Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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Haha, sorry about that.
Yeah, the two big qualms I have with Hopkirk currently is a) His BTD vote placement rather than Chip as it makes plenty of sense and fits a pattern of him distancing with Chip but not wanting to buss and I just find it very hard to see that being a vote someone makes with his reads as what they are at the time and b) Him jumping to the "Would shoot PZ N1 and not UC" as I find the former statement very hard to believe being something he'd think he'd do N1 here and the latter prime/kill/his statements after actually make a lot of sense if he's mafia here.
I'll spoil my aha moment type thing but it's effectively this;
He stated that he'd select PZ N1 if he's scum here, I explained how mafia N1 would be aiming for targets that are unlikely to be protected or unlikely to be mslynched and how I didn't think PZ fit that, he turned it around with a Cop/Doc type hypothetical which really didn't fit the scenario we were taking about.
Want to take a guess what it does fit though? Yeah, you got it, what scum would have had to have thought last night when submitting their action, if mafia are making their action last night on the assumption that PZ isn't getting mslynched today the have to submit on one of PZ/Cabd to have a kill to win.
Anyway there's my stuff dumped down, wouldn't mind a few people chiming in.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades
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I forgot PZ subbed in and I can consider SS too. Should be able to do either that or Micc later this evening.
@Micc/1010: Theory debate about the setup is pretty important given your reads are based on theory of how people would play in this setup… Why isn’t this important.
Second part I will be looking out for.
@Regfan/1025:
a.) Why are you ignoring that I scumread North more than Chip? I don’t see why you’d expect me to vote for Chip over North here if I’d chosen not to vote BTD.
b.) Here’s the thing, you can’t say ‘Hopkirk would only think about this if he was mafia’ when you directly asked me to think about it today, and I spent 15+ minutes thinking about it.
Also if you don’t think the cop doctor think fit then you clearly don’t understand what I was saying there. After thinking about it (when you asked me to think about it remember), I recognised it was similar to the meta that 70% of my games have been played under, so I’d have likely followed that meta as scum (unless I recognised it was meta then I guess and tried to avoid it).
I also maintain that if I was scum, PZ would have been the best pick n1 for me. You’re claiming it isn’t, and handwaving my thoughts on why it would be.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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Micc He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Micc He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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I think this is a stretch.In post 1026, Regfan wrote:I probably haven't explained that well but I think if Hopkirk is mafia the decision (his night action) from last night seeped into the discussion I had with him big time.
Then start talking about how all this affects your read on me. I'm not interested in debating whether my theory opinion is correct or not and you're post 1001 felt like that's what you were going for.In post 1027, Hopkirk wrote:@Micc/1010: Theory debate about the setup is pretty important given your reads are based on theory of how people would play in this setup… Why isn’t this important.
Second part I will be looking out for."To hide a tree, use a forest" -Ninja Boy Hideo-
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Papa Zito Jack of All Trades
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aight prepare to be quotewalled you asked for itIn post 997, Regfan wrote:I wouldn't mind you running through why you thought Cheeky was a likely candidate for scum with Chip since you mentioned it in Post 636 and again in Post 717 and Post 826 but never really explained it at all so while we now know it's not the case I'd still like to hear what made you believe this.
Here Cheeky pre-offers an excuse during Micc's initial Chip foray. (Chip uses it in post 18)In post 16, CheekyTeeky wrote:
I wondered if he missed that rc is replacing out. We should see how long he sits on it for lol.In post 15, Micc wrote:Why aren't yall helping to wagon the guy who planted his RVS vote on a player who is replacing out and then disappeared from the thread?
Again, during Micc's initial Chip push.In post 26, CheekyTeeky wrote:Wow micc are you always so LAMIST?
Part of what made them mixed is they did have some minor back-and-forths midday. 253-255, 317-321, 371-379. Nothing major (no votes, no push) but it did seem like Cheeky was casting about a bit.
This was her reaction to another Micc vs Chip scuffle.In post 334, CheekyTeeky wrote:This feels like TvT...just saying.
