Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[BTD6_maker]

here is my case on BTD6 maaker. he seems a lot more scummy then NSG!

Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?

So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim. And I've given you ample opportunity to do so. Just to be clear, I'm not asking so you can convince

me

, I know what my alignment is! But if you actually well and truly believe that I'm doing vague and mysterious scummy things then your reaction should include things like:

1. Voting me
2. Asking others to vote me; pushing a wagon
3. Pressuring me into answering questions
4. Examining my iso and voting history in detail
5. Putting forth a case

My issue is that you've done none of these things. Instead what you've done is:

1. Throw shade at my slot
2. Complain about my behavior
3. Refuse to explain basically anything

I came in with a pretty strong scumread on your slot, so when you presented the opportunity to engage I took it and you've failed spectacularly. Nothing you've done in reaction to me has been townie. Instead you've tried to take advantage of my nonstandard behavior by throwing shade to erode the townpoints my predecessor gained without actually committing to it with a vote or writing down a stance I could debunk. Doing that would pin you down into a 1-on-1 that you're not sure you want because you don't know how good a player I am or how good my reads happen to be.

@Micc:

Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?

The thread is in danger of collapsing under the weight of the irony of this post alone. This is from a guy whose own "push" on BTD comprised a single naked vote.

I am reading what Chip Butty has to say about Papa Zito.

I can certainly see the hypocrisy of Papa Zito here, naked voting me and then making this case against you. However, what I am wondering is this: do you think that this hypocrisy in itself is scummy?

I am thinking that if Papa Zito really were scum, they would be aware that they are naked voting me to wagon me. Bearing this in mind, they may think that they themselves will be noticed if they try to dismiss your case as merely casting shade and complaining.

Now, if they were Town, it may be that they are blind to their own hypocrisy. This is psychological projection (essentially, "pot calling the kettle black") and is a common phenomenon. Of course, this means that they are bad Town, but in this case they are still Town.

This is why I would regard that Papa Zito post as being very bad, but slightly Townish rather than scummy. Of course, you didn't explicitly call it scummy but you seemed to imply it, hence why I am asking you.

You have said more about Papa Zito, which I will likely analyse in the morning.

defending Chip in this post. it looks like he was trying to take the pressure of Chip. moving it to Papa Zito.

I was defending Chip for a simple reason - I thought they were Town. I know now that I was mistaken, but you cannot say that Townies should never be mistaken. If you want to suggest that this post makes me more likely to be scum, then get the statistics. How many times was it that someone who defended scum turned out to also be scum? It's probably close to random.

I meant hedging in the sense that every read youve given has had the word "weak" attached to it.

How can you be avoiding confbias regarding reads you don't even have yet. Like as far as I can tell you havent read a single post made my northsidegal or Chip bitty or Sobeov/Zito slot. Can you say something about your read on them so far.

Every read I have given has the word "weak" attached to it because that accurately describes the strength of my read. The alternative would be to lie about the strength of my read. Do you think it is pro-Town to lie about the strength of your read?

I cannot be avoiding confbias regarding reads I don't even have yet. That would not make sense. However, I can certainly try to avoid confbias regarding the reads I do have.

You made a fair point about not reading Northsidegal, Chip Butty, or Sobolev/Zito. It is true that I haven't analysed any posts by them. That is what I will be doing.

he fails to read Chip. common scum move to not read their scum buddy. just in case they are lynched. if they scum read them, they will be called out for not voting them. If they town read them, they risk being called out for town reading a scum!

At that point I didn't because I was focusing on reading other people first. When I got to Chip, I Townread them. Also, you are suggesting that anyone who is wrong even once (by Townreading a scum) should be seen as scummy. That may be true, but in that case the people scumreading them are mistaken, at least in the absence of solid evidence.

I hope that this does not become like Open 642. That was far too inactive and apathetic. It was great for me, because I was scum and the apathy led to two No Lynches, but of course I hope this game doesn't turn out like that.

Let's start with these:

Have you read the game?
Who do you want lynched today?

I have skimmed the game.

I cannot say I want any one person lynched at the moment. My reads are still very weak and flexible. I will be able to give a better answer later today, perhaps. I do have a very weak scumread on the CheekyTeeky slot, but that slot is being replaced and I will have to read the replacement.

I don't understand how these quotes line up. In one you say you don't want a state of apathy, in the next you say you've only skimmed the game and you ask, for the second time (not quoted part) if anyone has something for you to look at. To me this is asking for direction, when town don't want a state of apathy, they are proactive. You can't fear apathy and yet skim read the game asking for direction, that is very contridictory in intent. The only way I can see this lining up is if you're scum concerned about looking like you care about the game state and not wanting to give away too much with stronger reads or pushes, but looking for someone else's opinions to ride on to divert any blame from yourself.

