Open 701: Pick Yer Power X/Y Game Over!

[Chip Butty]

Texcat - 2
Northsidegal - 3
Assemblerotws - 4
CommKnight - 6
Mutantdevle - 8

MisaTange - 30 - Town

CityElectric - 5
Chip Butty - 5
Wilky - 7
Creature - 7
Lalendra - 7
Aster - 1

Pisskop - 1 - Town

Viomi - 1

I have an idea of narrowing down scum, but it's completely gut for now and it's something maybe only I would do. But it's interesting scum didn't aim at someone who was higher up on the list for a better chance to kill a PR. My theory? Scum in the top 5 people. They don't want to narrow it down for some reason but still want to kill the mid-tier players to snipe out any PRs that got through.

I'm thinking we look more into Chip and City today. 5 is a sweet spot for scum to pick a number. So my bet? 1 town, 1 scum, right there.

The problem is, there's 3 scum. If 1 is above Misa, 2 are below Misa. Let the potential PRs worry about sorting each other, we need to take out the first two scum first.

The question is: Chip or City. Which one of those two is scum?

My guess would be Chip.

But I think the Viomi lynch is better. I think there is a scum among the people who picked 1, and I think that's much more likely than among the people who picked 5. The question should be: Viomi or Aster. And the answer is Viomi.

Honestly, I can roll with this, but I have high suspicion one of the 5's is scum.

VOTE: Viomi - A 1, buddying, gunning for the PRs by aiming higher than Misa. They can die.

@Chip

1.) I know my alignment.
2.) It plays into a theory I have where 1, 3, 5 are likely the numbers scum chose. Maybe it's part OCD on my end, but it does seem likely scum wouldn't just pick like 1,2,3 or something cheesy like that. But they also wouldn't be completely random. Because their goal is to get all 3 of them to be PRs. Which means they're more likely to pick a number that would get them closer to that goal.
3.) The number 5. What townie would pick it? (Obviously one did pick it though), it's just as number that rings "Possible 2nd/3rd in order if all the townies pick the first 4 numbers".

@CT. What do you make of this gunk? It looks bogus to me. In fact:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Comm

[Chip Butty]

All this '5 is scummy but 6 is fine' stuff is pure horseshit, and CK has been full of it.

[Chip Butty]

It's just calculated to give him a pseudo reason for attacking people.

[Lalendra]

Prod received. Won't have time to read/catch up until later today or tomorrow.

[Creature]

Scum: texcat

Curious on this read.

[CommKnight]

I'm still laughing, I explained it out and people still don't understand it. I'm sure scum figured it out by now. Also LOL at Viomi's scum reads ALL being in the top 5 drafting order, get lynched scum.

[Creature]

What do you think about Lalendra and CityElectric?

[CityElectric]

Little prod dodge, thought I'd be able to get back to the game today, but I can't. Will try and put something in tomorrow.

[Assemblerotws]

I believe CT's reads on Viomi.
Not sure whether Comm is town or scum.

[mutantdevle]

Also welcome @CheekyTeeky.

You might want to take into consideration the actions of Wilky who has caused your slot to gain some heat here and there, but for the most part, it's early enough in the game for me to consider what you bring as fresh. Try to rationalise what you can that wilky said but don't try to justify everything he did because that just looks scummy.

Coaching?

What do you mean by coaching? I’ll reply to your other posts tomorrow.

Again, you have had plenty of opportunities to reply to this since I asked this question yet you are intent on ignoring me. Can you not even explain a simple word choice when asked?

Also, I wasn't implying you're not being serious, I'm implying you might well be scum. Then again, you seem like the easy mislynch type, of which we seem to have several in this game.

So you are ignoring me because you think I

might

be scum? I don't buy it. You don't ignore Viomi yet you scum read her a lot more than you do me. Sure you don't answer her questions either, but you at least acknowledge them. Furthermore, if you are genuinely ignoring me because I am scum, then what an arrogant a stupid thing to do. The only time you should ever discredit an opinion is if the player has flipped scum. But even then, their opinion may still be useful to figure out who the other scum are. Surely you cannot be so reckless and arrogant to believe that your opinions are guaranteed to be right and hence ignore all those that explore other ideas. Ignoring calls for you to explain your actions is one hell of an anti-town action.

Chip butty wtf...

So you're not answering me because you don't think I'm being serious? Well fun fact, I am being serious. Now we've established that, answer the damn question.

To specify, that question is "why are you voting Viomi"?

Because the answer is either, you are scum, it's OMGUS or you have yet to explain. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here and assuming you just have yet to explain. But the longer you put off doing so, the scummier you look.