530ish is where the flashwagon to Chip happens that leads to his lynch. Cheeky disappears for quite some time until:
Yet again, defending the Chip slot. It's a hell of a reaction, especially after her last encounter with Chip wasIn post 597, CheekyTeeky wrote:Lol just joking. Seriously wtf people get off Chip. The whole case is bad and I know Cabd better be reaction testing when he helped build the wagon or else he doesn't actually read the thread and needs to be ignored. NSG spotted the gaping logical flaws in Papa's case and she fell into the background. This is the strongest proof to me so far that she's either town or scum distancing, but we won't know until Papa flips. For now I'm going to say she's town.
Please can we have some more unvotes. Chip you neglected my slot in your updated reads.
UNVOTE:
There is scum on this wagon, I can smell it.
That progression didn't grok at all.In post 371, CheekyTeeky wrote:Oh no are you scum chip?
So my feeling from her was she was perfectly willing to sling a little mud at him but nothing serious, while simultaneously defending him from attacks.
I'll get to your 910 thing in a bit.KappaJust MonikaAge is a very high price to pay for maturity.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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a) Think I'd have been completely more comfortable with you voting North than BTD since it'd not be as weird a progression as what was shown in the thread, that said I think it's questionable that you scum read North more than Chip at that period of time, we're talking about the vote change being directly after you'd spoke about your Chip read a bit. We're unlikely to get anywhere with this so others weighing in would be nice though.In post 1027, Hopkirk wrote:@Regfan/1025:
a.) Why are you ignoring that I scumread North more than Chip? I don’t see why you’d expect me to vote for Chip over North here if I’d chosen not to vote BTD.
b.) Here’s the thing, you can’t say ‘Hopkirk would only think about this if he was mafia’ when you directly asked me to think about it today, and I spent 15+ minutes thinking about it.
Also if you don’t think the cop doctor think fit then you clearly don’t understand what I was saying there. After thinking about it (when you asked me to think about it remember), I recognised it was similar to the meta that 70% of my games have been played under, so I’d have likely followed that meta as scum (unless I recognised it was meta then I guess and tried to avoid it).
I also maintain that if I was scum, PZ would have been the best pick n1 for me. You’re claiming it isn’t, and handwaving my thoughts on why it would be.
b) Uh, I didn't ask you anything about the night kills? I asked why you're town here, you using that as more an argument instead of other things is what's problematic specifically when what you brought up I think explains why mafia did what they may have done N2. I was expecting a lot more "I'm outside my scum range as I don't do ___ play as mafia or go into reads like __ as mafia" type things but it felt like you were struggling with that.
I still continue not to understand your comparison to Cop/Doc N1 even if that's a setup you're primarily played, in Cop/Doc you have to address them as early as possible as leaving them alive well is not really an option. Here there's no cop, it's not just 2 people you're deciding inside of, it's 7 people.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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@NSG - Think Cabd has had to bail on it, still very interested in hearing your thoughts/reads right now.
@Zito - You call that a quote wall? MoI and RC would be very disappointed right now.
The early semi-defenses of Cheeky feel like a really really flimsy reason to think they're linked there. The "This feels like TvT" and "Oh no are you scum" are probably the few posts you've quoted there that I think looks bad upon his flip. Did you take a look at her thinking that Cabd had scum slipped and the way she went into explaining that when you'd scum read her or at any point? Would like to hear how you thought that came from scum.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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I'll be in and out for the next few hours, just post when you're cool to do it and I'll try and be here. Would actually like making some headway on solving this.In post 1028, northsidegal wrote:i'm not flaking on the treestump party - i thought it was today!
If you had to attribute %'s of likelihood of it being PZ/Hopkirk/Micc right now what is your %/%/%?-
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades
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Still short on time, pretty busy irl at the moment.
@Micc: It doesn’t affect my read on you, it affects your read on me/Zito.
