NG 581 - Game Over!

[Incognito]

Mod:

Any word on GarbageMan?

It is convention to lynch on day 1 in this game type here (as in MS).

It's not really convention but more like it's the town's only weapon towards getting rid of scum. Obviously we don't have a vig or some other pro-town killing role so lynching is the only way to solidly gather any information about a person's alignment (by way of the mod during the death scene). Vote analysis is also useful to help determine who could be scum and who could be town after a lynch occurs and a victim's alignment is revealed.

Official Vote Count

Incognito - 1 (koolkevk)
koolkevk - 1 (Patrick)

pinkkitten90 - 2 (babygirl86, Incognito)

Avangor - 1 (JamesThePhox)

Not voting - 4 (Avangor, GarbageMan, pinkkitten90, Xtoxm)

5 to Lynch

[JamesThePhox]

Vote analysis is also useful to help determine who could be scum and who could be town after a lynch occurs and a victim's alignment is revealed.

QFT.

Prod: GarbageMan

The lack of his posts makes me scared. I hope he didn't... DIE!

Realization

: Super Smash Bros Brawl just came out in America. It call makes sense now.

[pinkkitten90]

Lol, it was meant more of a joke towards the general everyone, I just like the sound of it Wink

i took it as a joke

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

GarbageMan has been prodded.

[pinkkitten90]

the towns only reliable defence is lynching, where as mafia have night kills and its only a chance we have cop and/or doctor (the last could become a given if the is no night kill by the mafia) plus the mafia know how each other are and their objective is to stop the other from being lynched and find the doctor and/or cop. no lynching has both advantages and disadvantages depending on the number of mafia vs townies, but so does lynching, this game is based on deduction, manipulation and luck.

[pinkkitten90]

thats my understanding of how this game works ... i think.

[Avangor]

Having thought it over, I think that no lynch is a wise choice because the town has a 4/5(roughly) chance of lynching each other, rather than the scum. However, I'm an inexperienced newbie, so don't listen too closely to me.

[pinkkitten90]

but in doing so one of us gets knocked off by the mafia giving them a greater lead. bringing it down to 4 townies to every mafia. instead of 4.5 to every mafia. and a 3/4 chance of lynching each other next round and a 1/4 of getting a mafia.
but if we acciently lynch either the doctor or the cop if there is one and/or the other we get a greater loss over al as we would have no one to save the night killee (yes, i kno its not a word) or investigate the mafia.
so looking at it either way No lynch does seem a better option.

[pinkkitten90]

[incognito quote]

It's not really convention but more like it's the town's only weapon towards getting rid of scum. Obviously we don't have a vig or some other pro-town killing role so lynching is the only way to solidly gather any information about a person's alignment (by way of the mod during the death scene). Vote analysis is also useful to help determine who could be scum and who could be town after a lynch occurs and a victim's alignment is revealed.
[/quote]
but lynching just to analyse can cause us to lynch a non-plain townie Ie the cop / doctor because we dont kno if either of them are in the game.

[Incognito]

Having thought it over, I think that no lynch is a wise choice because the town has a 4/5(roughly) chance of lynching each other, rather than the scum. However, I'm an inexperienced newbie, so don't listen too closely to me.

Avangor, do you think a Day 1 lynch is mainly random or is it based off of some information that's gathered from the thread?

but lynching just to analyse can cause us to lynch a non-plain townie Ie the cop / doctor because we dont kno if either of them are in the game.

I never said that we should lynch just to analyze. Discussion happens within the thread and through this discussion, we determine who is likely to be scum and who isn't.

Question for you: If a townie is lynched, do you think the wagon was pushed only by other townies or do you think scum may have placed a vote somewhere on the wagon as well?

And with the inverse if scum is lynched, do you think it's safe to assume that the wagon was completely town-driven? Why or why not?

Also to quote people, I'm gonna just quote what my buddy Ripley said in a game I played with him:

1. To start off a post with a quote, Press the "Quote" button that appears at the top right of the post you want to quote. The whole of the post will be put into quote tags for you in your reply post. If you don't want to quote the whole thing, just delete the bits you don't want (but be sure to leave the quote and end quote tags untouched).

2. To turn another piece of text into a quote, select the text with the mouse and then press the quote button (in the top row of the buttons above your message text). Note however this just creates a quote with the title "Quote". To specify who said the quote, you need to edit the quote tag at the beginning and add the name, e.g. change this:

Code: Select all

[quote]

to this

Code: Select all

[quote="Ripley"]

Use the Preview button (next to Submit) before posting to check that everything's formatted the way you want it.

[Incognito]

Example: Xtoxm is obvscum.

Unvote; Vote: Xtoxm

Discuss.

[pinkkitten90]

Question for you: If a townie is lynched, do you think the wagon was pushed only by other townies or do you think scum may have placed a vote somewhere on the wagon as well?

