Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Guardian]

Think of it this way:

Why would I claim SK if I didn't legitimately think a rational town would not lynch me?

This is why we're not lynching me Erg0.

Because it doesn't make sense. I claimed my true role, because while it greatly disadvantages me, it does_not_make_sense for town to lynch an SK today. It just does_not. Trying to ignore arguments to the contrary is misguided, and yes, scummy.

You counter: oh, but you have been spouting WIFOM before you claimed! No shit, dude. I'm anti-town and anti-mafia. I am not on your team, and I'm not trying to be honest and a good 'lil townie.

However, and this is the key part, that I think you are ignoring, or otherwise you can't get through your head, is that all townies and me both

need

to get rid of mafia members ASAP. I, temporarily at least, share the goals of the town.

So lynching me is not the best town strategy, and significantly hurts the town as it forgoes the opportunity for us to lynch mafia today, and for me to NK mafia. Lynching the SK, is not pro-town at this point. It is just not, and it is rather trivially obvious that this is so.

Incognito -- Erg0 presents the *worst case* if you don't lynch me, lylo with an SK running amok. An SK that will both be a target for mafia NKs, and attempting to NK mafia.

The only possible case -- the *BEST* case if you do lynch me -- is lylo for three straight days starting tomorrow.

The *BEST* and only case in lynching me is about equivalent to the *WORST* case in not lynching me.

Now, if you look at the *BEST* case in not lynching me, that's we lynch scum today, and scum kill me and I kill scum tonight, and you have 6 alive and 1 mafioso left tomorrow.

It generates far more expected utility for the town to lynch the scummiest non me player today than to lynch me.

======================================================

Votecount #46

Guardian - 3 (Erg0,Oman, Incognito)

Not voting - 6 (Patrick, Jitsu, Xylthixlm, Guardian, Matt_S, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Adel]

The *BEST* and only case in lynching me is about equivalent to the *WORST* case in not lynching me.

quoted for absolute truth

[Patrick]

this is exactly the rationale mafia would forward. look, the town right now is at an underpowered disadvantage, and our best chance is for guardian to nk mafia members.

This is bullshit. You haven't even addressed the argument at all, you've just accused me. You don't seem to be taking into account the large chance that Guardian is mafia. Wow, seriously, if you're town, your play disgusts me.

I'm honestly baffled by the suggestion that I'm mafia claiming SK. That just seems like such a huge stretch to me. I really don't know how to respond to that; I'm just not.

Why is it such a stretch? You can't think of a single argument, so you just use this rhetoric? I want you to explain clearly why you can't possibly be mafia doing this. Don't even try to dodge it, because it sticks out a mile when you try and do that.

Really, the people who are voting/thinking highly of voting me and want me lynched immediately (e.g. Erg0, Oman, Patrick) -- that's actually a slight scum tell. The mafia must be absolutely writhing right now about me possibly not getting lynched, and would love to just hammer and get me dead. Food for thought^.

Actually, I'm not voting you, and don't want you lynched immediately. I am holding off, because Incognito mentioned some analysis of Adel he wants to post, and if you're at lynch-1, you could conceivably self hammer. So I'm waiting for that. It is true that I do want you lynched today.

I'd like the people who are defending Guardian to address either my arguments about it or Erg0's arguments, which have some overlap. In particular, I want someone to explain why they believe Guardian is telling the truth about being an SK, because some people seem to be glazing right over that.

I think Guardian is mafia, probably with Oman and Xylthixlm. Adel is a reasonable reserve, but her play looks more insane/retarded than outright scummy, and the group of 3 fits together quite well.

Note: I've got no home access at the moment. Hopefully it will be fixed soon.

[Incognito]

Actually, I'm not voting you, and don't want you lynched immediately. I am holding off, because Incognito mentioned some analysis of Adel he wants to post, and if you're at lynch-1, you could conceivably self hammer. So I'm waiting for that. It is true that I do want you lynched today.

Actually this is true. I'll

Unvote

for now before someone gets tempted to hammer before I get to present my Adel analysis.