@Regfan:
a.) Most recently mentioned clearly differs from most significant.
b.) You literally asked itvery explicitly. To quote you, ‘Like what do you think you've done here that's outside your scum range or do you think you'd have done differently if scum?’ To respond to that, I looked through my ISO thinking what I’d have done/done different as scum. I don’t get how you expected me to respond, obviously you wanted me to think about it, but now you’re saying that I’d only think of things I thought of when asked to think about it if I was scum who’d thought of them before.
c.) I don’t get what you’re saying here. I was using the example to say that we’d just assume doctor was self-protecting/protecting cop, so I probably would have assumed Cabd would self-protect- like a doctor self-heals very frequently. The differences of doc not being able to save twice, and no flips promoting fake claims obviously reduced cop power anyway.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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I don't think we're going to get anywhere with a) anymore, when looking at reads I'm looking at natural progressions, I don't think yours flows, if you're town obviously I'm wrong but talking about it more between just us and others not chiming is silly, b) I was moreso looking for things about your play this game that you could sell me on you being down due to, I got very little of that and the bits I did were weak and as for c) I'm saying this whole doc/cop type thing that you've brought up is just baffling for me because the argument has never been that "Cabd will never self save" or "Cabd will always self save", it's just me saying that mafia also have to consider who he'd be on if not himself and that'd impact their decision N1, you're the one that deviated it to some really weird place.
At this point I really need others to actually get in here and state some thoughts and if you're town Hopkirk your focus from hereon out should be looking at Micc & PZ and letting me know who's scum and most importantly why, that's the best way to convince me I'm wrong on you as well as ensure we lynch mafia today.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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Also Cabd, I'm sure you're aware how bad an idea it is to run this down to the deadline, we should ideally be lynching with multiple days to spare so when you get the chances and are online next would like you to respond to my earlier question and dump your thoughts since right now I'm probably only 60/37/3 re; confidence levels.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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just on intuition i think that hopkirk is town here. obviously i'm going to review but unlike with micc or with pz where looking back i can see some of their actions in the context of scum, i have a hard time imagining any scenario where hopkirk was scum this game.
when it comes to micc and pz, someone has already gone through the main points that i had with regard to the pz/chip interactions. chip seems to approach pz's attempts to start a conversation not as a townie pointing out that they're scum, but as a scumpartner starting some theater. i think it's only after the four votes pile on in quick succession that chip gears it up and realizes that he's being hard bussed - he goes from approaching the conversation attempting to get both of them townread more to more of a panic mode where it seems like he's actually going to get lynched.
the nightkill is an entirely different bottle of wifom. what we know is that scum primed ucv night one and ignit night two. initially, we thought that the seemingly nonsensical action of igniting would indicate that cheeky's empty slot had just taken the random action, but that was proven wrong. from there, now it seems like the prevailing theory is that scum did it as an intentional act of confusion, but i'm not so sure. what i think we should all consider is going back to the possibility that scum just weren't around to submit an action, even though it wasn't cheeky's empty slot. with that in mind the only relevant piece of information that we would have to discuss would be the ucv priming night one. disregarding the extranous night two action saves us from wasting our time and chasing ideas that go nowhere on the wifom that is the ignition, and lets us focus on the actions that we can more probably presume to be relevant (the motivations behind the priming).-
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Papa Zito Jack of All Trades
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hiIn post 1033, Regfan wrote:@Zito
I fold- You call
yes thatthat
For me that was a quote wall. I'm not gonna go full Mastin on anyonea quote wall
‽?
oh ho ho you call those wallers, get your shit together Regfan we all know who Captain Wallpost is.MoI and RC
Do they even exist. Do I even exist. Are we all just a random assortment of atoms that happened to come close enough together to briefly swirl about in a state we tell ourselves is "consciousness" but is really just a passing whiff of the True Scent of the Universe?would be
If you'd met either one of those you'd know that was their default statevery disappointed
Don't wanna wait till tomorrow.right now.
By themselves sure, but they a) became something of a pattern, and 2) were completely unnecessary from someone who seemed at least vaguely suspicious of Chip throughout the day if not outright sus as depicted in that quote.The early semi-defenses of Cheeky feel like a really really flimsy reason to think they're linked there.
Can I get one of these in English?Did you take a look at her thinking that Cabd had scum slipped and the way she went into explaining that when you'd scum read her or at any point? Would like to hear how you thought that came from scum.
I took a gander at 910 and it's a fine piece of work. What precisely is your beef with my Hopkirk bit?KappaJust MonikaAge is a very high price to pay for maturity.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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I saw a big post and I was like "Yes, finally something to read PZ on", had a chuckle during reading it but now I'm left wanting more meat from you.
