Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!


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Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 5:52 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Incognito, try harder.


======================================================
Votecount #45

Guardian - 3 (Erg0, Matt_S, Oman)

Adel - 1 (Guardian)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)

Not voting - 4 (Patrick, Jitsu, Adel, Xylthixlm)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
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Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 6:06 am

Post by Incognito »

Xylthixlm wrote:Incognito, try harder.
Explain?
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Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:00 am

Post by Adel »

Patrick wrote:
Adel wrote:I want patrick to explain why in more detail, it is necessary.
Even if we assume for a second that he's definitely an SK, it's extremely risky to keep him alive. He has an anti town win condition, so we know that anything he's saying is to help keep himself alive. If there comes a situation where it's in his best interests to go against our wishes, he'll do it without hesitation, and that kind of situation could easily arise (where we couldn't lynch him because we'd immediately lose to the mafia).

But really, I see no reason to assume he's telling the truth anyway. I was leaning towards voting him even with the cop claim, all his new claim has done is removed any possibility that he's protown, making it a more solid lynch. I don't see how claiming SK has made it anymore likely that he actually is an SK, can you explain to why you think so? I think it's likely Guardian is mafia.
this is exactly the rationale mafia would forward. look, the town right now is at an underpowered disadvantage, and our best chance is for guardian to nk mafia members.
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Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:02 am

Post by Guardian »

Incognito wrote:Actually, now that I think about it, Guardian, if you're truly the Serial Killer, why did you lie from the start? Why didn't you just enter the game and claim Serial Killer instead of continuing to try and deceive us with Chaos_Omega's false cop-claim if you truly wanted to place the town's best intentions ahead of your own?
I'm not pro-town. It would have been much more in my best interests had we gone to night having lynched someone else and no one knowing I was an SK, something I believed was a legitimate possibility. I saw the cookie crumbling in the other direction, and decided that claiming and hoping you guys see the logic in letting me live was the best idea.

Incognito, truthfully, I assume the role I am given, and I'll be trying for a win. If at a point that deviates from what helps the town, I'll go for it. However, two things are true:
1) I need to eliminate some mafia to win.
2) Not trying to eliminate them quickly, and according to the town's wishes, will just get me lynched tomorrow. So yeah, if you want to lynch me tomorrow, I could really understand that, I'm a 100% anti-town lynch, and I can't really be held accountable then as much as I can be now. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. For *tonight*, I *can't* backstab the town, because then there would be no *hope* of me being spared tomorrow. Whatever the town wants me to do with my kill, I'll do.

Seeing as how I don't need to try to act not scummy anymore,
unvote
.

Adel I think will vote with me, even if she is scum and I vote a buddy of hers. That's a great deal, from my POV. However, I think she really might be the best chance of a mafia lynch today, a goal that's absolutely critical. I don't want to be in a 3-3-1 scenario tomorrow any more than townies do. I'm going to re-read (again), and really try hard to ascertain what the most probable mafia member lynch is.

I'm honestly baffled by the suggestion that I'm mafia claiming SK. That just seems like such a huge stretch to me. I really don't know how to respond to that; I'm just not.

Really, the people who are voting/thinking highly of voting me and want me lynched immediately (e.g. Erg0, Oman, Patrick) -- that's actually a slight scum tell. The mafia must be absolutely writhing right now about me possibly not getting lynched, and would love to just hammer and get me dead. Food for thought^.
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Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:04 am

Post by Guardian »

Wow, note the similarity between Adel's rationale in her post and that of the last paragraph of mine.

Adel, we may only infrequently get the same alignment, but that line of thought from you is encouraging to me in that we
might
actually share a common goal here, of lynching and killing mafia :x.
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Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:04 am

Post by Adel »

unvote, oman
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Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:38 am

Post by Matt_S »

Wow, spring break seems to be an interesting time for mafia.
Unvote Guardian^2
. Well, we have one claimed scum already, so if we can lynch mafia today, and we get a crosskill tonight, that leaves our serial killer and maybe another mafia tomorrow. If Adel's right about Guardian being a good scumhunter, and he actually is a serial killer, then we could have a decent situation tomorrow.
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Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:55 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