@Guardian:

I've given it more thought and I came to the realization that if you're the SK, it's actually in your best interest to not hit scum tonight and to instead hit town. I think that you

know

this but are choosing to try and present the best case scenario anyway. My thought is scum will not likely target you tonight since there is the possibility of you being un-nightkillable. So if we assume a three scum set-up and do happen to lynch scum today and you hit town tonight, we'll be left with the scenario that Erg0 had written:

If he hits town we're at 3/1/2, which is probable LyLo.

which pretty much guarantees your survival. You've already mentioned that you're assuming the role of SK and gunning for your own survival to win for your own faction so I'm sorry but I can't buy your "If you let me live, I promise to hit scum tonight" claim.

And I can think of legitimate reasons for mafia to claim SK at this juncture as well.

Adel analysis will likely come tonight when I'm back home.

[Guardian]

I'm honestly baffled by the suggestion that I'm mafia claiming SK. That just seems like such a huge stretch to me. I really don't know how to respond to that; I'm just not.

Why is it such a stretch? You can't think of a single argument, so you just use this rhetoric? I want you to explain clearly why you can't possibly be mafia doing this. Don't even try to dodge it, because it sticks out a mile when you try and do that.

Pretty much, I can't think of any possible argument to make. When I claimed, I hadn't conceived of the possibility that mafia might ever claim to be an SK in any scenario. That thought was not on my mind, I was thinking how, in my scenario, to salvage being lynched today. I'm just not mafia.

Really, the people who are voting/thinking highly of voting me and want me lynched immediately (e.g. Erg0, Oman, Patrick) -- that's actually a slight scum tell. The mafia must be absolutely writhing right now about me possibly not getting lynched, and would love to just hammer and get me dead. Food for thought^.

Actually, I'm not voting you, and don't want you lynched immediately. I am holding off, because Incognito mentioned some analysis of Adel he wants to post, and if you're at lynch-1, you could conceivably self hammer.

No, I couldn't actually. I'd then lose the game.

I'd like the people who are defending Guardian to address either my arguments about it or Erg0's arguments, which have some overlap.

Let's be clear, no one's defending me, their just realizing that the rational play is to not lynch me today.

In particular, I want someone to explain why they believe Guardian is telling the truth about being an SK, because some people seem to be glazing right over that.

Okay, this really is the most frustrating bullshit ever. I'm a freaking SK. I figured out that it made sense to claim my role, and now multiple people are bringing up

Oh, but what if he

really

is

mafia

claiming SK

. Give me a break, people. I figured out, as SK, how to benefit myself and the town *by claiming SK*. Don't mess that up for me and the town by WIFOMing yourself to death about how I could possibly be mafia.

I think Guardian is mafia, probably with Oman and Xylthixlm.

Other than crass paranoia... why? The impetus on you is to show how it is a plausible scenario that I'm mafia claiming SK, and at least nearing the likelihood that I'm SK claiming SK. Trying to lynch me off of parania that I'm some godlike mafia player who realized, as mafia, that he needed to claim SK... I mean, wtf, really...

[Guardian]

@Guardian:

I've given it more thought and I came to the realization that if you're the SK, it's actually in your best interest to not hit scum tonight and to instead hit town. I think that you

know

this but are choosing to try and present the best case scenario anyway. My thought is scum will not likely target you tonight since there is the possibility of you being un-nightkillable. So if we assume a three scum set-up and do happen to lynch scum today and you hit town tonight, we'll be left with the scenario that Erg0 had written:

If he hits town we're at 3/1/2, which is probable LyLo.

which pretty much guarantees your survival. You've already mentioned that you're assuming the role of SK and gunning for your own survival to win for your own faction so I'm sorry but I can't buy your "If you let me live, I promise to hit scum tonight" claim.

Legitimate point. Counter: If I don't do exactly what town tells me to do tonight, promise to lynch me. Promise to lynch me even if it means a town loss. This is something you guys should do and need to do, and I'm presenting it, because only if you do it should you keep me alive.

What you probably want me to do is no kill tonight, just because of the numbers. Lynch mafia: 2/1/5. NK, 2/1/4. Unless you are super sure I can kill mafia tonight (and I'm not), you want to say:

"Guardian, you're a bad person. Only very, very bad people are SKs. Therefore, we shall punish you if you don't do exactly as we say with your NK. Even if it means a town loss, it will mean an SK loss as well, so Guardian, you better damn well do what we say, or we will ensure that you lose, even if it means we lose."