I'm talking about the spoiled below from her, I assume you'd read it at some point of the game? I personally thought it made her very obviously town since "I think X has scum slipped" and the thought process behind it being so detailed is a very hard thing to fabricate as scum and he way she'd dropped it all felt very much like an attempt to gamesolve. That said I can somewhat understand her lynch being a mechanical type one with the "The night action makes the most sense if she's just mafia" but in your case you'd scum read her before then, so yeah, what made you think the below came from scum?
Spoiler:
As for your Post 910 it's the Hopkirk read I'd like to see a little more explained about since you seem to think his BTD push is and timing is perfectly logical whereas I'm looking at it and reading it as very unnatural there. So what about it did you like exactly at the time and what's your thoughts on itnow?-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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Can you be a little more specific about this because lol I'm kind of in the opposite boat where I'm looking through Hopkirks ISO and there's very few things that look townie to me at all and can see a few things that have scum motivation behind them, most of which I've gone into recently.In post 1038, northsidegal wrote:just on intuition i think that hopkirk is town here. obviously i'm going to review but unlike with micc or with pz where looking back i can see some of their actions in the context of scum, i have a hard time imagining any scenario where hopkirk was scum this game.
Yeah, I think I commented on this earlier and everything you're saying here makes sense.In post 1038, northsidegal wrote:when it comes to micc and pz, someone has already gone through the main points that i had with regard to the pz/chip interactions. chip seems to approach pz's attempts to start a conversation not as a townie pointing out that they're scum, but as a scumpartner starting some theater. i think it's only after the four votes pile on in quick succession that chip gears it up and realizes that he's being hard bussed - he goes from approaching the conversation attempting to get both of them townread more to more of a panic mode where it seems like he's actually going to get lynched.
This is kind of meh for me in that I don't think it's likely the night action was due to "Someone forgetting to submit" at all, I think the odds of that being the case are in the low 1-2% region which means there's a little more to the actual act of doing so, I'm fine with people not wanting to focus too much on it due to "WIFOM" though I've obviously stated my theory on the matter. I don't think we'll gain anything from "Why was UC selected N1" since I explained earlier mafia have to pick someone unlikely to be saved or lynched, he fits in every world for that.In post 1038, northsidegal wrote:the nightkill is an entirely different bottle of wifom. what we know is that scum primed ucv night one and ignit night two. initially, we thought that the seemingly nonsensical action of igniting would indicate that cheeky's empty slot had just taken the random action, but that was proven wrong. from there, now it seems like the prevailing theory is that scum did it as an intentional act of confusion, but i'm not so sure. what i think we should all consider is going back to the possibility that scum just weren't around to submit an action, even though it wasn't cheeky's empty slot. with that in mind the only relevant piece of information that we would have to discuss would be the ucv priming night one. disregarding the extranous night two action saves us from wasting our time and chasing ideas that go nowhere on the wifom that is the ignition, and lets us focus on the actions that we can more probably presume to be relevant (the motivations behind the priming).
Is there anything from Micc that makes you think he's mafia here that I can take a look at or do you want me to explain my town read there?-
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Papa Zito Jack of All Trades
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I'm not sure why you're so impressed with that series of posts given it was completely wrong.In post 1040, Regfan wrote:so yeah, what made you think the below came from scum?
But to answer your question: I had the benefit of subbing in after the big reveal + cabd's thorough debunking. I've also seen scum attempt "gotchas" in the past in the name of scumhunting. I didn't think there was anything particularly town about any of that at all.
In 247 Hopkirk says he wants info from BTD. That's because BTD has done Jack and his cousin Shit all game at that point. BTD disappears on V/LA until 383, and when pressed about reads, finally drops this bombshell:As for your Post 910 it's the Hopkirk read I'd like to see a little more explained about since you seem to think his BTD push is and timing is perfectly logical whereas I'm looking at it and reading it as very unnatural there. So what about it did you like exactly at the time and what's your thoughts on itnow?
This post is a solid 0/10 on the Helpfulness scale and absolutely begs to be pushed. It's unacceptable at that stage of the game to both be a completely null presence AND not cooperate.In post 424, BTD6_maker wrote:
I have skimmed the game.In post 422, Micc wrote:Let's start with these:
Have you read the game?