I don't see any contradiction. Asking for direction was an attempt to avoid apathy, not cause it. When Town don't want a state of apathy, asking for direction can help to avoid that. It is not "very contradictory in intent".

Again, this post looks like another contradiction hunt. This would make your point look like it exposes scum when actually it does not do anything like that. Your "contradiction" is not a contradiction at all.

I have already explained why contradiction hunting benefits scum. If you were Town, you would be more likely to notice (after I have said it) that contradictions are not scum-indicative.

This is a weak-moderate scum read. It's the best vote for now.

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

at this point. NSG had made a case on cheekyteeky. HE votes her on a (moderate scum read)

And your point is?

VC 1.6

The flight is departing.

Leading Wagon:
BTD6_maker (3) - Hopkirk, Micc, Papa Zito
northsidegal (2) - UC Voyager, CheekyTeeky

Micc (1) - Cabd
CheekyTeeky (1) - northsidegal


Not Voting: BTD6_maker, Chip Butty

With 9 alive it will require 5 votes to achieve a lynch.

Day 1 will end in (expired on 2017-10-29 19:07:10)

Mod notes:
CheekyTeeky has reclaimed their slot.
UC Voyager replaces TheThawClown! Welcome, UCV.

right here. both chip and BTD6 are not voting. as if neither of them had found a good miss lynch!

note

after Chip makes a case on papa zito, he says he will look into the Papa Zito case! following his scum buddy!

I looked into the Chip/Papa Zito interactions because that was relevant at the time.

At this point, you are contorting everything I say and do to fit a narrative where I am scum with Chip. This is the height of confbias.

VOTE: BTD6_maker

Still upset at my lolhammer?

Yep. Zitos case made no sense. I'm glad we got scum but it should have been because of something that made sense. I respect Zitos gut reads now, I'll just ignore his logic lol. Also mad that you did nothing to discuss anyone D1 Cabd; and that you hammered without discussion.

What are the chances of scum bussing D1? I'm feeling like that's pretty low but it would explain why Papas case made no sense.

I mostly agree with this. I have already explained why I disagree with Zito's case. However, assume Zito is scum. Zito of course would know that they are bussing, but so would Chip. If

Zito made a very weak case

and Chip knows that they want a bus on themselves, they would likely not rebut Zito's case in a way that exposes it completely. So why did they do it? Of course, it could simply be what they think they would do if Town, which is simply defend. Another possibility is that Chip rebutting all of Zito's points is a signal to stop bussing, or perhaps a signal that they should start cross-bussing. Overall, though, I think a bus is pretty unlikely here, so I think Zito is likely Town. They are a moderate Townread of mine now. That said, I still think they are bad Town.

Similarly, Cabd is confirmed Town but I think they made the wrong decision to hammer, even though Chip flipped scum. It seems like Cabd took a gamble and happened to get lucky. I would say that Cabd is also bad Town.

I seem to be calling a lot of people bad Town. This is probably true. People generally have a range of cognitive biases (unless they actively try to oppose them, but there are generally still biases even then) so I can see elements of bad Town in many people. In the past, I certainly was bad Town quite a lot. Even now I probably still have many undetected biases. The main reason why I noticed that there are a lot of bad Town is that I seemed to find that the probability that an average Townie's scumread is correct is significantly less than the probability the Townie gives to their read.

if i read this correctly, this says that Papa Zito made a weak case on Chip. i disagree. Papa Zito made a lot of good points. I think he had a solid case.

It's clear we disagree on the merits of Papa Zito's case. I think that Papa Zito made a very weak case and happened to get lucky.

If you think that Papa Zito made a lot of good points, you should be able to list which of his points you think are solid and why the rebuttals to those points are not.

Townies disagree. What's your case on me in this post?

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

rofl I don't owe that guy anything and I sure as hell don't need to "town it up a bit"

Which hey look you've once again made a super vague statement. So here I am asking why you're tossing shade instead of either determining alignment or pushing a wagon. Can you plz solve this mysterious mystery.

My dude.

Once again you've dodged the question while throwing shade. I'll ask the question again: Why would scum Zito be more likely to act this way than town Zito.

Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?

