Surreptitious II: Secrets and Misdirection

[Transcend]

Yes

But I'm leaning towards that slot being town now

[SnarkySnowman]

Yes

But I'm leaning towards that slot being town now

Why the change? I'm still leaning scum on that slot.

[checkersman7]

is there a way to just modkill all of group B and we can just play this game with A and C

[Bulbazak]

Bulba noooo.
They're so town dude.

This better have nothing to do with the replace out. If it doesn't, then walk me through it. You're the queen of meta, so I know you're capable.

i suggest you to look at first game before make such conclusions - setup was different, but i like how hard you holding onto me, i admire your passion

I did, actually, because I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt. The first game had the exact same scum wincons.

If we compare the lists from the 2 analyses, there are no names in common. Unless, that is, we consider the unfiltered versions. In that case, we are left with only Transcend. However, I'm not ready to go down that rabbit hole, as I think he's actually town here.

Hey guys, here are these sets of random observations I'm going to post and then ignore and just vote strategically.

Except when comparing the Majiffy wagon vs. the Mick wagon, I specifically said that I didn't think the information was very telling. I only did so because Majiffy asked me to, and I only did a comparison between the two different analyses because I wanted to be thorough, even though, and I stress again, I didn't agree or think that the Majiffy wagon analysis was telling. The only analysis that I put stock into was comparing the Mick wagon with those that voted Group B during this day phase. And even that is probably not strong, as it does not include scum who were hiding on other wagons d1 and voted B and scum who were in B and supported Mick, but their absence from the VC meant that they didn't appear on the overlap. Desperado fits in the first category, because he sat on the useless LUV wagon and just coasted, and Momo fits in the second, because if I recall, he supported the Mick wagon, but was unable to vote.

Only 3 names appeared on the overlap: Transcend, Toto, and Ramicus. I felt Transcend's interactions around the B wagon felt town, and so I focused on just Toto and Ramicus. And I'm voting Ramicus, so I don't understand your point here.

Also a lot of people ITT can't read we are wagoning Ginngie not Ramcius or Desperado

Ginngie's town.

@Mod

sorry, replace me, i just don't feel like i can deal with these people without going overboard

And then people will say we can't lynch the slot because of the replace out...

Elli I doubt would seriously vote me

VOTE: Gin

You got some 'splainin to do.

your only pushe s have been on town

This is bad, especially considering your pushes on d1.

If I may:

Here's something that I think is not true which is basically an indirect push; namely,

Ginngie are just obvious town.

This is so bloody confusing and is a complete reversal of her ISO for no real reason that I can understand.



What also got me fucked up and I haven't had time to unravel is that in Night and Day, and in general, Alisae can't fight with me, she sucks at it and she knows and pushing her is something I always do. A lot of my pushing on her felt really valid and her criticisms didn't make much sense. So like I get scum vibes from it, but the thing that perplexes me is that she was still able to throw shit at me even if it made no damn sense.

The reason she quit the game is because she hates MS, she's been talking to me and invited me to MU because reasons so the replace out is hugely NAI and just her on burnout regarding this site.

We are not lynching alisae slot. Im sorry you cant see that simple fact. Scum dont rage quit like they did.

This can be so easily disproved that I'm going to hope and pray you actually tell me why you townread the slot by play before I force a powerlynch on you after we lynch Desp in C.

and after I quite literally explain that they hate playing mafia on this site and you spew the same bullshit is quite annoying.

When this is town af regardless of whatever other baggage of emotions Alisae carries relating to this site. Most of that post was game specific: this game, these players, and those reads.

To be fair that's really the only thing that's ever stuck out that I can remember. But that's a good example

And I've said that I think the replace out was NAI and that Alisae prior to that wasn't lining up with my experience of her as town or outside of games. Ginngie said she had talked with Alisae about MS before in site chat, so I asked if what we saw in this game lined up with previous conversations that Ginngie's had with her. I was given Ginngie room to clear the air in case I was fundamentally wrong about the character of Alisae. Instead, Ginngie actually agreed with my suspicions that Alisae's behavior did not match up with her town self. That was not Ginngie trying to sneak a push. That was her saying "You're right, Bulb, and I completely agree with you, and here's why.".