Incognito wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:Incognito, try harder.
Explain?
Guardian has claimed SK, yet you are attacking him for not being sincerely protown before the claim.
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Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:27 am

Post by Jitsu »

Matt_S wrote:Wow, spring break seems to be an interesting time for mafia.
Unvote Guardian^2
. Well, we have one claimed scum already, so if we can lynch mafia today, and we get a crosskill tonight, that leaves our serial killer and maybe another mafia tomorrow. If Adel's right about Guardian being a good scumhunter, and he actually is a serial killer, then we could have a decent situation tomorrow.
How much do you trust Adel right now? What do you think the likelihood is that she is Mafia?
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Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:33 am

Post by Erg0 »

Guardian wrote:Think of it this way:

Why would I claim SK if I didn't legitimately think a rational town would not lynch me?
Because you were going to get lynched anyway? Because you're mafia trying stay alive? All that your claim proves is that you want to survive, which isn't indicative of alignment.
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Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:34 am

Post by Adel »

matt_s: check out this game for an example of guardian doing his scumhuntung thang as scum: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7270

lt;dr : as scum guardian replaces in a hammer scum with his first post, and then killed another scum with his nightmove. Town wins, despite being primarily made up of fools.
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Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:34 am

Post by Erg0 »

Matt_S wrote:Wow, spring break seems to be an interesting time for mafia.
Unvote Guardian^2
. Well, we have one claimed scum already, so if we can lynch mafia today, and we get a crosskill tonight, that leaves our serial killer and maybe another mafia tomorrow. If Adel's right about Guardian being a good scumhunter, and he actually is a serial killer, then we could have a decent situation tomorrow.
You're only looking at the best case. If we go 1 and 1 on the lynch and kill then we're in LyLo anyway and we may have an SK running around that we can't afford to lynch. At that point Guardian may not need to follow our direction on kills any more.
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Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:41 am

Post by Erg0 »

Adel wrote:matt_s: check out this game for an example of guardian doing his scumhuntung thang as scum: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7270

lt;dr : as scum guardian replaces in a hammer scum with his first post, and then killed another scum with his nightmove. Town wins, despite being primarily made up of fools.
So you think that we should just let him decide what's in the town's best interests? Do you have that little faith in your own ability to find scum? I mean, I could point out games where I've found the scum, and I'm sure that many others here could as well.
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Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:09 am

Post by Matt_S »

Jitsu wrote:How much do you trust Adel right now? What do you think the likelihood is that she is Mafia?
I trust Adel quite a bit since she seems to know how to get things done in the long run. Adel seems to attract scummy actions with her craziness. However, if Guardian^2's actually mafia, then I'd have to put Adel as fairly likely scum. That's for a variety of complicated reasons.
Erg0 wrote:You're only looking at the best case. If we go 1 and 1 on the lynch and kill then we're in LyLo anyway and we may have an SK running around that we can't afford to lynch. At that point Guardian may not need to follow our direction on kills any more.
Picking two suspicious people out of eight and none of them being scum isn't likely to happen. Even if only one of the two is scum we're in a fairly good position. However, if Guardian^2 is the serial killer(and I haven't heard any counterclaims[lol]) and we lynch him, it could be lynch or lose if there's 3 mafia.
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Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:48 am

Post by Erg0 »

Do you disagree with my scenarios on the last page?
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Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:56 pm

Post by Adel »

At this point I think it would be best for us to sit back and let Guardian ask whatever question he wants from whatever player he wants until he is comfortable that he knows who we should lynch today
and
who he will NK tonight. Unless he kills two mafia between today and tonight, we lynch him tomorrow. That way it doesn't matter if he is mafia or a Sk. We ge the results we want, or he dies.
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Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:03 pm

Post by Adel »

Erg0 wrote:
Adel wrote:matt_s: check out this game for an example of guardian doing his scumhuntung thang as scum: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7270

lt;dr : as scum guardian replaces in a hammer scum with his first post, and then killed another scum with his nightmove. Town wins, despite being primarily made up of fools.
So you think that we should just let him decide what's in the town's best interests? Do you have that little faith in your own ability to find scum? I mean, I could point out games where I've found the scum, and I'm sure that many others here could as well.
dude, he killed two scum with one game post.

