LyLo with a living SK is worse than LyLo with a dead SK - as such, the scenarios with Guardian surviving the night are not equivalent to those where we lynch him or he's NKed. If we let him live today then we'll probably never get another chance to lynch him without taking out all of the mafia first. This is obviously bad news if he's NK immune.
By my count, 3 of Xyl's scenarios above are better than 4-3-0 LyLo, 3 are about the same, 4 are worse because Guardian lives, and 2 are an instant loss. All 3 "good" scenarios require us to lynch mafia, and 2 of those 3 also require Guardian to kill mafia tonight. I think we've got a decent chance of hitting scum with either the lynch or the kill, but we'd be fairly lucky to get them with both.
This brings me to the biggest problem I have with your justification: you say that 4-3-0 LyLo is an "almost certain loss", but you're confident that we can hit two mafia overnight and put ourselves in a great position tomorrow? If we've caught two mafia already then 4-3-0 is
far
from a certain loss.
Again, this is all assuming that Guardian actually is the SK. You also have to take into account the possibility that he's mafia, which would make not lynching him a
much
worse outcome. I've yet to see a compelling reason why this couldn't be a fakeclaim made purely for the purpose of keeping him alive a little longer.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
Xyl brought up the amazingly valid point I missed, Erg0 -- If I am not the SK, then who made the Guardian^1 kill? I'm claiming to have done so, and no vig, or other SK, or lying mafia, or anyone, has come forward to be like "uh no, I shot Guardian^1".
If I have responsibility for that kill, I'm a killing role independent of whomever killed peg (presumably mafia).
So, either I'm some lying vig who fake claimed cop, or I'm SK.
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
C_O was really hoping he wouldn't have to claim, and decided to really quickly claim something that:
a) would be immediately believed for the 10 minutes til lynch
b) wouldn't be 100% sure to draw a NK.
c) would be very plausibly pro-town, and an OK role to be 'stuck' too. Little did he know there was a watcher and tracker.
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
Guardian wrote:Legitimate point. Counter: If I don't do exactly what town tells me to do tonight, promise to lynch me. Promise to lynch me even if it means a town loss. This is something you guys should do and need to do, and I'm presenting it, because only if you do it should you keep me alive.
No, I can't just do that, Guardian. My obligation is to the town while your obligation is to yourself and yourself alone. I refuse to just allow the town to lose because of the highly likely possibility where you refused to listen to the choice of the town. Further, you're acting like this "town" is one single person. Obviously this town is made up of mafia members who will also be vouching for certain people as well. I'd rather have you lynched and then have to deal with the mafia square on even if it means constant LyLo situations.
Anyway, I'd like to say a few words about Adel. The stuff about her gambit and lying to town has been covered already. I tend to regard all of that as a null-tell with respect to her alignment because as we all know, Adel has a tendency to perform gambits and typically lies to the town no matter her alignment. There are a few things though aside from the gambits and lies that I dislike about Adel's play in this game
First, I think it's not a coincidence that her main targets within this game also happen to be the players that are relatively inexperienced. Her main target in D1 was opie, a player whose join date is relatively recent and who seemed a bit preoccupied with real life stuff to properly defend himself (he ended up getting lynched and turning up town). Her main target in D2 has been Matt_S, again another player who is obviously new to the game of Mafia but whose alignment is unknown. There was a quote that I found during a reread of Adel during D1 that looks particularly damning considering the evidence we now have about opie's alignment:
Adel wrote:At this point can anyone see Mat_S being scum independant of opie?
hmmm....
The above quote came shortly after this other quote from Adel:
Adel wrote:I like how Matt_S put a fos on his scumbuddy but still hasn't decided to buss him.
It seems almost like Adel
knew
opie would turn up town but she realized the obvious dilemma with linking Matt_S with opie: once opie came up town the opie/Matt_S link would become less apparent so by asking for evidence to support for Matt_S being scum independent of opie, she could have a chance at setting up another lynch on D2.
Adel even went as far to mention the following theory during D1:
Adel wrote:
but then immediately switched the theory around during D2 to again, favor her position of pushing for a Matt_S lynch:
Adel wrote:Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be.
vote:matt_S
No, Adel. You
didn't
say if opie isn't scum then Matt_S must be; you said quite the opposite.
Adel has also been doing something that I simply can't find in any previous game she's played as scum before. She seems to be attempting to confirm herself as town by performing extremely scummy actions but then meta-gaming herself doing something similar as town in one of her previous games to really attempt to drill in the position that she is also town here. Couple this with her two instances of WIFOM within the game:
Adel wrote:I win games as town. Besides, i will probably draw a nk soon enough that you won't have to worry about determining my alignment, the mod will do it for you.