Presented with that threat (that you should be making), I *have* to do what you say.

And I can think of legitimate reasons for mafia to claim SK at this juncture as well.

Now that we're considering that, I can see it. But I hadn't before I claimed. (shrug).

[Patrick]

Pretty much, I can't think of any possible argument to make. When I claimed, I hadn't conceived of the possibility that mafia might ever claim to be an SK in any scenario. That thought was not on my mind, I was thinking how, in my scenario, to salvage being lynched today. I'm just not mafia.

This is just a denial, which is worthless in mafia. You've said that it's crazy to think you could be mafia doing this, so I expect you to present reasons why that's the case. You haven't because you don't have any. End of story I guess.

Let's be clear, no one's defending me, their just realizing that the rational play is to not lynch me today.

Eh? This equates to defending you, because they're trying to keep you alive today. And stop repeating that letting you live is rational play. It quite clearly isn't.

Okay, this really is the most frustrating bullshit ever. I'm a freaking SK. I figured out that it made sense to claim my role, and now multiple people are bringing up Oh, but what if he really is mafia claiming SK. Give me a break, people. I figured out, as SK, how to benefit myself and the town *by claiming SK*. Don't mess that up for me and the town by WIFOMing yourself to death about how I could possibly be mafia.

Again, a worthless denial, with a little emotion to make it look better. You've got nothing here.

Other than crass paranoia... why? The impetus on you is to show how it is a plausible scenario that I'm mafia claiming SK, and at least nearing the likelihood that I'm SK claiming SK. Trying to lynch me off of parania that I'm some godlike mafia player who realized, as mafia, that he needed to claim SK... I mean, wtf, really...

Well... whatever flavour of scum you are, you decided that the cop claim wasn't enough, so you went for an SK claim to try and stay alive. That's reasonable play from an SK, and reasonable play from mafia. We definitely have a mafia in this game, probably with 3 members, and we don't even know we have an SK. Why is it

not

reasonable to think you might be mafia?

My suggestion of a Guardian/Oman/Xylthixlm mafia is not "crass paranoia". Those are the three players who I find scummiest in this game, and you fit together reasonably well as a mafia group (no obvious disassociations). I've already explained my suspicions quite extensively, and I don't have time to write a novel now, because I'm on limited time at the library.

Anyway, if at some point you want to present a decent argument for why you can't possibly be mafia scum, or a decent rebuttal to anything I've said, feel free. But don't waste my time with with appeals to emotion or denials or insults to my intelligence.

[Guardian]

End of story, I guess. I'm an SK.

I don't think there is an 'argument' I can make to prove that.

[Patrick]

Xylthixlm, what's your take on Guardian? Who's the play?

[Guardian]

I really feel like either the people who want to lynch me or scum, or that this is an extreme case of pearls before swine; I've claimed SK to allow the town to avoid lynching me and have a much better chance of winning, yet multiple people seem determined to lynch me, mostly with the reasoning "oh he is lying mafia claiming sk."

I can't argue for that. But I'm not mafia claiming SK. I can see why mafia might do that, but I hadn't even thought of that. I feel like even if I somehow were to refute that, people would invent another reason that it would be good to lynch me. If townies are doing this, it seems like cognitive dissonance to me; you *want* to lynch me because you *feel* I am bad. No matter the reasons that I provide, you *want* to lynch me so you'll comeup with reasons for doing so. Le sigh.

[Xylthixlm]

Xylthixlm, what's your take on Guardian? Who's the play?

If we're at 5 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK, we need to lynch mafia today. Full stop. Lynching the SK is not an option with any chance of winning.

I was pretty well convinced that Adel was an SK, and Guardian^2 mafia. Guardian's SK claim blows that theory out of the water. If Guardian is mafia, claiming SK is an

extremely

gutsy move; his claim would be flattened if someone else claimed the Guardian^1 kill. I'm inclined to think he's telling the truth.

That leaves the question of who the mafia are. I still think Adel is the highest-probability play. I think Oman is another possibility - with Adel's erratic play, she could easily be bussing her scumbuddy. I'm really not sure about the third.

I'll reread when I have a chance.

[Jitsu]

@Guardian:

I've given it more thought and I came to the realization that if you're the SK, it's actually in your best interest to not hit scum tonight and to instead hit town.