He read the game cold and was right twice. It alo shows him killing two mafia with one post when he had what was effectively an SK alignment. The town one. I understand that this game we are in is not a mountainous game, but I think it is a safe bet that Guardian will perform the same way again if he is a sk.

The scum will almost always NK each other if they possibly can.
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Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:05 pm

Post by Incognito »

EJ was pretty obvious scum in that game though and Killah Nine basically screwed himself over by mentioning he wasn't "sold on the case against EJ". That was a pretty easy read for Guardian who replaced in and quickly hammered EJ.
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Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:44 pm

Post by Erg0 »

One game doth not a meta make. This is a silly idea.
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Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 5:10 pm

Post by Guardian »

I'm pretty accurate in all my games. but i dont think "accuracy" meta matters.
whatever, this is for y'all to decide, not me. I have no incentive to tell the truth about my meta.
----


Adel, you place high demands, but I think I'm up to the challenge. Anyways, I'm glad you and others are talking in the conext of not ylnching me today, I'll work from there :).

I think [Oman, Erg0, Matt_S] is a good place to start looking for a mafiate or three. Erg0 just missed being in my top 3 (yeah I lied about that earlier to Patrick, to seem like I wasn't trying to cast suspicion everywhere :)).

Oman, reasons stated, behavior re: me.
Erg0, yesterday's suspicion + behavior re: me and C_O. Eager for 0 discussion --> lynch.
Matt_S, previously stated, and the "me too" unvote.

Adel I think I don't want to tackle today, she's in 4th though. I'm internally debating who I think is most likely, I'll let you know who and why when I figure it out.
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Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:22 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Guardian wrote:Erg0, yesterday's suspicion + behavior re:
me
and C_O. Eager for 0 discussion --> lynch.
Awesome case. Does the bolded "me" refer to your first incarnation? If so, I don't recall being suspicious of you and I fail to see why being suspicious of the SK is a scumtell. Also, can you point out where I said I was eager for zero discussion today, or acted as if I was?
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Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:39 pm

Post by Guardian »

Thanks, I thought it was pretty awesome too.

The yesterday case was my posts 86-93.

The new part, I am referring to the entity 'me & C_O'. Not old me.

As for where you acted as if you were not interested in discussion today, it happened right around where you said that responding to me would be a waste of your time and you weren't interested in discussing any other lynch candidates.

Being suspicious of the SK is a null tell. Not wanting to consider any other possible options / close mindedness is le scummy.

You were way too eager to lynch me, before you knew I was the SK. Even now, when multiple people, all of whom *are not on my team* (unless you think that all them are my SK-buddies.... :roll:) are saying it makes sense for town + me to go after scum today, you attack that reasoning and insist that I be lynched.
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Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:05 pm

Post by Oman »

Confirm Vote on the Serial Killer
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Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:42 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Most of that case seems to go back to the premise that I'm scum because I was right about the alignments of CO, opie and Guardian Classic.
Guardian wrote:You were way too eager to lynch me, before you knew I was the SK. Even now, when multiple people, all of whom *are not on my team* (unless you think that all them are my SK-buddies.... :roll:) are saying it makes sense for town + me to go after scum today, you attack that reasoning and insist that I be lynched.
There's just so much wrong with the argument that pushing the lynch of the scummiest player in the game is a point against me. Your SK claim is irrelevant, I still don't
know
you're the SK, just that you're scum of some form. Even if I believed you I'd still want you dead because you can't be trusted to act in the town's best interests.

Frankly, I can't believe it's taken us 16 pages to get to the point where we
still
can't get a consensus on the lynch of a player who has been WIFOM-spouting obvscum since the start of day 2.
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Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:03 pm

Post by Incognito »

Erg0 wrote:You're only looking at the best case. If we go 1 and 1 on the lynch and kill then we're in LyLo anyway and we may have an SK running around that we can't afford to lynch. At that point Guardian may not need to follow our direction on kills any more.
I think this alone basically forces us to lynch Guardian today. If we could get the best case scenario to happen, then that would be awesome but it's not guaranteed. What
is
guaranteed though is the lynching of scum today, and we really shouldn't pass that up. Obviously we'll have an uphill battle from here but it's certainly not impossible.

Unvote; Vote: Guardian
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