Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Regfan]

Eh, there's some things that I think shouldn't be read overly in a LYLO since they're more playstyle of competency dependent, I don't think everything is though.

I know there's ~100's of different things that are currently factoring into my thoughts about who's mafia/town, I think if you're town you're likely to have a lot going through your head, I think if you're scum you'll somewhat struggle in being approaching and discussing these things. That's why I think there's more gain from you just dumping where you're at here than me talking you about you. I think you said you were going to read through Chip interactions, how'd that go?

[Micc]

I had Chip in the ISO when I did both the stream of consciousness post for each of them. I had a hard time getting past thinking chip was scum and that id lynch him again in a heart beat. I think Hopkirks trajectory on chip is reasonably town looking but I could see it being scum too. All of Hopkirk's votes moves make sense to me and line up with the pace of the game, which is something I think you might have a hard time getting from replacing in. But the truth is that day 1 had some long dead periods where half the players were not around and that influenced how the wagons went.

There's no evidence of Sobolev's chip town read being genuine or making sense and I think that makes his interaction look worst than Hopkirk's does. In fact i've caught myself wondering why I never pushed at sobolev more because of that very read.

[Micc]

I will say that Zito's only posting here in day 5 being a defense of your push against Hopkirk regarding BTD vote doesn't sit well with me either. I'm afraid he's continuing a strategy of being the last one to take stances and I don't really like that. I'm probably waking towards conf bias at that point tho to try and put more thoughts in the thread for you.

what are your thoughts about what I was talking about regarding day 2 zito. Do you agree he's passive to take a stance and that his trajectory is a little wonky with regards to having a pretty big lynch pool despite acting very confident about his NSG vote?

[Regfan]

I think I mentioned earlier but I wasn't a huge fan of Zitos reasoning behind scum reading Cheeky and including her in the last of players he was willing/happy to lynch D2. It didn't feel like a case of him actually going through her ISO and looking at everything there and coming out with a read but moreso looking at "X/Y" and thinking "That doesn't look good", the problem comes when trying to work out if that's just due to him being comfortable with the situation of the game as town after lynching mafia D1 or being mafia and taking advantage of the fact that several townies had things that made them mslynchable.

I think your point about him standing back rather than takings stances today is somewhat fair in that I think him stating he'd be doing VCA sounded like busy work to me and when he stated he has spare time to get it done and then well..not doing it or anything productive in that time doesn't feel like him trying to game solve. That said he's legitimately not been on the site in a while so it's plausible somethings come up, I'm hoping when he gets back in here he gets around to stating his reads.

[Micc]

gunna be honest I had forgotten about the VCA into spare time discussion and I think its a very valid point.

If you approach day 2 from the mindset of a player who had just hard bussed their partner wouldn't your strategy be to ride the town credit and follow the lynch of the day (ie anyone off the scum lynch wagon). There's evidence of Zito pushing his town credit around in order to drive through the NSG lynch.

Every time I look at day 2 I think to myself that if I hadn't opened so strongly on her would she even have been the lynch? THe lynch wagon is Zito who if he's scum is following my lead and playing off my confidence, cheeky who may or may not have really believed in the lynch im still not sure, nsg selfvoting, me pushing strongly, and UC who basically went with it because the day was stalling. I think its evidence of zito scum but hopkirk's in a pretty advantageous spot for scum to be - off the wagon.

northsidegal (5) - Papa Zito, CheekyTeeky, Micc, northsidegal, UC Voyager

[Micc]

looking back it turns out cheeky was pretty strongly on the NSG wagon too.

I wish NSG hadn't self voted. I wasn't ready to follow through on her wagon until she did and that fifth vote makes a huge difference regarding interactions with players alive.

[Regfan]

Yeah I'm not sure how that D2 plays out if you don't come out the gates swinging on NSG. I also don't know how D4 plays out if there's not a huge debate and argument between BTD and yourself. The fact that both those days and D3 re; the Cheeky mechanical lynch were so...focused around that makes it very hard to get a good feel about who's scum here because if you're town then whoever out of PZ and Hopkirk has been put in a situation where as scum they don't have to actually do anywhere near as much as they'd normally have to do and if you're scum here it's very hard to strongly town read them based on how little they did. That said I may be alone in this but I've found your play throughout the entire game very easy to follow, most read progressions and pushes from you make sense with how I think you're evaluating the game so if you're scum here congrats? Need to really nail down and work out who's scum in the other two.

You've spoken a bit about your issues with PZ and his push on Chip, I'd like to hear a little more on you from Hopkirk, is there anything in the game so far that makes you think he's town, if so what? Anything he's done this game that you think makes sense as mafia, if so what?

[Regfan]

Also Cabd, I really need more from you here dude. I replaced in largely to attempt to gamesolve with you, understand you being busy with work but if you're not at work now which I doubt you are then can you spend a little time letting me know if you think my town read on Micc is misplaced.

[Cabd]

I know you need more.

Syr was playing league and pulled me in, but I'm back and still going.

[Cabd]

Right now my gut legit says "vote zito"

[Cabd]

1) The lack of actual push and pressure from him on Chip throughout early/mid D1, there were lots of interactions between them and lots of Micc stating he's scum reading Chip but when it actually comes down to it there's not a lot he did to try and get Chip lynched at all, this is something Hopkirk pointed out recently that I think is a valid point. Think it also makes sense as town trying to avoid going all tunnely in the early game but it's not the best look given the flip.

This is completely true.