It's pretty obvious if you just read the pages leading up to and including my vote post.

So... OMGUS? Either that or because Viomi buddied you. If neither of those are the reason then it is not 'obvious' and you need to explain yourself. An OMGUS vote would warrant an unvote since it's not really a valid reason to vote someone and if you are voting for Viomi purely out of the buddying fiasco then that is both sheeping and not a valid reason to feel so passionately that someone is scum.

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Viomi page 6 bookmark.

I literally whispered to myself "are you fucking kidding me?" when I saw this post. T'was such a relief to see that your slot had already been voting for Viomi. Please don't scare me like that again

It'd probably be best if you weren't so carefree with your votes in the future but at least no damage was done. I'm glad I'm not the only one that saw scum in Viomi so early in the game.

[mutantdevle]

Ok page 8 skim reads:

mutantdevle
CityElectric
CommKnight
Creature

Chip Butty
northsidegal
Assemblerotws
texcat

Aster
Viomi
Lalendra


I'll bbl.

I'm assuming this is formatted as town, null, scum? Clarification here would be appreciated here but it's not something I'm concerned with pursuing at this stage.

Btw, how far are you through reading every page? Reads are nice but I'd prefer to see your more accurate and up-to-date reads.

[mutantdevle]

mutantdevle, you know what I find funny? You seem to agree with me that people should be giving their reasoning as to why they think I'm scum, and yet.. You aren't? You've clearly said I'm a scumread of yours and that you'd like to hammer me at some point, yet you haven't given a single actual reason. Just that my posts "seem scummy". So as to not be seen as a hypocritical scumfuck, why don't you give me a good case?

And did you read Lalendra's "case"? You think those inane points actually warrant a response?

I find not giving proper reasons in the first place to be more sheepy than it is scummy. What is scummy though, is when I ask someone to elaborate on their opinions but fail to do so. I would accept your statement that I am being hypocritical as true if I had ignored calls for me to explain my views on you (or anyone) in the past. But as this is the first time I've been asked to elaborate, I am not being hypocritical as I have every intention to do so.

As for Lalendra's case, I do think they warrant a response. Especially since you acknowledge that there are some points that you haven't addressed if only 'most' of them you have refuted before the points were made. I appreciate that you have now answered Lalendra's concerns. It will be interesting to see how she responds. At the very least, if she still considers you scum, then she'd have to go back, read and analyse your more recent posts to continue her case. This is both what you seem to want and would be useful for reading each of you.


Okay, so I originally made points against you back on day 1 in posts 214, 224 and 272 (context required for 272). I still agree with much of what I said there. In short, my scum read on you is based on how weak and sheepy your position was on my wagon, your general consistent hypocrisy, your non-constructive aggression and the effort it takes to get some things out of you. If you need me to elaborate on these accusations then I will happily do so but you'd have to wait until tomorrow for that post. You are no longer my top scum read though. This is because of a combination of you seeming a little more towny lately and Chip just being scummy as shit. I do still view you as scummier than CommKnight though, who's silence seems to be working to diffuse the pressure that came onto her.

[mutantdevle]

I believe CT's reads on Viomi.

I'm guessing that I'm probably not going to get much more out of you than this. Okay. But if you ever try to disagree with something CT had said about Viomi before post 883 was made then you are going to be highly considered scum to me.

[mutantdevle]

For the record, I have full intent to hammer. But only after I am satisfied with those on the wagon and only after I have finished my spreadsheet of past PYP meta.

Bad scum. You don't declare intent until you're ready for a claim. Declare intent once you're satisfied with those on my wagon and done with your spreadsheet shit.

Fear not my dear for I have every intention of declaring that I am satisfied with everyone on your wagon and have finished my spreadsheet before I place a hammering vote on you. And for the record, that would not be with the purpose of wanting a claim from you; you almost definitely have nothing to claim. The purpose of this warning would be to give people time to unvote if they think you should not be lynched yet or for whatever reason. Additionally, if my vote is not the hammer, my warning will be my vote and someone else can hammer.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Vote Count 2.5

CommKnight (4) - Aster, Creature, Viomi, Chip Butty
Creature (1) - northsidegal
northsidegal -
Aster -
texcat -
Viomi (4) - Lalendra, texcat, Commknight, Assemblerotws,
mutantdevle -
Chip Butty (1) - mutantdevle
Lalendra -
CheekyTeeky -
CityElectric -
Assemblerotws -

Not Voting: City Electric, CheekyTeeky,

With 12 Alive. Takes 7 To Lynch. 6 To No Lynch.
Deadline Timer (expired on 2017-12-22 07:00:00)

[/color][/b]

[CheekyTeeky]

Btw, how far are you through reading every page? Reads are nice but I'd prefer to see your more accurate and up-to-date reads.

