Mini Normal 1963 Mafia PT

[TwoInAMillion]

If Chip shoots Taco then game over.

[implosion]

oh my god i'm an idiot i thought serg was actually saying he was lying okay i am going to make a BIG SERIES OF POSTS after eating food

[implosion]

Big, big mistake from town telling chip to holster tonight if tiam flips scum. This gives us the very alluring option of shooting chip, and letting Serg get another gunsmith result, but at the cost of the town's additional mislynch. Town effectively will have to either pick the correct one scum out of three people or the correct one town out of three people correctly to win (depending on whether Serg gets an innocent or a guilty result), instead of being able to pick either of two correct townies out of 4 people.

[implosion]

(note to self: if two = scum roleblocker implosion's post at the top of this page is super sketchy),

This was intentional :3

[Sephiroth]

Nice.

[Sephiroth]

Kill Serg?

[implosion]

Yeah.

You make the kill in case of any odd fakeclaim shenanigans but it shouldn’t really matter.

[implosion]

Er wait no I think we kill chip

[Sephiroth]

You think? I'm not sure if I'm more worried about the kill or the ability to implicate either of us. I think another result of any sort sinks us.

[implosion]

So this is basically assuming the town is competent/trusts chip, and also assuming chip doesn't shoot tonight since that was the stated plan, but here's how everything likely plays out.

If we kill serg, the gunsmith:

Tomorrow is 2 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed + 1 confirmed vig. They lynch, and they will realize that if they mislynch (or even if they lynch town) that the vig should be shooting that night to put the game back in odds.

Mathematically, this means the town will get three kills (d4 lynch, n4 vig, d5 lynch), each of which they will be making with the knowledge of the previous flip. If they kill both town we win, if they kill both scum we lose. EV-wise, this give us a 50% chance of winning, as these three kills will either be 2town1scum or 2scum1town with equal likelihood. It's a bit tricky to predict what will happen here because it depends on the order of kills but any conceivable town v scum 1v1 in the final day is possible.

If we kill chip, the vig:

Tomorrow is 2 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed + 1 confirmed gunsmith with 1 gunsmith result.

If that gunsmith result is on one of us, town lynches that one of us and we are left in MYLO with 1 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed, and likely skitter just decides between the three and we can directly appeal to her/argue at that point and both of us have pretty solid rhetorical skills so I think this is not a bad situation to be in; the difficult part will be associations, but I think each of us has been careful to leave enough associations that lead away from the other or can be interpreted both ways that we could get through it. It just depends how town interprets things ultimately. I doubt he'll investigate me since he gave me as a townread but he might just because skitter sort of implied that she wants that. If I get guiltied you'll probably have to argue for wave being my partner, if you get guiltied I'll probably have to waver between the two.

If that gunsmith result is on a townie and the town trusts the result, we are left with 2 scum vs 1 unconfirmed, all three of these people arguing that the other pair of them is the scumteam. Town lynches in this group, and if they hit scum then we're left with 1v1 mylo-but-effectively-just-lylo the next day. Of course, it's possible that the town won't trust the result fully because scum doctor is entirely possible in this setup. But if we assume worst case is that they unconditionally trust the gunsmith results, worst case here might be a clear on wavemode. Suddenly you have to argue for a me + Flubber team which is somewhat... ludicrous, as I really made a mistake yesterday by trying to push him and I tried to curtail that near the end of the day. But you can probably make that argument and I can argue for you + flubber just fine. A clear on flubber means I have to argue for you + him and make an awkward turn on Flubber or argue that I think he might be scum doc, all of which I am capable of doing, and you have to argue for me + wavemode which is an entirely plausible team.

EV-wise, either of these scenarios give us a 66% chance of winning: in the first case town has to find the one scum out of three in 4p MYLO, in the second case the town has to lynch the correct two scum out of three from 6p.

I sort of agree that another result effectively does a lot to aid the town's scumhunting. The problem is that keeping the vig alive gives the town an extra mislynch (really a misvig), which is effectively an extra result, and so killing the gunsmith doesn't actually remove the effect of them investigating. They will lynch someone, use the information from that lynch to inform who Chip vigs, and then use both flips to decide who to kill next if the game is still going.

There's also the fact that serg townreads me which is a bit of a boon in and of itself to keeping him alive. Although it also could be to killing him for wifom but shrugshrugshrug.


Basically I think the increased EV is just the deciding factor here.

[implosion]

(tl;dr I don't think we actually gain anything from killing serg instead of chip, unless chip decides to do the smart thing and disobey orders and shoot here.)

[Sephiroth]

I think my main issue is that its completely possible serg investigates wavemode and I think that completely screws us. There is a very easy and strong argument to be made for wave being partners with TIAM and chip also suspects wave over me. Keeping chip alive and killing Serg creates a higher possibility that we mislynch wavemode tomorrow. Serg also believes wave to be scum but that makes me think that he would DEFINITELY investigate wave and put us in a shit spot tomorrow. I dunno, does any of that make sense?

