Large Normal 208 - Fireworks Festival [End]

pienyan · Post Post #5250 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:13 am

votecount 6.3

Lucky2u (1) - Nero Cain

Not voting (6) - Transcend, I Am Innocent, AxleGreaser, Sauce, Lucky2u, Whiskers

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is November 28, 21:40 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2017-11-28 21:40:00).

I Am Innocent · Post Post #5251 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:56 pm

In post 5245, Whiskers wrote:"hnmmmmmm interesting result" isn't vca.

Screw you. Don’t even friggin act like that’s all I did.

Idiot

I Am Innocent · Post Post #5252 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:58 pm

In post 5210, I Am Innocent wrote: I want to know who Nero/Whiskers/Axel/Flair's replacement find scummy.

@whiskers

Whiskers · Post Post #5253 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:51 pm

I don't even know who is in the game at this point

Whiskers · Post Post #5254 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:57 pm

And no, it's not all you did, but your following posts were similarly, lists of conclusions.
It'd be real nice if you had the vote counts and the conclusions together, maybe drawing one from the other in a clear way

They came separate and I don't care enough rn to go back and forth and try to understand where you're getting certain conclusions from

The particular one I remember was your going like "hmm look at all the people who voted X, we skills look at all the people who think You is scummy" but you don't go into why or tell us who those people are so I may fucking ignored it

Nero Cain · Post Post #5255 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:42 pm

unvote

atleast one of the following is true.

I am already voting scum
the three scum have not gotten on all at the same time
there is not three scum

Nero Cain · Post Post #5256 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:43 pm

In post 5226, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 5225, Nero Cain wrote:
UC was trying to paint me as an Alisae buddy so that could be a thing
.
is this a thing newb scum would do?

Why is no one responding to this besides the guy that I'm calling scummy?

Transcend · Post Post #5257 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:14 pm

In post 5255, Nero Cain wrote:
unvote

atleast one of the following is true.

I am already voting scum
the three scum have not gotten on all at the same time
there is not three scum

what are you thinking right now?

Transcend · Post Post #5258 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:15 pm

i think that in a world that nero vs. lucky is tvt with 4 scum -- flairsslot must be mafia, because any other combination of a team could have quicklynched lucky.

Nero Cain · Post Post #5259 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:26 pm

In post 5257, Transcend wrote:there is not three scum

a 3/15 doesn't seem impossible at all to me, maybe even makes the most sense with the low town power.

Nero Cain · Post Post #5260 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:29 pm

1x day vig
2 masons
jk
vs.
goon
???
??? w/day talk

Sauce is the only unclaimed right?

Transcend · Post Post #5261 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:33 pm

yeah that could be the case

okay my next question

in the event of 3/15, is lucky still scum?

Nero Cain · Post Post #5262 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:43 pm

possibly?

I think he's still scummy as fuck and I don't think the size of the scum team really affects whether or not he's scum. I mean, I guess you are arguing that if there's 2 scum left is he apart of that 2 man team or does he have to be apart of a 3 person team. IDK yet but I still have a good 3 days to poke around and see how I feel.

Nero Cain · Post Post #5263 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:51 pm

Sauce + Whiskers is what my unsupported kinda thinks though.

Transcend · Post Post #5264 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:11 pm

i want sauce's head but i'm feeling nice enough to give the slot a chance to redeem itself

AxleGreaser · Post Post #5265 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:02 pm

Spoiler: Post with questions I asked you.

Questions now highlighted.

In post 5234, AxleGreaser wrote:Restructuring of a question I asked earlier.

These are parts of two post that you made earlier.

In post 4986, I Am Innocent wrote:then the ***** I played with in the first flower game.

In post 4992, I Am Innocent wrote:At axel, your other play style was very confrontational and not likely a successful way to remain
unlynched
as scum, so yeah I do see it as AI.
and yet in that game Flower Viewing Festival and a number of others, I did remain
unlnyched
.
So your claim that there is a Alignment indicative, scum reason for the style change is not aligned with objective truth.

What I didn't see was you do either before or after you made the read, was try to find out if there was town or other reason for the style change.

So a reasonably obvious (to me) town reason is:
and did that ***** play style help town lot? or just make lots of noise? (probably why it was seen as *****)
Did that playstyle let people just run away and say ***** (as they(TSO/Garmr) did in masquerade), whereas this game me questioning some people resulted (coincidently) in them replacing out, then flipping town. So frankly I am not sure everyone will agree I wasn't a **** here too. But I really did try.
And with number of people my approach let me see the towniness in their posting.

