the town as an innocent.

I'm not sure if C_O is a "sense of duty" kind of guy. I can see what you mean about scum clamming up and town wanting to leave their suspicions, and your suspicion is not completely unjustified. However, don't scum always have an incentive to defend themselves? There's usually just 3 scum in a mini normal, maybe 2 if there is an SK. Scum have a huge incentive to not just roll over and die.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I can definitely see your perspective, but want to show you that it isn't the only perspective, and in this case isn't the correct one. In theory, C_O should have not lurked day 1 or day 2, made lots of cases, not been replaced, and been an A+ townie. His lackings in that regard are regrettable, but him being lurker-scum isn't the only plausible interpretation of his play here.

[Incognito]

I'll respond to Guardian tomorrow. A bit sleepy right now considering it's midnight.

Incognito: How do you propose that we test out Guardian's claim tomorrow?

Good question. Even if Guardian really is the cop and did investigate someone Night 2 and survived to present his results tomorrow, I guess it would still be a "that person's word against Guardian's" scenario and it would still be hard to accept Guardian's word as the truth. So now that I think about it, it would be very difficult to test his claim.

I guess what's really drawn me away from my Guardian vote now is the fact that Oman jumped on Chaos_Omega's wagon so quickly at the start of Day 2. I know we've reasoned the possibility of CO being an SK but I

really

don't trust Oman, I feel like he's definitely scum, and his jump on that bandwagon really made me reconsider my vote, yet again. And then Adel's mentioning that this could have been the work of a vig also got me thinking especially considering the NK choices. I dunno. I need time to think right now and there's still plenty of day left so I feel like there's no need to rush.

[Incognito]

But then BAH, a tracker, watcher, cop, AND a vig? UGH. This game is confusing the hell out of me. Good night.

[Patrick]

However, don't scum always have an incentive to defend themselves? There's usually just 3 scum in a mini normal, maybe 2 if there is an SK. Scum have a huge incentive to not just roll over and die.

If he's scum, he may have decided that he had no chance of escaping, and could not further help his team by talking. So he shut up. If he's town, that could never be true, he could always help his team more by talking. I'm not saying clamming up would necessarily be the best play for scum, just that it seems more likely to come from scum than town in this situation.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I can definitely see your perspective, but want to show you that it isn't the only perspective, and in this case isn't the correct one. In theory, C_O should have not lurked day 1 or day 2, made lots of cases, not been replaced, and been an A+ townie. His lackings in that regard are regrettable, but him being lurker-scum isn't the only plausible interpretation of his play here.

I agree that it's not the only plausible explanation. It's possible that ChaosOmega has simply played a dreadful game as town, and done alot of scummy looking things, happens to have a claim that doesn't seem to fit into the setup, and simply decided he couldn't be bothered anymore. If that is the case, I'll give him a mouthful postgame, even though I doubt he'll even read it, let alone care. What I'm saying is, I think his actions and claim can be better explained by him being scum. The argument you've made here could be made as an argument against lynching anyone. Unless they're 100% confirmed scum, any lynch candidate could just be a townie who made mistakes and hasn't played in the best possible way.

I guess what's really drawn me away from my Guardian vote now is the fact that Oman jumped on Chaos_Omega's wagon so quickly at the start of Day 2. I know we've reasoned the possibility of CO being an SK but I really don't trust Oman, I feel like he's definitely scum, and his jump on that bandwagon really made me reconsider my vote, yet again.

Are you saying you think this disassociates them in some way? Because if you are, I disagree. I've often seen scum being too eager to vote/hammer their partners, and if ChaosOmega is mafia, I think his buddies probably saw him as a routine bus the minute we saw two dead investigative roles.

I'll respond to Guardian tomorrow. A bit sleepy right now considering it's midnight.

Weak. It's coming up to 5 am here

I agree that we don't need to rush this, and I'll probably have more to say tomorrow after some sleep.

[Erg0]

I'm not sure there's anything I can say to respond when you make it clear that there's nothing I can say.

Well what

could

you say? All you can do is try to interpret CO's actions, which I've already assessed as extremely scummy. I thought this through at the start of the day, and unless you can come up with a line of argument that nobody has considered to this point, I'm not going to be changing my mind. You've got your interpretation of CO's motives, and I've got mine.

Which them are you talking about? Either implies two, I am confused.

I meant Adel and Matt_S - sorry, this got messed up in editing.

Hm. I'm really town, why not give my cases a serious review today, at least, before you lynch me? What can doing so hurt?

It can create confusion and distraction, for one. I've read your cases, but I'm not going to vote for them today, simple as that.

Well, I agree with you, we may not have the luxury of a mislynch -- but that in and of itself is not a reason to lynch me. From my point of view, our notbeing able to give up a mislynch makes it all the more critical that we

not

lynch me today.

The use of the phrase "in and of itself" is completely misplaced. This is hardly the only reason I want to lynch you.

Well, I'm not saying that, that's whay C_O

did

. I guess when opie turned up scum he found me most suspicious and decided to investigate. I disagree with that cop strategy, but that's what he did.

You missed my point - CO would have investigated you night 1, not night 0.

If your decision is to remain close minded, I'm not sure what I can say to change that. But you haven't explicitly responded to my cases or my defense, and like I said I can't understand what perspective you might be coming from where doing so would be harmful.

Frankly, I think it's a waste of my time at this juncture. I don't need to refute your cases on other players in order to vote for you.

[Oman]

Moogle.

[Incognito]

Therefore I'll go back to my original vote.

Vote: Oman

Could you explain in a bit more detail why you're not getting the vibe from Matt_S and are from Oman? I'll definitely go back and re-read your and Patrick's posts; as of now I haven't read them particularly carefully, I've only read Matt_S, Oman, Adel with an extremely peeled back eye.

Before I respond to this, I do have a request for Matt_S.

@Matt_S:

You haven't completed any games here on MS so I really have no way of meta-ing you. Can you link to at least one game from another site possibly where you've been town and one game where you've been scum? Thanks, if you can.