Could you please give a readslist - no justification needed at this point I just want to see where you're placing everyone at this point.

[CheekyTeeky]

VOTE: Viomi page 6 bookmark.

I literally whispered to myself "are you fucking kidding me?" when I saw this post. T'was such a relief to see that your slot had already been voting for Viomi. Please don't scare me like that again

It'd probably be best if you weren't so carefree with your votes in the future but at least no damage was done. I'm glad I'm not the only one that saw scum in Viomi so early in the game.

What the point of this post? I only see the intention to look townie. You're not asking for any info or giving an opinion that trys to sort me.

[CheekyTeeky]

Texcat - 2
Northsidegal - 3
Assemblerotws - 4
CommKnight - 6
Mutantdevle - 8

MisaTange - 30 - Town

CityElectric - 5
Chip Butty - 5
Wilky - 7
Creature - 7
Lalendra - 7
Aster - 1

Pisskop - 1 - Town

Viomi - 1

I have an idea of narrowing down scum, but it's completely gut for now and it's something maybe only I would do. But it's interesting scum didn't aim at someone who was higher up on the list for a better chance to kill a PR. My theory? Scum in the top 5 people. They don't want to narrow it down for some reason but still want to kill the mid-tier players to snipe out any PRs that got through.

I'm thinking we look more into Chip and City today. 5 is a sweet spot for scum to pick a number. So my bet? 1 town, 1 scum, right there.

The problem is, there's 3 scum. If 1 is above Misa, 2 are below Misa. Let the potential PRs worry about sorting each other, we need to take out the first two scum first.

The question is: Chip or City. Which one of those two is scum?

My guess would be Chip.

But I think the Viomi lynch is better. I think there is a scum among the people who picked 1, and I think that's much more likely than among the people who picked 5. The question should be: Viomi or Aster. And the answer is Viomi.

Honestly, I can roll with this, but I have high suspicion one of the 5's is scum.

VOTE: Viomi - A 1, buddying, gunning for the PRs by aiming higher than Misa. They can die.

@Chip

1.) I know my alignment.
2.) It plays into a theory I have where 1, 3, 5 are likely the numbers scum chose. Maybe it's part OCD on my end, but it does seem likely scum wouldn't just pick like 1,2,3 or something cheesy like that. But they also wouldn't be completely random. Because their goal is to get all 3 of them to be PRs. Which means they're more likely to pick a number that would get them closer to that goal.
3.) The number 5. What townie would pick it? (Obviously one did pick it though), it's just as number that rings "Possible 2nd/3rd in order if all the townies pick the first 4 numbers".

@CT. What do you make of this gunk? It looks bogus to me. In fact:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Comm

You could be onto something here. I'll have a look at his ISO and get back to you.

[Aster]

I am starting to get seriously agitated by Chip's continuous dodging of mutant's questions. I was kinda considering to switch my vote, but CommKnight has started agitating me even more in his latest post:

There are 8 possible PRs existing

Texcat - 2 (8/8 = 100% chance)
Northsidegal - 3 (7/8 = 87.5% chance)
Assemblerotws - 4 (6/8 = 75% chance)
CommKnight - 6 (5/8 = 62.5% chance)
Mutantdevle - 8 (4/8 = 50% chance)
MisaTange - 30 (We know they landed VT)
CityElectric - 5 (3/8 = 37.5% chance)
Chip Butty - 5 (2/8 = 25% chance)
Wilky - 7 (1/8 = 12.5% chance)
Creature - 7
Lalendra - 7
Aster - 1
Pisskop - 1 (Confirmed VT)
Viomi - 1

Those percentages assume that the one above them landed an unclaimed PR. For each one failed, the person below them gets a better chance of landing a PR during the draft).

Great, at least you acknowledge that those percentages only hold when everyone above then hits their powerrole, which will most probably not be the case. Ergo, the probabilities you posted are bullshit.