So my question to you is.

Was there a reasonably obvious town (and personal) reason for the change in how I play?

Why didn't you seem to consider or look for that?

Do you now see the claim you made about the style change, is not AI. As my old playstyle also tended not to get lynched.

FYI: I assert the style change was decision made quite some time ago before the game and is thus not a town tell.
(its was also related to the discussion in the geriatric players thread, That i had before the game.)
So while without that it might actually be town indicative (pro town)(less noise in thread is good for town) I assert it wasn't even made because i rolled town. I made the decision some time ago.

Please either explain how it is in fact scum indicative or ...

What is concerning me is:
What you appear to be doing is looking for a way i can be called scum. A theory in search of facts.

Now that could be you just tunneling the idea or it could be scum painting.

Help me see which it is please.

You replied.

In post 5235, I Am Innocent wrote:Axle i hated playing with you last game. You frustrated me as town, power role town that got me undue attention and an early claim/exit as I recall. But there is value in that play style. I’ve seen twoface act the same way and when a player like that
tunnels
on scum it is terrible for the scum team. So while I hated it last game I still see value in it.

So I was wary from the beginning. Factor in this change in play style I was wary from the beginning

That did not answer any of these 3 important questions.
So my question to you is.

Was there a reasonably obvious town (and personal) reason for the change in how I play?

Why didn't you seem to consider or look for that?

Do you now see the claim you made about the style change, is not AI. As my old playstyle also tended not to get lynched.

You originally described my playstyle euphamistacally as.

In post 4986, I Am Innocent wrote:then the ***** I played with in the first flower game.

and at that point I agreed the style has changed and did so in order to be less *****

but now you have described the style as a player that

tunnels

. I would not describe it like that. I describe it as focussed. I still am.
Your claim is false my style has not changed in that regard.

Indeed shortly after wards you provided evidence that I had been focssed/tunneled in this game. Were you trying to prove your own meta read wrong?

In post 5236, I Am Innocent wrote:Axle your vote history looks like this

Nero (short lived rvs type vote)
Quick
Whiskers
Gerry
Smocaine
Assemble

Interesting so many living players have voted whiskers this game (me, lucky, Nero, axle), once again I don’t think I want to push whiskers today.

So yes I did indeed vote only limited number of people in this game. Which would suggest I focussed on my reads and pursuing them just like you claimed I wasnt?

Can you explain why the conclusion in 5236 has so little to do with the information in the post?

Can you explain why showing me voting list of relatively few people didn't make you wonder whether or not your claims about me being as focussed /Tunneled as I had been previously.

The actual changes since flower festival, are.

I didnt tunnel you?

I also start my questioning I think slower than i used to in order to establish dialogue first. That makes it more expensive for scum to run away.
I also post fewer posts than I used to. I think more critically about which ones really matter. See geriatric players club thread for whys on that one.

Summary.

When challenged whether you claim was AI you said it was when shown it wasnt. You simply ignore that and move on calling it wary.
You provide no explanation why you made no effort at all to find out if there were reasons other than being scum for the style change.

You say

So I was wary from the beginning.

but I don't remember and when I went back and looked I dint find any effort by you early game to try and interact with me and sort me out by finding out whether the style change or anything else was alignment indicative.

Where was the curiosity that wariness should have generated acted on in the thread?

What you are doing would be straight up scummy BUT

In post 5235, I Am Innocent wrote:Axle i hated playing with you last game. You frustrated me as town, power role town that got me undue attention and an early claim/exit as I recall. (note I havent checked what happened yet busy, and it probably did.)

However that smells like bad blood, and it could as towny explain bias.

So again I ask

Now that could be you just tunneling the idea or it could be scum painting.

Help me see which it is please.

postscript

In post 5235, I Am Innocent wrote:Why no responses on these two items yet?

(So yes i will be getting to lot of your questions, you asked quite few many of which in your VCA I presume were meant to be rhetorical)
However when i examined at least some of them I found the seemingly obvious to you conclusions to your (rhetorical?) questions didn't actually follow from the facts.
The problem was not that there was a contradiction, but mainly that you over looked all the alternatives, you just drew the conclusion you seemingly set out to support as if they were the only possibilities. When others exist.