And if you want to talk about replace outs, go look at the pile of scum that is the Ramicus replace out and get back with me.

Will come back to 121 later. I think I'm about to have a huge rush.

[Toto]

Is it possibble your experience with Alisae doesnt line up with your previous one because:

1) they were playing a gimmick alt
2) they are frustrated about the site and therfore is reflected in the way they interact with ppl?

Also,

Your vca assumes that you will find scum in the intersection of two random groups of people. Basically your analysis presumes the conclusions which is lolscience.

[Elliberetta]

as for you being scum, its a very specific tell that hasn't failed yet and i don't think you're aware of it. tbd and kilos never got a point where it could be applied. you're scum and that's that.

I REALLY like this.

assuming you've tested for recent samples?

[Surreptitious]

Group A	Group B	Group C
EddieFenix Smocaine Bulbazak Toto Elliberetta InactionDan Creature	Majiffy SnarkySnowman Thor665 momo Lil Uzi Vert	vonflare Desperado RachMarie checkersman7 Transcend Ginngie Ramcius

Vote Count 2.2 B

vonflare (0): [L-7]

Desperado (1): Toto [L-6]

RachMarie (0): [L-7]

checkersman7 (1): EddiePhenix [L-6]

Transcend (0): [L-7]

Ginngie (3): Elliberetta, InactionDan, Smocaine [L-4]

Ramcius (3): Bulbazak, Thor665, Majiffy [L-4]

Not voting (12): Creature, SnarkySnowman, momo, Lil Uzi Vert

It takes 8 to lynch.

DPII ends in (expired on 2017-12-10 00:50:00)

Mod Notes

vonflare is V/LA until Dec 5th

checkersman7 is V/LA until Dec 5th

momo is V/LA until Dec 2nd

Ginngie is V/LA until Dec 3rd

BTD6_Maker is V/LA until Dec 7th

Searching for replacement for Ramcius

Smocaine replaces Assemblerotws

Feel free to PM me about slots that are posting too much or too little

[Bulbazak]

She reads like frustrated scum getting pushed for the wrong reasons. Her debating about how replaceouts are nai doesn't seem like game solving.

I can't tell if this is bad or scum, but frankly, I just don't care.

there's nothing i can do about other people's activity, and if it keeps happening and it keeps hindering my (and, presumably, other's) ability to form reads then i'm going to keep complaining about it

seriously, look at the pages that were produced overnight and tell me how much of that back and forth between checkers and ginngie did to further the game. it was all noise.

There's been a lot of information that has popped up in pages that you have just passed off as "noise" in this game, information that I've actually used to form reads. The problem is that you're just dismissing things as noise and then using that as an excuse to do nothing.

as for you being scum, its a very specific tell that hasn't failed yet and i don't think you're aware of it. tbd and kilos never got a point where it could be applied. you're scum and that's that.

A specific tell that is based off of my first scum game ever, is over 4 years old, and you haven't played with me in 3. And none of those most recent games are scum games. You showed in those games that you are incapable of reading me now, and if my town game has changed so much in those 3 years, do you really think my scum game looks the same?

Is it possibble your experience with Alisae doesnt line up with your previous one because:

1) they were playing a gimmick alt
2) they are frustrated about the site and therfore is reflected in the way they interact with ppl?

The alt had nothing to do with it. She was playing outside the gimmick near the end, and it was easier to read her based off of what I knew from playing with her and interacting with her outside of games. As for the second, that's why I was talking with Ginngie, since she said that she's talked with Alisae about the subject before. And even Ginngie believed Alisae was acting outside of the ordinary here.

Your vca assumes that you will find scum in the intersection of two random groups of people. Basically your analysis presumes the conclusions which is lolscience.

