On scumchat we ran a Vengeful game, and we started with the MoS strategy. I wanted to run the numbers on it, so here they are. MoS is a randomly chosen player who, if the plan is run, creates the brackets.
Edit: For those who don't know.
Vengeful Mafia
Has all the details.
Assuming scum have to kill back if they are lynched:
Scum wins 19/30 (63.333...%)
Town wins 11/30 (36.666...%)
MoS wins 40% of the time.
Town wins 23/60 times (38.333....%).
Scum wins 37/60 (61.666....%)
MoS wins 33/60 (55%)
Town wins 21/60 (35%)
Scum wins 39/60 (65%)
MoS wins 40% of the time
Scum wins 152/240 (63.3333%)
Town wins 88/240 (36.666.....%)
MoS wins 130/240 (54.166...%)
Notable things:
The KC "fix" of not making scum night kill decreases town odds by about a percent.
MoS plan increases odds of a town win by 1.666....%
MoS plan increases the odds of a MoS win by 15% in the standard variant (!).
What this means: The first stage of any 5 man lyncher game should be determining who should play the role of MoS. Then brackets and lynch occur.
More to follow on odds of the non-MoS people winning and what not.