As for claiming my role I saw no need to reclaim and you gave none. So as i had said I was VT, I didn't bother restating it. I am still a VT.
Apart from anything did you actually think about that question? It seemed pointless to me.
If a power role had chosen for some reason to lie the other day, then you asking for a reclaim without providing any reason or explaining the town utility of it, would not I think likely be a reason for them to change their mind now would it?
Do you have an explanation why town power role that decided to lie the other day should suddenly now not?

I certainly agree that any power role claiming now is going to have some very serious explaining to do. They are going to need a very good pro town reason for the previous lie.

As for reads lists you are currently throwing a rather large spanner in my works. But yes I will be getting there. I imagine my lines of inquiry and a desire not to rush to judgement were already quite clear to you. It was important to me today to get more information not just compare lists.

Before you started fitting facts to suit your theory you for instance didn't look scummy to me.

But that where it gets hard many of the alive people didn't. In my case so many of my scumreads died recently and then flipped town, my reads are all in mess.
I had hoped Gerry/Smocaine and or Joey/Viomi/Ass would throw light on Whiskers. And then if there was another scum, it would likely be much easier to see by then.
So I really expect I need to reconsider scum in places I thought I had eliminated.

If you are town it really would be handy if you helped me eliminate you faster.
So far you are not helping me see the fitting facts to theory that you have been demonstrated to be doing, is just town you.
Evidence of when you were ever curious and tried to find out you were wrong about me would be nice. Fien you were wary from the start. What did you do to find out if the wariness was justified or in anyway at all scum indicative?

But I have not found any. Indeed you straight up ignoring the pink questions above seems like an admission there isnt any.

And yes I wanted to discuss whiskers with you earlier today. But significant parts of what you have said since both out date that and are problematic for me in the seeming disconnect between the evidence you provide and the conclusion you draw. More fitting evidence to preexisitng theories.

Transcend · Post Post #5266 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:48 pm

great

sauce can't even post yet

he activated his account incorrectly -_-

AxleGreaser · Post Post #5267 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:54 pm

@thread Sorry about the last post being so big it got away from me.

Spoiler: I just find this so frustrating

@IaI

Questions? in color

I will try somewhere else. hopefully not at all controversial to you.

Note we both agree Lucky looks townish. It is a consistent position you have held for while. I didn't find your earlier reasons for that position and mine are in the thread.
So I am not disagreeing with the resulting read.

As before.
My question is more about whether you are fitting facts to what you believe or working stuff out from the thread.
So Iam not even challenging your reads in anyway. But i want you to examine the process you used and tell me if it has shortcomings.

Earlier you made this VCA post about some VCA
I have also looked at Luckies ISO and pulled out two sequential posts. And added those they are now all in time order.

Spoiler: the posts

Following those Vote counts one of the things you said was.

In post 5184, I Am Innocent wrote:Why does scum Lucky stay on mathblade until it can become a wagon again (4400).

I presume that is meant to be rhetorical question as it was not asked of anybody.
So that would mean that is you suggesting your VCA shows that to be true or supported by the evidence.

But there are indeed a wide range of reasons in hypothetical world why a hypothetical scum!lucky would still be there.

Here are some.

1 Lucky made zero posts during the time window bracketed by those vote counts. So it is quite plausible Lucky was not even online reading this game when you think they should as scum have done something.

2 Hell VCA at 4338 was at 1:07am the next one when it had reformed at 4378 was at 1:59am The only vote to get off Math happened at 1:01am (all in my TZ) your times (but the gaps should not) will vary) basically that happened so fast, that you thinking Lucky should be getting off for a scum related reason is very implausible.

3 Even if lucky had been around, Given the eww nature in Luckies mind even if they looked at the thread decided eww they might have just gone away again anyway.

4 If the wagon appeared to have gone away, why on earth get off? It would seem to me that staying on scum buddy while other people lynched town might well be a good plan.

5 yes while every vote that gets off the scum buddy, does perhaps lower the likely hood of people coming back; Townies with reads were not going to be greatly persuaded either to vote their read or not based on Luckies presence or absence. I know momentum is thing but that doesn't look to me like case of it.

5b In fact: The two votes that came back were OMGUS from Viomi and Transcend coming back to where they had been. Jumping off and going elsewhere in that time window would have looked quite bad. And not achieved any material gain at all.
Are you sure you think getting off is the thing most scum would do most of the time?

6 Vote hoping off your scum partner like that could later be seen as scum indicative. Especially if there was no good reason for the switch.