Who do you want lynched today?
I cannot say I want any one person lynched at the moment. My reads are still very weak and flexible. I will be able to give a better answer later today, perhaps. I do have a very weak scumread on the CheekyTeeky slot, but that slot is being replaced and I will have to read the replacement.
Oh look Hopkirk agrees. Micc is also pushing BTD to do something anything please God help because the alternative is, what, listen to a bunch of useless pontificating?In post 425, Hopkirk wrote:Not much point leaving my vote where it is when it’s waiting for a replacement.
VOTE: BTD6
383 – Gives light scumread on Cheeky, doesn’t follow it with a vote, and promises more content later.
421 - Two days later. No further catch up. Follows up slightly on Cheeky but no vote. Complains about activity (kind of ironically).
Don’t really like the entrance. Both those posts look longish, but have no significant content in them. I could very easily see the Cheeky vote as a bus.
So yeh 100% logical. Clearly one of the two in that scenario has to be scum so it's a scum player also recognizing that a push there makes excellent sense, time to do things that look town but that doesn't detract from the argument any.KappaJust MonikaAge is a very high price to pay for maturity.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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I don't think Cheeky being wrong about Cabd scum slipping has any real relevance to whether it comes across town or not? I think her thought process shown behind why she thought he scum slipped makes plenty of sense and I think the manner in which she put "parts of it down" in the thread at a time to try and work out the other scum also makes sense as town. That said willing to just accept we may read games very differently if you didn't read that as town.
I....don't think Post 424 is a terrible post from BTD? I think the stance of scum reading the Chip slot but wanting to wait for a replacement before throwing down a vote on it is something that makes a lot of sense? I would agree that it'd be nice to have seen more from him there but his "I'll give you a better answer later today" would probably mean giving him that time and not uh, voting him a few hours later is the right move? Like, look at Hopkirks reads and thoughts before that BTD post, he's attacking and scum reading Chip but he puts the aside to vote BTD on reasons that all can be attributed to Chip as well?
Like you've got some dude who's just come back from V/LA, has said he's going to post more later that day, you've got a player you're been scum reading throughout the entire game, you vote the first dude a few hours after he said he'll be back. How is that not hugely problematic?-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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Like, lets just look at the above reasons here.In post 425, Hopkirk wrote:Not much point leaving my vote where it is when it’s waiting for a replacement.
VOTE: BTD6
383 – Gives light scumread on Cheeky, doesn’t follow it with a vote, and promises more content later.
421 - Two days later. No further catch up. Follows up slightly on Cheeky but no vote. Complains about activity (kind of ironically).
Don’t really like the entrance. Both those posts look longish, but have no significant content in them. I could very easily see the Cheeky vote as a bus.
His posts about #383 is mostly fine but his points about 421 is actually really really really really bad.
BTD didn't vote Cheeky because the slot was getting replaced, the same reason that Hopkirk was unvoting Cheeky to vote BTD so this should absolutely not be something that Hopkirk could be scum reading. Similarly Cheeky was fucking replacing out, how could BTD have followed up on her more when the slot was empty? How is that something to scum read him for. There's no further catch up but there is him saying in that post that he'll be having more spare time later that day where Hopkirk votes him before he gets a chance to get around to. So when you're looking at this and calling it a 'good' or 'logical' vote I'm left just going ????-
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Papa Zito Jack of All Trades
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That answer was pure avoidance. It offers asingle"very weak scumread" and says answers will be forthcoming.... "perhaps". Given at that point BTD6 had made 5/421 posts (so close) in the whole goddamn game holy hell yes some pressure was absolutely warranted. The game was way too content rich for that post to be viable. I noted this when I replaced in. In what universe is pressuring a 0 content slot a bad thing?
Can I again mention your boy Micc also dropped a vote at this very time and pressured BTD6 as well?Are they both scum here Regfan or are you not reading this with a clear head?