If we assume that every player independently uniformly chooses one out the 8 available slots, then the probability that player n+1 lands a powerrole can be computed as (7/8)ⁿ. I can prove this claim, but it'd involve advanced mathematics so I suppose nobody is interested. I converted this into numerical results for your convenience:

• Texcat - 2 (100% chance)
  
• Northsidegal - 3 (87.5% chance)
  
• Assemblerotws - 4 (76.6% chance)
  
• CommKnight - 6 (67.0% chance)
  
• Mutantdevle - 8 (58.6% chance)
  
• MisaTange - 30 (VT, 0% chance)
  
• CityElectric - 5 (51.3% chance)
  
• Chip Butty - 5 (44.9% chance)
  
• Wilky - 7 (39.3% chance)
  
• Creature - 7 (34.4% chance)
  
• Lalendra - 7 (30.1% chance)
  
• Aster - 1 (26.3% chance)
  
• Pisskop - 1 (VT, 0% chance)
  
• Viomi - 1 (23.0% chance)

Of course, the above list of probabilities is in practice bullshit as well because my assumptions didn't factor in any of the following:

• The information given by the host that switching the order of the numbers 1 and 7 would have no impact on the role distribution;
  
• The fact that the mafia collaborate on their role choice;
  
• The fact that players do not uniformly choose slots; the higher players are more likely to go for popular slots while the lower ranked players will probably go for the weaker ones.

All in all, I don't think I can make an accurate estimate for the chance that players have powerroles without doing extensive analysis of past games, which I don't feel like doing. At any rate, I think that the players lower on the list actually have a higher probability of having powerroles than my list suggests; I just don't know how much higher.

I can't blame CommKnight for not being able to properly find out the probabilities of players having powerroles. What I however do blame CommKnight for is taking his blatantly wrong list of "probability player X has powerrole" which blatantly underestimate the probabilities of low-order players having powerroles and using it to support his motion to lynch low-order players.

Like, seriously. When you suggest that there is zero chance that anyone below wilky has a powerrole, you should realise how far off the mark you are and that your list does not give an even remotely fair representation of the truth.

So you may be saying "Cool Comm, but who cares?" Well, Mutant and above (the top 5) have over a 50% chance of landing a PR. 2 of which ARE town with probably 4 of us being town and 1 being scum. So why avoid the top 5? You're going fucking hit a town PR which might end up being jailkeeper or doctor or even the bloody cop.

I'm not pushing easy lynches. I'm pushing slots I think are scum that

virtually have 0 chance of being a town PR

. I'm confident there's 2 scum in the 5's and below in drafting order. 1, 5, 7. Those are the 3 numbers picked more than once and successfully lynching a scummy in ANY of those numbers pretty much clears everyone else who chose that number. So not only am I avoiding potential town PRs, I'm essentially pushing for the ability to clear multiple people based on getting a successful scum flip or two.

And yet you still present your list as evidence to support your agenda with only the side remark that "Those percentages assume that the one above them landed an unclaimed PR." without any further consideration to the amount of bias this introduces.

You even further reinforce your point by stating again that the lower roles have virtually 0 chance of having power roles. That statement really makes it look like you're just trying to get us to ignore the flaws in your analysis and ignore the possibility of having low-order powerroles.

Tl;dr:

CommKnight is trying to deceive town for his own agenda. Deceiving town is both antitown and scummy. My vote stays where it is.

[CheekyTeeky]

I'm still laughing, I explained it out and people still don't understand it. I'm sure scum figured it out by now. Also LOL at Viomi's scum reads ALL being in the top 5 drafting order, get lynched scum.

Hey Comm. I've read your ISO it's a flip floppy one for me which usually means the person is town. I do see you game solving and being firm on your SRs but I don't see you give reasons for your SRs outside of setup spec PoE. I like that you're trying to solve the game but I dislike that you're relying heavily on Setup to do it. It would be nice to see you assess game content of people you're SR.

Could you sum up in a sentence or two why you think Chip, Creature and Aster are scum?

I'll look into Chip next.

[Creature]

I don't see the need to use math.

Otherwise I could say everybody IMPOV has ~27% chance of being scum.

[Aster]

I don't see the need to use math.

Otherwise I could say everybody IMPOV has ~27% chance of being scum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman

But actually, you know what? Fine. Go ahead and don't use math. But while you're not using math, at least don't pretend you are and don't use intentionally incorrect math to support obviously false statements. If you can follow that last part, you'll be far ahead of CommKnight.

[Chip Butty]

Aster is looking towny these days. Creature is looking more towny than earlier. Still wondering why MT ate the n1 bullet.

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: Viomi page 6 bookmark.

I literally whispered to myself "are you fucking kidding me?" when I saw this post. T'was such a relief to see that your slot had already been voting for Viomi. Please don't scare me like that again

It'd probably be best if you weren't so carefree with your votes in the future but at least no damage was done. I'm glad I'm not the only one that saw scum in Viomi so early in the game.

Maybe it's a playstyle thing, but this makes me want to lynch you.