Basically there are huge number of factors involved in why both townies and scum move votes around.

Did any of those other possibilities occur to you?

Or did you simply find something you could say supported your view (town lucky read) and then not actually examine all the other evidence.

Now that does not suggest that Lucky is scum.
But your point about lucky is in fact quite NAI.

but my problem is you did not seem to investigate it for veracity or alternative explanations.

Do you have problem with my analysis that you point is actually NAI.

Do you have an explanation why when working the game out you didnt notice or even seem to look for such alternatives?

Transcend · Post Post #5268 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:56 pm

you're a wild dude axle

I Am Innocent · Post Post #5269 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:49 pm

Axle what I think you are missing is the fact just because you didn’t get lynched as town in the last flower game despite that play style doesn’t mean as scum, you could properly properly reflect that play style and not get lynched.

That’s the hard part about this game as mafia...faking play and having it come off as townie.

So saying it was a personal choice to change your play as town is not believable to me, aka this play style change is AI, unless you show me a scum game where you properly mirrored your town play from the flower festival.

Make sense?

Transcend · Post Post #5270 (ISO) » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:53 pm

never seen axle outside this game but i'd personally be bum-fucked if he flipped scum after all that effort

Nero Cain · Post Post #5271 (ISO) » Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:49 am

I get pushed after effort all the time :/

other than being active lurkish early game I'm not really seeing a play style change. Though TBF, I'm kinda glazing over his posts.

Nero Cain · Post Post #5272 (ISO) » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:03 am

@IaI

you had asked me to repost my Lucky case, why no comment?

In post 5225, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 5091, Nero Cain wrote:My original town read on Lucky was a mostly holdover from UC. Claiming scum is WIFOM and every once in awhile there are scum that claim scum. The reason that scum get away with this is because bad/dumb town do it. I had felt like UC's scum claims were the type of Lulzy claims that come from silly town that think they are doing something useful. I had also felt like UC was an easy lynchbait target and I didn't really have an issue with Lucky's first content post like Rhah and Math did.

In post 3954, Nero Cain wrote:
TBF, Lucky has seemed maybe a little lurky lately
but I agree that both cases against him have been crap.
this was my first little side eye against him. I'm sure you'll pull quotes that show me still town reading him (and I was) but yeah...I'm always going to have differing thoughts in my head.

My real concern with Lucky started with his quick hammer of Math. Being on a scum lynch is a tremendous amount of town cred and scum desperately trying to get on and it also had the added benefit of cutting off discussion and ending any mass claim. If Lucky is scum then I think this points somewhat to scum being in the unclaimed trash.

In post 4893, Nero Cain wrote:Luckys quick hammer on Math was terrible and I looked back in my post log. UC was trying to paint me as an Alisae buddy so that could be a thing.

In post 4908, Lucky2u wrote:
In post 4887, Nero Cain wrote:Lucky why didn't you claim yesterday?

I will probably not vote ass.
Didn't need to. I was in full control of the lynch with my hammer, why then add my role, it would only benefit scum to know at that point.

-1 nero
I think it was a perfectly reasonable question to ask why he didn't claim yesterday so I'm not the biggest fan of the slight pushback here.

I also feel like, if his reasoning for not claiming was that scum might shoot at him why he'd claim VT the next day. That seems very inconsistent.

In post 4933, Lucky2u wrote:I got my hammer, if you want my neck, come and get it.
scum threatening to self-hammer?

My experience with Lucky is that he's an unapologetically bad hypocrite. Doesn't necessarily mean he's town but that's aleast normal for him. I remember alot of people pushing UC as scum but it seems like the UC/Lucky hate has really died down since I've started pushing them. Who was pushing UC as scum and is now not pushing Lucky as scum, anyone still alive?

Nero Cain · Post Post #5273 (ISO) » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:07 am

In post 5209, Transcend wrote:So long story short I'll eat my hat if he didn't bus at some point and the only person left is whiskers

If you knew that Alisae was a busser as scum, why didn't you want Whisker blood for so long?

Nero Cain · Post Post #5274 (ISO) » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:13 am

In post 5221, Lucky2u wrote:However given my unpopular nature in this game, the fact that I was scum reading IAI, and how easy it would have been to just jump on my wagon

I actually think the opposite is more common. Scum going against the grain since they know its wrong. Either you are just very very pocketed or you are scum yourself thats not going to bite the guy town reading you.