KappaJust MonikaAge is a very high price to pay for maturity.-
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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I'm obviously not being clear here, I think there were some solid reasons to be scum reading BTD at that time in the game, I can understand people scum reading him there and think I may have as well actually. What I'm trying to get at is that if you actually open up Hopkirks ISO and look through his reads and thoughts in the day and the progression behind them the BTD one comes out of nowhere. Obviously this'll be partially due to BTD not being active before then but if you look at the timing and reasoning behind this vote I struggle to believe that you liked it since I'd probably have burned him D2 for it.
Look at the reasoning he's presented for the vote, then look at how much (if not all) of that reasoning could be attributed to Chip there and it's bad, add to that the fact that a decent chunk of the reasoning behind the BTD vote just doesn't make sense (Didn't vote Cheeky in his recent post due to replacing out v Hopkirk unvoting Cheeky due to replacing out), like if I'm looking at this reasoning behind his vote the only way I buy it is if he's town and really was confident in Cheeky being scum and was using interaction stuff to convince himself that BTD was more likely due to it but that's a read that'd be attached to him so others looking at that reasoning and calling it good is concerning particularly later in the game when reassessment should have kicked in.-
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Papa Zito Jack of All Trades
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It comes directly after BTD6 comes back from V/LA and makes a couple giant empty nothing posts.In post 1046, Regfan wrote:What I'm trying to get at is that if you actually open up Hopkirks ISO and look through his reads and thoughts in the day and the progression behind them the BTD one comes out of nowhere.
I am completely lost how this is confusing.
So are we talking about reasoning or timing. I thought your beef was the timing.Look at the reasoning he's presented for the vote, then look at how much (if not all) of that reasoning could be attributed to Chip there and it's bad, add to that the fact that a decent chunk of the reasoning behind the BTD vote just doesn't make sense (Didn't vote Cheeky in his recent post due to replacing out v Hopkirk unvoting Cheeky due to replacing out), like if I'm looking at this reasoning behind his vote the only way I buy it is if he's town and really was confident in Cheeky being scum and was using interaction stuff to convince himself that BTD was more likely due to it but that's a read that'd be attached to him so others looking at that reasoning and calling it good is concerning particularly later in the game when reassessment should have kicked in.
If it's suddenly not the timing then what, are you questioning why I didn't go after Hopkirk for that one post? It's probably because before today I didn't know BTD was town and I'm not a terribly good revisionist historian and also north/cheeky were things that had to be dealt with for reasons I think we're all tired of hearing about?KappaJust MonikaAge is a very high price to pay for maturity.-
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Micc He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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Regfan Jack of All Trades
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So this is how I'm seeing it;
1. Hopkirk spends a few posts throughout the early/mid period of D1 pointing out some solid reasons on why Chip is scum. He at the same time has scum reads on both NSG & Cheeky and is spending more of his time focusing on them then him. He initially is voting/pushing NSG then lessens his concerns with her and starts pushing on Cheeky. None of this is an issue at all if you look at it alone, it's just needed context for what comes next.
2. Cheeky replaces out, Hopkirk unvotes Cheeky due to it and has to find a new place to move his vote, one would think the most logical placement if you're looking at his prior reads and stated thoughts would be Chip and if not him then back to NSG but it's to BTD. Given just the fact that we know that Chips mafia and playing in a world where we don't know BTD/Cheeky/NSG's alignment this should be a bit of a red flag here, now that we do know their alignments it's even bigger an issue.
So then it comes down to looking at Hopkirks reasoning behind voting BTD at that stage over some of the reasoning that he'd brought up about Chip.
His reasoning for voting BTD there is effectively:
a) He's promised content and not followed through on it and his statement here about it happening in #383 is fair but his statement about it in #421 is rather harsh (I think you're mixing up and confusing that #421 & 424 are separate posts, it's 421 he's scum reading, #424 has no real mention from him), overall it's not a dreadful reason for a vote but could have been attributed to Chip even moreso.
b) That he's not placed a vote on Cheeky and that he thinks Cheeky is probably mafia and therefore the lack of vote is suspicious, this is something that only makes sense to him, no one else should be really looking at this and going "Yeah, this is a good point to make BTD mafia" but if it's just the lack of a vote being placed fullstop that was an issue to him well Chip hadn't placed a vote at that time either and was a more active player.
So I'm looking at the, vote and the timing of it and scratching my head and am unsure why you haven't/aren't doing so too.
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