And with the inverse if scum is lynched, do you think it's safe to assume that the wagon was completely town-driven? Why or why not?

Also to quote people, I'm gonna just quote what my buddy Ripley said in a game I played with him:

A1: if a townie is lynch it is highly likly that a mafia manipulated it to occur. so it could be all townie or all mafia because of how the step up was created. there cant be a lynch with out reason on the townies behalf.

A2: if a mafia is lynch i still could be both some times it is safer for mafia to vote mafia to be lynched as to draw the heat from them selves so that the game can go in their favour.

And thanks for the quote tip im hopless at this stuff.

[pinkkitten90]

I never said that we should lynch just to analyze. Discussion happens within the thread and through this discussion, we determine who is likely to be scum and who isn't.

i know but the way you said it made it seem that you just vote to Analyse,

[JamesThePhox]

but lynching just to analyse can cause us to lynch a non-plain townie Ie the cop / doctor because we dont kno if either of them are in the game.

I understand the concern for a mis-lynch of a power role (if they exist in this setup), but here's my reasoning (reiterated from a previous post and from Patrick's post):

Assuming that we lynch someone completely by chance, it would require 5 people to "accidentally" type Vote: (Unfortunate Person), which is highly unlikely. Especially since 3 of players in this game are IC's and we have 1 person who has yet to post.

I never said that we should lynch just to analyze. Discussion happens within the thread and through this discussion, we determine who is likely to be scum and who isn't.

i know but the way you said it made it seem that you just vote to Analyse,

Incognito is not voting to lynch, rather he's (I presume) voting to get discussion, to get people talking. Going with the idea that

"short days hurt the Town"

, more people talking leads to mafia talking, which gives town a better chance of figuring out who mafia is. If people don't start the random voting, everyone will have nothing to say, allowing the scum to stay quiet and hidden. Also the random voting phase will lead to actual voting phase and the Town can start analyzing the votes, getting a better idea of who scum is.

Having thought it over, I think that no lynch is a wise choice because the town has a 4/5(roughly) chance of lynching each other, rather than the scum.

That's true, but here's another way to look at it:

- The chances, in every setup, is 2/9 that, in a completely

random

lynch, town lynches the mafia.
- The chances, when taking all setups to account, average to 1/9 that a power pro-town will be the victim of a

random

lynch.
- As long as the Townies believe that they win if all the Mafia are lynched, even if some of them are sacrificed in miss lynches, then a miss lynch of a regular townie is not terrible. We have 9 people, 2 scum and 7 innocents. The town is allowed to miss lynch twice (assuming scum gets two successful Night Kills) before it becomes LyLo, and by that time, either the cop (if s/he exists in this setup) or the Town will discover at least one Scum, usually. Plain Townies can be sacrificed, whereas Mafia can't afford to sacrifice their own, usually.

Now, take into account that through discussion and analysis, the chances of finding mafia increase over time and posts, then lynching on the first day seems like a very good move for the Town.

Also the chance for doctor and cop to be successful are slim, anyways, and with a potential Mafia Roleblocker in the game, it makes claiming very dangerous.

Question: Is it usually a good idea in MS games to target the lurkers? Because in the games I play in RL, we've discovered that regardless whether a quiet person is a Townie or Mafia, it's always good to target them first, mainly to get them talking, and secondly because a quiet Townie is easy to get rid of, since they don't really help Town find Mafia (AKA more useful dead than alive) and they also might be a Mafia trying to stay hidden.
Even if a person is a doctor trying to stay hidden, s/he would still want to talk and place some votes around to get a good idea of who is innocent, so s/he doesn't protect a Mafia during the night.

[pinkkitten90]

jamesthephox i never said he was voting like that it just seemed to me from what he said that he was of opinion too. and i didnt mean voting by chance i ment people turning around and voting for one person cos its convenient or something.

also the last part you wrote gave me a headache. lol

[babygirl86]

In the other games I have played in I've found that just because a person is lurking doesn't mean they are necessarily mafia. I've had a bad habit of doing that in the past myself- sometimes I either just get bored or I simply don't really have an opinion on what's been happening. Also, at times(this is currently the case with me as a warning)people have either school, a job, or both and are sometimes unable to post. If I don't post for a day or so that will more than likely be the reason.

Secondly, although no one is giving off an extremely scummy vibe right now, I still believe the no lynch idea is a bad idea. Why risk going straight into night and losing a townie when we could spend a little extra time discussing and gather more information about who we think the scum are? Part of me wants to believe that at least one of the people pushing for the no lynch are scum, but I do realize that this IS a newbie game and most of us are beginners and may not realize what the consequenses of a no lynch may be in the end of the game. But since I've realized that my vote is still a random vote, I am going to

unvote

until scummy behavior becomes more clear to me.

lastly,

Example: Xtoxm is obvscum.