Yes, unless we mislynch. The worst possible case for the town now is a 5 townie, 1 SK, 3 mafia setup (with a Mafia Roleblocker for some added pain).

Assuming we do have a 5-1-3 setup, then the optimal play for the SK depends on whether we get the lynch right. If there's a mislynch, we are at 4-1-3. The mafia will want to NK a townie to bring it to 3-1-3 and force the SK to NK a Mafioso. If the SK fails, the Mafia win (both the town and SK lose).

If we lynch a Mafioso, then the case that Incognito and Erg0 mentioned apply. We are at 4-1-2, and the SK can NK a townie to bring us to 3-1-2 and ensure that s/he cannot be lynched by the town -- but, in an ironic twist, the SK needs to help the town lynch mafia the next day or the Mafia wins (the SK can still be endgamed, I presume).

If we lynch the SK, we are at 5-0-3 and a successful NK by Mafia makes it 4-0-3, which is LYLO.


Here is the game tree:

Code: Select all

Currently 5-1-3:


Lynch Mafia:
5-1-2 	-> 3-1-2 (LYLO)
	-> 4-0-2*
	-> 4-1-1*
	-> 5-0-1*

Lynch SK:
5-0-3	-> 4-0-3 (LYLO)*

Lynch Town:
4-1-3	-> 2-1-3 (LOSE)
	-> 3-0-3 (LOSE)
	-> 3-1-2 (LYLO)*
	-> 4-0-2*


3-1-2:

Lynch mafia:  
3-1-1 	-> 1-1-1 (Prisoner's Dilemma)
	-> 2-0-1*
	-> 2-1-0*
	-> 3-0-0 (WIN)

Lynch SK:
3-0-2	-> 2-0-2 (LOSE)

Lynch Town:
2-1-2	-> 0-1-2 (LOSE)
	-> 1-0-2 (LOSE)
	-> 1-1-1 (Prisoner's Dilemma)
	-> 2-0-1* (Endgame)

* = The town is in control of its own destiny (lynching correctly for the rest of the game should guarantee a town win)

What this means is this:
* If we mislynch, the SK must lynch a Mafioso tonight, or the game is over shortly after Day 3 starts
* Lynching scum should guarantee that the town still has a chance of winning the game.
* The only scenario in which the town controls its own destiny is if we lynch the SK today. If we do not, the town can lose, even with perfect town play. If the town wants to be in control of its own destiny, we need to lynch the SK today, whoever that is.
* If the town wants to gamble, lynching a Mafioso gives us control of our own destiny AND gets us out of LYLO if we get a crosskill tonight. If there is no crosskill, the town is in LYLO and we are NOT in control of our destiny.
* The Mafia are in the strongest position right now, but the SK is the one that has the most power to change that.
* The SK is in a very flexible position now and has several outs for winning the game. The most likely seems to be to lynch a Mafia today, NK a townie tonight (which should guarantee that the town can't lynch the SK before endgame), then help the town lynch a Mafia tomorrow and NK the last Mafia tomorrow night, bringing us to a 2-1 endgame where either the town or SK will win. If the town could trust the SK, and that's a very, very, very big IF, a temporary alliance between the SK and town could shut the mafia out of the game.

This leads to an interesting strategy: if Guardian is lying, and the real SK were to claim, the town could potentially offer an alliance to the SK.

Hmmm. From that last post, I wonder if Oman, Adel, and Guardian^2 are the Mafia and Xylthixlm is the SK.

[Jitsu]

But Xylthixlm's post also brings up another interesting possibility. The Mafia really want the SK dead. If the Mafia know that Guardian is telling the truth and is the SK, one of them could claim Mafia and thus out one of their members in exchange for the town lynching Guardian-SK. The town then only has to deal with 2 days of LYLO and the mafia get rid of the pesky SK.

[Guardian]

If the town could trust the SK, and that's a very, very, very big IF, a temporary alliance between the SK and town could shut the mafia out of the game.

Jitsu, no reply to the social contract/threat the town should make of me? That is how you can trust me. Optimal play for me is to avoid being lynched tomorrow. If you make the credible threat of lyching me tomorrow if I don't play nice, then I will have to play nice. It's win for me, since that is a way you can keep me alive, and it is win for you, since that is a way you can 'trust' me.

