Open 701: Pick Yer Power X/Y Game Over!

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Vote Count 2.6

CommKnight (3) - Aster, Viomi, Chip Butty,
Creature (1) - northsidegal
northsidegal -
Aster -
texcat -
Viomi (3) - Lalendra, texcat, Commknight,
mutantdevle -
Chip Butty (1) - mutantdevle
Lalendra -
CheekyTeeky (1) - Assemblerotws,
CityElectric -
Assemblerotws (1) - CheekyTeeky,

Not Voting: City Electric, Creature

With 12 Alive. Takes 7 To Lynch. 6 To No Lynch.
Deadline Timer (expired on 2017-12-22 07:00:00)

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[mutantdevle]

So I've finished my spreadsheet. There are 12 completed pick your power games and I've salvaged as much relevant data from them as I can. But now I'm making different tables that list statistics based on this data. This is so that I don't have to calculate things in the moment when I am curious about a certain probability. For example, I have created a table over how frequently each number is picked and how frequently they are picked by each alignment. If we were to go on player's draft numbers

alone

, then this is the probability each player still alive would be scum:


mutantdevle: 33.33%
CommKnight: 26.67%
Aster: 25.93%
Viomi: 25.93%
texcat: 21.05%
northsidegal: 20%
Chip Butty: 16.67%
CityElectric: 16.67%
Lalendra: 10%
CheekyTeeky: 10%
Creature: 10%
Assemblerotws: 6.9%


Obviously, the number chosen alone would be a terrible reason to scum read someone. But if you are ever split between 2 people to either lynch or use a night action on then you could always look at who has the highest percentage of being scum. (in before this advice gets me killed since I chose the scummiest number).


Another fun fact: we have a 58% chance of winning

[northsidegal]

@mod v/la until friday, having internet issues

sorry everyone

[texcat]

I'll hammer Viomi and Comm if push went to shove today. I think Viomi's reactions to me looking elsewhere are very interesting but are just pre-flip associations at this point. It will be easier to nail her tomorrow after flips and if I'm alive. Also interesting is how quiet everyone was about the Viomi wagon but now that I'm pushing above there's a lot more interest in the thread. My direction feels promising.

This post feels like the lead up to you voting me lol. I've had this scenario many times.

Are you asking me to get back on Viomi?

Sure, I'd love for you to vote Viomi. I think she's scum.

Not sure about everyone, but one reason I was quiet about the Viomi lynch was that I was tired of her calling everyone stupid morons and yelling about reading her posts.

I might consider voting you if you insist on lynching Assemble when we have much scummier options.

[CommKnight]

3.) I'll say this: The role I got, I am almost certain the 3 people above me are town. Because this role pair would've been one of the FIRST picks for scum and I successfully denied them the role.

And yet you voted for Assembler, who is above you and therefore almost certainly town, just so you could prove your point?

Yes. If town is stupid in my games, I WILL do something to prove my point so that we can get back on track and lynch scum. I don't carry vindictive agendas outside of a game so even if town is stupid one game, I won't hold it against anyone in the next game because it's all in-game banter/heat.

If you think I'll hold punches, you really do have a bad read of me.

[CommKnight]

So I've finished my spreadsheet. There are 12 completed pick your power games and I've salvaged as much relevant data from them as I can. But now I'm making different tables that list statistics based on this data. This is so that I don't have to calculate things in the moment when I am curious about a certain probability. For example, I have created a table over how frequently each number is picked and how frequently they are picked by each alignment. If we were to go on player's draft numbers

alone

, then this is the probability each player still alive would be scum:


mutantdevle: 33.33%
CommKnight: 26.67%
Aster: 25.93%
Viomi: 25.93%
texcat: 21.05%
northsidegal: 20%
Chip Butty: 16.67%
CityElectric: 16.67%
Lalendra: 10%
CheekyTeeky: 10%
Creature: 10%
Assemblerotws: 6.9%


Obviously, the number chosen alone would be a terrible reason to scum read someone. But if you are ever split between 2 people to either lynch or use a night action on then you could always look at who has the highest percentage of being scum. (in before this advice gets me killed since I chose the scummiest number).


Another fun fact: we have a 58% chance of winning

Shit like this is why I'm slowly sliding Mutant up the scale from scum -> town. He had a super bad early game that I hard SR'd him for. But he's been getting better. Also LOL at him and myself being the most likely scum numbers. But OH LOOK, Aster and Viomi is right below us tied for 3rd. I wonder which of the two is scum, because they've both been scummy, it'd be nice to be able to clear one of them.

Also Assembler has the lowest percent chance? Shit. Guess Cheeky's push is way off base.

Anyway, what do you think about Cheeky? I'd like to assume she's town, but her game so far has been pushing my read away from that. She's even higher on my list than Aster and Viomi which is pretty hard at this point in the game.