Do I expect scum to have pushed and voted for Mick, who was lynch bait? Yes. Do I expect scum to try to further their advantage by voting for B again in an effort to close the game, especially if town don't realize that's what the scum wincon is? Yes. So how is it unreasonable to expect that the overlap of the two would produce scum?

@Eddie:

I need you to place your vote on Ramicus. Or, if you'd prefer, you can vote Desp and try to get others to join you. Put plainly, you need to get your butt off of Checks and actually do something useful to counteract this horrible push on Ginngie.

[Bulbazak]

@Elli: Did you want recent scum samples from me. I can provide you the most recent scum game from a known alt, a hydra, and my main, although I'm not sure how much digging I'll have to do for that last one.

[Toto]

Do I expect scum to have pushed and voted for Mick, who was lynch bait? Yes. Do I expect scum to try to further their advantage by voting for B again in an effort to close the game, especially if town don't realize that's what the scum wincon is? Yes. So how is it unreasonable to expect that the overlap of the two would produce scum?

Yes, some scum are likely to have voted Mick, others probably steered away from the wagon. Also note scum don't really know for sure someone is town in this set up, as they don't know who can be traitors.

I disagree with B actually, I think town are more likely to vote B than scum. I know this sounds convenient coming from me but scum usually shy away from things they think will call attention to themselves and are generally more aware from the setup.

Also, in the case of Ramcus I found his progression on his decision to vote B and then other group natural.

And, last but not least, even if you believe those two things you have two believe that the SAME slot would vote B and also Mick. You are assuming there is some non-negative correlation between two random variables.

[Bulbazak]

You seem really intent on trying to completely discredit any analysis that's done this game, especially analysis that can finger you as scum. You agree that scum would be voting for Mick. If you just disagreed with my assumption that scum would revote for B, then you'd just say so, shrug, and move on, but you've done more than that. On the B point, we could always have agreed to disagree. But saying that the analysis is based on random variables, and not analyzing data and what is likely for scum to do based on the setup and past experience, is blatantly false.

[Creature]

I don't like any of the three vote wagons.

[Creature]

VOTE: Desperado

[Toto]

@Bubl: I don't think you understand what a random variable is.

Yes, I'm trying to discredit your analysis because

1) Your assumptions are wrong,
2) your method is wrong,
3) and

I think your conclusions are wrong.

(I'm town, and I'm very confident Ramcius is town).

If you are town please don't take it personally, and try to reconsider your reads. Desperado is a better option RN.

[Smocaine]

She reads like frustrated scum getting pushed for the wrong reasons. Her debating about how replaceouts are nai doesn't seem like game solving.

I can't tell if this is bad or scum, but frankly, I just don't care.

If you didn't care, you wouldn't have quoted me.

[Bulbazak]

@Bubl: I don't think you understand what a random variable is.

Except what I'm looking at is very much not random. Scum will make decisions based off of their wincon. Saying "Well, you don't know how many on a specific wagon are scum!" doesn't mean that scum didn't vote that wagon and were influenced by their role PM. True, we don't have a lot of information to work off of, but that doesn't mean we take the information we do have and toss it out the window in favor of tarot readings.

1) Your assumptions are wrong,

How so? You seem to agree with me about scum being on the Mick wagon, but you're not doing anything with that.

2) your method is wrong,

Well, it's better than trusting crystal balls and the power of belief, as you would want us to do.

3) and

I think your conclusions are wrong.

(I'm town, and I'm very confident Ramcius is town).

Okay, cool. But I really don't care what you think now, do I, especially when I don't think you are likely to be town here, and of course you'd say that.

She reads like frustrated scum getting pushed for the wrong reasons. Her debating about how replaceouts are nai doesn't seem like game solving.

I can't tell if this is bad or scum, but frankly, I just don't care.

If you didn't care, you wouldn't have quoted me.

I've kinda watched you, and whether you're town or scum, the end result is the same. What I'm saying there is that I think that take is hot garbage, but I really don't expect better. I also expect that we're going to have to lynch you at some point soon, so it's not worth engaging you on an obviously flawed approach.

