Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[ProHawk]

VOTE: Kelbris

I'm now scum for him...

[Fishythefish]

@kelbris: your recent set of reads seems to be based almost completely on today - have you got any thoughts on things before that?

@DV: who is scum other than boring?

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Kelbris

I'm now scum for him...

So omgus on kelbris?

[ProHawk]

So a bit of what Fishy said.

[ProHawk]

No I lied, I forgot he had voted me in the past, but it's pretty clear he isn't pushing his own reads with any degree of conviction, not to mention his reasoning for me being scum about trying to get him lynched before he got off of V/LA is quite an incorrect assessment and reaching IMO.

[mutantdevle]

Just throwing this out there:

The scum decided not to attempt to fake claim a PR, so I think we can conclude that they are not really risk takers.

[havingfitz]

Just throwing this out there:

The scum decided not to attempt to fake claim a PR, so I think we can conclude that they are not really risk takers.

Why risk a confirmed scum kill in the next 1 or 2 lynches when as it stands...town could mislynch twice for a loss.

[ProHawk]

Just throwing this out there:

The scum decided not to attempt to fake claim a PR, so I think we can conclude that they are not really risk takers.

I believe I alluded to this earlier when I said...

I think everyone has spoken up since we finalized claims and scum have been less than tactical IMO which points to scum being in the lazier/low effort pool, of which Kelbris fits the bill quite well. I have played with DV before but I can't remember how good he is on that regard. Boring seems like she thinks things through pretty well, so I would have expected her as scum to have come up with a better plan...

How confident are you Fitz that scum would be able to get in two mis-lynches? It's a 40% chance to get caught the first time and a 50% chance the second... unless there is a cop inno and then its a 50% chance to get caught the first time and a 66% chance the second.

If they decided to put one scum into the PR pool, and one scum out of the PR pool and we lynch from the PR pool then if they survive the 3v3, it now becomes a 1v1. If for whatever reason we lynch correctly from the 1v1 then the last scum is in 3p LYLO, if we don't then they win, AND they have a partner to be able to help them lynch correctly. This doesn't even take into account the ability to discredit certain investigative PR's by throwing doubt into the mix.

Otherwise now, they are stuck in the 3 town 2 scum pool with two confirmed town players (potentially a 2 town 2 scum pool - if a cop has investigated).

I guess if they had an IC they were going up against, it would lower their chances in the PR pool pretty significantly though...

All in all a pretty tough situation to be in as scum, so I would have had the least town-read of the two jump into the PR pool and the most town-read to jump into the VT pool and just wait until it got down to 3p LYLO, but maybe that's just me?

[Fishythefish]

I had a bit of speculation typed out about what scum might or might not do, but actually I think we shouldn't talk about it. I don't think there's valuable information in the lack of PR fakeclaims - any chain of logic is going to be super-tenuous - and talking about it with PRs might give scum some info we'd rather they didn't have.

[DeasVail]

@DV: who is scum other than boring?

I don't know. I initially had Kelbris in mind, but recent events have caused me to question that. Personally I don't find it too helpful to do too much team speculation before flips are established, as I have found that it leads me astray more often than not. Given that the play from boring's slot is what I believe is most likely to come from scum, my ideal plan would be to lynch her and then work from there. I've made my case, and given that I do really think she is scum, I am not going to be giving up on this easily, but I am aware that I'm not getting much traction here. The tracker point is a fair one, and my disagreement with it is both a result of a different approach to game theory, as well as just a stronger belief on my end that boring is scum. My argument would honestly be to ignore the tracker results (given the high false negative rate) and just look at her posts and make a judgement from that.

[ProHawk]

I had a bit of speculation typed out about what scum might or might not do, but actually I think we shouldn't talk about it. I don't think there's valuable information in the lack of PR fakeclaims - any chain of logic is going to be super-tenuous - and talking about it with PRs might give scum some info we'd rather they didn't have.

If anyone decides at this point to change their claims, they should be auto-lynched.