So here's your problem my friend. You've casually insinuated a few times now that my actions are "scummy" without actually giving any backing to the claim. And I've given you ample opportunity to do so. Just to be clear, I'm not asking so you can convince

me

, I know what my alignment is! But if you actually well and truly believe that I'm doing vague and mysterious scummy things then your reaction should include things like:

1. Voting me
2. Asking others to vote me; pushing a wagon
3. Pressuring me into answering questions
4. Examining my iso and voting history in detail
5. Putting forth a case

My issue is that you've done none of these things. Instead what you've done is:

1. Throw shade at my slot
2. Complain about my behavior
3. Refuse to explain basically anything

I came in with a pretty strong scumread on your slot, so when you presented the opportunity to engage I took it and you've failed spectacularly. Nothing you've done in reaction to me has been townie. Instead you've tried to take advantage of my nonstandard behavior by throwing shade to erode the townpoints my predecessor gained without actually committing to it with a vote or writing down a stance I could debunk. Doing that would pin you down into a 1-on-1 that you're not sure you want because you don't know how good a player I am or how good my reads happen to be.

@Micc:

Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?

Rockin.

VOTE: Chip

not really agreeing here. chip actually

has

done some of the things you're describing! as for pressuring you to answer questions, what do you call 523 and 525? you say that he's not examining your iso in detail, but that's pretty much what he does in 521. you could make the argument that he didn't analyze it in detail, but i would say that there wasn't really a whole lot to analyze. it doesn't make a lot of sense for chip to just suddenly start voting you and pushing your wagon just because he believes you've been scummier than ss was - the townread on ss still exists.

I feel absolutely no pressure from Chip whatsoever. Complaining that he doesn't like what I'm doing (523/525)/ taking his ball and going home (526) forces nothing from me at all. You argued your own point on 521, well done.

The SS hedge is fun but either I'm scummy to him or I'm not. He's thrown enough shade to make it clear he thinks the latter so I think I'm perfectly justified asking why his actions aren't aligning with his words.

Here......this isn't a vague case...a little repetitive....but he has a solid case.

Be more specific. What in the cases is solid? Why do the rebuttals fail? Papa Zito has himself done what he is attacking. Does that make him scummy?
If not, why does it make Chip scummy?

BTD has been avoiding making strong reads, yes, but he is very conscious of that and keeps drawing attention to it, so he definitely not hoping it will go unnoticed. And he is actually right, there hasn't been anything to form a strong read on yet, so i am sympatico. His approach contrasts with the Micc/CT overstate-and-bluff approach to scumhunting, which also has its merits when used correctly. I'm not feeling BTD's CT vote though. I think he probably just a thoughtful, cautious player who will hopefully get stronger reads as the game progresses. If not then can lynch, but i won't be lynching him today.

I think I'll wait for substantial posts from UCV before actually voting. I'm inclined to look at BTD's wagon next. I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot. Time to revisit Hopkirk, methinks, esp since i still hold the view that he and Micc are unlikely both to be scum.

Hello friends I will commence with the reading.

onice

Aight I read the things. This game is surprisingly dense.

Cabd is a big fat liar and I wanna see my file. Where do I send my FOIA request.

VOTE: BTD6

Don't know what to make of this just yet. Need more from Papa.

More what.

Like you read things but what do you think about it all? Did you get any reads? Why are you voting BTD6_MAKER? What made him scummy to you?

yeah see this is a much better post than complaining

I do have reads yes and unlike Friend BTD6 I had no trouble getting strong reads.

I'm voting him for reasons I don't want to get into at this time.

Complaining? I said I need more...like more information to make a conclusion. I didn't say omg why is Zito not posting more game content. That's a pretty strong reaction to a pretty neutral statement. Prefacing your post like that makes withholding your read seem more scummy than I'd otherwise find it.

That's a strong reaction? ok

Good thing I'm not too terribly worried about what your read on me is I guess.

Shoulda kept reading.

so what are those strong reads zito? any townreads? who do you think is scummy? your predecessor (you replaced kawso, right?) thought i was scum, do you agree?

I do have townreads yes.

This is the total PZ output before i poked him. Vote on BTD with no stated reason, and repeated assurances thatvyes he has strong townreads and evidence for them, but nothing forthcoming. And he just blows off anyone who expresses suspicion of him, rather than actually engaging them. That's why i said he is scumming up the slot.

Oh, and I'd REALLY be interested in hearing why Micc is willing to sheep onto such a weak-ass vote on BTD.

Okay, I think we're rolling now, at long last.

Well, can you at least say why you don't want to give your reasons for your BTD vote?

I'm willing to hear you out but you're coming across to me as unnecessarily secretive and evasive. Unnecessarily if you're town, that is...