[Aster]

3.) I'll say this: The role I got, I am almost certain the 3 people above me are town. Because this role pair would've been one of the FIRST picks for scum and I successfully denied them the role.

And yet you voted for Assembler, who is above you and therefore almost certainly town, just so you could prove your point?

Yes. If town is stupid in my games, I WILL do something to prove my point so that we can get back on track and lynch scum. I don't carry vindictive agendas outside of a game so even if town is stupid one game, I won't hold it against anyone in the next game because it's all in-game banter/heat.

If you think I'll hold punches, you really do have a bad read of me.

In other words: "Muh town is not listening to me and doing stupid things! I should punch town in the face to prove my point! That'll show them how right I am!"

Did you ever realise how much you sound like an abusive jerk? I hope you don't behave like this in real life.

I'm also noticing a pretty strong correlation between how scummy/antitown you think somebody is and the amount in which that somebody goes against your orders. Coincidence?

Anyway, what do you think about Cheeky? I'd like to assume she's town, but her game so far has been pushing my read away from that. She's even higher on my list than Aster and Viomi which is pretty hard at this point in the game.

If she's higher than even

me

, I guess she must be

really

scummy. Of course, that's understandable as she voted you, townreads me, and even defended herself against a bunch of your accusations. It'd certainly be nice if somebody else gave you some

real

arguments against her so you don't have to make them up yourself.

But anyway, can you explain why you would even want to assume such a scummy person is town?

[CheekyTeeky]

Also Assembler has the lowest percent chance? Shit. Guess Cheeky's push is way off base.

Let's get me closer then eh?

VOTE: CommKnight

Fixed Tag - Elmo

[CheekyTeeky]

Aww VOTE: CommKnight

[CheekyTeeky]

Oh thanks mod, also Comm is voting me, not assemble.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Vote Count 2.7

CommKnight (4) - Aster, Viomi, Chip Butty, CheekyTeeky,
Creature (1) - northsidegal
northsidegal -
Aster -
texcat -
Viomi (3) - Lalendra, texcat, Assemblerotws,
mutantdevle -
Chip Butty (1) - mutantdevle
Lalendra -
CheekyTeeky (1) - Commknight,
CityElectric -
Assemblerotws -

Not Voting: City Electric, Creature

With 12 Alive. Takes 7 To Lynch. 6 To No Lynch.
Deadline Timer (expired on 2017-12-22 07:00:00)

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[CityElectric]

Holy shit finals are over I'm freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Anyway, reads.

Wilky was the only slot I relatively confidently townread day 1 and Cheeky hasn't really done anything to change that. I'm also throwing tex, north and lalendra on the tentative town pile. Chip can also go on there as well.

Aster has quite a lot of posts with a lot of math in them which I don't quite understand. There is also a lot of reasoning and a lot of other, well, stuff in there. I like the reasoning, and there seems to be quite some scumhunting/game solving in there, but, on a reread, I'm feeling a bit uneasy about his reaction to Pisskop on day 1 and I can't quite put my finger on why that is. Town read, but with some uneasy feelings.

Mutant, after all this time, still gives me a headache. Partially because his ISO feels longer than the great wall of China, and partially because I keep flip-flopping on my read on him. His earlygame was reeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaally scummy, but his later posts weren't quite so much. Therefore, null, with a very slight townlean.

Wasn't a huge fan of Assembler day 1, so far there hasn't been a lot coming out of that slot to change my opinion on that. Null, leaning scum.

I'm not a huge fan of Viomi's reactions upon being pushed. There's a whole lot of 'read my posts' and namecalling in there, instead of making an effort to really defend herself. Likely scum.

I crazy dislike how Creature has been dancing around the Comm wagon all day. First he's calling for a Comm wagon for days, then he only hops on the wagon when someone else has already voted for Comm and then the moment the wagon starts to get somewhere, he hops back off with 'I don't feel like it anymore'. There's overall a lot of saying 'I want to lynch/pressure this player' and fairly little action towards actually doing so in Creature's posts. @Creature: is the reason you hopped off because you thought he was softing a PR, or because there legitimately was something town about the way he reacted to being pressured?

Comm seems super scummy to me for reasons others have already pointed out. Adding that to his willingness to hammer mutant that early on day 1, which I already didn't like, and we've got quite the solid scumread here.

In terms of lynching today, I'd be okay with Creature, Viomi or Comm. Comm is currently my strongest scumread, so:

VOTE: CommKnight

[Creature]

First because he was softing then because he started towning up.

[Creature]

I crazy dislike how Creature has been dancing

You shouldn't look for scum around the people that are dancing. You should look for scum around the people shily sitting against the wall away from the center of attention.

[Lalendra]

Ugh, I would really rather lynch Viomi than Comm. But I will vote Comm if needed to avoid a no-lynch.