Skitter, Serg, Wave confirmed town. Skitter and Wave suspect me and you the most. I am v. afraid of wave confirmed town come tomorrow, and equally concerned with either of us confirmed scum.

[implosion]

Keeping chip alive and killing Serg creates a higher possibility that we mislynch wavemode tomorrow.

Think about it this way - the situation if we manage to mislynch wavemode after killing serg is effectively the same as the situation if we kill chip and wave gets innoed. In both cases, the town is left having to kill both of us before Flubber. The only difference is whether they get to vig then lynch or lynch then lynch.

The other differences are only rhetorical, i.e. it might be a bad thing to have conftown-wave arguing loudly rather than just being mislynched since he thinks we're both scum.

[implosion]

We

can

also argue wave is scum doc if he gets innoed if we need to.

[Sephiroth]

Alright, you convinced me. I'll send in Chip.

[Sephiroth]

Well that's pretty good I guess. Vig down, wave *allegedly* thinks youre town (I suspect a gotcha there somewhere) and serg investigated Flub despite what he claimed earlier.

[implosion]

wave thinks I'm town because of my fake townslip.

I think the gotcha is in him asking if you're still claiming VT. Scum has effectively 0 power roles, so town having gunsmith + vig + roleblocker + fbi agent seems just about right for balance.

[implosion]

(as in, wave is almost certainly actually a VT and is probably getting at nothing meaningful with his rhetoric).

I *think* the most likely result today is that I go down. I am not sure if I'll be able to make skitter come around. If I go down then it's basically you v wavemode decided by flubber+skitter so don't be afraid to bus. Just do whatever you can at this point to make yourself look town or make it look like if i am scum then i must be scum with wavemode. Or w/e. I'm not sure if strong distancing is the right move. Of course the most obvious stance for you to take is just that you trust the result on flubber and to consistently equally push me and wavemode.

[implosion]

It's actually also possible that wave will trust the townslip over the gunsmith result. Which would be fantastic. But I won't count on it.

[implosion]

Basically the only real conscious thing I'm doing right now is I'm avoiding bringing up the townslip because I want wave to explain it first and I don't want it to look like I realize what he's talking about.

Honestly if anyone in this game had ever played with me at this point I would be so so so obvious scum eurgghgh.

[Sephiroth]

Pretty sure we can turn this claim into a mislynch on Wave tbh, that's not a very believable claim IMO. I don't think I'm going to try to claim I was faking, just vote for wavemode.

[implosion]

I think it's probably better for you to point this out than for me to, since you're the direct counter:

wavemode asked to be investigated by the gunsmith yesterday. He has literally zero fucking reason to do that if he's really a town vanilla cop (who will show up as having a gun). He has motivation to do it as mafia because it just looks townish to ask to be investigated, but if he were really town and he had gotten investigated last night there's no way in hell he'd think we'd believe his claim.

(at least, that's vaguely what I would argue. I can bring it up myself if it's not something you'd have noticed. My guess is just that he doesn't know that vanilla cop will show as having a gun but if he says that you can argue that he should definitely have had that thought when he saw the gunsmith claim, etc.)

[Sephiroth]

Thats a good point, and i just made it, but I think we're still fucked. I'm a little annoyed because I know I pretty much lost it with my play after the TIAM quickhammered. I wish he'd never quickhammered and that i hadn't come in so confident but i suppose I can claim I'm bad at setup speculation (which is true). I dunno. I'm hoping I can get in Skitters ear.

[Sephiroth]

This point combined with the nonsensical reason for stopping the crumb gives me hope. I'm not sure where Skitter stands on this.

[implosion]

Despite that, I think there's def one scum and one townie between Wave/Seph, and I don't really think scum!VC!wave and townie!PR!seph makes sense in this specific context.

Like if scum!VC!wave gets a 'not vanilla' result on townie!PR!Seph, I feel like Seph would just claim PR, but didn't.

I'm pretty sure I believe the claim though, which leads me to believe town!VC!wave and scum!PR!Seph is the universe we're living in.

Idk why skitter assumes that scum!VC!wave would be telling the truth about his results.

(more things for you to say though i'm sure you don't need me to tell you them >.>)

I sort of just hope that these proceedings make people magically start conceiving the game as me + wavemode vs you + flubber. I think I'm gonna heavily advocate your lynch. I think it's our best chance? I heavily advocate your lynch and I get lynched and you shoot serg and then suddenly Flubber has as much power as skitter, and flubber disbelieves wavemode's claim.'

I think I actually do want to get lynched here though X_X if you do then it's gonna be a lot harder for me to convince skitter+wave that Flub is scum than it would be for you to convince skitter+flub that wave is scum i think.