Nopes again. You don't get to ask questions while blowing off questions from others. You haven't contributed anything except that naked vote on BTD. How am i supposed to townread you based on that?

Lots of interesting stuff I found from Chip about BTD6. He defended BTD6 when there was a wagon on him. You would think that the scum would try to support a wagon...unless the wagon was their scum buddy.

I Townread Chip at that point. There is an obvious scum motivation for their defence of me. They want to buddy me and keep on misleading me. To Chip, I was a useful pawn.

Saying words and criticising is not equal to a case. If you had actually paid attention to the interaction you'd know that all of zito's points weren't true. Chip was actually doing the things Zito said he should be doing as town.

You not seeing the hypocrisy makes me feel like you're not reading the game properly because you know people's alignments. Also you attacking BTD feels like a cheap push. Your hesitation to vote NSG makes me believe she could be town. One of you two are scum and it could very well be you.

VOTE: UCV

My cheap push? Did you read what I said. Did you even look at the chip defending BTD6, BTD6 defending chip? They seemed to support each other a lot. Didn't ever question each Other.
If I were scum, my best move would to support the NSG case. It is a way easier wagon than BTD6!

I have already refuted this point.

Of course, having such a bad case doesn't make you automatically scum. In my opinion, it's consistent with you being very confbiased Town. But someone is scum and you are a possibility, and I need to decide who is most likely. If you are scum, it is possible that together with Chip you planned to set up interactions that the other scum can then use as a case.

I'm pretty confidante in my BTD6 case.

i find it scummy that btd6 seemed to be on the same page with Chip 24/7? how Chip defended him and not tried to join his wagon? i mean.....they look like they are working in a group!

[/spoiler]

lets add more.

BTD6 hasn't even acknowledged my case. He still doesn't seem to be doing much scum hunting, and isn't showing any signs of town

Well, now I have. I have been scumhunting throughout. I think that your "signs of town" do not work statistically. Is Town really more likely than random to show "signs of town"? Be specific about particular signs, then we can use statistics.

[Papa Zito]

jfc no please don't get them started on statistics

Wait. You don't want us to scum hunt until there is a replacment. If I wasn't so confidant in BTD6, I would say NSG was scummy...

UC I'll make you a deal. You give me NSG today, I'll give you BTD6 tomorrow.

[UC Voyager]

jfc no please don't get them started on statistics

Wait. You don't want us to scum hunt until there is a replacment. If I wasn't so confidant in BTD6, I would say NSG was scummy...

UC I'll make you a deal. You give me NSG today, I'll give you BTD6 tomorrow.

Why would I vote someone i don't think is scum...

[Papa Zito]

Few reasons.

1. We're ahead of the pitch count and can afford some mislynches
2. Do you really want BSG alive at lylo given her play this game
3. Micc's points are all completely valid
4. If you really value her input: due to the setup, she'll still get to talk to us tomorrow

Point 3 is what I was driving at with my questions to her earlier. If I were in her shoes I'd be 100% offense 0% defense since even if I was mislynched I could still help tomorrow. Only person in this game who should be super concerned about getting lynched is our last scumbud.

[Papa Zito]

Cabd I need you to start speaking up bud, the game is stagnating.

[UC Voyager]

It saddly has. I have considered the NSG case, but im more in favor of a BTD6 lynch. right now we have a head start, but that can go away fast.

[Micc]

Having northsidegal flipped is also way more advantageous than flipped BTD in the event of a mislynch.

[Cabd]

Cabd I need you to start speaking up bud, the game is stagnating.

Yeah.


I don't see many scenarios in which NSG is alive in LYLO and I'm fine flipping her over to be a confirmed town voice if not GG.

[Hopkirk]

You argued hard against his wagon. End of.

Q: Should we, under no circumstances, lynch you today (y/n)?

oh,

was

defending. yeah, i misread him. are you really going to lynch me because i read someone as town and then tried to stop my townread from getting lynched on a case i thought was weak? just because i made a mistake? i think you should give me a little bit more credit that if i were scum i could do something a bit more subtle or with a bit more nuance than hard defending my partner, yeah?

as for the question, it depends on what exactly you're asking. i know that i'm town so i know for a fact that a lynch on me would be a mislynch, but if i did something ridiculous like counterclaim cabd or scumclaim or something then i could see how it would be reasonable for people to want to lynch me. i don't plan on doing anything like that, so yeah, a lynch on me is a bad idea.

The tone in the second paragraph seems odd. You don't want to get lynched sure, but it sounds like (arguably you say explicitly) you don't understand why people want to lynch you, when there's some pretty obvious reasons.