[DeasVail]

1. Why ask?
2. His chances of being scum are less than people not potentially tracked.
Who's your second most suspect?
Boring can be sorted tomorrow after PRs are known.

It was a rhetorical question.

And 2. I think I already answered to some degree, but I will elaborate. If we're going purely by PR mechanics, then yes, boring would not be the person to lynch, but that's not what the game is about. I think that boring is scum, I think her posting comes from scum, I think the way she has played the game is more likely from scum than from town to a degree that outweighs the decreased likelihood established by a negative track result. I am very hesitant to take an approach of "just sort her out tomorrow" because my prediction is that a negative tracker result would still have the same overly strong sway tomorrow as it seems to be having today. If I absolutely need to, then I will work out who else I would be willing to lynch, but I'm not going to give up on this easily.

[Fishythefish]

If anyone decides at this point to change their claims, they should be auto-lynched.

Sure. That's not what I mean - assuming all the claims are true, I think the discussion on claim strategy could reveal information about which PR is which (and I also think that discussion has little or no value).

[ProHawk]

I would disagree, as it points to scum-personality.

[ProHawk]

Among other things...

[ProHawk]

Just throwing this out there:

The scum decided not to attempt to fake claim a PR, so I think we can conclude that they are not really risk takers.

Just curious, had they fake-claimed a PR, what would your plan have been exactly?

[boring]

Compare Deas's posts today with these games where he was town
viewtopic.php?t=72397&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=63443&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
He's easy, breezy, beautiful DeasVail.

Deas's Scum game: this is the Deas we're seeing.
viewtopic.php?t=62742&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

[boring]

All in all a pretty tough situation to be in as scum, so I would have had the least town-read of the two jump into the PR pool and the most town-read to jump into the VT pool and just wait until it got down to 3p LYLO, but maybe that's just me?

I was thinking that at first, but we stand to lose too much now from a real PR's continued secrecy. I'm sure everyone here realizes that. Mutant's little gambit was one thing. Letting us be dead-wrong all day (and possibly all the way to a town loss) is another.

Also, the only player left that I would think capable of being so bold as to fake claim in a massclaim is Fitz. But his enthusiasm would have been hard to fake. He was so excited to tell us he was PR and do the three option thingy.

[boring]

I am not going to be giving up on this easily, but I am aware that I'm not getting much traction here.

If I absolutely need to, then I will work out who else I would be willing to lynch, but I'm not going to give up on this easily.

You're not going to "give up on this" until you have no choice but to vote Kelbris. Prohawk is off the table until we know which of mutant's results are true, and you've no chance against Fishy right now in public opinion.

Your best strategy would have been to come in today with a hard bus on Kelbris. Instead, you're stuck pretending to scum read me.

[kelbris]

Well, I am not gonna change my claim, since I am honestly a VT. I would also like to say, how is it reaching for suspecting someone that makes posts like #1484 and #1486 are rushing for a lynch on me? I will post my reads (based on all days) ASAP. However my opinion on ProHawk being scum will not change, based on what his slot has done in the past during this game. Finally, keep in mind that there are 2 scum, meaning that just because one of them may not have gone anywhere, does NOT mean they are inno.

[ProHawk]

I didn't even vote you rofl, might be hard to get you lynched without a vote...

[Fishythefish]

Compare Deas's posts today with these games where he was town
viewtopic.php?t=72397&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=63443&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
He's easy, breezy, beautiful DeasVail.

Deas's Scum game: this is the Deas we're seeing.
viewtopic.php?t=62742&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

This is good stuff, actually. That scum game is way more analytical and cold than the town ones, and matches DV here better.

I don't particularly like kelbris's play today; I think kelbris is trying to survive and say stuff rather than hunt scum. But I'm more confident in a
VOTE: DeasVail

It may turn out to be wishful thinking, but I'm kind of feeling we've nailed both the scum here.

[havingfitz]

But his enthusiasm would have been hard to fake.

Any perceived enthusiasm was unintentional.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Kelbris

I'm now scum for him...

Who would be your alternate to a kelbris lynch?

[ProHawk]

Lemme check interactions and get back to you