This leads to an interesting strategy: if Guardian is lying, and the real SK were to claim, the town could potentially offer an alliance to the SK.

Guardian is lying.

I am the real SK. Alliance now, plz?

The Mafia really want the SK dead. If the Mafia know that Guardian is telling the truth and is the SK, one of them could claim Mafia and thus out one of their members in exchange for the town lynching Guardian-SK. The town then only has to deal with 2 days of LYLO and the mafia get rid of the pesky SK.

I think you mean a mafioso could claim SK, in exchange. Yes, they could try that. I encourage them to.

[Guardian]

Your game tree is flawed by the way. If we lynch mafia, you can (and should...)threaten me into making a no kill, resulting in
4-1-2* or 5-2*.

[Guardian]

Also, 1-1-1 is a town win... unless I am UNnkable. ^_^.

[Guardian]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

[Jitsu]

The game tree I presented intentially does not list every possible outcome. The tree does not consider what would happen if there were doc protects, mafia roleblocks, or no kills, all of which are very swingy and hard to predict. Mainly because it makes the tree really complicated, but also because in a number of those cases, those scenarios are better for the town. This is a worst-case analysis based only on public knowledge from the thread.

The town really has limited/no control over the SK's actions, so I don't see the point of planning things out to that level of detail. Ultimately, the SK will do whatever s/he feels is the best way to get to the endgame. How much weight do town threats have over the SK anyway? If the SK can manipulate the game into a 3-1-2 situation tonight (which is very possible), the town threat carries no weight because lynching the SK at that point would result in a town loss.

How is 1-1-1 a town win again?

[Jitsu]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

If we lynch town today, the town is hosed and needs to pray for the SK to nail a mafioso tonight to save the game. If we lynch you, this scenario cannot happen since you are certainly scum of some sort. If we try to lynch someone other than you, this situation can happen. I totally don't follow your logic here.

[Guardian]

The town really has limited/no control over the SK's actions, so I don't see the point of planning things out to that level of detail.

I'd be taking a very different stance as town, but if you guys want to let me run free, go for it .

Ultimately, the SK will do whatever s/he feels is the best way to get to the endgame. How much weight do town threats have over the SK anyway? If the SK can manipulate the game into a 3-1-2 situation tonight (which is very possible), the town threat carries no weight because lynching the SK at that point would result in a town loss

It is all about credible threat. Credible threats are a good meta policy. Maybe I'm crazy. From your POV maybe I'm lying. But I don't see how you can't threaten me to play nice.

How is 1-1-1 a town win again?

Town says that if someone votes them, they'll vote back, giving the win to the other player, and votes no lynch. Mafia and me are forced to no lynch. We kill each other*.

*Unless there are shenanigans that prevent this.

[Guardian]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

If we lynch town today, the town is hosed and needs to pray for the SK to nail a mafioso tonight to save the game.

This assumes I am confident enough that a) I'll hit mafia and b) I won't be lynched after doing so. It is better for me to No Kill in that scenario. This is all about what I said earlier about the threat you should make of me/social contract.

If we lynch you, this scenario cannot happen since you are certainly scum of some sort. If we try to lynch someone other than you, this situation can happen. I totally don't follow your logic here.

see above.

[Jitsu]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

I think I see now. That presumes that the SK no-kills, which the town has no control over. I do not see how a no-kill helps the SK here.

[Guardian]

"Guardian, you're a bad person. Only very, very bad people are SKs. Therefore, we shall punish you if you don't do exactly as we say with your NK. Even if it means a town loss, it will mean an SK loss as well, so Guardian, you better damn well do what we say, or we will ensure that you lose, even if it means we lose."

Presented with that threat (that you should be making), I *have* to do what you say.

My post 1155 is the solution here.

[Adel]

How is 1-1-1 a town win again?

assuming that the sk can die by nk:
if it is 1-1-1 going into night town typically wins due to scum crosskills.
If it is 1-1-1 at the start of the day then no-lynch is the best move for town.

[Adel]

if I were mafia in this scenario I would totally claim SK and get Guardian lynched, providing my scum buddies a great chance to buss me and look protown.

Oman's lack of activity is totally scummy. I think he is our best bet for a mafia lynch