2) The ignition can make sense from him as mafia if you're looking at it in the "He's able to make the strongest case about him knowing it's suboptimal as mafia and therefore possibly be faslely cleared due to it" knowing that he was already a scum member down and needed something to put himself in a better position come the late game to secure the win. That said think this action can make sense from others too so I'm trying to avoid reading too much into the N2 action if I can.

N2 action is a metric arse-load of WIFOM and as far as I'm concerned it didn't happen.

3) His stance of "Scum wouldn't buss" for the mid stage of this game is one I strongly disagree with and if he's scum one that he can easily use to get himself through a few easy day phases. I've already run through how I think if anything this setup promotes bussing more than dissuades it and the path of "Take easy lynches on players that didn't push Chip D1 and then do a turnaround to get someone that helped get his later int he game" makes plenty of sense to do as scum and is probably the route I take as mafia here. I did kind of like his discussion with me at the end and started believing that he really holds the stance he claims to have on this though.

So, I went through the entire game, as confirmed town, in much the same manner of thinking (IE: Scum won't bus here) and only today did I really rethink that, so fwiw I know (and you know because lol confotown!cabd) that town playeds the same way this game at least one slot did. I'd ask if NSG and BTD felt the same.

[Regfan]

Right now my gut legit says "vote zito"

If you had to attribute %'s to Zito/Hopkirk/Micc being scum (ie. 20/40/40 or 30/30/40) what do you think you're at?

[Cabd]

50-30-20 give or take?

[Cabd]

But I feel like that's too tunnely on Zito and it should be in my logical brain 40-40-20.

But logic and gut can slug that one out.

[Micc]

You've spoken a bit about your issues with PZ and his push on Chip, I'd like to hear a little more on you from Hopkirk, is there anything in the game so far that makes you think he's town, if so what? Anything he's done this game that you think makes sense as mafia, if so what?

Hopkirk's day 1 push on NSG makes me hesitate a little because I didn't think anything she regarding pushing Cabd was worthy of a scum read, but I absolutely did agree with the part about her vote on me being bad. Hopkirk's lack of interest in NSG day 2 is the real red flag tho. I might have to dig harder into this but this is a long way to come from his early day 1 nsg scum read. i get that a ton of stuff happened and I get why btd moved up his list. cheeky and uc not so much.

i also think if there is anything to be made out of uc kill night 2 its that him and hopkirk were kinda starting to butt heads.

[Regfan]

@Cabd

- I'm closer to 55/35/10 right now I think? Maybe 50/40/10?

Can you quote a few posts of Hopkirk you've liked/think are townish for me? Perhaps do the same with Zito if there's any there you like.

[Regfan]

opkirk's day 1 push on NSG makes me hesitate a little because I didn't think anything she regarding pushing Cabd was worthy of a scum read, but I absolutely did agree with the part about her vote on me being bad. Hopkirk's lack of interest in NSG day 2 is the real red flag tho.

Actually this is something I'd really really like Hopkirk to talk about a bit more, remember him mentioning the pull back on her was due to him rereading and recognising he typically mis-tunnels players like that but I'd like to know what specifically pointed to him that he might be wrong on the slot and if he'd gotten to town on the slot during the night phase why he didn't try and dissuade the wagon on her a little more since that's not a great look now.

[Cabd]

The 55 and or 50 being zito, or being hop?

[Regfan]

The higher % being Zito at the moment, there's a few small things in Hopkirks posts on the last page that I kind of liked, looking to see if you've seen/agree with it.

[Cabd]

K running iso to pull as requested.

[Micc]

Why the fuck am i the only person voting Cheeky when she's explicitly refused to engage with evidence that undeniably contradicts what's she's saying.

I like that this wagon is exclusively made of all my town reads.

These are my Hopkirk being town posts. The first reads genuinely to me and I think he'd be satisfied getting into a quote wall fight with cheeky if he were scum, but this is the post that made me actually look at what they were arguing about instead of glossing over it. I don't think the call for help to wagon her comes from scum.

the second is just not a thought that I think a scum player has at that point in the game. The same thing came to my head when the wagon popped up.

I dont' have much for posts to pull out for Zito being town. I think I was saying it before, but if you thrown out what I think is a very well done buss if its a bus, then I don't have reasons to town read zito here. that being one of my go to tie breakers is the reason i'm leaning in zito's direction here despite the questions I do have about HOpkirk.

fwiw im at around 75/25 right now.

[Micc]

yeah I did a quick zito iso scan and didn't come up with any inspiration with regards to reasons I think he's town.

with that im going to get some sleep. I feel better about my read having forced myself to put some time into this. ill be back tomorrow to respond to things you guys have for me. not going to have this kind of sit down time again until monday night.

[Regfan]

Yeah those two quotes you pulled are both things I liked of his too as well as this;

Currently my thoughts (most likely scum) are BTD>UC>Cheeky, but I haven't looked at interactions yet.

Also just realized I could have done these over the night in this setup.

[Cabd]

So, falling asleep, but the posts that jumped out to me for a potential hop towncase are...


Top of 38

345

347

Yeah, it's bad that no vote materialized out of that; but then again I'm also a lazy fuck with my vote, too.

489 especially

I was wondering about that, given mafia looks hard to play in this setup.

feels very naturally written.

534

611 not a "don't hammer" just a "provide reads before you hammer" where I think I'd be trying to see if I could get UCV to shop around. Or just ask for more time hoping somebody got weak nerves.

723 in that I feel like it was obvious UCV is lynchbait; so voting there then going back and nightkilling the slot if scum is a little ??? Why lynch who you primed?

861 does worry me, i can't exactly place my finger on why, though.

[Cabd]

Rereading BTD now. I thought he’d subbed in, didn’t realize he was here from the start.

Oh also this one.