[Toto]

How so? You seem to agree with me about scum being on the Mick wagon, but you're not doing anything with that.

I think you misunderstood. I don't think the probability of that being true is larger than random chance. If you look at all D1 town flipped wagons I don't think it is true that scum are more likely to be in the wagon than random chance.

If it was a scum flip then I would agree with you, as in D1 scum flips there is usually a scum busing.

Also I feel you are putting words in my mouth. If that is the case, please don't do that.

[Toto]

Well, it's better than trusting crystal balls and the power of belief, as you would want us to do.

I'm actually moving you to locked scum after this. Congrats.

[Bulbazak]

Here's the thing, Smocaine: You either read or you didn't read. If you read, then that take on Gin is definitely a bunch of hot garbage and is indicative of coming from scum who's jumping on the current hotness and hoping no one notices. If you didn't read, then that means your opinions, which you couldn't have had a lot of time to develop, are ill informed, and you jumping in with "You look like scum caught for the wrong reasons." boils down to a useless platitude that you think is valid for some weird reason. You could still be scum ganging up on the current quick wagon, but you could also be town who just looked at a small sampling of pages, thought you had enough to form an opinion, where in reality you don't know which way is up in this game.

[Bulbazak]

@Toto: Every time someone tries to figure things out with something other than hopes and dreams, you come in to discredit them, not based on the validity of their analysis, but rather that we should just do what feels right and anything else that tries to reduce the fallibility of players is scum driven, just because you can't argue against it.

[Bulbazak]

And yes, I think you're scum because of that, because I don't think a town player makes that sort of argument. And if they do, then they need to be lynched post haste.

[Toto]

@Toto: Every time someone tries to figure things out with something other than hopes and dreams, you come in to discredit them, not based on the validity of their analysis, but rather that we should just do what feels right and anything else that tries to reduce the fallibility of players is scum driven, just because you can't argue against it.

I have not objected to people using objective scumhunting tools (although as a statistician I think most people here don't know what they are doing).

What I've pointed out is that I scum read people who only use this and fail to show town emotions. This is a psychological game and I don't see why using psychological tools, or you know, empathy, equals to "hope and wishes, and using crystal balls", and the fact that you name it as such is both insulting and scummy.

[Bulbazak]

And I have been developing reads not based on these methods. I simply use other forms of analysis as tools to help with PoE as we get deeper into the game, because I don't believe that just reading based on emotions is an effective way to scumhunt. The thing is that you ignore those types of reads when it's convenient for you, and then when I use analysis, and then use it as a tool and explain why I'm doing what I'm doing, you go "Ah ha! So you use analysis (that I don't believe in) but then don't follow it blindly! Scum!", even though I explained my thought process and why I was doing what I was doing. You only care if it benefits you, and you're just looking for cheap lines of attacks. I don't attack players based on playstyle or how they scumhunt, because that is not alignment indicative, and I realize that other players are not like me. However, you are going "What is the easiest way for me to attack and discredit a player and maybe get a mislynch? I know! I'll attack how they scumhunt! Not their motivations or why they're doing what they're doing. No. Something superficial like playstyle is all I need! Meeeeooooowwww!".

[checkersman7]

And yes, I think you're scum because of that, because I don't think a town player makes that sort of argument. And if they do, then they need to be lynched post haste.

In this game

youre scumreading TOTO for stupidity

come again for Checkersman7???

[Bulbazak]

Toto's been in more than 5 games. I know, because I just looked at his topics. And not all of those are Newbie games. So he knows enough to know that there are different playstyles and approaches to mafia. Yet he's taking the "If I don't understand it, then it's not town." approach when it comes to how players interact with the game. And surely this isn't his first time seeing a player who relies on meta reads or someone who uses some form of wagon analysis. And if you pay attention to what his approach is in this game, it's not to question those methods he doesn't understand but to discredit them and paint them as not reliable compared to gut feels. From someone who says he's not "opposed to objective scum hunting tools" he seems pretty opposed to them in principle.