Alright, I'm back on the train. I read back and still think northsidegal's interactions with Chip look like they are partners. Her lack of comment or interest on UC voyager's case against BTD is evidence that she's not trying to sort UC despite him being present and in her lynch pool. Waiting for replacements to begin scumhunting is also the tell I've had the most success with across multiple games, so that's another thing against her.

VOTE: northsidegal

First bit I haven't analysed much yet.
Second bit I think makes North more town. Scum North would have to have a lot of mislynched happen to get to lylo, so his focus on one lynch doesn't help him in the long term.
Third bit I can't argue with, so I'll take as scumpoints.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: northsidegal, l-1
it's not playing against wincon, it's me taking my mod-confirm on my innocent child. maybe afterwards we can do something useful.

[UC Voyager]

Intent to hammer

Later
Im hoping your scum because trying to self-vote is terrible....

[northsidegal]

normally i'd agree, but the mechanics of this game make it so that it's not as much of an issue. like i said, taking my mod-confirm innocent.

why would self-voting be better as scum?

[UC Voyager]

chanics of this game make it so that it's not as much of an issue. like i said, taking my mod-confirm i

true. a lot of scum do this when they get mad and just want the game to end....If you want, i will hammer you, but i would prefer to progress my BTD6 case

[northsidegal]

just go ahead with the case, don't let me stop you. there's no pressing need to hammer.

[Cabd]

This game suffers from really long night phases. Wish it was night-less or 24-hour nights.

[northsidegal]

perhaps ask lycan if we could do the thing where we all pm to approve of ending the night phase?

[UC Voyager]

yea

[Hopkirk]

54- Calls Micc town despite/because of his Chip vote.
106- Micc null/slight town.
162- Opposes North wagon.
242- Micc town again.
249- Claims to be very focused on responding to Micc.
256- Likes North.
292/4- Cheeky and Sobolov townreads without any interactions. Sobolov/Zito doesn’t have any reasons in the next post. Micc back to neutral. Me as scum lean. North read seems odd given Chip townreads Cheeky for points on North.
308- Opposed to Kawso/UV lynch.
315- Seems annoyed with Micc.
341- Planning to lower activity until Kawso/BTD start posting despite having no interacts with several people, notably Cheeky.
357- Refuses to do the ISO of me he said he’d do.
368- Part of his scumread on me is from me scumreading North.
481- Micc read might have changed again. It’s unclear.
510- ‘Won’t be lynching BTD today’ after BTD has made a couple of posts.
514- Scum/town read on Zito at the same time. No further interactions.
515- Explicitly brings up his lack of voting anyone.
521- Attack on PZ.
535- Says he’ll vote when UC ways in. Could be waiting to see what position UC takes- potentially explains Chip’s lack of voting/solid stances.
550- Still seems to have PZ as scum. Seems oddly reluctant to pressure him though.
565/7- more against PZ.
579- Null on North after North defends him seems odd if they’re partners.
592- Not commenting on UC despite being really interested in getting UC to post.

Micc/Chip look bad, so one of them would have dropped it a lot sooner unless they were intending a hard bus. That is very unlikely since Chip’s read on Micc fluctuates far too much for things to be planned, and it doesn’t look like something that would naturally occur.
Given his major focus with me, Micc, and Papa Zito (and arguably Cabd before the claim), I’m inclined to think he’d be ignoring his partner. By that metric, Cheeky would be the most likely partner as despite saying he wants to interact with her more, he never actually pushes to try. UC would be second. Then there’s a wide gap for BTP/North.
North townreads Chip, but Chip doesn’t really ever defend North outside of attacking me based on my North read, and he’s got him as null later on.
From Chip’s posts, Micc/PZ look even better, Cheeky/UC look worst.

[Hopkirk]

I was planning to do a read through of North to look at interactions on his side next, but there's no point doing that if he's voting himself.

UC, can you respond to the points I raised on you?

[northsidegal]

please don't let me stop you from doing something productive.

[Micc]

im gunna take the self vote as a concession. You can all do your things and hammer when ready but don't wait for me.

[northsidegal]

im gunna take the self vote as a concession. You can all do your things and hammer when ready but don't wait for me.

will you lynch yourself tomorrow for being wrong, just like me?

[UC Voyager]

VOTE: NSG
okay.....lets see how this flips

@mod can we vote to end night early?

[UC Voyager]

IF you are town, you will be like an IC, so you will be able to give imput

[northsidegal]

-still town-