Unvote; Vote: Xtoxm

Discuss.

why do you think he is obviously scum?

[Patrick]

Interesting. I'll have more to add in a few hours after my lectures, but I just want to ask pinkkitten and JamesThePhox at this point, why did you ignore Incognito's vote on Xtoxm and accusation that he's "obvscum"? That seemed like the most important part to comment on, and both of you just ignored it and kept discussing theory.

[Patrick]

Actually, JamesThePhox touched on Incognito's vote in his last post, but I'm still not entirely sure what he thinks of it. Alot of the discussion so far has been theoretical, which is fair enough since this is a newbie game, but doesn't help us determine who's scum because no real accusations are being thrown around.

I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Xtoxm

because he's an IC but hasn't really done anything so far other than post theoretical stuff. My other fellow IC gives me better vibes.

JamesThePhox is the only other player that has really pinged the scumdar at all, probably because he's been very heavy on theory and the only thing he posted resembling an accusation couldn't have led to anything good. When I looked at other players though, there are some who haven't posted anything outside of theory stuff either, but these two are the ones that stuck out to me the most *shrug*.

As a general note to everyone, don't hold back on posting suspicions, even if they're minor. Particularly at the start of a game, we've got nothing else to go on, so even a small suspicion or feeling is better than nothing. Small things lead to more interactions between players, and usually give us the basis for better suspicions, which leads to us lynching scum for worldwide peace.

Question: Is it usually a good idea in MS games to target the lurkers? Because in the games I play in RL, we've discovered that regardless whether a quiet person is a Townie or Mafia, it's always good to target them first, mainly to get them talking, and secondly because a quiet Townie is easy to get rid of, since they don't really help Town find Mafia (AKA more useful dead than alive) and they also might be a Mafia trying to stay hidden.
Even if a person is a doctor trying to stay hidden, s/he would still want to talk and place some votes around to get a good idea of who is innocent, so s/he doesn't protect a Mafia during the night.

Lurking may or may not be scummy, depending on several things. One of them is playstyle: some players are just more active than others. Some players lurk as scum more than as town, so if you know that about someone and they're lurking, it's worthy of suspicion. If someone is lurking it can be worth checking the other games they're playing in at the time; if they consistently seem more active in their other games but avoid this one, something may be up. Alternatively, they might just be inactive site wide for whatever reason. It's usually worth calling out lurkers to try and get them more involved, since if they're protown their insight would be helpful, and if they're scum they can't be allowed to just coast by. Since we have 9 players here we have a bit more leeway than in previous 7 player newbie games, but nevertheless we should try and form at least some impression of everybody on day 1.

[Incognito]

Actually, JamesThePhox touched on Incognito's vote in his last post, but I'm still not entirely sure what he thinks of it.

When did JamesThePhox touch on my vote? It seems like the both of them (pinkkitten and JamesThePhox) completely overlooked my vote on Xtoxm, which is interesting.

lastly,

Example: Xtoxm is obvscum.

Unvote; Vote: Xtoxm

Discuss.

why do you think he is obviously scum?

You don't see it? Look harder at what's happened so far in the thread, look at his posts in isolation, and you'll be so compelled to vote for him too!

Maybe you'll even explain it to all of us.

[Xtoxm]

Oh, yeh...Xtoxm is obv scum. I would vote him...But i'd better not...

[Patrick]

When did JamesThePhox touch on my vote? It seems like the both of them (pinkkitten and JamesThePhox) completely overlooked my vote on Xtoxm, which is interesting.

This is what I thought at first too, but when I read again it seems he touched on it here:

Incognito is not voting to lynch, rather he's (I presume) voting to get discussion, to get people talking.

I think it's not far away from ignoring it though.

Oh, yeh...Xtoxm is obv scum. I would vote him...But i'd better not...

Is that all you have to say?

[babygirl86]

I went back over the thread and I still don't see anything that screams scum from xtoxm. The fact that all you can say about your opinion is 'look back over the posts- how can you not see it' makes me think that maybe you're trying to form a bandwagon on him, which is a scummy move in any game. Although I find it funny that Xtoxm did not have a stronger response to his votes, I will simply throw a

FOS: xTOXM

and

vote: incognito

[pinkkitten90]

with jamesthephox saying he was obviously scum he also put the word Example: before it. this confused me when he voted but i was more waiting to see what xtoxm had to say first about it, voting for someone and questioning them is something i see as being between the two first, it becomes more susspicious if the other does not defend them self. so i would rather let it lie until they do.

plus patrick is right Xtomx is that all you have to say. plus it seem wrong you said that.

[Xtoxm]

Why i've been made an IC I don't know.

[pinkkitten90]

what is an IC?