[CityElectric]

You should look for scum around the people shily sitting against the wall away from the center of attention.

Again, if that's how you feel, you might as well start now by putting your vote/questions/cases where your mouth is. If you're so sure there's scum in that area, start pressuring them, ask questions, vote them, but do something more than 'I say they are scum now please wagon'.

[CityElectric]

You should look for scum around the people shily sitting against the wall away from the center of attention.

Again, if that's how you feel, you might as well start now by putting your vote/questions/cases where your mouth is. If you're so sure there's scum in that area, start pressuring them, ask questions, vote them, but do something more than 'I say they are scum now please wagon'.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that your play so far has been super non-committal, which reads more scum to me than town.

Also, 'but what about these other players' isn't a defense.

[Creature]

You should look for scum around the people shily sitting against the wall away from the center of attention.

Again, if that's how you feel, you might as well start now by putting your vote/questions/cases where your mouth is. If you're so sure there's scum in that area, start pressuring them, ask questions, vote them, but do something more than 'I say they are scum now please wagon'.

Like how I've done with CommKnight?

[CommKnight]

CommKnight (5) - Aster, Viomi, Chip Butty, CheekyTeeky, City Electric,
Creature (1) - northsidegal
northsidegal -
Aster -
texcat -
Viomi (3) - Lalendra, texcat, Assemblerotws,
mutantdevle -
Chip Butty (1) - mutantdevle
Lalendra -
CheekyTeeky (1) - Commknight,
CityElectric -
Assemblerotws -

Not Voting: Creature

With 12 Alive. Takes 7 To Lynch. 6 To No Lynch.

Now this is juicy. Either I get hammered and a light is shined upon those I've been saying to look at (oh look, BOTH 5's are on my wagon as well as BOTH 1's with CheekyTeeky).

Not only that, but now with me being a claimed PR, it's going to be pretty bad for them when I flip green. I suggest even if I survive today and die tonight to look at those 5.

Anyway, everyone not voting me = 7 people, so we need this 7 to lynch anyone but me. The options are: Cheeky, Chip, or Viomi. Guess it's majority rules now for this. Honestly, out of Viomi and Aster, I think Aster is the scum in the 1's. But we could go for Chip or Cheeky, I'm like 70% sure both of them are scum. Also City just seems like an unreading townie who's voting wherever.

[CommKnight]

@Mutant, North, Creature, Lale, Tex, & Assemble. If you think I'm town and scum dun-goofed with this wagon. Then help me lynch Cheeky.

[Creature]

I guess I'm gonna be here for the deadline. Not sure if I am up to start another wagon myself as I don't feel very confident anymore.

[Creature]

Still would rather have someone else lynched.

[mutantdevle]

Let's be honest here, CommKnight's actions have been scummy as heck. But anyone who has acknowledged her softclaiming a PR and then now hardclaiming one but is still prepared to lynch them then they are either scum trying to get this lynch over with just to claim "oooh whoops, t'was an accident" afterwards or is completely fucking stupid.

The lynch is staying below Misa's point on the draft order. There's probably scum above her, but we'd be outing our PRs by forcing people to claim.

Want to dispute it? Bring the cop checks to back it up. If not, we continue low on the list and aim for the people who tried to get high in the order pick and failed.

Chances are, we have a cop collecting some alignments before outing,

Maybe it's worth your time to begin considering why I am quiet instead of falling into Creature's "Comm isn't usual Comm" trap. That's all people's argument on me is based on. My activity level or the fact I don't have perfect reads by D2 with 0 scum caught and 0 guilty claims from any existing cops.

So why avoid the top 5? You're going fucking hit a town PR which might end up being jailkeeper or doctor or even the bloody cop.

Well I'm going to sit back here and watch as Cheeky single handedly helps scum out every fucking town PR we have. Because screw cops and what not these days. Obviously don't need them.

Can we not lynch our cop thanks?

[mutantdevle]

I mean, there's no guarantee he is the cop, but I'm pretty fucking certain he is an investigative role. The only investigative role that is commonly scum is the role cop.

Comm, are you prepared to hard claim a specific role? That would really help you out right now. If you think you are going to die tonight anyway then you may as well truthfully claim your role as you literally have nothing to lose by it.

[CommKnight]

Oh look. Mutant is using his brain. He's closer to the target than anyone so far, but to protect other PRs, I'm not hard claiming as my claim would just make my role useless at this point.

Either they need to shoot me tonight or push for my mislynch today. The question is, will they take the risk of shooting me tonight? PGO, Doctor, Watcher, many roles are still possibly in play that would not end well for them.

@Creature, well if you don't want to lynch me, Mutant doesn't want to lynch me, Lale doesn't want to lynch me, we gotta pick someone instead of beating around the bush.