Adel wrote:3. I want to draw the NK (suck that scum, ha ha!)
and it becomes absolutely disgusting.
My theories: If Guardian is the SK, then Adel, Oman, and Xylthixlm are likely scum (consider that little "scuffle" between Xylthixlm and Adel to be a piss poor attempt at distancing).
If Guardian is mafia, then Adel and Xylthixlm are likely to be mutually exclusive scum and Oman is the third scum buddy.
Guardian wrote:So, either I'm some lying vig who fake claimed cop, or I'm SK.
Or you're mafia attempting to draw out a counterclaim from the real vig in an attempt to have him/her night-killed.
In any case, back to where I was.
Vote: Guardian
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
I already talked about fakeclaims - in my view, an SK would not claim cop as a first option. Vig would be a better bet, since it matches the abilities. Trying to fake investigation results with no knowledge of others' alignments is a pretty tricky proposition if you have to claim on day 1. I think that mafia are more likely than an SK to claim cop, since they have the advantage of knowing others' alignments.
That said, the scenario that Guardian posits above is entirely plausible. CO may not have been thinking beyond surviving to day 2. On the other hand, this thinking applies equally well to mafia or an SK.
Guardian wrote:Xyl brought up the amazingly valid point I missed, Erg0 -- If I am not the SK, then who made the Guardian^1 kill? I'm claiming to have done so, and no vig, or other SK, or lying mafia, or anyone, has come forward to be like "uh no, I shot Guardian^1".
That's ridiculous, why would the killer claim at this point? An undiscovered SK would want to stay hidden for as long as possible, mafia tend not to be too big on claiming kills, and a vig would know that he'd be an instant nightkill target if he put his hand up. If someone else made the kill than they're probably doing the smart thing and just pushing your wagon. I don't expect a claim come unless it becomes very clear that you're not going to be lynched.
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
I didn't even bring that point up, Xyl did. I'm trying to out a non-existent vig using a point I didn't even think of making until Xyl made it for me? That's why I'm not an SK?
Brilliant
.
You so totally made sense there, and got me
.[/sarcasm]
---
This goes back to my 1159.
Cognitive dissonance, scum, and pearls before swine are the main three reasons people are trying to lynch me.
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
Adel, this just goes to show, if you assumed I was telling the truth instead of trying to figure out if I'm lying, you'd be right like 75% of the time instead of the current 20% of the time...
Unless you're scum scumz here, then nice play. But seriously, Adel..
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
CO only had to be investigation immune to want to claim "Cop".
There may be a vig or a quack-doctor (either is just as probable as a sk)
You've given me scummy vibes since you claimed SK.
If Guardian is mafia, and if there is a sk, then there would be no reason for a SK to counter Guardian's claim.
Guardian wrote:Adel, this just goes to show, if you assumed I was telling the truth instead of trying to figure out if I'm lying, you'd be right like 75% of the time instead of the current 20% of the time...
Unless you're scum scumz here, then nice play. But seriously, Adel..
you typed like ou thought I was probable scum up until a min. ago.
Anyways, since I hope I don't lose 2 times, my cases and suspicions are legitimate, I'd lynch Oman, Matt_S, Adel, Erg0, in order probably. Gl town, you need it, especially since in lynching me you are demonstrating the deductive reasoning of a toothpick.
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
Guardian wrote:How about your push on Guardian^1 all day yesterday Incog? That was brilliant, too, eh?
"LYNCH GUARDIAN OBVVV SCUMZ"
If I didn't know better I'd think you were a vig. I was like 90% sure you were a dumb vig who killed me until I replaced in.
All you had to do was respond to my case and perhaps I would have dropped the accusation sooner. Strawmanning the case only made matters worse and your flip-flopping from opie to Jitsu back to opie and then to Chaos_Omega just made you look even worse.
Anyway, this is more post-game discussion than now discussion.
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
Adel wrote:Xylthixlm: why did it take you so long to generate that?
I thought the play was so obvious it didn't need generating. Sometimes I forget that other people haven't run mathematical analyses on thousands of games.
#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi
Erg0 wrote:By my count, 3 of Xyl's scenarios above are better than 4-3-0 LyLo, 3 are about the same, 4 are worse because Guardian lives, and 2 are an instant loss.
Wrong. Having an SK alive is much less of a disadvantage than having an extra mafia alive.
#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi
